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78th East Jour Fix of the ONB and WiiW
“Ukraine-Progress of Reforms and Challenges Ahead”
February, 26, 2016
Vienna, Austria
Reform Progress and
the Way Forward
Olena Bilan
2
Reform Agenda
• After years of mismanagement, nearly
every aspect of economic and political life
in Ukraine needs reform
• The key question is not whether the
country must implement reforms but
where the authorities should start the
process
3
Most Pressing Areas
Persistent
Corruption
Inefficient
Energy Sector
Excessive
Regulation
Civil Service
Bureaucracy
Badly Managed
Financial Sector
Expert
Opinion
Poll
1.5
0.4
2.6
2.2 2.1
0.4
1.7
1.2
1.6
1.2
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Acceptable pace of reforms
- 4 -
Progress in Reforming Legislation…
iMoRe
1.2
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.3
0.8
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
iMoRe
Governance & Anti-corruption
Public Finance
Financial Sector
Business Regulation
Energy Independence
- 5 -
…in Key Economic Areas
Average
score since
end-2014
- 6 -
Successfully Implemented Reforms
Banking Sector
Energy Sector
Public Procurement
Patrol Police
- 7 -
Banking Sector Reform: Key Steps
Clean-up
Ownership
Transparency
Related Party
Lending
NBU Independence
Deposit
Guarantee Fund
restructuring
IFRS
67 out of 180 banks (25% of
system assets) recognized as
problematic
Legal
loopholes
closed, NBU
authorized
to punish
violators
Enhanced criteria, tighter control,
Big-4 audit for top-20 banks, RPL
reduction plan
- 8 -
Banking Sector Reform: Impact
More Stable System
More Transparent System
Efficient redistribution of resources
Support economic growth
- 9 -
Energy Sector Reform: Key Steps
•Household gas prices
hiked 3-5 x in Apr-2015
•To reach import price
parity by 2017
•Naftogaz corporate
governance
•Electricity tariffs hike
•Phase-out pf price
discounts on oil sold by
state owned companies
•Opens sector to
competition
•Brings regulation in line
with EU Third Energy
Package
•
Import
diversi-
fication
Gas
Market
Law
Gas
Tariffs
Other
92%
75%
37%
0
10
20
30
40
2013 2014 2015
Gas Imports (bcm)
EU Russia
- 10 -
Energy Sector Reform: Impact
Lower dependence on Russia
Less corruption in gas and oil sectors
Smaller burden on state budget
Energy-savings technologies
- 11 -
E-Procurement: Key Steps
Pilot Project
In Feb-2015 Economy
Ministry partnered
with a group of
volunteers to launch
pilot e-procurement
project ProZorro.org
12-18% price
reduction
EUR 20m savings
Access to WTO procurement market
Domestic legislation
harmonized with with
WTO rules
Local businesses can
access $1.7trln WTO
public procurement
market in 2016
New legislation
New public
procurement law
requires expanding
pilot project to all
state institutions by
Aug-2016
- 12 -
E-Procurement: Impact
3.0% GDP
annual
savings
Lower
corruption
More
Competition
Exports
promotion
Access to WTO
public procurement
market
- 13 -
New Patrol Police
Key fact
• New people selected by rigorous testing
• Three-month training, incl. by American instructors
• Decent salary (3 times that of old “militsia”)
• Change in philosophy: protection, not punishment
Achievements
• Brand new institution that enjoys strong public support:
3rd most trusted after army and local authorities
• Perceived to be least corrupt state agency, while old
“militsia” was perceived to be the most corrupt
- 14 -
Way Forward
Judicial system and prosecutor office
• Most corrupt institution based on popular opinion
• The major bottleneck for investment and business
development
Civil service
• New reform-minded people at the top level only
• Most of the civil servants are incompetent/corrupt and low-
paid people
• Overlapping and redundant functions
State-Owned Enterprises
• One of the major sources of corruption and waste of state
funds
• Reform and privatization stalled by vested interests

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Ukraine: Reform Progress and the Way Forward

  • 1. 78th East Jour Fix of the ONB and WiiW “Ukraine-Progress of Reforms and Challenges Ahead” February, 26, 2016 Vienna, Austria Reform Progress and the Way Forward Olena Bilan
  • 2. 2 Reform Agenda • After years of mismanagement, nearly every aspect of economic and political life in Ukraine needs reform • The key question is not whether the country must implement reforms but where the authorities should start the process
  • 3. 3 Most Pressing Areas Persistent Corruption Inefficient Energy Sector Excessive Regulation Civil Service Bureaucracy Badly Managed Financial Sector Expert Opinion Poll
  • 5. 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 iMoRe Governance & Anti-corruption Public Finance Financial Sector Business Regulation Energy Independence - 5 - …in Key Economic Areas Average score since end-2014
  • 6. - 6 - Successfully Implemented Reforms Banking Sector Energy Sector Public Procurement Patrol Police
  • 7. - 7 - Banking Sector Reform: Key Steps Clean-up Ownership Transparency Related Party Lending NBU Independence Deposit Guarantee Fund restructuring IFRS 67 out of 180 banks (25% of system assets) recognized as problematic Legal loopholes closed, NBU authorized to punish violators Enhanced criteria, tighter control, Big-4 audit for top-20 banks, RPL reduction plan
  • 8. - 8 - Banking Sector Reform: Impact More Stable System More Transparent System Efficient redistribution of resources Support economic growth
  • 9. - 9 - Energy Sector Reform: Key Steps •Household gas prices hiked 3-5 x in Apr-2015 •To reach import price parity by 2017 •Naftogaz corporate governance •Electricity tariffs hike •Phase-out pf price discounts on oil sold by state owned companies •Opens sector to competition •Brings regulation in line with EU Third Energy Package • Import diversi- fication Gas Market Law Gas Tariffs Other 92% 75% 37% 0 10 20 30 40 2013 2014 2015 Gas Imports (bcm) EU Russia
  • 10. - 10 - Energy Sector Reform: Impact Lower dependence on Russia Less corruption in gas and oil sectors Smaller burden on state budget Energy-savings technologies
  • 11. - 11 - E-Procurement: Key Steps Pilot Project In Feb-2015 Economy Ministry partnered with a group of volunteers to launch pilot e-procurement project ProZorro.org 12-18% price reduction EUR 20m savings Access to WTO procurement market Domestic legislation harmonized with with WTO rules Local businesses can access $1.7trln WTO public procurement market in 2016 New legislation New public procurement law requires expanding pilot project to all state institutions by Aug-2016
  • 12. - 12 - E-Procurement: Impact 3.0% GDP annual savings Lower corruption More Competition Exports promotion Access to WTO public procurement market
  • 13. - 13 - New Patrol Police Key fact • New people selected by rigorous testing • Three-month training, incl. by American instructors • Decent salary (3 times that of old “militsia”) • Change in philosophy: protection, not punishment Achievements • Brand new institution that enjoys strong public support: 3rd most trusted after army and local authorities • Perceived to be least corrupt state agency, while old “militsia” was perceived to be the most corrupt
  • 14. - 14 - Way Forward Judicial system and prosecutor office • Most corrupt institution based on popular opinion • The major bottleneck for investment and business development Civil service • New reform-minded people at the top level only • Most of the civil servants are incompetent/corrupt and low- paid people • Overlapping and redundant functions State-Owned Enterprises • One of the major sources of corruption and waste of state funds • Reform and privatization stalled by vested interests