The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing

Philip Wang
Philip WangAgile Coach
公共资源、共享经济乃⾄
部⻔墙背后的系统思考
TiD2019质量竞争⼒⼤会系统思考分论坛
画出回路
病毒式营销
利⽤⽤户进⾏⾃传播,⽤户群体规模变得
越来越⼤
S
S
推荐的
⽤户数
⽤户规模 R
倒⽔
把⽔壶⾥的⽔倒到杯⼦⾥,倒8成满
S
S
实际⽔位
⽬标⽔位
⽔位差
倾斜⻆度
B
S
O
冰⼭的⼀⻆
企鹅⽣活在漂浮的冰⼭上⾯,他们知道海床上有蛤蜊, 可是他们没有⾜够的肺活量深
⼊海底打捞蛤蜊, 遥远的海象拥有技术, 可是没有资源。 有⼀天, 企鹅和海象达成
了协议:海象为企鹅收成蛤蜊, 企鹅提供蛤蜊⻝⽤权给海象作为回报,海象不可以吃
企鹅。协议达成后,⾮常成功。 越来越多的海象和企鹅也来到了这块领地。 于是有更
多的蛤蜊被打捞上来,更多的海象跑过来,更多的企鹅过来。。。根据数字统计,岛
上可以容纳百倍于当前的海象及企鹅。




更多的企鹅, 更多的海象,更多的蛤蜊过来。。。冰⼭上成⽴了花店,度假村, 蛤蜊
酒吧等等。 似乎所有的事情在向好的⽅向发展,可是⼜有点什么不对。




直到有⼀天, ⼀只海象压扁了⼀位企鹅先⽣, 导致了双⽅的冲突。 冰⼭上的领导请来
了顾问团,企鹅们也出了备忘录, 提醒海象不要压到企鹅,他们还花了昂贵的价钱请
来了顾问,⿎励每个企鹅和海象参加训练营, 作敏感度测验。 但是冲突有增⽆减,其
他的企鹅和海象听到消息,决定不搬过来了, 岛上的企鹅也在想是否打包离开。 于是
他们开始思考,是否有⼀些⼤家看不到的部分。 企鹅和海象都是地域性的动物, 但是
为什么现在才开始冲突呢?是否蛤蜊吃得太多让⼤家情绪不稳定? 或者以后改吃低蛋
⽩的⻝物? 这是⼀个很⼤的冰⼭,有⾜够的空间,为什么⼤家不分开⼀些住呢?
可⻝⽤的
蛤蜊数量
企鹅数量
+
海象数量
冰⼭的吸引⼒
冰⼭的
可使⽤空间
冲突
S
S
O
O
O
S
R B
成⻓上限
促成成⻓的要素 成⻓的情况 抑制成⻓的要素
S
S OO
S
R B
限制因素
的情况
游戏:捕⻥达⼈
1.每个渔夫⼩组讨论,写下⾃⼰每年的捕⻥期望值,放⼊渔
船⾥


2.海⾥的现存⻥量和你的期望值以及⼀点点运⽓会决定你的
收获


• If 你的期望值⼤于海⾥现存⻥量,你空仓⽽归

• Else 你收获你的期望值

• ⼤海会随机决定哪艘渔船先“捕⻥”

3.每个⼩组记录每年的期望值和收获值
每年⻥会再⽣:再⽣后⻥的总数 = 原来的⻥数< 25 ? 原来的⻥数*2 : 50
画出期望值和实际收获
的BOT
画出CLD
总体捕⻥活动
S
S
总捕⻥量
S
A船的捕⻥期望
A船的捕⻥收获
S SR
B船的捕⻥期望
B船的捕⻥收获
R
海洋的总⻥量
S
O
S
B
B
再⽣⻥量
S
O
B
公地悲剧
The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing
共地悲剧
The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing
如何解决问题?
共享经济
共享单⻋
• 2014年,ofo成⽴,初期仅在北⼤校园内供学⽣使⽤,⽽后迅速蹿红,扫码、⽆桩、电⼦锁等设计引爆媒
体社交平台,共享单⻋在街头巷尾被热议。第⼀个吃螃蟹的⼈也牢牢占据着⽇后的⾏业榜单:据统计,截
⾄2015年10⽉底,ofo单⻋投放数量仅2万辆,2017这⼀数字达到了2300万。

• ⽬睹了ofo、摩拜等企业成功的初试⽔,2016年开始,诸多共享单⻋企业纷纷⼊场。据不完全统计,2016
年有超过20多家共享单⻋企业共存。同时,各公司纷纷融资,⼀年间,共享单⻋⾏业融资额超过了30亿
元,除了ofo、摩拜以外,⼩鸣单⻋、⼩蓝单⻋等中⼩规模企业迅速崛起。伴随着⼀轮轮的融资,共享单
⻋⾏业看起来似乎充满了前景与活⼒。与此同时,共享单⻋⽤户规模持续增⻓,2016年共享单⻋的⽤户规
模达到了1886万⼈,同⽐增⻓达到惊⼈的700%。

• 硬件成本烧钱、运营成本过⾼、价格战下微薄的收⼊等原因渐渐让单⻋企业捉襟⻅肘;对于“互联⽹单⻋
企业“、”共享经济“等概念过了新鲜劲的⽤户也渐渐失去了骑⾏的动⼒;执着于造⻋占领市场、忽视打造硬
件的企业没能给⽤户提供更舒适的乘⻋体验……在这种恶性循环下,共享单⻋逐渐成为了⽤户和投资⽅眼
中的”鸡肋“。

• 2016年融资额排名第三的⼩鸣单⻋,在2018年3⽉宣告破产,成为了⾸个破产的共享单⻋品牌。继⼩鸣单
⻋之后,酷奇单⻋、悟空单⻋等企业也因类似的原因相继停运、倒闭。2018年2⽉时,交通运输部副部⻓
刘⼩明透露,全国77家共享单⻋企业中有20余家倒闭或者停⽌运营。2018年12⽉下旬开始,ofo深陷退押
⾦⼤潮。
The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing
共享资源的规模
资源使⽤率
对消费者
的吸引⼒
成本
收益
S
O
O
S
对资源共享者
的吸引⼒
价格
R
R
S
S
S
O
对公共环境的破坏
对公共服务的需求
B S
政府控制
的⼒度
对既有经济的冲击
固定成本
运营成本
共享资源的规模
资源使⽤率
对消费者
的吸引⼒
成本
收益
S
O
O
S
对资源共享者
的吸引⼒
价格
R
R
S
S
S
O
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
B
B
部⻔墙
⾼优先级任务的总数量
S
S
⾼优先级任务
的平均响应时间
S
销售A把⽀持任务贴为
⾼优先级的数量
销售A的⽬标达成
S
S
R
销售B把⽀持任务贴为
⾼优先级的数量
销售B的⽬标达成
R
⽀持团队⼯作在
⾼优先级
任务的容量
S
O
S
B
B
S
S
1 of 27

Recommended

Self organized team is a by-product by
Self organized team is a by-productSelf organized team is a by-product
Self organized team is a by-productPhilip Wang
77 views19 slides
Look at agile starting from thermodynamics by
Look at agile starting from thermodynamicsLook at agile starting from thermodynamics
Look at agile starting from thermodynamicsPhilip Wang
119 views24 slides
Docker ata glance by
Docker ata glanceDocker ata glance
Docker ata glancePhilip Wang
828 views18 slides
From a traditional project manager to an agile leader by
From a traditional project manager to an agile leaderFrom a traditional project manager to an agile leader
From a traditional project manager to an agile leaderPhilip Wang
267 views15 slides
摄影基础(一) by
摄影基础(一)摄影基础(一)
摄影基础(一)Philip Wang
1.1K views16 slides
Xi An Jiao Tong University 2005 by
Xi An Jiao Tong University 2005Xi An Jiao Tong University 2005
Xi An Jiao Tong University 2005Philip Wang
374 views21 slides

More Related Content

Recently uploaded

20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf by
20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf
20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf懂能源團隊
10 views38 slides
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf by
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf懂能源團隊
12 views17 slides
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核 by
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核懂能源團隊
20 views31 slides
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》 by
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》huoco
5 views1 slide
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf by
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf懂能源團隊
8 views25 slides
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf by
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf懂能源團隊
8 views38 slides

Recently uploaded(8)

20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf by 懂能源團隊
20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf
20230829國際城市能源治理案例v4.pdf
懂能源團隊10 views
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf by 懂能源團隊
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf
20230829_桃園市虛擬電廠亮點案例分享.pdf
懂能源團隊12 views
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核 by 懂能源團隊
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核
永續能源的挑戰:漁電共生環社檢核
懂能源團隊20 views
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》 by huoco
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》
《购买亚利桑那大学毕业证成绩单》
huoco5 views
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf by 懂能源團隊
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf
2023地方能源治理培力課程-社區連結與議題實踐推動的可能230822v1.pdf
懂能源團隊8 views
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf by 懂能源團隊
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf
20230829_地方能源治理培力課程_縣市級能源數據基礎分析.pdf
懂能源團隊8 views
20230829_地方培力工作坊_住宅用電分析與節電策略分享_v1.pdf by 懂能源團隊
20230829_地方培力工作坊_住宅用電分析與節電策略分享_v1.pdf20230829_地方培力工作坊_住宅用電分析與節電策略分享_v1.pdf
20230829_地方培力工作坊_住宅用電分析與節電策略分享_v1.pdf
懂能源團隊8 views
20230822 如何有效行銷能源政策_陳敦源教授_v2.pdf by 懂能源團隊
20230822 如何有效行銷能源政策_陳敦源教授_v2.pdf20230822 如何有效行銷能源政策_陳敦源教授_v2.pdf
20230822 如何有效行銷能源政策_陳敦源教授_v2.pdf
懂能源團隊9 views

Featured

ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd by
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
28K views69 slides
Getting into the tech field. what next by
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
6.6K views22 slides
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent by
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
6.9K views99 slides
How to have difficult conversations by
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations Rajiv Jayarajah, MAppComm, ACC
5.6K views19 slides
Introduction to Data Science by
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceChristy Abraham Joy
82.6K views51 slides
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices by
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
169.8K views42 slides

Featured(20)

ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd by Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
Clark Boyd28K views
Getting into the tech field. what next by Tessa Mero
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
Tessa Mero6.6K views
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent by Lily Ray
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Lily Ray6.9K views
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices by Vit Horky
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Vit Horky169.8K views
The six step guide to practical project management by MindGenius
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
MindGenius36.7K views
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright... by RachelPearson36
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
RachelPearson3612.7K views
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present... by Applitools
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Applitools55.5K views
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work by GetSmarter
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
GetSmarter401.7K views
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G... by DevGAMM Conference
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
DevGAMM Conference3.6K views
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation by Erica Santiago
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationBarbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Erica Santiago25.1K views
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well by Saba Software
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them wellGood Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Saba Software25.3K views
Introduction to C Programming Language by Simplilearn
Introduction to C Programming LanguageIntroduction to C Programming Language
Introduction to C Programming Language
Simplilearn8.5K views
The Pixar Way: 37 Quotes on Developing and Maintaining a Creative Company (fr... by Palo Alto Software
The Pixar Way: 37 Quotes on Developing and Maintaining a Creative Company (fr...The Pixar Way: 37 Quotes on Developing and Maintaining a Creative Company (fr...
The Pixar Way: 37 Quotes on Developing and Maintaining a Creative Company (fr...
Palo Alto Software88.4K views
9 Tips for a Work-free Vacation by Weekdone.com
9 Tips for a Work-free Vacation9 Tips for a Work-free Vacation
9 Tips for a Work-free Vacation
Weekdone.com7.2K views
How to Map Your Future by SlideShop.com
How to Map Your FutureHow to Map Your Future
How to Map Your Future
SlideShop.com275.1K views

The challenge the 'sharing economy' is facing