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Low	
  Signal	
  Detec/on	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
©	
  North	
  Delta	
  College	
  2015	
  	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   1	
  
2	
   CASE	
   STUDIES	
   ON	
   LOGISTICS	
   AND	
   ITS	
  
BOTTLENECKS	
  
INTRODUCTION	
  
Low	
  Signal	
  Detec/on	
  is	
  concerned	
  about	
  describing	
  key	
  crisis	
  situa/ons	
  occurring	
  in	
  
the	
  art	
  of	
  the	
  Logis/cian.	
  Logis/cs	
  generally	
  deals	
  with	
  the	
  moving	
  of	
  the	
  physical	
  
goods	
  necessary	
  to	
  fulfil	
  an	
  organisa/on’s	
  needs.	
  As	
  such	
  it	
  has	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  oldest	
  
corpus	
  of	
  techniques	
  in	
  any	
  branch	
  of	
  business	
  management.	
  
	
  	
  
We	
  will	
  present	
  2	
  case	
  studies	
  showing	
  a	
  breakdown	
  origina/ng	
  in	
  a	
  poor	
  or	
  
incomplete	
  logis/cs	
  set	
  up	
  and	
  demonstrate	
  how	
  to	
  solve	
  them.	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  reader	
  will	
  get	
  the	
  tools	
  to	
  re-­‐ques/on	
  his	
  own	
  logis/cs	
  needs.	
  
	
  	
  
So,	
  Welcome,	
  Ladies	
  and	
  Gentlemen	
  to	
  Low	
  Signal	
  Detec/on,	
  where	
  your	
  Logis/cs	
  
and	
  Supply-­‐Chain	
  Understanding	
  will	
  be	
  taken	
  to	
  new	
  dimensions	
  and	
  your	
  
business	
  imagina/on	
  into	
  a	
  mind-­‐blowing	
  journey.	
  	
  
.	
  	
  
	
  Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   2	
  
SUMMARY	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   3	
  
Part	
  1:	
  What	
  is	
  Logis/cs	
  all	
  about?	
  
A)  Defini/on	
  of	
  Logis/cs	
  
B)  Logis/cs	
  in	
  Businesses	
  
C)  Logis/cs	
  MoYos	
  
	
  
Part	
  2:	
  Case	
  Study	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  
A)  The	
  Situa/on	
  
B)  An	
  Adventure	
  
C)  The	
  Crisis	
  
D)  Consequences	
  
E)  How	
  this	
  could	
  have	
  been	
  solved	
  
	
  
Part	
  3:	
  Case	
  Study	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
A)  The	
  Situa/on	
  
B)  Normal	
  Daily	
  Rou/ne	
  
C)  The	
  Crisis	
  
D)  Consequences	
  
E)  How	
  this	
  could	
  have	
  been	
  solved	
  
	
  
Final	
  Statement	
  
PART	
  1:	
  WHAT	
  IS	
  LOGISTICS	
  ALL	
  ABOUT?	
  
	
  
Logis/cs	
   is	
   the	
   art	
   of	
   displacing	
   products,	
   people	
   or	
   equipment	
   to	
   fulfil	
   an	
  
organisa/on’s	
  needs,	
  whether	
  it	
  is	
  weapons	
  for	
  an	
  army,	
  or	
  taking	
  businesses’	
  
products	
  from	
  factory	
  to	
  customers,	
  or	
  organising	
  holidays	
  for	
  a	
  group	
  of	
  10	
  
people…	
  
	
  	
  
Logis/cs	
  exists	
  since	
  at	
  least	
  An/quity	
  and	
  started	
  probably	
  with	
  Warfare	
  to	
  
support	
  supply	
  of	
  arms	
  to	
  the	
  fighters	
  on	
  the	
  baYleground.	
  	
  
	
  	
  
Among	
   others,	
   Logis/cs	
   concerns	
   itself	
   with	
   transporta/on,	
   storage	
   in	
  
Warehouses,	
   sourcing	
   supplies,	
   Time	
   management….	
   It	
   is	
   about	
   making	
   sure	
  
your	
   organisa/on’s	
   physical	
   movement	
   of	
   goods	
   follows	
   the	
   organisa/on’s	
  
needs	
  and	
  objec/ves.	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   4	
  
Defini/on	
  of	
  Logis/cs	
  
Logis/cs	
  in	
  Businesses	
  
	
  
Most	
   of	
   businesses	
   selling	
   physical	
   goods	
   have	
   a	
   Logis/cs	
   department.	
   This	
  
department	
  is	
  generally	
  concerned	
  about	
  transpor/ng	
  supplies	
  from	
  suppliers	
  to	
  the	
  
business’	
   factories	
   and	
   warehouses,	
   managing	
   stocks	
   in	
   Warehouses	
   and	
   then	
  
transpor/ng	
  finished	
  goods	
  to	
  customers.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
In	
  modern	
  days,	
  Logis/cs	
  is	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  more	
  general	
  framework	
  called	
  Supply-­‐Chain	
  
Management	
  concerned	
  with	
  the	
  full	
  chain	
  of	
  product	
  flow	
  from	
  original	
  suppliers	
  
un/l	
  delivery	
  to	
  customer.	
  We	
  will	
  plunge	
  into	
  this	
  fascina/ng	
  subject	
  in	
  subsequent	
  
presenta/ons.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   5	
  
PART	
  1:	
  WHAT	
  IS	
  LOGISTICS	
  ALL	
  ABOUT?	
  
	
  
Picture	
  1:	
  
Logis/cs	
  in	
  
Businesses	
  
Picture	
  2:	
  
Logis/cs	
  &	
  
Supply	
  Chain	
  
Factory	
  in	
  
Birmingham	
  
Warehouse	
  in	
  
London	
  Area	
  
Warehouse	
  in	
  
Dubai	
  
Customer	
  in	
  
Ras-­‐Al-­‐Khaimah	
  
Interna/onal	
  
Transporta/on:	
  Ship	
  Truck	
   Truck	
  
 
	
  	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   6	
  
Logis/cs	
  MoYos	
  
The	
  most	
  famous	
  moYo	
  in	
  Logis/cs	
  is	
  the	
  well	
  known:	
  
“The	
  right	
  Product	
  at	
  the	
  right	
  /me	
  in	
  the	
  right	
  place”	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
In	
   the	
   following	
   2	
   case	
   studies	
   we	
   will	
   show	
   how	
   this	
   principle	
   gets	
   challenged	
   in	
   real	
  
business	
  situa/ons	
  where:	
  
	
  	
  
In	
   case	
   study	
   1,	
   profitability	
   takes	
   over	
   true	
   logis/cs	
   needs	
   by	
   pueng	
   speed	
   as	
   the	
  
ul/mate	
  principle	
  of	
  a	
  logis/cian	
  
In	
  case	
  study	
  2,	
  a	
  small	
  business	
  where	
  the	
  principles	
  of	
  Lean	
  Inventory	
  have	
  not	
  yet	
  been	
  
implemented	
   and	
   the	
   CEO	
   and	
   his	
   organisa/on	
   are	
   overtaken	
   by	
   a	
   sudden	
   surge	
   in	
  
demand.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
PART	
  1:	
  WHAT	
  IS	
  LOGISTICS	
  ALL	
  ABOUT?	
  
	
  
Picture	
  3:	
  
Logis/cs	
  MoYo	
   11:50 AM
SHELF	
  A,	
  
RACK	
  18	
  B	
  
Case	
  Study	
   Objec/ves	
  
Logis/cs	
  BoYlenecks	
   Show	
  an	
  erroneous	
  Logis/cs	
  Principle	
  
Safety	
  Stock	
   Why	
  Lean	
  Inventory	
  makes	
  sense	
  
Dutch	
   explora/on	
   missions	
   were	
   the	
   first	
   to	
   colonise	
   Mars	
   in	
   November	
   2118	
  
prior	
  even	
  to	
  the	
  Americans.	
  2	
  scien/fic	
  teams	
  landed	
  on	
  the	
  Red	
  planet	
  at	
  11	
  
days	
   interval,	
   with	
   liYle	
   inter-­‐connec/on	
   except	
   a	
   small	
   communica/on	
   device	
  
nick-­‐named	
  Denise	
  Soren	
  Layatollah.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Team	
   A	
   took	
   its	
   headquarters	
   in	
   the	
   Mar/n	
   Valley	
   and	
   very	
   quickly	
   built	
   a	
  
temporary	
  air	
  base	
  in	
  order	
  first	
  to	
  occupy	
  properly	
  the	
  given	
  environment	
  and	
  
then	
  start	
  developing	
  their	
  project-­‐mission:	
  “Earthifying	
  Mars.”	
  
	
  	
  
Team	
  B	
  arrived	
  few	
  thousand	
  miles	
  North	
  and	
  launched	
  their	
  own	
  out	
  of	
  space	
  
Robinsonade	
   through	
   more	
   complex	
   socio-­‐biological	
   experimenta/ons,	
   in	
  
par/cular	
  ques/oning	
  the	
  long	
  Term	
  survival	
  of	
  both	
  missions	
  on	
  such	
  a	
  remote	
  
loca/on	
  	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   7	
  
The	
  Landscape	
  	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Picture	
  4:	
  Mars	
  	
  
Logis/cs	
  appears	
  	
  
In	
   order	
   to	
   communicate	
   properly,	
   Team	
   A	
   had	
   set	
   up	
   Denise	
   Soren	
   Layatollah	
   or	
   (DSL).	
   The	
  
objec/ves	
  were	
  two-­‐folds:	
  
First,	
  remain	
  in	
  contact	
  with	
  Team	
  B	
  
Second,	
  support	
  scien/fic	
  needs	
  for	
  both	
  Teams.	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  set	
  up	
  of	
  DSL	
  was	
  as	
  follows:	
  
	
  	
  
2	
  small	
  probes	
  were	
  sent	
  every	
  day	
  from	
  Team	
  A	
  near	
  the	
  Southern	
  pole	
  along	
  2	
  geodesic	
  paths.	
  
The	
  first	
  path	
  linked	
  back	
  to	
  Junc/on	
  Point	
  “Ether”	
  near	
  Team	
  B	
  close	
  to	
  the	
  Equator.	
  The	
  second	
  
path	
  followed	
  diverse	
  experiments	
  i/neraries	
  on	
  the	
  Red	
  planet.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Team	
  B	
  had	
  on	
  the	
  other	
  hand	
  the	
  responsibility	
  to	
  provide	
  Fresh	
  Food	
  for	
  both	
  missions	
  in	
  the	
  long	
  
term.	
   In	
   this	
   regard,	
   another	
   probe	
   was	
   sent	
   at	
   Junc/on	
   Point	
   “Ether”	
   in	
   order	
   to	
   drop	
   food,	
  
material	
  and	
  other	
  equipment.	
  One	
  of	
  the	
  probes	
  from	
  Team	
  A	
  had	
  to	
  collect	
  them	
  at	
  this	
  same	
  
Junc/on	
  point.	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   8	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Picture	
  5:	
  Junc/on	
  
Point	
  Ether	
  
Team	
  B	
  Territory	
   Team	
  A	
  Research	
  zone	
  Junc/on	
  Point	
  Ether	
  
2	
  Logis/cs	
  Processes	
  	
  
We	
  have	
  therefore	
  2	
  different	
  Logis/cs	
  processes	
  mee/ng	
  at	
  a	
  junc/on	
  point:	
  Process	
  A	
  
star/ng	
  with	
  Team	
  A	
  and	
  Process	
  B	
  star/ng	
  with	
  Team	
  B.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   9	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Process	
   A	
   is	
   a	
   pick	
   process	
   with	
   a	
   2	
   hours	
   logis/cs	
   cycle,	
  
which	
   means	
   the	
   pick	
   has	
   to	
   happen	
   within	
   2	
   hours	
   of	
  
reaching	
  the	
  Junc/on	
  Point,	
  if	
  not	
  the	
  process	
  owner	
  has	
  to	
  
move	
  the	
  probe	
  to	
  another	
  loca/on.	
  
	
  	
  
Process	
   B	
   is	
   a	
   drop	
   process,	
   which	
   is	
   /med,	
   meaning	
   items	
  
have	
  to	
  be	
  dropped	
  as	
  fast	
  as	
  possible.	
  
	
  	
  
Obviously	
  for	
  the	
  whole	
  opera/on	
  to	
  work	
  properly,	
  at	
  the	
  
junc/on	
  point,	
  process	
  B	
  has	
  to	
  occur	
  before	
  process	
  A.	
  i.e.	
  
the	
  item	
  has	
  to	
  be	
  dropped	
  at	
  junc/on	
  point	
  before	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  
picked.	
  
	
  
Picture	
  6:	
  The	
  2	
  
Logis/cs	
  Processes	
  
Process	
  A	
   Process	
  B	
  
Ether	
  
On	
  a	
  normal	
  day	
  	
  
In	
  normal	
  /mes,	
  no	
  problem	
  occurs.	
  Furthermore,	
  both	
  processes	
  can	
  be	
  done	
  fast	
  because	
  they	
  
have	
  been	
  engineered	
  so.	
  
	
  	
  
Over/me,	
  both	
  Dutch	
  missions	
  are	
  gaining	
  confidence	
  as	
  everything	
  seems	
  streamlined,	
  and	
  the	
  
DSL	
  concept	
  of	
  exchange	
  appears	
  as	
  the	
  perfect	
  solu/on	
  to	
  the	
  Mars	
  colonisa/on	
  riddle.	
  
	
  	
  
Very	
  cleverly,	
  the	
  colons	
  have	
  kept	
  monetary	
  transac/ons	
  alive	
  and	
  the	
  whole	
  ecosystem	
  follows	
  a	
  
free	
  liberal	
  economy.	
  Everything	
  has	
  to	
  be	
  paid	
  for,	
  even	
  the	
  transac/ons	
  on	
  the	
  DSL.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  managers	
  for	
  both	
  processes	
  A	
  and	
  B	
  quickly	
  realise	
  that	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  make	
  more	
  profit	
  on	
  the	
  
DSL	
  speed	
  is	
  of	
  the	
  essence.	
  The	
  faster	
  the	
  clerks	
  do	
  their	
  job,	
  the	
  faster	
  the	
  probes	
  move,	
  the	
  more	
  
money	
  the	
  managers	
  make.	
  Thus	
  both	
  Teams	
  have	
  a	
  Logis/cs	
  MoYo:	
  “Speed	
  is	
  King”.	
  
	
  	
  
	
   Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   10	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Picture	
  7:	
  Free	
  
Liberal	
  Economy	
  
A	
  mission	
  cri/cal	
  day	
  	
  
11	
  April	
  2119	
  is	
  a	
  crucial	
  day	
  for	
  both	
  teams.	
  A	
  fundamental	
  piece	
  of	
  equipment	
  
is	
  going	
  to	
  be	
  exchanged	
  through	
  the	
  DSL.	
  
	
  	
  
However	
  this	
  is	
  precisely	
  the	
  day	
  when	
  the	
  crisis	
  happens.	
  For	
  some	
  reasons,	
  the	
  
probe	
  of	
  process	
  A	
  is	
  one	
  hour	
  ahead	
  of	
  /me	
  and	
  the	
  probe	
  of	
  process	
  B	
  is	
  one	
  
hour	
  late.	
  Because	
  A	
  is	
  /med	
  differently	
  and	
  has	
  a	
  window	
  of	
  only	
  2	
  hours	
  to	
  do	
  
its	
  job,	
  it	
  leaves	
  the	
  junc/on	
  point	
  without	
  picking	
  the	
  item	
  causing	
  the	
  item	
  to	
  
be	
  labelled	
  as	
  missing.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   11	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Picture	
  8:	
  Missing	
  the	
  
/me	
  slot	
  
Time	
  
Process	
  A	
  
Process	
  B	
  
Consequences	
  	
  
Both	
  teams	
  think	
  the	
  equipment	
  has	
  been	
  lost	
  on	
  the	
  surface	
  of	
  Mars.	
  Both	
  
Manager	
  A	
  and	
  Manager	
  B	
  are	
  unable	
  to	
  find	
  the	
  equipment	
  and	
  thoroughly	
  
blame	
  the	
  other	
  person	
  as	
  responsible	
  of	
  the	
  mishandling.	
  
	
  	
  
A	
  major	
  crisis	
  hits	
  the	
  opera/ons	
  of	
  the	
  expedi/on	
  jeopardising	
  almost	
  its	
  
survival	
  on	
  the	
  alien	
  planet.	
  
	
  	
  
It	
   takes	
   months	
   to	
   the	
   colons	
   to	
   overcome	
   what	
   at	
   the	
   origin	
   was	
   only	
   a	
  
small	
  mistake.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   12	
  
CEO	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Causes	
  of	
  the	
  crisis	
  	
  
Let	
  us	
  now	
  ask	
  ourselves	
  what	
  are	
  the	
  causes	
  of	
  the	
  crisis.	
  It	
  is	
  indeed	
  linked	
  with	
  /me	
  
management.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  fact	
  that	
  probe	
  B	
  was	
  1	
  hour	
  late	
  is	
  certainly	
  a	
  managerial	
  error	
  but	
  looking	
  at	
  the	
  
deep	
  root	
  causes	
  of	
  it,	
  one	
  sees	
  there	
  were	
  plenty	
  of	
  jus/fiable	
  reasons	
  why	
  it	
  happened.	
  
New	
   environment,	
   uncertain	
   clima/c	
   condi/ons,	
   unknown	
   unknowns	
   etc…	
   Something	
  
which	
  can	
  happen	
  to	
  any	
  business	
  on	
  Earth	
  too	
  during	
  major	
  external	
  changes.	
  
	
  	
  
More	
  serious,	
  is	
  the	
  Logis/cs	
  logic	
  of	
  team	
  A…	
  which	
  ar/ficially	
  increased	
  the	
  speed	
  of	
  
probe	
  A	
  to	
  answer	
  profitability	
  needs.	
  They	
  were	
  in	
  known	
  business	
  territory	
  and	
  could	
  
have	
  avoided	
  the	
  whole	
  blunder.	
  
	
  	
  
They	
  would	
  never	
  have	
  imagined	
  that	
  in	
  business	
  one	
  can	
  be	
  too	
  much	
  in	
  advance…	
  	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   13	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Process	
   Real	
  cause	
  of	
  Time	
  Mismanagement	
  
A	
   Wrong	
  Logis/cs	
  Logic	
  
B	
   Unknown	
  Unknowns	
  
Solu/on	
  to	
  Case	
  study	
  1	
  	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   14	
  
We	
  see	
  therefore	
  that	
  in	
  the	
  Logis/cs	
  realm,	
  speed	
  is	
  not	
  necessarily	
  an	
  indicator	
  of	
  
efficiency.	
  
	
  	
  
Timeliness	
  seems	
  more	
  appropriate.	
  There	
  is	
  a	
  reason	
  why	
  the	
  brain	
  behind	
  a	
  business	
  
process	
  has	
  precisely	
  given	
  that	
  window	
  of	
  /me	
  to	
  the	
  process	
  and	
  no	
  other.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Therefore	
  speed	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  answer	
  to	
  Logis/cs.	
  
	
  	
  
Right	
  /me,	
  right	
  place,	
  right	
  product.	
  
	
  	
  
What	
  happened	
  with	
  /me	
  (/me	
  mismatch)	
  here	
  in	
  this	
  case	
  study	
  happens	
  very	
  oqen	
  
with	
  products	
  with	
  real	
  businesses	
  on	
  planet	
  Earth	
  precisely	
  because	
  speed	
  is	
  wrongly	
  
considered	
  as	
  the	
  essence	
  of	
  Logis/cs	
  (or	
  Opera/ons	
  Management	
  in	
  more	
  general):	
  
i.e.	
  The	
  customer	
  receives	
  the	
  wrong	
  product.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  	
  
PART	
  2:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  1:	
  Processes	
  BoYlenecks	
  	
  
	
  
Picture	
  9:	
  Timeliness	
  
vs.	
  Speed	
  
Timeliness	
   Speed	
  
A	
  rum	
  factory	
  in	
  Jamaica	
  
We	
  are	
  in	
  a	
  small	
  entrepreneurial	
  rum	
  factory	
  on	
  the	
  Jamaican	
  coast	
  run	
  as	
  a	
  one-­‐man-­‐
show	
  by	
  Dr	
  Grunrelt	
  with	
  limited	
  resources	
  but	
  huge	
  turnover.	
  The	
  company	
  sells	
  a	
  
niche	
   product	
   to	
   very	
   faithful	
   clients	
   all	
   over	
   the	
   West	
   Indies	
   up	
   to	
   the	
   Bermuda	
  
Triangle.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
Though	
   the	
   customer	
   base	
   is	
   strong,	
   the	
   organisa/on	
   is	
   very	
   open	
   &	
   dynamic,	
  
expanding	
  to	
  new	
  markets.	
  Moreover,	
  its	
  business	
  systems	
  are	
  very	
  simple	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  
remain	
   flexible	
   and	
   respond	
   to	
   the	
   very	
   compe//ve	
   and	
   changing	
   business	
  
environment.	
  
	
  	
  
Dr	
   Grunrelt	
   is	
   proud	
   of	
   his	
   achievements	
   but	
   some/mes	
   wonder	
   how	
   long	
   he	
   can	
  
sustain	
  it.	
  
	
  	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   15	
  
PART	
  3:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
Picture	
  10:	
  
Caribbean	
  
Normal	
  Daily	
  Rou/ne	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   16	
  
The	
  Business	
  processes	
  are	
  in	
  fact	
  very	
  basic	
  in	
  the	
  factory.	
  BoYles	
  come	
  in	
  every	
  morning.	
  4	
  
raw,	
  purchased	
  ingredients	
  are	
  used	
  to	
  elaborate	
  the	
  final	
  product	
  and	
  are	
  mixed	
  first	
  and	
  then	
  
filled	
  in	
  the	
  boYles,	
  which	
  are	
  aqerwards	
  sealed	
  and	
  sold	
  as	
  it	
  is.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Among	
  the	
  4	
  raw	
  ingredients,	
  there	
  is	
  one	
  key	
  element,	
  which	
  gives	
  the	
  “kick”	
  to	
  the	
  whole	
  
product	
  and	
  is	
  called	
  the	
  “elixir”	
  by	
  the	
  workers.	
  It	
  is	
  the	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  of	
  the	
  Elixir,	
  which	
  is	
  our	
  
main	
  centre	
  of	
  aYen/on	
  in	
  this	
  case	
  study.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
What	
   is	
   Safety	
   Stock?	
   It	
   is	
   the	
   minimal	
   stock	
   one	
   keeps	
   in	
   the	
   factory	
   even	
   if	
   the	
   rest	
   gets	
  
depleted.	
  It	
  should	
  be	
  large	
  enough	
  to	
  sustain	
  sudden	
  surges	
  of	
  demand	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  not	
  over-­‐
cau/ous	
  as	
  storage	
  costs	
  money.	
  
	
  	
  
Dr	
  Grunrelt	
  uses	
  a	
  complex	
  algorithm	
  to	
  calculate	
  it	
  based	
  on	
  es/mated	
  demand.	
  
	
  
PART	
  3:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
Picture	
  11:	
  BoYles	
  
Picture	
  12:	
  
Safety	
  Stock	
   Safety	
  Stock	
  
Stock	
  
The	
  Crisis	
  
One	
  summer	
  day,	
  during	
  a	
  peak	
  demand	
  period,	
  the	
  factory	
  suddenly	
  runs	
  out	
  of	
  Elixir	
  and	
  no	
  
more	
  boYles	
  can	
  be	
  produced.	
  Everything	
  has	
  to	
  stop.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Dr	
   Grunrelt	
   is	
   furious.	
   He	
   can	
   see	
   right	
   now	
   the	
   impact	
   this	
   is	
   going	
   to	
   have	
   on	
   his	
   small	
  
business:	
   Unsa/sfied	
   customers,	
   Loss	
   of	
   market	
   share,	
   boos/ng	
   compe/tors	
   and	
   more	
  
seriously	
  reputa/on	
  damage.	
  
	
  	
  
He	
  decides	
  to	
  inves/gate	
  what	
  has	
  happened	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  answer	
  why	
  it	
  has	
  happened.	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   17	
  
PART	
  3:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
Picture	
  13:	
  Stock	
  =	
  0	
  
Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   18	
  
Root	
  cause	
  analysis	
  
How	
   come	
   despite	
   the	
   Safety	
   Stock,	
   the	
   stock	
   of	
   Elixir	
   has	
   fully	
   vanished?	
   He	
   knows	
  
excessive	
  demand	
  is	
  not	
  an	
  excuse	
  as	
  his	
  Safety	
  stock	
  is	
  based	
  on	
  forecasted	
  demand.	
  
	
  	
  
He	
  summons	
  the	
  Logis/cs	
  manager	
  to	
  give	
  some	
  explana/on	
  on	
  his	
  stock	
  management.	
  
The	
  truth	
  suddenly	
  comes	
  out.	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  Stock	
  of	
  Elixir	
  is	
  in	
  normal	
  /me	
  far	
  too	
  high	
  as	
  it	
  far	
  exceeds	
  demand.	
  The	
  warehouse	
  
manager	
  cannot	
  keep	
  control	
  of	
  it	
  and	
  many	
  employees	
  knowing	
  it	
  serve	
  themselves	
  in	
  
the	
   stock	
   for	
   their	
   own	
   personal	
   use.	
   Therefore	
   although	
   high,	
   the	
   real	
   stock	
   is	
   s/ll	
  
significantly	
  lower	
  than	
  the	
  one	
  indicated	
  in	
  the	
  Excel	
  sheets	
  and	
  explains	
  why	
  the	
  crisis	
  
happened	
   in	
   the	
   first	
   place.	
   Furthermore,	
   due	
   to	
   excessive	
   stocks	
   in	
   regular	
   days,	
   the	
  
warehouse	
  manager	
  is	
  at	
  pain	
  at	
  monitoring	
  who	
  does	
  what	
  on	
  the	
  shop	
  floor	
  and	
  if	
  the	
  
stock	
  in	
  hand	
  matches	
  with	
  the	
  one	
  on	
  the	
  IT	
  system.	
  	
  
	
  	
  
What	
  is	
  the	
  solu/on	
  to	
  this	
  new	
  riddle?	
  
	
  
PART	
  3:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
How	
  this	
  could	
  have	
  been	
  solved	
  
One	
  good	
  solu/on	
  here	
  would	
  be	
  to	
  switch	
  to	
  Lean	
  Inventory	
  and	
  the	
  Japanese	
  Kanban	
  method.	
  2	
  
Principles	
  to	
  respect	
  here:	
  
	
  	
  
Keep	
  Safety	
  Stocks	
  to	
  their	
  lowest	
  levels	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  monitor	
  physically	
  (even	
  visually)	
  the	
  Stock	
  of	
  
Elixir	
  
Replenish	
  stocks	
  each	
  /me	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  customer	
  order	
  and	
  only	
  in	
  that	
  case.	
  
	
  	
  
Although	
   this	
   is	
   not	
   the	
   ul/mate	
   answer	
   to	
   the	
   crisis,	
   Lean	
   Inventory	
   and	
   Kanban	
   are	
   proven	
  
methods.	
  Furthermore	
  it	
  will	
  avoid	
  the	
  problem	
  of	
  having	
  too	
  huge	
  inventory	
  to	
  be	
  monitored	
  by	
  a	
  
small	
  organisa/on	
  and	
  employee	
  chea/ng.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Because	
  stocks	
  follow	
  demand	
  to	
  the	
  leYer	
  with	
  minimal	
  depth,	
  the	
  warehouse	
  manager	
  should	
  be	
  
able	
  to	
  control	
  them	
  far	
  beYer	
  as	
  their	
  size	
  will	
  never	
  go	
  off	
  the	
  roof.	
  
	
  	
  
	
   Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   19	
  
PART	
  3:	
  CASE	
  STUDY	
  2:	
  Safety	
  Stock	
  
Picture	
  14:	
  Lean	
  
Inventory	
   Ship	
  
Water	
  =	
  Stock	
  
Rocks	
  =	
  Demand	
  
Final	
  Statement	
  	
  
We	
  have	
  therefore	
  seen	
  Logis/cs	
  in	
  prac/cal	
  situa/ons.	
  
	
  	
  
How	
  at	
  the	
  end,	
  the	
  whole	
  problem	
  of	
  Logis/cs	
  is	
  concerned	
  about	
  detec/ng	
  the	
  opera/onal	
  
obstacles	
  linked	
  with	
  transpor/ng	
  goods,	
  storage	
  or	
  just	
  physical	
  movement	
  with	
  a	
  monetary	
  
purpose.	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
The	
  2	
  case	
  studies	
  demonstrated	
  2	
  situa/ons	
  where	
  boYlenecks	
  or	
  crisis	
  situa/ons	
  appear,	
  
one	
  due	
  to	
  excess	
  profit	
  op/misa/on,	
  the	
  second	
  to	
  a	
  lack	
  of	
  Lean	
  Management.	
  
	
  	
  
Logis/cs	
  requires	
  therefore	
  common	
  sense	
  and	
  some	
  basic	
  prac/cal	
  guidelines	
  …	
  too	
  oqen	
  
forgoYen	
  by	
  many	
  real-­‐life	
  businesses.	
  These	
  2	
  case	
  studies	
  were	
  presented	
  to	
  show	
  case	
  how	
  
and	
  why	
  simple	
  principles	
  can	
  be	
  totally	
  missed.	
  
.	
  	
  
	
   Mathema'cs	
  applied	
  to	
  Business	
  Theory	
   20	
  
FINAL	
  STATEMENT	
  
Process	
  
apparently	
  fully	
  
designed	
  and	
  
streamlined	
  
Looking	
  closely:	
  
Small	
  perturba/ons	
  
which	
  can	
  clog	
  up	
  
the	
  whole	
  system	
  
Picture	
  15:	
  Low	
  
Signal	
  Detec/on	
  

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Logistics Bottlenecks and Safety Stock Case Studies

  • 1. Low  Signal  Detec/on         ©  North  Delta  College  2015     Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   1   2   CASE   STUDIES   ON   LOGISTICS   AND   ITS   BOTTLENECKS  
  • 2. INTRODUCTION   Low  Signal  Detec/on  is  concerned  about  describing  key  crisis  situa/ons  occurring  in   the  art  of  the  Logis/cian.  Logis/cs  generally  deals  with  the  moving  of  the  physical   goods  necessary  to  fulfil  an  organisa/on’s  needs.  As  such  it  has  one  of  the  oldest   corpus  of  techniques  in  any  branch  of  business  management.       We  will  present  2  case  studies  showing  a  breakdown  origina/ng  in  a  poor  or   incomplete  logis/cs  set  up  and  demonstrate  how  to  solve  them.       The  reader  will  get  the  tools  to  re-­‐ques/on  his  own  logis/cs  needs.       So,  Welcome,  Ladies  and  Gentlemen  to  Low  Signal  Detec/on,  where  your  Logis/cs   and  Supply-­‐Chain  Understanding  will  be  taken  to  new  dimensions  and  your   business  imagina/on  into  a  mind-­‐blowing  journey.     .      Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   2  
  • 3. SUMMARY   Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   3   Part  1:  What  is  Logis/cs  all  about?   A)  Defini/on  of  Logis/cs   B)  Logis/cs  in  Businesses   C)  Logis/cs  MoYos     Part  2:  Case  Study  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks   A)  The  Situa/on   B)  An  Adventure   C)  The  Crisis   D)  Consequences   E)  How  this  could  have  been  solved     Part  3:  Case  Study  2:  Safety  Stock   A)  The  Situa/on   B)  Normal  Daily  Rou/ne   C)  The  Crisis   D)  Consequences   E)  How  this  could  have  been  solved     Final  Statement  
  • 4. PART  1:  WHAT  IS  LOGISTICS  ALL  ABOUT?     Logis/cs   is   the   art   of   displacing   products,   people   or   equipment   to   fulfil   an   organisa/on’s  needs,  whether  it  is  weapons  for  an  army,  or  taking  businesses’   products  from  factory  to  customers,  or  organising  holidays  for  a  group  of  10   people…       Logis/cs  exists  since  at  least  An/quity  and  started  probably  with  Warfare  to   support  supply  of  arms  to  the  fighters  on  the  baYleground.         Among   others,   Logis/cs   concerns   itself   with   transporta/on,   storage   in   Warehouses,   sourcing   supplies,   Time   management….   It   is   about   making   sure   your   organisa/on’s   physical   movement   of   goods   follows   the   organisa/on’s   needs  and  objec/ves.   Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   4   Defini/on  of  Logis/cs  
  • 5. Logis/cs  in  Businesses     Most   of   businesses   selling   physical   goods   have   a   Logis/cs   department.   This   department  is  generally  concerned  about  transpor/ng  supplies  from  suppliers  to  the   business’   factories   and   warehouses,   managing   stocks   in   Warehouses   and   then   transpor/ng  finished  goods  to  customers.             In  modern  days,  Logis/cs  is  part  of  a  more  general  framework  called  Supply-­‐Chain   Management  concerned  with  the  full  chain  of  product  flow  from  original  suppliers   un/l  delivery  to  customer.  We  will  plunge  into  this  fascina/ng  subject  in  subsequent   presenta/ons.               Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   5   PART  1:  WHAT  IS  LOGISTICS  ALL  ABOUT?     Picture  1:   Logis/cs  in   Businesses   Picture  2:   Logis/cs  &   Supply  Chain   Factory  in   Birmingham   Warehouse  in   London  Area   Warehouse  in   Dubai   Customer  in   Ras-­‐Al-­‐Khaimah   Interna/onal   Transporta/on:  Ship  Truck   Truck  
  • 6.       Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   6   Logis/cs  MoYos   The  most  famous  moYo  in  Logis/cs  is  the  well  known:   “The  right  Product  at  the  right  /me  in  the  right  place”               In   the   following   2   case   studies   we   will   show   how   this   principle   gets   challenged   in   real   business  situa/ons  where:       In   case   study   1,   profitability   takes   over   true   logis/cs   needs   by   pueng   speed   as   the   ul/mate  principle  of  a  logis/cian   In  case  study  2,  a  small  business  where  the  principles  of  Lean  Inventory  have  not  yet  been   implemented   and   the   CEO   and   his   organisa/on   are   overtaken   by   a   sudden   surge   in   demand.         PART  1:  WHAT  IS  LOGISTICS  ALL  ABOUT?     Picture  3:   Logis/cs  MoYo   11:50 AM SHELF  A,   RACK  18  B   Case  Study   Objec/ves   Logis/cs  BoYlenecks   Show  an  erroneous  Logis/cs  Principle   Safety  Stock   Why  Lean  Inventory  makes  sense  
  • 7. Dutch   explora/on   missions   were   the   first   to   colonise   Mars   in   November   2118   prior  even  to  the  Americans.  2  scien/fic  teams  landed  on  the  Red  planet  at  11   days   interval,   with   liYle   inter-­‐connec/on   except   a   small   communica/on   device   nick-­‐named  Denise  Soren  Layatollah.               Team   A   took   its   headquarters   in   the   Mar/n   Valley   and   very   quickly   built   a   temporary  air  base  in  order  first  to  occupy  properly  the  given  environment  and   then  start  developing  their  project-­‐mission:  “Earthifying  Mars.”       Team  B  arrived  few  thousand  miles  North  and  launched  their  own  out  of  space   Robinsonade   through   more   complex   socio-­‐biological   experimenta/ons,   in   par/cular  ques/oning  the  long  Term  survival  of  both  missions  on  such  a  remote   loca/on     Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   7   The  Landscape     PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Picture  4:  Mars    
  • 8. Logis/cs  appears     In   order   to   communicate   properly,   Team   A   had   set   up   Denise   Soren   Layatollah   or   (DSL).   The   objec/ves  were  two-­‐folds:   First,  remain  in  contact  with  Team  B   Second,  support  scien/fic  needs  for  both  Teams.       The  set  up  of  DSL  was  as  follows:       2  small  probes  were  sent  every  day  from  Team  A  near  the  Southern  pole  along  2  geodesic  paths.   The  first  path  linked  back  to  Junc/on  Point  “Ether”  near  Team  B  close  to  the  Equator.  The  second   path  followed  diverse  experiments  i/neraries  on  the  Red  planet.             Team  B  had  on  the  other  hand  the  responsibility  to  provide  Fresh  Food  for  both  missions  in  the  long   term.   In   this   regard,   another   probe   was   sent   at   Junc/on   Point   “Ether”   in   order   to   drop   food,   material  and  other  equipment.  One  of  the  probes  from  Team  A  had  to  collect  them  at  this  same   Junc/on  point.     Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   8   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Picture  5:  Junc/on   Point  Ether   Team  B  Territory   Team  A  Research  zone  Junc/on  Point  Ether  
  • 9. 2  Logis/cs  Processes     We  have  therefore  2  different  Logis/cs  processes  mee/ng  at  a  junc/on  point:  Process  A   star/ng  with  Team  A  and  Process  B  star/ng  with  Team  B.                   Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   9   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Process   A   is   a   pick   process   with   a   2   hours   logis/cs   cycle,   which   means   the   pick   has   to   happen   within   2   hours   of   reaching  the  Junc/on  Point,  if  not  the  process  owner  has  to   move  the  probe  to  another  loca/on.       Process   B   is   a   drop   process,   which   is   /med,   meaning   items   have  to  be  dropped  as  fast  as  possible.       Obviously  for  the  whole  opera/on  to  work  properly,  at  the   junc/on  point,  process  B  has  to  occur  before  process  A.  i.e.   the  item  has  to  be  dropped  at  junc/on  point  before  it  can  be   picked.     Picture  6:  The  2   Logis/cs  Processes   Process  A   Process  B   Ether  
  • 10. On  a  normal  day     In  normal  /mes,  no  problem  occurs.  Furthermore,  both  processes  can  be  done  fast  because  they   have  been  engineered  so.       Over/me,  both  Dutch  missions  are  gaining  confidence  as  everything  seems  streamlined,  and  the   DSL  concept  of  exchange  appears  as  the  perfect  solu/on  to  the  Mars  colonisa/on  riddle.       Very  cleverly,  the  colons  have  kept  monetary  transac/ons  alive  and  the  whole  ecosystem  follows  a   free  liberal  economy.  Everything  has  to  be  paid  for,  even  the  transac/ons  on  the  DSL.                 The  managers  for  both  processes  A  and  B  quickly  realise  that  in  order  to  make  more  profit  on  the   DSL  speed  is  of  the  essence.  The  faster  the  clerks  do  their  job,  the  faster  the  probes  move,  the  more   money  the  managers  make.  Thus  both  Teams  have  a  Logis/cs  MoYo:  “Speed  is  King”.         Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   10   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Picture  7:  Free   Liberal  Economy  
  • 11. A  mission  cri/cal  day     11  April  2119  is  a  crucial  day  for  both  teams.  A  fundamental  piece  of  equipment   is  going  to  be  exchanged  through  the  DSL.       However  this  is  precisely  the  day  when  the  crisis  happens.  For  some  reasons,  the   probe  of  process  A  is  one  hour  ahead  of  /me  and  the  probe  of  process  B  is  one   hour  late.  Because  A  is  /med  differently  and  has  a  window  of  only  2  hours  to  do   its  job,  it  leaves  the  junc/on  point  without  picking  the  item  causing  the  item  to   be  labelled  as  missing.           Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   11   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Picture  8:  Missing  the   /me  slot   Time   Process  A   Process  B  
  • 12. Consequences     Both  teams  think  the  equipment  has  been  lost  on  the  surface  of  Mars.  Both   Manager  A  and  Manager  B  are  unable  to  find  the  equipment  and  thoroughly   blame  the  other  person  as  responsible  of  the  mishandling.       A  major  crisis  hits  the  opera/ons  of  the  expedi/on  jeopardising  almost  its   survival  on  the  alien  planet.       It   takes   months   to   the   colons   to   overcome   what   at   the   origin   was   only   a   small  mistake.         Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   12   CEO   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks      
  • 13. Causes  of  the  crisis     Let  us  now  ask  ourselves  what  are  the  causes  of  the  crisis.  It  is  indeed  linked  with  /me   management.             The  fact  that  probe  B  was  1  hour  late  is  certainly  a  managerial  error  but  looking  at  the   deep  root  causes  of  it,  one  sees  there  were  plenty  of  jus/fiable  reasons  why  it  happened.   New   environment,   uncertain   clima/c   condi/ons,   unknown   unknowns   etc…   Something   which  can  happen  to  any  business  on  Earth  too  during  major  external  changes.       More  serious,  is  the  Logis/cs  logic  of  team  A…  which  ar/ficially  increased  the  speed  of   probe  A  to  answer  profitability  needs.  They  were  in  known  business  territory  and  could   have  avoided  the  whole  blunder.       They  would  never  have  imagined  that  in  business  one  can  be  too  much  in  advance…       Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   13   PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Process   Real  cause  of  Time  Mismanagement   A   Wrong  Logis/cs  Logic   B   Unknown  Unknowns  
  • 14. Solu/on  to  Case  study  1           Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   14   We  see  therefore  that  in  the  Logis/cs  realm,  speed  is  not  necessarily  an  indicator  of   efficiency.       Timeliness  seems  more  appropriate.  There  is  a  reason  why  the  brain  behind  a  business   process  has  precisely  given  that  window  of  /me  to  the  process  and  no  other.               Therefore  speed  is  not  the  answer  to  Logis/cs.       Right  /me,  right  place,  right  product.       What  happened  with  /me  (/me  mismatch)  here  in  this  case  study  happens  very  oqen   with  products  with  real  businesses  on  planet  Earth  precisely  because  speed  is  wrongly   considered  as  the  essence  of  Logis/cs  (or  Opera/ons  Management  in  more  general):   i.e.  The  customer  receives  the  wrong  product.           PART  2:  CASE  STUDY  1:  Processes  BoYlenecks       Picture  9:  Timeliness   vs.  Speed   Timeliness   Speed  
  • 15. A  rum  factory  in  Jamaica   We  are  in  a  small  entrepreneurial  rum  factory  on  the  Jamaican  coast  run  as  a  one-­‐man-­‐ show  by  Dr  Grunrelt  with  limited  resources  but  huge  turnover.  The  company  sells  a   niche   product   to   very   faithful   clients   all   over   the   West   Indies   up   to   the   Bermuda   Triangle.               Though   the   customer   base   is   strong,   the   organisa/on   is   very   open   &   dynamic,   expanding  to  new  markets.  Moreover,  its  business  systems  are  very  simple  in  order  to   remain   flexible   and   respond   to   the   very   compe//ve   and   changing   business   environment.       Dr   Grunrelt   is   proud   of   his   achievements   but   some/mes   wonder   how   long   he   can   sustain  it.       Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   15   PART  3:  CASE  STUDY  2:  Safety  Stock   Picture  10:   Caribbean  
  • 16. Normal  Daily  Rou/ne   Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   16   The  Business  processes  are  in  fact  very  basic  in  the  factory.  BoYles  come  in  every  morning.  4   raw,  purchased  ingredients  are  used  to  elaborate  the  final  product  and  are  mixed  first  and  then   filled  in  the  boYles,  which  are  aqerwards  sealed  and  sold  as  it  is.             Among  the  4  raw  ingredients,  there  is  one  key  element,  which  gives  the  “kick”  to  the  whole   product  and  is  called  the  “elixir”  by  the  workers.  It  is  the  Safety  Stock  of  the  Elixir,  which  is  our   main  centre  of  aYen/on  in  this  case  study.             What   is   Safety   Stock?   It   is   the   minimal   stock   one   keeps   in   the   factory   even   if   the   rest   gets   depleted.  It  should  be  large  enough  to  sustain  sudden  surges  of  demand  as  well  as  not  over-­‐ cau/ous  as  storage  costs  money.       Dr  Grunrelt  uses  a  complex  algorithm  to  calculate  it  based  on  es/mated  demand.     PART  3:  CASE  STUDY  2:  Safety  Stock   Picture  11:  BoYles   Picture  12:   Safety  Stock   Safety  Stock   Stock  
  • 17. The  Crisis   One  summer  day,  during  a  peak  demand  period,  the  factory  suddenly  runs  out  of  Elixir  and  no   more  boYles  can  be  produced.  Everything  has  to  stop.                   Dr   Grunrelt   is   furious.   He   can   see   right   now   the   impact   this   is   going   to   have   on   his   small   business:   Unsa/sfied   customers,   Loss   of   market   share,   boos/ng   compe/tors   and   more   seriously  reputa/on  damage.       He  decides  to  inves/gate  what  has  happened  in  order  to  answer  why  it  has  happened.   Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   17   PART  3:  CASE  STUDY  2:  Safety  Stock   Picture  13:  Stock  =  0  
  • 18. Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   18   Root  cause  analysis   How   come   despite   the   Safety   Stock,   the   stock   of   Elixir   has   fully   vanished?   He   knows   excessive  demand  is  not  an  excuse  as  his  Safety  stock  is  based  on  forecasted  demand.       He  summons  the  Logis/cs  manager  to  give  some  explana/on  on  his  stock  management.   The  truth  suddenly  comes  out.       The  Stock  of  Elixir  is  in  normal  /me  far  too  high  as  it  far  exceeds  demand.  The  warehouse   manager  cannot  keep  control  of  it  and  many  employees  knowing  it  serve  themselves  in   the   stock   for   their   own   personal   use.   Therefore   although   high,   the   real   stock   is   s/ll   significantly  lower  than  the  one  indicated  in  the  Excel  sheets  and  explains  why  the  crisis   happened   in   the   first   place.   Furthermore,   due   to   excessive   stocks   in   regular   days,   the   warehouse  manager  is  at  pain  at  monitoring  who  does  what  on  the  shop  floor  and  if  the   stock  in  hand  matches  with  the  one  on  the  IT  system.         What  is  the  solu/on  to  this  new  riddle?     PART  3:  CASE  STUDY  2:  Safety  Stock  
  • 19. How  this  could  have  been  solved   One  good  solu/on  here  would  be  to  switch  to  Lean  Inventory  and  the  Japanese  Kanban  method.  2   Principles  to  respect  here:       Keep  Safety  Stocks  to  their  lowest  levels  in  order  to  monitor  physically  (even  visually)  the  Stock  of   Elixir   Replenish  stocks  each  /me  there  is  a  customer  order  and  only  in  that  case.       Although   this   is   not   the   ul/mate   answer   to   the   crisis,   Lean   Inventory   and   Kanban   are   proven   methods.  Furthermore  it  will  avoid  the  problem  of  having  too  huge  inventory  to  be  monitored  by  a   small  organisa/on  and  employee  chea/ng.               Because  stocks  follow  demand  to  the  leYer  with  minimal  depth,  the  warehouse  manager  should  be   able  to  control  them  far  beYer  as  their  size  will  never  go  off  the  roof.         Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   19   PART  3:  CASE  STUDY  2:  Safety  Stock   Picture  14:  Lean   Inventory   Ship   Water  =  Stock   Rocks  =  Demand  
  • 20. Final  Statement     We  have  therefore  seen  Logis/cs  in  prac/cal  situa/ons.       How  at  the  end,  the  whole  problem  of  Logis/cs  is  concerned  about  detec/ng  the  opera/onal   obstacles  linked  with  transpor/ng  goods,  storage  or  just  physical  movement  with  a  monetary   purpose.               The  2  case  studies  demonstrated  2  situa/ons  where  boYlenecks  or  crisis  situa/ons  appear,   one  due  to  excess  profit  op/misa/on,  the  second  to  a  lack  of  Lean  Management.       Logis/cs  requires  therefore  common  sense  and  some  basic  prac/cal  guidelines  …  too  oqen   forgoYen  by  many  real-­‐life  businesses.  These  2  case  studies  were  presented  to  show  case  how   and  why  simple  principles  can  be  totally  missed.   .       Mathema'cs  applied  to  Business  Theory   20   FINAL  STATEMENT   Process   apparently  fully   designed  and   streamlined   Looking  closely:   Small  perturba/ons   which  can  clog  up   the  whole  system   Picture  15:  Low   Signal  Detec/on