1. MONTHLY CHART BOOK
OCTOBER 2016
Sailesh Radha, Chief Investment Officer
Email: sradha@borealisga.com;
803-319-6628
www.borealisga.com
2. 2
Country Allocation Report— Footnotes
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
The BGA Short-term Country Score is based on factor signals developed using a proprietary BGA
Global Country Allocation Framework (BGA G-CAF™) for projecting a country’s one- to six-
month return forecast. The score is scaled above and below zero. The countries with positive
scores have an allocation in the BGA model portfolio. The positive score followed by an upward
arrow reflects improvement, while positive score followed by a downward arrow shows a decline in
the return forecast. The countries with negative scores have no allocation in the portfolio. The
short term is defined as one to six months.
The Weighting is our proprietary portfolio weighting for this country, for the current month, rela-
tive to its weight in the benchmark. The potential values for this measure are Over-/Under-/
Market-/Zero- Weight. This weighting reflects the BGA short-term country score. The benchmark
is MSCI All Country World Index Ex USA.
Calendar Year Forecast Percentile Rank is the relative rank of a country in percentile terms based
on its calendar year return forecast expressed in real terms. The forecast is obtained by netting its
compounded cumulative market returns for the trailing five (full calendar) years from its com-
pounded cumulative returns over a six-year (full calendar) period based on its medium-term yield
forecast (CY-M™) from five years ago. For example, if the medium-term country yield forecast (CY
-M™) as of end of calendar year 2010 for the period 2011-2016 was 8%, which is an average annu-
al real return estimate and represents approximately 48% cumulatively over six years; is com-
pared to the actual 2011–2015 cumulative real return of 20%, the resulting calendar year estimate
would be approximately 28% (48% less 20%). The higher the rank the better.
The Medium-term Performance Quintile reflects the average annual real return forecast of a coun-
try for successive six years as it ranks relative to all countries in the benchmark. The average an-
nual real return forecast of the country for the successive six years is expressed by CY-M™ derived
from the proprietary modified CAPE model.
The Medium-term Country Yield Forecast (CY-M™)is the average annual real return expectations
of a country over successive six years based on our proprietary modified CAPE model, the Country
Yield Forecasting Mechanism (CY-FOREM™). The measure should not be used as a specific fore-
cast measure, but only as a comparative forecast measure. For example, we should be more opti-
mistic about the returns prospects of a country, over the next six years ,with a CY-M™ measure of
13% compared to a country with a measure of 9%. Correspondingly, a country with a negative CY-
M™ measure, we should be highly pessimistic about its return prospects. In other words, higher
the measure, the more optimistic, we should be of the country’s prospects and the lesser the meas-
ure, the more pessimistic of the country’s prospects.
Quantitative Factor Strength Charts:
BGA uses a proprietary multi-factor model, the BGA Global Country Allocation Model (BGA G-
CAM™) to forecast country prospects for successive one- to six- month horizon. The strength
charts reflect both the level and relative impact of the various factors in the model to determine
the country’s short-term score. The factors are scaled above and below zero, meaning factors above
zero are contributing positively, while those below zero have a negative impact on the country
score. The colors within the stacked bar chart represent the attribution of the factors in the model
estimating the country’s short-term return forecast, and they are as follows:
Value Factors Volatility Factors
Currency Factors Dividend Factors
Momentum Factor
Additional notes: BGA has for the time being excluded the following countries that exist in the benchmark from this chart
book - Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Qatar, and UAE. Czech Republic and Hungary have been excluded because of lack
of appropriate single-country ETFs in the market, UAE and Qatar for lack of sufficient data history, and Finland is under
review for inclusion in our model next month.
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
1.2
Underweight
(zero last
month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
40%
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
6%
3. 3
Country Allocation Report—Australia
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.19
Underweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
44%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
10.8% (61%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
4.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
4. 4
Country Allocation Report—Austria
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.04
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
23%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
5.0% (38%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-1.0%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
5. 5
Country Allocation Report—Belgium
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.43
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
0%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
5.4% (43%)
Medium-Term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-Term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-16.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
6. 6
Country Allocation Report—Brazil
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-1.52
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
51%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
63.2% (100%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
25.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
7. 7
Country Allocation Report—Canada
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
1.24
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
64%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
21.3% (76%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
9.2%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
8. 8
Country Allocation Report—Chile
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.34
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
92%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
14.1% (69%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
15.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
9. 9
Country Allocation Report—China
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.73
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
69%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
8.8% (58%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
13.6%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
10. 10
Country Allocation Report—Colombia
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.29
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
100%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
29.5% (89%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
25.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
11. 11
Country Allocation Report—Denmark
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.21
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
5%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-7.2% (7%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-4.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
12. 12
Country Allocation Report—Egypt
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.26
Overweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
82%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
15.6%(74%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
14.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
13. 13
Country Allocation Report—France
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.30
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
26%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
2.9% (33%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-0.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
14. 14
Country Allocation Report—Germany
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.16
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
10%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
2.0% (25%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
1.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
15. 15
Country Allocation Report—Greece
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-3.3
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
62%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-23.7% (0%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-1.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
16. 16
Country Allocation Report—Hong Kong
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.14
Underweight
(Under last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
33%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
12.3% (66%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
3.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
17. 17
Country Allocation Report—India
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.17
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
38%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
7.1% (48%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
8.2%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
18. 18
Country Allocation Report—Indonesia
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.45
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
90%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
27.3% (84%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
21.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
19. 19
Country Allocation Report—Ireland
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.37
Zeroweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
3%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-6.9% (10%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-30.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
20. 20
Country Allocation Report—Israel
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.17
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
13%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-14.9% (5%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
12.0%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
21. 21
Country Allocation Report—Italy
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-1.35
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
15%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-18.3% (2%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-8.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
22. 22
Country Allocation Report—Japan
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.34
Underweight
(Under last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
28%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
2.9% (30%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
7.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
23. 23
Country Allocation Report—Korea
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.38
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
85%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
15.3% (71%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
9.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
24. 24
Country Allocation Report—Malaysia
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.45
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
74%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
4.9% (35%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
11.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
25. 25
Country Allocation Report—Mexico
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.04
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
79%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-1.25% (17%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
5.6%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
26. 26
Country Allocation Report—Netherlands
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.47
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
8%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
7.5% (51%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-10.6%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
27. 27
Country Allocation Report—New Zealand
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.71
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
41%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
33.9% (94%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-3.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
28. 28
Country Allocation Report—Norway
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.20
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
56%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
11.7% (64%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
8.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
29. 29
Country Allocation Report—Peru
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.51
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
95%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
51.8% (97%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
32.3%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
30. 30
Country Allocation Report—Philippines
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.15
Zeroweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
77%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
7.6% (53%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
5.1%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
31. 31
Country Allocation Report—Poland
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.57
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
67%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-2.7% (15%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
8.3%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
32. 32
Country Allocation Report—Portugal
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.23
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
21%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
7.8% (56%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
5th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-2.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
33. 33
Country Allocation Report—Russia
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.27
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
59%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
31.3% (92%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
11.0%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
34. 34
Country Allocation Report—Singapore
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.75
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
54%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
5.3% (41%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
9.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
35. 35
Country Allocation Report—South Africa
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.06
Underweight
(Under last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
46%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
23.3% (82%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
8.4%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
36. 36
Country Allocation Report—Spain
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-1.26
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
72%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-2.7% (12%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
0.7%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
37. 37
Country Allocation Report—Sweden
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.37
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
31%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
2.7% (28%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
3rd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
6.0%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
38. 38
Country Allocation Report—Switzerland
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.66
Overweight
(Over last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
18%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
-0.2% (20%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
-0.2%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
39. 39
Country Allocation Report—Taiwan
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.21
Underweight
(Under last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
36%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
22.2% (79%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
2.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
40. 40
Country Allocation Report—Thailand
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
.14
Overweight
(Market last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
97%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
29.3% (87%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
1st
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
18.3%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
41. 41
Country Allocation Report—Turkey
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
-.58
Zeroweight
(Zero last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
87%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
6.5% (46%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
2nd
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
12.0%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
42. 42
Country Allocation Report—United Kingdom
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
BGA Short-
term Country
Score
1.14
Underweight
(Under last month)
Calendar Year
Forecast
Percentile
Rank
49%
Actual Return and
Percentile as of
Sept. 30
0.9% (23%)
Medium-term
Performance
Quintile
4th
Medium-term
Country Yield
Forecast
(CY-MTM)
2.8%
BGA Quantitative Factor Strength:
Look for strength in the number of factors and their sizes as they rise above the
zero score line. In addition, a rising score line (in red), as it moves above the zero
level is useful for short-term forecasts. The rankings to the left (blue side panel)
show BGA’s short-term scoring as well as weighting relative to benchmark.
BGA Medium-term Forecast (next update February, 2017):
Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising line with projected real returns above
0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation line both in time-frame and
degree from historic lows. The calendar year forecast percentile rank is based on
the inferred CY-M™ for the current calendar year (see footnotes). The Medium-
term measures in the left panel reflect the real return forecast for the coming six-
year period.
43. 43
Tranche Forecast Report
As of February, 2016
October 17, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
This chart plots the average CY-M™ measure of the countries in each tranche
across time. Look for a positive stable or a slowly rising lines with projected real
returns above 0% or a chart with a significant rising valuation lines both in time-
frame and degree from historic lows.
The countries in the benchmark are carved into three tranches—Upper Tranche,
Middle Tranche, and Lower Tranche.
The BGA Upper Tranche is made of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and UK;
The Middle Tranche is composed of Brazil, China, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia,
South Africa, and Taiwan; and
The Lower Tranche is composed of Austria, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Czech Re-
public, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Ma-
laysia, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Thailand,
Turkey, and UAE.
Next update February 2017.
44. 44
BGA Model Country Allocation Weights
October, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
October 17, 2016
Country ETF Tranche
Short-
term
Score Allocation
Canada EWC Upper 1.24 10.9%
UK EWU Upper 1.14 10.3%
Switzerland EWL Upper 0.66 6.8%
Netherlands EWN Upper 0.47 5.0%
Japan EWJ Upper 0.34 3.6%
Australia EWA Upper 0.19 2.0%
Hong Kong EWH Upper 0.14 1.4%
Germany EWG Upper -0.16 0.0%
France EWQ Upper -0.30 0.0%
Sweden EWD Upper -0.37 0.0%
Singapore EWS Upper -0.75 0.0%
Spain EWP Upper -1.26 0.0%
Italy EWI Upper -1.35 0.0%
China FXI Middle 0.73 9.2%
Korea EWY Middle 0.38 4.8%
Russia RSX Middle 0.27 3.3%
Taiwan EWT Middle 0.21 2.4%
South Africa EZA Middle 0.06 0.3%
Mexico EWW Middle 0.04 0.0%
India INDA Middle -0.17 0.0%
Brazil EWZ Middle -1.52 0.0%
New Zealand ENZL Lower 0.71 7.0%
Peru EPU Lower 0.51 4.9%
Indonesia EIDO Lower 0.45 4.3%
Malaysia EWM Lower 0.45 4.3%
Belgium EWK Lower 0.43 4.1%
Ireland EIRL Lower 0.37 3.4%
Chile ECH Lower 0.34 2.9%
Colombia GXG Lower 0.29 2.3%
Egypt EGPT Lower 0.26 2.0%
Portugal PGAL Lower 0.23 1.5%
Denmark EDEN Lower 0.21 1.4%
Israel EIS Lower 0.17 0.9%
Philippines EPHE Lower 0.15 0.6%
Thailand THD Lower 0.14 0.5%
Austria EWO Lower -0.04 0.0%
Norway NORW Lower -0.20 0.0%
Poland EPOL Lower -0.57 0.0%
Turkey TUR Lower -0.58 0.0%
Greece GREK Lower -3.31 0.0%
45. 45
BGA Model Country Allocation Weights
October, 2016
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
October 17, 2016
Country ETF Tranche
Short-
term
Score Allocation
Canada EWC Upper 1.24 10.9%
UK EWU Upper 1.14 10.3%
China FXI Middle 0.73 9.2%
New Zealand ENZL Lower 0.71 7.0%
Switzerland EWL Upper 0.66 6.8%
Netherlands EWN Upper 0.47 5.0%
Peru EPU Lower 0.51 4.9%
Korea EWY Middle 0.38 4.8%
Indonesia EIDO Lower 0.45 4.3%
Malaysia EWM Lower 0.45 4.3%
Belgium EWK Lower 0.43 4.1%
Japan EWJ Upper 0.34 3.6%
Ireland EIRL Lower 0.37 3.4%
Russia RSX Middle 0.27 3.3%
Chile ECH Lower 0.34 2.9%
Taiwan EWT Middle 0.21 2.4%
Colombia GXG Lower 0.29 2.3%
Egypt EGPT Lower 0.26 2.0%
Australia EWA Upper 0.19 2.0%
Portugal PGAL Lower 0.23 1.5%
Hong Kong EWH Upper 0.14 1.4%
Denmark EDEN Lower 0.21 1.4%
Israel EIS Lower 0.17 0.9%
Philippines EPHE Lower 0.15 0.6%
Thailand THD Lower 0.14 0.5%
South Africa EZA Middle 0.06 0.3%
Germany EWG Upper -0.16 0.0%
France EWQ Upper -0.30 0.0%
Sweden EWD Upper -0.37 0.0%
Singapore EWS Upper -0.75 0.0%
Spain EWP Upper -1.26 0.0%
Italy EWI Upper -1.35 0.0%
Mexico EWW Middle 0.04 0.0%
India INDA Middle -0.17 0.0%
Brazil EWZ Middle -1.52 0.0%
Austria EWO Lower -0.04 0.0%
Norway NORW Lower -0.20 0.0%
Poland EPOL Lower -0.57 0.0%
Turkey TUR Lower -0.58 0.0%
Greece GREK Lower -3.31 0.0%
46. 46
BGA Medium-term Country Forecasts
Period 2016-21
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
October 17, 2016
Next update February 2017.
47. 47
About the Author
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
Sailesh Radha is President, Chief Investment Officer, and co-founder of Borealis
Global Advisory (BGA). Sailesh’s development of the multi-pillar global capital allo-
cation framework (G-CAF) is unique and has a patent pending (15/047680). He also
developed the novel country yield forecasting mechanism (CY-FOREM) to forecast
medium-term equity yields for countries and the Double “Z” methodology to rank,
select, and allocate countries for international equity investments. Prior to co-
founding BGA, he founded the investment research firm IMRA LLC and worked
with Yardeni Research, Inc. as a global macroeconomic strategist to develop their
Leading Economic Index (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index (CEI); at CCM In-
vestment Advisers as an international portfolio manager/chief economist; at the
World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva, Switzerland as a research economist;
and at the Strategic Finance Group (SFG) of ICICI Bank at Mumbai, India as a
quantitative analyst. He received his master’s degree with a focus in global macroe-
conomics & international development from the Fletcher School of Law & Diploma-
cy, Tufts University, and his MBA in Finance from the Darla Moore School of Busi-
ness, University of South Carolina. His undergraduate degree is in Electrical & Elec-
tronics Engineering from National Institute of Technology (NIT), Warangal, India.
BGA provides global equity recommendations for financial advisors, money manag-
ers, and institutions. Visit him at borealisga.com, and contact him at 803-319-6628
or sradha@borealisga.com.
48. 48
Disclosures
www.Borealisga.com | 13 Richmond Lane | Columbia, SC 29223 | 803-319-6628
The information contained herein is based on data gathered from sources we believe to be reliable. It is not guar-
anteed against errors and or omissions, and is not intended as the primary basis for investment decisions. Addi-
tionally, it should not be construed as advice meeting the particular individual investment needs or any investor.
All references made to investment or portfolio performance are based on historical data. One should not assume
that this performance will continue in the future. BGA is registered in the state of South Carolina. This publica-
tion is not intended to be a solicitation for clients in any other state. BGA welcomes residents (institutions and
individuals) of other states to contact BGA directly concerning their individual state’s compliance requirements.
BGA services will only be rendered after compliance regulations are satisfied and prospective clients have re-
ceived Borealis Global Advisory brochure (ADV Form Part 2).