Artigo publicado na Revista EXAME no dia 02/01/2015

1. Lucas Amorim - Revista EXAME 02/01/2015
It is the right time to invest in Brazil says American investor Sam Zell to EXAME
magazine -
São Paulo - At 73 years, the American investor Sam Zell, the world specialist in
buying and selling real estate, spends more than 200 days a year away from his
office in Chicago. He received EXAME in the suite of a São Paulo hotel
Tuesday morning, only 1 hour after arriving in the United States and a few days
to embark again. Recently been in countries that are far from the radar of the
main investors in the world, such as Libya and Mongolia. For Zell, this
curiosity is essential when it comes to sniffing out good opportunities and,
especially, to swim against the current. He specializes in buying companies
neglected by competition and jump off at the right time. In 2007, on the eve of
the US crisis, closed the largest deal in the history of the property market to sell
commercial real estate company Equity Office Properties for 39 billion dollars. It
was so in its largest investment in Brazil, Gafisa construction - as it was in 2012,
months before the company plummet in the bag. Now his biggest bet is the
storage company Store Here, it operates in a still little relevant market in the
country. While large funds look at Brazil with suspicion, he says that this is the
right time for new investments here. EXAME - Two years ago you told EXAME
that Brazil would live difficult years ahead. Now what? Sam Zell - The fact that
Brazil is going through a difficult period. But I believe that the country's forces
will ultimately prevail. President Lula was successful because it combined social
activities with economic prudence. The current administration forgot prudence.
This is clear to the nationalization policies, such as in the oil sector. Instead of
using known technologies across the world, preferred to construct the own
country. This is unwise from any perspective. With the choice of the new
finance minister, no chance of a return to rationality. EXAME - So you're
optimistic about the next few years in Brazil? Sam Zell - Yes. You have scale.
There are 200 million people. This creates opportunities. This is a society very
"aspirational". Our original motivation to invest here was the belief that the
movement of the lower classes to the middle class and the upper class would
be very positive for Brazil. Of course it's much more difficult now than five years
ago. On the other hand, five years ago all my competitors were here. Today, as
far as I know, I'm the only one. In our history, there is a direct correlation
between success and degree of competition. With intense competition, it is very
difficult to do good business. EXAME - The question that everyone is here: the
price of real estate will fall? Sam Zell - If I had to bet, bet against falling prices.
In the residential side there may have been an oversupply in some regions. But
there was no excess supply in offices, retail, in sheds. It is different from what
happened in the United States, where everything stopped. Banks stopped. In
Brazil, banks are well. And do not think you have the toxic financial instruments
that contributed to the problems in the United States. EXAME - You're known
for great investments. But today, in Brazil, has small investments in Paraná
construction Thá and storage company Save Here. Plans big hits? Sam Zell -
We are ready to make big or small investments in accordance with the size of
the opportunities. Do not worry about the size of the investment, but with the
growth potential and the possibility to make a difference in a particular market.

2. The Store Here meets rising middle class. She wants to build things. And the
apartments are smaller and smaller. Here we are already market leaders, but
we have tremendous opportunities to grow. I see no limits. In Thá Group, we
are much more dependent on the residential market health. EXAME - Brazil
lagged behind in comparison with its neighbors? Sam Zell - Colombia and Peru
are the stars of the continent now. When we came to Brazil for the first time, we
would never have invested in Colombia. Now we have large investments there.
If I had to pick a favourite country in the world today would be Colombia. Peru is
on our radar. Probably the elephant in the room is Argentina, which is a total
mess. They will have an opportunity with a change of government next year.
Argentina has a long history of fiscal irresponsibility, which makes investing
their very challenging. EXAME - You care about the political environment in the
region? Sam Zell - Of course. Look at the real, which was 1.75 to 2.60. It is a
very large devaluation. And it will obviously cause difficulties for the country, will
create inflation. Political decisions directly impact our investments. EXAME -
Politics is the most important factor when you decide whether to invest in
certain markets? Sam Zell - Starts with the policy. Then comes the economy.
But if the policy is not reasonable, the economy does not matter. We learn this
in countries such as Venezuela. Another important issue is demographics. In
Japan and most of Europe, there are fewer people in December than it had in
January. As an investor, what I do is to try to determine where the demand is
and see how I will be able meet this demand. If the population is shrinking, the
demand will be also. So I prefer to invest in Brazil or India, where the population
and the demand will grow. EXAME - How do you study your potential market?
Sam Zell - I read all the time. And also travel a lot. Some time ago, I started
reading about Mongolia. Li that Gucci was opening a store in Ulan Bator, the
capital. I thought that was crazy. I flew and went there. There was nothing there
for me to do, but it's all part of the learning process. You can not be a
successful entrepreneur if not a keen observer. This is crucial to see things
simply. Today, buildings account for about 30% of my investments. The other
70% are distributed in several areas. But that does not bring complexity. We do
not invest in high technology, for example, because they do not know. But we
invested a lot in areas such as energy and logistics, we can make a difference.
EXAME - How to differentiate a good chance of a deal with excessive risk? Sam
Zell - My analysis begins not with how much I earn, but how much can I lose in
business. I dedicate 80% of my attention to it. In the 90s, for example, closed a
huge purchase in California. Our analysis showed that if everything went wrong,
we would lose $ 50 million. And indeed go through fires, earthquakes, and
these things that happen there. We lost just 50 million. For me, it is a success
story.
Sam Zell