1. To Vote, or Not to Vote?
Experienced and Anticipatory Affect Matters
Michael C.H. Chan1, Lauren C. Howe1, Eunice G. Buhler2, James J. Gross1
1Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States 2Northwestern University School of Law, Chicago, IL, United States
Introduction
Presidential elections in the US are emotionally charged
events (Scheibe, Mata, & Carstensen, 2011). But how affect
influences political engagement has yet to be explored.
Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2008
time series study, we examined how present and future
affective orientations motivate voting behavior.
Hypotheses
Results
Voting likelihood will be predicted by:
Hypothesis 1a: Respondents’ feelings toward candidates
(feeling thermometer).
Hypothesis 1b: Specific emotions toward candidates (pride,
hope, anger, and fear).
Hypothesis 2: Affective forecasting about election outcomes
(predicted happiness if candidate wins).
Study 1a:
- The more positively Democrats (N = 977) felt toward Obama
pre-election, the more likely they were to vote in the 2008
election, p < .001*. Democrats’ feelings toward McCain did not
predict voting behavior, p = .37.
- The more positively Republicans (N = 432) felt toward
McCain pre-election, the more likely they were to vote in the
2008 election, p < .001. Republicans who felt more negatively
about Obama were also more likely to vote, p = .003.
Results (Cont’d)
Study 1b:
Increased pride towards the affiliated party candidate predicted voting in
the 2008 election (Dem: p = .01; Rep: p = .002). Hope, anger, and fear towards
the other candidate did not predict voting.
Study 2:
The happier Democrats thought they would feel if Obama won, p < .001*
and the happier Republicans thought they would feel if McCain won, p < .
001, the more likely they were to vote.
*Control for education levels of voters, voting frequency of individuals,
and whether individuals had voted in 2004 or not.
The sadder Democrats thought they would feel if McCain won, p < .001*
and the sadder Republicans thought they would feel if Obama won, p = .
001, the more likely they were to vote.
Summary
- Affect, experienced and anticipatory,
motivates American voters from both
parties to vote.
- Positive emotions, such as pride towards
one’s candidate, may play a special role in
political engagement.
References
Scheibe, S., Mata, R., & Carstensen, L. (2011). Age differences in affective
forecasting and experienced emotion surrounding the 2008 U.S.
presidential election. Cognition & emotion, 25(6), 1029–1044.
The American National Election Studies (ANES;
www.electionstudies.org). The ANES 2008 Time Series Study
[dataset]. Stanford University and the University of Michigan
[producers].
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Jon Krosnick and the Stanford
Psychophysiology Lab for their support and advice on the
study.