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AS THE SOUTH GOES
Chris Kromm, Institute for Southern Studies
Public Interest Projects Donor Learning Institute
September 27-28, 2012
“You can‟t understand [the South]. You would
have to be born there.”
— William Faulkner


                “I‟m Southern, and I know neurotic behavior.”
                                                — Faye Dunaway


“We are all magicians. We created the mystery
of the South and we can dissolve it.”
— Howard Zinn



               "Stop talking about the South. Long as you‟re
      south of the Canadian border, you’re in the South.”
                                                   — Malcolm X
90%+     75%+     45%+


Is your community in the South?
11


          13




     17
13
The Growing South
+8
Winners and Losers: Congressional
              Seats
SOUTHERN
                   32%

       NON-
     SOUTHERN
       68%




Share of Electoral College
2012 Conventions Go South
4,500,000


4,000,000


3,500,000


3,000,000

2,500,000


2,000,000
                              TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE

1,500,000                     MIGRATION


1,000,000


 500,000


       0




            Newcomers fuel growth
States with Fastest Latino/Hispanic
          Growth, 2000-2010




Growing Latino communities
Map 3: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Hispanic Populations, 2000-2010
Hispanic growth rate shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Mexican
contribution to Hispanic growth:   >50%          <50%




                                                                      Greenville (145%)
                                                                                              Scranton (376%)
                                                                   Knoxville (208%)

                                                    Indianapolis (161%)
                                                        Louisville (158%)                     Richmond (161%)

                                                       Nashville (156%)                      Raleigh (152%)
                                                                                             Charlotte (153%)
                                          Little Rock (165%)                                 Columbia (151%)

                                                      Birmingham (161%)                   Charleston (173%)

                                                                              Chattanooga (163%)



                                                                                          Cape Coral (170%)

Source: Author's analysis of 2000 and 2010 decennial census data




  Latino communities fuel urban growth
Map 4: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Asian Populations, 2000-2010
Asian growth percentage shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Indian
contribution to Asian growth:     >25%          <25%
2000-2010
                         Growth in      Total Latino Percent of State
                 STATE
                           Latino      Eligible Voters  Electorate
                         Electorate

      Texas                      38%        4,376,000         24.80%
      Florida                    66%        2,100,000         16.80%
      Georgia                   181%          194,000          2.90%
      North Carolina            117%          182,000          2.80%
      Louisiana                  34%           67,000          2.50%
      Virginia                   76%          254,000          2.20%
      South Carolina             -2%           45,000          1.60%
      Arkansas                  200%           48,000          1.50%
      Missisippi                -58%            8,000          1.20%
      Tennessee                 177%           72,000          1.10%
      Alabama                   333%           20,000          0.90%
      Tennessee                 177%           72,000          1.10%
      West Virginia               0%            5,000          0.30%




The growing Southern Latino electorate
The Black Belt
9           10             11     Dallas, TX                            941,695
               10           7             5      Los Angeles, CA                       859,086


                                                                                    Black Change,
           Change Rank                           Metro Area Name*                     2000-2010
                FG G
                  G9               , AAG9
                    1                 1          Atlanta, GA                           473,493
                    2                 5          Dallas, TX                            233,890
                    3                 7          Houston, TX                           214,928
                    4                 3          Miami, FL                             191,658
                    5                 4          Washington, DC                        155,648
                    6                15          Charlotte, NC                         121,523
                    7                11          Orlando, FL                           100,605
                    8                 8          Philadelphia, PA                      93,161
                    9                16          Minneapolis, MN                       83,464
                    10               28          Phoenix, AZ                           80,318

          Source: Author’s analysis of 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial census data
          *Metro area names abbreviated




                    African-American urban growth
 list of the metro areas with the largest black populations over time shows the re-ascendance of the
th (Table 3, top panel). New York continued to hold its top ranking due to its long history as a magnet
Map 4: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Asian Populations, 2000-2010
    Asian growth percentage shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Indian
    contribution to Asian growth:     >25%          <25%




                                                                                                 Scranton (94%)


                                                          Indianapolis (103%)
                                                                                                 Richmond (89%)
                     Las Vegas (133%)                                                           Raleigh (129%)
                  Riverside (89%)
                                                                                           Charlotte (103%)
                           Phoenix (105%)

                                           Austin (87%)

                                San Antonio (89%)                       Lakeland (116%)     Orlando (90%)
                                                                      Bradenton (108%)
                                                                                             Cape Coral (149%)
                                                          McAllen (122%)

    Source: Author's analysis of 2000 and 2010 decennial census data




        Asian-American community growth
B                                                                                                       BROOKINGS   August 2011
Majority People of Color counties
Majority People of Color counties –
         age 65 and older
Majority People of Color counties –
           age 18 to 34
Majority People of Color counties –
          age 1 and under
The growing urban South
… but still a big rural presence
Urban vs. Rural: N.C. Anti-Gay
    Marriage Amendment
POLITICAL POWER




EMERGING SOUTHERN MAJORITY
The war on voting
STATE         ESTIMATED VOTERS   PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
              WITHOUT ID         MARGIN 2008
N. Carolina   460,000            14,177
S. Carolina   178,175            172,447
Tennessee     216,596            391,741
Texas         600,000            950,695




        The impact of photo ID laws
Congressional plans
State legislative plans
50% of people of color in the state
are packed into:

 3 of 13 Congressional districts (23%)
 10 of 50 state Senate districts (20%)
 25 of 120 state House districts (21%)




             North Carolina
“[The 2011 Texas redistricting plan violated the Voting
Rights Act by] diminishing the ability of citizens of the
United States, on account of race, color, or membership in
a language minority group, to elect their preferred
candidates of choice … The only explanation Texas offers
for this pattern is „coincidence.‟ But if this was
coincidence, it was a striking one indeed.”
— U.S. Circuit Judge Thomas B. Griffith, August 2012




                                 Texas
Anti-immigrant legislation
3 Art Pope groups =
         75% of all outside
         money flowing into
         N.C. state legislative
         races in 2010, giving
         Republicans 10-to-1
         money advantage




Associated Press, November 3, 2010
Right to work (for less) states
STATE            % IN UNION

       North Carolina   2.9
       South Carolina   3.4
       Georgia          3.9
       Arkansas         4.2
       Louisiana 4.5
       Tennessee        4.6
       Virginia         4.6
       Mississippi      5.0
       South Dakota     5.1
       Texas            5.2

       Florida          6.3
       Kentucky         8.9
       Alabama          10.0
       West Virginia    13.8



States with lowest union density
The poverty belt
13
                     12

            10                9
                 2   5    8
       4    1
                              7




The South behind bars
Percent of ex-felons disenfranchised
Percent of African-American ex-felons disenfranchised
What’s our Southern Strategy?
CHRIS KROMM
Executive Director/Publisher
chris@southernstudies.org
@chriskromm

INSTITUTE FOR SOUTHERN STUDIES
www.southernstudies.org

FACING SOUTH WEEKLY UPDATE
facingsouth@southernstudies.org
put “subscribe” in subject line



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Chris Kromm "As Goes the South"

  • 1. AS THE SOUTH GOES Chris Kromm, Institute for Southern Studies Public Interest Projects Donor Learning Institute September 27-28, 2012
  • 2.
  • 3. “You can‟t understand [the South]. You would have to be born there.” — William Faulkner “I‟m Southern, and I know neurotic behavior.” — Faye Dunaway “We are all magicians. We created the mystery of the South and we can dissolve it.” — Howard Zinn "Stop talking about the South. Long as you‟re south of the Canadian border, you’re in the South.” — Malcolm X
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. 90%+ 75%+ 45%+ Is your community in the South?
  • 10. 11 13 17
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. 13
  • 16. +8 Winners and Losers: Congressional Seats
  • 17.
  • 18. SOUTHERN 32% NON- SOUTHERN 68% Share of Electoral College
  • 20. 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE 1,500,000 MIGRATION 1,000,000 500,000 0 Newcomers fuel growth
  • 21. States with Fastest Latino/Hispanic Growth, 2000-2010 Growing Latino communities
  • 22. Map 3: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Hispanic Populations, 2000-2010 Hispanic growth rate shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Mexican contribution to Hispanic growth: >50% <50% Greenville (145%) Scranton (376%) Knoxville (208%) Indianapolis (161%) Louisville (158%) Richmond (161%) Nashville (156%) Raleigh (152%) Charlotte (153%) Little Rock (165%) Columbia (151%) Birmingham (161%) Charleston (173%) Chattanooga (163%) Cape Coral (170%) Source: Author's analysis of 2000 and 2010 decennial census data Latino communities fuel urban growth Map 4: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Asian Populations, 2000-2010 Asian growth percentage shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Indian contribution to Asian growth: >25% <25%
  • 23. 2000-2010 Growth in Total Latino Percent of State STATE Latino Eligible Voters Electorate Electorate Texas 38% 4,376,000 24.80% Florida 66% 2,100,000 16.80% Georgia 181% 194,000 2.90% North Carolina 117% 182,000 2.80% Louisiana 34% 67,000 2.50% Virginia 76% 254,000 2.20% South Carolina -2% 45,000 1.60% Arkansas 200% 48,000 1.50% Missisippi -58% 8,000 1.20% Tennessee 177% 72,000 1.10% Alabama 333% 20,000 0.90% Tennessee 177% 72,000 1.10% West Virginia 0% 5,000 0.30% The growing Southern Latino electorate
  • 25. 9 10 11 Dallas, TX 941,695 10 7 5 Los Angeles, CA 859,086 Black Change, Change Rank Metro Area Name* 2000-2010 FG G G9 , AAG9 1 1 Atlanta, GA 473,493 2 5 Dallas, TX 233,890 3 7 Houston, TX 214,928 4 3 Miami, FL 191,658 5 4 Washington, DC 155,648 6 15 Charlotte, NC 121,523 7 11 Orlando, FL 100,605 8 8 Philadelphia, PA 93,161 9 16 Minneapolis, MN 83,464 10 28 Phoenix, AZ 80,318 Source: Author’s analysis of 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial census data *Metro area names abbreviated African-American urban growth list of the metro areas with the largest black populations over time shows the re-ascendance of the th (Table 3, top panel). New York continued to hold its top ranking due to its long history as a magnet
  • 26. Map 4: Metro Areas with Fastest Growing Asian Populations, 2000-2010 Asian growth percentage shown in parentheses after metro name. Circles are colored according to the Indian contribution to Asian growth: >25% <25% Scranton (94%) Indianapolis (103%) Richmond (89%) Las Vegas (133%) Raleigh (129%) Riverside (89%) Charlotte (103%) Phoenix (105%) Austin (87%) San Antonio (89%) Lakeland (116%) Orlando (90%) Bradenton (108%) Cape Coral (149%) McAllen (122%) Source: Author's analysis of 2000 and 2010 decennial census data Asian-American community growth B BROOKINGS August 2011
  • 27. Majority People of Color counties
  • 28.
  • 29. Majority People of Color counties – age 65 and older
  • 30. Majority People of Color counties – age 18 to 34
  • 31. Majority People of Color counties – age 1 and under
  • 33. … but still a big rural presence
  • 34. Urban vs. Rural: N.C. Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment
  • 36. The war on voting
  • 37. STATE ESTIMATED VOTERS PRESIDENTIAL VOTE WITHOUT ID MARGIN 2008 N. Carolina 460,000 14,177 S. Carolina 178,175 172,447 Tennessee 216,596 391,741 Texas 600,000 950,695 The impact of photo ID laws
  • 40. 50% of people of color in the state are packed into:  3 of 13 Congressional districts (23%)  10 of 50 state Senate districts (20%)  25 of 120 state House districts (21%) North Carolina
  • 41. “[The 2011 Texas redistricting plan violated the Voting Rights Act by] diminishing the ability of citizens of the United States, on account of race, color, or membership in a language minority group, to elect their preferred candidates of choice … The only explanation Texas offers for this pattern is „coincidence.‟ But if this was coincidence, it was a striking one indeed.” — U.S. Circuit Judge Thomas B. Griffith, August 2012 Texas
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47. 3 Art Pope groups = 75% of all outside money flowing into N.C. state legislative races in 2010, giving Republicans 10-to-1 money advantage Associated Press, November 3, 2010
  • 48. Right to work (for less) states
  • 49. STATE % IN UNION North Carolina 2.9 South Carolina 3.4 Georgia 3.9 Arkansas 4.2 Louisiana 4.5 Tennessee 4.6 Virginia 4.6 Mississippi 5.0 South Dakota 5.1 Texas 5.2 Florida 6.3 Kentucky 8.9 Alabama 10.0 West Virginia 13.8 States with lowest union density
  • 51. 13 12 10 9 2 5 8 4 1 7 The South behind bars
  • 52. Percent of ex-felons disenfranchised
  • 53. Percent of African-American ex-felons disenfranchised
  • 55. CHRIS KROMM Executive Director/Publisher chris@southernstudies.org @chriskromm INSTITUTE FOR SOUTHERN STUDIES www.southernstudies.org FACING SOUTH WEEKLY UPDATE facingsouth@southernstudies.org put “subscribe” in subject line Questions/More Information

Editor's Notes

  1. Language. Source: Atlas of North American Englishhttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2012/03/28/votes-and-vowels-a-changing-accent-shows-how-language-parallels-politics/
  2. Language. Source: Atlas of North American Englishhttp://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2012/03/28/votes-and-vowels-a-changing-accent-shows-how-language-parallels-politics/
  3. One place to start is with this map from 1861, just as the Civil War was getting started. Who can tell me what the states in green are? The original 11 states of the Confederacy.