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Patrick Boisson
Dr. Long/ Dr. Krysko
POLSC/HIST 810
15Nov2015/ Prospectus First Draft
Chinese Public Opinion Through the lens of Mass Incidents
To what extent does public opinion drive policy making in China? This is the
over riding research question that this project will attempt to shed some light on
and achieve a greater degree of understanding on. The purpose of this research
question in regards to China is to better understand how domestic public concern
drives overall policymaking. The relationship between the Chinese public and the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been selected as the focus of this study due to
the repressive nature of CCP policies, which do not permit the freedom of
expression, enjoyed by democratic states. These repressive policies represent the
major hurdle that prevent this project or any project at this point in time for coming
remotely close to showing the true relationship between Chinese public opinion and
overall policy decision making.
The question then becomes, how is it possible to determine how public
opinion of Chinese citizens drives policy making when freedom of expression and
public opinion is so tightly regulated? This paper approaches this problem with an
indirect method, that method involves using “mass incidents” by Chinese citizens as
an indicator in understanding the dynamic between the Chinese public and the CCP.
This project supports the argument that in regards to mass incidents in China,
public opinion is of paramount concern to the CCP and that without mass incidents
the survival of the CCP regime would be threatened. Additionally this paper
theorizes that mass incidents have the potential to become a direct threat to the

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CCP’s regime in China in the event that institutional governing practices are not
addressed at the local level, and if Internet control see’s a continued trend of
upward mass Internet incidents. This theory is supported by the increasing levels of
violence that mass incidents have been taking on over the years while additionally
also seeing another trend of mass incidents over the Internet also increasing in
magnitude over the years as well.
While there is a strong body of literature already devoted to understanding
mass incidents in China from 1989 through the mid 2000’s, there appears to be
more research needed in analyzing the trends of mass incidents in the present
decade. This project attempts to add a positive contribution to the current body of
literature on mass incidents in China by recognizing the CCP’s ability to use mass
incidents as a means towards policy reform while also acknowledging the potential
that the internet and technology has in defining the magnitude and nature of mass
incidents.
The relevant literature that this project attempts to build upon lies with the
contributions made by the following: Yanqi Tong and Shaohua Lei’s “Large-Scale
Mass Incidents and Government Responses in China.” Andrew Wedeman’s “Enemies
of the State: Mass Incidents and Subversion in China.” Murray Scot Tanner’s “China
Rethinks Unrest.” And Ashley Esarey and Xiao Qiang’s “Digital Communication and
Political Change in China.” This project will identify the key arguments and
conclusions made by each source and how they combine to support this projects
argument and theory.

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Beginning with Yanqi Tong and Shaohua Lei’s “Large Mass Incidents and
Government Responses in China” the major theme focuses on identifying different
types of mass incidents experienced in China while additionally identifying which
type of mass incident is most threatening to the CCP’s regime in China. Additionally
the authors provide reasoning for how the CCP uses mass incidents as a means of
making institutional and political reform to ensure social stability in China. This
outlook on how the CCP utilizes mass incidents as a means for survival is incredibly
useful in attempting to understand the role that public opinion plays in policy
reform in China. Additionally the type of mass incidence that the authors provide as
being the actual threat to the CCP’s regime in China is illuminating and helps to
better understand possibly why the CCP is so motivated to control internet traffic.
The authors categories of large scale mass incidents involve: labor disputes,
land and relocation disputes, disturbances and riots, ethnic conflicts, protests from
the middle class, and disappearing types.1 The importance of this categorization lies
with authors contributing to the overall definition of mass incidents. According to
the Ministry of Public Security, large-scale mass incidents refer to a mass incident
with more than 500 participants.2 This categorization helps the reader understand
the context of specific large-scale incidents opposed to simply knowing that more
than 500 citizens were apart of the incident itself.
1 Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses
in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.
2
Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses
in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.

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The key importance of these categories and the data that they yield lies with
the authors conclusions. Those conclusions being that the overall upsurge of large-
scale mass incidents in recent years is a reflection of increased social tensions in
China due to the structural changes of state owned enterprises, widening income
disparities, and growing rights awareness on the part of the population. Additionally
the most threatening of these categories is the non-economic interest driven mass
incidents that fall under the disturbances and riots category.3 This is because mass
incidents that are triggered by economic grievances have clear demands that have
the ability to be settled quickly by the parties involved or if the central government
needs to step in if necessary to help with funding. Social disturbances are the most
threatening to the regime in China because a social disturbance involves the
majority of the participants not having a particular demand or direct interest, but
simply wanting to disturb the public order while a riot is the more radical form of
disturbance in which gathering crowds are committing acts of violence.4
The final conclusion is that the root cause of the social tension and distrust of
the government lies with poor local governance.5 The importance behind the poor
governance at the local level is in how the central government utilizes these mass
incidents as a means to evaluate how local governments perform under pressure.
3
Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses
in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.
4
Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses
in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.
5
Tong, Yanqi, and Shaohua Lei. "Large-scale mass incidents and government responses
in China." International Journal of China Studies 1, no. 2 (2010): 487-508.

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Mass incidents serve as almost a science experiment in this regards where the
central government can observe what policies or decisions went right and wrong
and then move on to possibly make institutional changes to prevent such mass
incidents from recurring under the same conditions. The key aspect of these mass
incidents is that the mass incidents themselves are localized and isolated incidents
which means they generally strictly apply only the province themselves and not
China as a whole.
In regards to Andrew Wedeman’s “Enemies of the State: Mass Incidents and
Subversion in China,” Professor Wedeman contributes to the subject of mass
incidents by analyzing the mass incidents from 1990 to 2008 attempting to
determine if the CCP regime faces challenges from organized subversive groups or if
the mass incidents have remained as disorganized protests. In the process of
answering this question, Professor Wedeman helps shed light on defining the
magnitude and composition of these mass incidents in general.
Wedeman’s conclusions support Yanqi Tong and Shaohua Lei’s analysis that
although mass incidents have increased significantly, the majority of unrest is
largely incoherent and disorganized and that the mass incidents are not associated
with broader political issues but rather on specific local grievances.6 Wedeman’s key
contribution that differentiates himself from Yanqi Tong and Shaohua Lei lies in his
subversion findings in which there is evidence of organized subversion, this same
subversion is disorganized and fragmented effort and that there is very little
6
Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In
APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009.

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common ground upon which to base a broad subversive challenge to the existing
political order.7 Lastly Wedeman provides a quote from CCP Party Secretary Shi
Zongyuan who states that much of the blame for the rising discontent lies with local
officials who rather than deal with local problems, disregards legitimate complaints
and force citizens to take grievances to the streets.8
In regards to Murray Scot Tanner’s “China Rethinks Unrest” the key
contribution to the subject of mass incidents lies with her ability to highlight the
importance that these mass incidents are taking on as seen as how China’s police
and security officials are struggling to deal with the consequences of these
increasing levels of unrest. The key conclusion from Tanner’s analysis that aligns
with the previous two articles runs with the theme of institutional failure. Tanner
goes on to state how critiques argue that mass protest are to some extent an
inevitable product of socioeconomic development, but are exacerbated when
political and legal institutions fail to keep up with change, and that when citizens
have not learned how to voice demands through the available political and legal
channels, or if those channels are clogged or underdeveloped, frustration inevitably
spills over into the streets.9
7
Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In
APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009.
8
Wedeman, Andrew. "Enemies of the state: mass incidents and subversion in China." In
APSA 2009 Toronto Meeting Paper. 2009.
9
Tanner, Murray Scot. "China rethinks unrest." Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (2004):
137-156.

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The last article by Ashley Esarey and Xiao Qiang focuses less on mass
incidents and more on how the CCP has experienced three phases of information
regime change while also highlighting how the CCP controls the Internet to control
and guide political expression. The key conclusion from this analysis is that mass
self communication via blogs and other media enables freedom of speech and
political participation, even in authoritarian regimes. This applies directly to China
because due to China’s vast size, activists had difficulty creating linkages with
activists elsewhere, who may have had similar concerns or been willing to support a
popular movement. Through the use of modern technology like blogs, online video
clips, email, and text messages, activists can utilize interactive relationships to
garner broad support for their causes.10
The additional piece of data worth mentioning is in reference to “mass
Internet incidents” which involve one million or more visits to a web site by users.
In 2003, there were two mass Internet incidents and by 2009 the number of mass
Internet incidents had risen to 12.11 The significance of these large-scale mass
Internet incidents is not only are they increasing in frequency but that their effects
are very real in forcing change. This is apparent in their contributions to: the
abolition of the custody and repatriation system for migrant workers, the halting of
state-sponsored urban development projects, the overhaul of the criminal justice
system to reduce abuse of inmates in prisons, the reconsideration of a murder case
10
Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in
China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22.
11
Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in
China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22.

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involving the slaying of a local official, and the investigation and dismissal of
numerous local party leaders.12
What the first three articles share in common is that there is undoubtedly
institutional failure at the local level, which is arguably one of the key causal factors
in preventing the outbreak of mass incidents in China. Due to mass incidents being
primarily driven by economic grievances most are local in nature and for this reason
are not a subversive threat to the CCP’s regime. The CCP is able to use these local
mass incidents to their advantage to garner more legitimacy for stepping in when
needed and attempting to learn from the local government mistakes and then to
promote institutional reform without having to acknowledge it.
The key to the CCP maintaining social stability lies with keeping mass
incidents local and keeping the number of mass incidents that are non-economic
driven as low as possible since the social disturbances and riot have the greatest
potential for being subversive in nature and spiraling out of control the quickest.
Since keeping mass incidents unorganized appears to be a major strength for the
CCP in making institutional change at the local government level, naturally one of
the largest threats to this form of learning through failure would be in the CCP’s
inability to control Internet liberalization. The Internet has the potential to spread
activist and subversive behavior around China and could be used as a means to
bring a larger sense of purpose towards a mass incident. In order to further support
this hypothesis this project needs more information in regards to the number of
12
Esarey, Ashley, and Qiang Xiao. "Digital communication and political change in
China." International Journal of Communication 5 (2011): 22.

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mass internet incidents since 2009 and to find additional information on mass
incidents in China between 2010 to 2015 to see if mass incidents have continued
their increasing frequency and increasing levels of violence.