Baird conference investor presentation final wo video wo notes.ptx
1. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Oshkosh Corporation
(NYSE:OSK)
Baird’s 2015 Industrial Conference
November 10, 2015
2. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Forward-Looking Statements
2November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference
This presentation contains statements that the Company believes to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation,
statements regarding the Company’s future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital
expenditures, debt levels and cash flows, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking
statements. When used in this presentation, words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,”
“should,” “project” or “plan” or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology are generally intended to identify
forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks,
uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, some of which are beyond the Company’s control, which could cause actual results to
differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors include the cyclical nature of the
Company’s access equipment, commercial and fire & emergency markets, which are particularly impacted by the strength of U.S.
and European economies; the Company’s estimates of access equipment demand; the strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on
Company exports, translation of foreign sales and purchased materials; the expected level and timing of U.S. Department of Defense
(“DoD”) and international defense customer procurement of products and services and funding thereof; risks related to reductions in
government expenditures in light of U.S. defense budget pressures, sequestration and an uncertain DoD tactical wheeled vehicle
strategy; risks related to the Company’s future defense segment sales as a result of the outcome of a competitor’s protest of the
JLTV production contract award to the Company; the Company’s ability to finalize an international contract for more than 1,000
M-ATVs, with the majority of the units sold in fiscal 2016; the Company’s ability to increase prices to raise margins or offset higher
input costs; increasing commodity and other raw material costs, particularly in a sustained economic recovery; risks related to
facilities expansion, consolidation and alignment, including the amounts of related costs and charges and that anticipated cost
savings may not be achieved; global economic uncertainty, which could lead to additional impairment charges related to many of the
Company’s intangible assets and/or a slower recovery in the Company’s cyclical businesses than Company or equity market
expectations; projected adoption rates of work at height machinery in emerging markets; the impact of severe weather or natural
disasters that may affect the Company, its suppliers or its customers; risks related to the collectability of receivables, particularly for
those businesses with exposure to construction markets; the cost of any warranty campaigns related to the Company’s products;
risks related to production or shipment delays arising from quality or production issues; risks associated with international operations
and sales, including compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; the Company’s ability to comply with complex laws and
regulations applicable to U.S. government contractors; cybersecurity risks and costs of defending against, mitigating and responding
to a data security breach; and risks related to the Company’s ability to successfully execute on its strategic road map and meet its
long-term financial goals. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in the Company’s filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. The Company
assumes no obligation, and disclaims any obligation, to update information contained in this presentation. Investors should be aware
that the Company may not update such information until the Company’s next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.
3. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Oshkosh Corporation
Leading provider of specialty
vehicles
– Moving the World at Work
Nearly 100 years in business;
incorporated in 1917
Serial innovator of game changing
new products
Market Capitalization(1):$3.3 billion
FY15 Revenue: $6.1 billion
Focused on delivering value to
customers and shareholders
3
(1) As of November 2, 2015
Access Equipment Defense Fire & Emergency Commercial
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference
4. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Oshkosh Corporation Profile - FY15
4Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference November 10, 2015
56%
15%
13%
16%
Revenue by Segment
Access Equipment Defense Fire & Emergency Commercial
79%
5%
9%
7%
Revenue by Geography
United States Other NA EAME Rest of World
Continuing to evolve to a more global industrial
− Defense growing faster than other segments
5. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
FY15 Results Compared with FY14
NetSales
(billions)
AdjustedEPS**
OSK Full Year Performance
* Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results.
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$6.1
$6.8
$3.02
$3.62
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
FY15 FY14
Net Sales Adjusted EPS*
Full year results negatively
impacted by:
– Trough in Defense earnings
– Mid-cycle dip in Access
Equipment demand
Set foundation for strong
Defense earnings growth
Sustained margin enhancement
at Fire & Emergency and
Commercial
Repurchased 4.9 million shares
or 6.1% of outstanding shares
Announced 12% dividend
increase effective November
FY16 EPS estimate range of
$3.00 to $3.40
6. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Expectations for FY16
Additional expectations
Corporate expenses of $145 - $150 million
Tax rate of ~ 34%
CapEx of ~ $100 million
Free Cash Flow* ~ $350 million
Assumes share count of ~ 75 million
Segment information
Revenues of ~ $6.2 - $6.5 billion
Operating income of $400 million to $440 million
EPS of $3.00 to $3.40
* Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results.
6
Quarterly commentary
Earnings weighted to second half
Increased international M-ATV sales
Seasonality
Cautious construction equipment customers
First quarter slightly profitable
Measure Access
Equipment Defense Fire &
Emergency Commercial
Sales
(billions)
$2.9 to $3.05 ~ $1.55 ~ $0.9 ~ $1.0
Operating
Income Margin
~ 10.5% ~ 8.75% ~ 6.0% ~ 7.0%
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference
7. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Positive Near-Term Outlook
Despite Some Short-Term Challenges
Access Equipment segment
– Softer Q1/Q2 demand
– Actively managing costs and
inventory levels
– Strong underlying drivers
Fire & Emergency and
Commercial segments
– Higher market shares
– Higher margin initiatives
– Higher backlog at Y/E FY15
Defense segment
– Pursuing significant international
growth opportunities for FY16 & FY17
– Re-started FHTV production
– Aftermarket opportunities growing
– Won U.S. DoD JLTV contract
Raises Oshkosh profile with DoD
Provides strong Defense business base
beginning in FY18
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8. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
Oshkosh L-ATV is JLTV
Anything Else is Something Less
Named winner of intensive competition
on August 25, 2015
Program requirements of ~55,000
vehicles over 20+ years
– Oshkosh contract valued at $6.7B for
~17,000 vehicles over 8 years
– Full rate production begins in 3+ years
Highly protected, extreme mobility,
affordable
Oshkosh viewed in new light by DoD
Significant international interest
Confident to retain contract following
protest
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9. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
MOVE Strategy Driving Performance…
Focuses on drivers that
create highest
shareholder value
Supports higher margin
targets across non-
defense businesses over
the cycle
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…In FY16 and Beyond
10. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
70
75
80
85
90
95
09/30/12 09/30/13 09/30/14 09/30/15
# Outstanding Shares
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E
Annualized Dividend Payment
Aggressively retiring shares at favorable prices; $805 million allocated
to share repurchases in FY13 - FY15
Reinstated dividend in December 2013; increased twice in two years
(1.65% yield (2))
(1) Total shareholder return
(2) As of October 30, 2015
E = Estimated
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 10
~21% Reduction
~27% Increase
Capital Allocation Contributing to TSR (1)
Disciples of “The Outsiders”
11. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
What to Expect from Oshkosh?
MOVE strategy evolves
– Margin improvement
– Launch game-changing new
products
– Compete vigorously for business
around the world
Defense driving growth
– Strong demand for international M-ATVs
– JLTV award is historic; expect contract
award to Oshkosh to be affirmed
Attacking costs in Access Equipment
segment; expect strong 2H FY16
Continued growth in Fire & Emergency
and Commercial segments results
11November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference
12. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
What to Expect from Oshkosh?
MOVE strategy evolves
– Margin improvement
– Launch game-changing new
products
– Compete vigorously for business
around the world
Defense driving growth
– Strong demand for international M-ATVs
– JLTV award is historic; expect contract
award to Oshkosh to be affirmed
Attacking costs in Access Equipment
segment; expect strong 2H FY16
Continued growth in Fire & Emergency
and Commercial segments results
12November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference
13. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
For information
contact:
Patrick N. Davidson
Vice President, Investor Relations
(920) 966-5939
pdavidson@oshkoshcorp.com
13
Jeffrey D. Watt
Director, Investor Relations
(920) 233-9406
jwatt@oshkoshcorp.com
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 13
14. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
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Appendix: Consolidated Results
(Dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
Fiscal Year Comments
Net Sales $6,098.1 $6,808.2
% Change (10.4)% (11.2)%
Adjusted
Operating Income** $398.1 $512.2
% Change (22.3)% (4.2)%
% Margin 6.5% 7.5%
Adjusted EPS** $3.02 $3.62
% Change (16.6)% (3.2)%
2015 2014
** Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results.
Sales impacted by:
Lower Defense and Access
Equipment segment sales
Unfavorable foreign currency
Higher Fire & Emergency and
Commercial segment sales
EPS impacted by:
Lower Access Equipment and
Defense segment results
Higher tax rate
Higher Fire & Emergency and
Commercial segment results
Lower Corporate expenses
Lower share count
15. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
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Fiscal Year Comments
Appendix: Access Equipment
(Dollars in millions)
Net Sales $3,400.6 $3,506.5
% Change (3.0)% 12.4%
Adjusted
Operating Income* $409.5 $501.1
% Change (18.3)% 28.9%
% Margin 12.0% 14.3%
2015 2014
* Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results.
Sales impacted by:
Unfavorable foreign currency
Lower North America demand
Higher European demand
Operating income impacted by:
Unfavorable product mix
Unfavorable production
variances
Lower incentive compensation
expense
Backlog down 45% vs. prior
year to $210 million
16. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 16
Fiscal Year Comments
(Dollars in millions)
2015 2014
Appendix: Defense
Net Sales $939.8 $1,724.5
% Change (45.5)% (43.5)%
Adjusted
Operating Income* $5.8 $85.3
% Change (93.1)% (62.7)%
% Margin 0.6% 4.9%
* Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results.
Sales impacted by:
Lower FHTV and FMTV sales
M-ATV reset volume
International M-ATV sales
Operating income impacted by:
Lower sales volume
Lower SG&A
Backlog up 81% vs. prior year
to $1.4 billion, including $0.1
billion related to JLTV contract
award
17. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 17
Fiscal Year Comments
(Dollars in millions)
2015 2014
Appendix: Fire & Emergency
Net Sales $815.1 $756.5
% Change 7.8% (4.5)%
Operating Income $43.8 $26.6
% Change 64.5% 11.7%
% Margin 5.4% 3.5%
Sales impacted by:
Higher fire apparatus volume
Operating income impacted by:
Higher sales volume
Higher pricing
Favorable absorption
Backlog up 39% vs. prior year
to $790.7 million
18. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 18
Fiscal Year Comments
(Dollars in millions)
2015 2014
Appendix: Commercial
Net Sales $978.0 $865.9
% Change 12.9% 12.9%
Operating Income $64.5 $53.9
% Change 19.7% 30.5%
% Margin 6.6% 6.2%
Sales impacted by:
Higher RCV volume
Lower concrete mixer volume
Operating income impacted by:
Higher sales volume
Stronger mix of RCV sales
MOVE investments
Backlog up 20.7% vs. prior
year to $193 million
19. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
November 10, 2015Baird's 2015 Industrial Conference 19
Appendix:
Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliation
• The table below presents a reconciliation of the Company’s presented non-GAAP measures to the most directly
comparable GAAP measures (in millions, except per share amounts):
2015 2014
Adjusted earnings per share - diluted (non-GAAP) 3.02$ 3.62$
Reduction of valuation allowance on net operating
loss carryforward - 0.14
Debt extinguishment costs, net of tax (0.12) (0.08)
Pension and OPEB curtailment/settlement, net of tax 0.03 0.01
Contract pricing adjustment for OPEB costs, net of tax - (0.08)
Workforce reduction charges, net of tax (0.03) -
Earnings per share - diluted (GAAP) 2.90$ 3.61$
Fiscal 2016
Expectations
Net cash flows provided by operating activities 475.0$
Additions to property, plant and equipment (100.0)
Net additions to equipment held for rental (25.0)
Free cash flow 350.0$
September 30,
Fiscal Year Ended,
20. MOVING THE WORLD AT WORK
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Appendix:
Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliation
• The table below presents a reconciliation of the Company’s presented non-GAAP measures to the most directly
comparable GAAP measures (in millions):
2015 2014
Adjusted consolidated operating income (non-GAAP) 398.1$ 512.2$
Pension and OPEB curtailment/settlement 3.4 1.8
Contract pricing adjustment for OPEB costs - (10.7)
Workforce reduction charges (2.9) -
Consolidated operating income (GAAP) 398.6$ 503.3$
Adjusted access equipment segment operating
income (non-GAAP) 409.5$ 501.1$
Workforce reduction charges (2.5) -
Access equipment segment operating income (GAAP) 407.0$ 501.1$
Adjusted defense operating income (non-GAAP) 5.8$ 85.3$
Pension and OPEB curtailment/settlement 3.4 1.8
Contract pricing adjustment for OPEB costs - (10.7)
Defense segment operating income (GAAP) 9.2$ 76.4$
Fiscal Year Ended
September 30,