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Bern	
  16th	
  June	
  2015	
  –	
  2nd	
  dialogue	
  between	
  the	
  Swiss	
  private	
  sector	
  and	
  the	
  Swiss	
  Federal	
  	
  
Administra@on	
  on	
  carbon	
  markets	
  
Juerg	
  Fuessler	
  (INFRAS)	
  and	
  Axel	
  Michaelowa	
  (Perspec@ves)	
  
	
  
Market	
  Mechanisms:	
  Incen@ves	
  and	
  
Integra@on	
  in	
  the	
  Post-­‐2020	
  World	
  	
  
Source:	
  World	
  
Bank,	
  Networked	
  
Carbon	
  Market	
  
(NCM)	
  Ini@a@ve	
  
INFRAS	
  
Agenda	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
  
1. Incen@vizing	
  mi@ga@on	
  ac@on	
  pre	
  2020	
  
2. Accoun@ng	
  –	
  Important	
  essen@als	
  for	
  deal	
  in	
  Paris	
  
3. Transi@ons	
  of	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  –	
  poten@al	
  storylines	
  
4. How	
  to	
  use	
  elements	
  from	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  to	
  improve	
  climate	
  
finance?	
  	
  
5. Preliminary	
  findings	
  for	
  Switzerland	
  
2	
  
 
	
  
Market	
  mechanisms	
  
	
  
1.	
  Incen@vizing	
  mi@ga@on	
  ac@on	
  pre	
  2020	
  
	
  
INFRAS	
  
Incen.vizing	
  mi.ga.on	
  ac.on	
  pre	
  2020:	
  
Current	
  categories	
  of	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   4	
  
Kyoto	
  mechanisms,	
  mostly	
  project-­‐based	
  (CDM	
  and	
  JI)	
  
§  Successful	
  but	
  paralyzed	
  by	
  price	
  crash	
  
§  Efficiency	
  of	
  CDM	
  hampered	
  by	
  addi@onality	
  issues	
  
	
  
Other	
  (domes@c	
  and	
  interna@onal)	
  offsebng	
  programs	
  (VCS,	
  
CAR,	
  JCM,	
  CH-­‐Kompensa@onsprojekte,	
  …)	
  
	
  
Boeom-­‐up	
  upscaling	
  of	
  mechanisms	
  (REDD+,	
  NAMA	
  credi@ng)	
  
§  Niche	
  ac@vi@es	
  at	
  the	
  moment,	
  but	
  basis	
  for	
  poten@al	
  
upscaling	
  
INFRAS	
  
Incen.vizing	
  mi.ga.on	
  ac.on	
  pre	
  2020:	
  
New	
  mechanisms	
  under	
  the	
  UNFCCC	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   5	
  
§  NMM	
  and	
  FVA:	
  
§  Principles	
  agreed	
  but	
  “hostage”	
  to	
  the	
  nego@a@on	
  process	
  
since	
  2012	
  
§  Willingness	
  to	
  build	
  up	
  new	
  market	
  mechanism	
  seems	
  weak	
  
§  REDD+	
  
Key	
  ques@ons:	
  
•  How	
  do	
  climate	
  finance	
  and	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  interact?	
  
•  What	
  role	
  should	
  the	
  UNFCCC	
  play?	
  
•  How	
  can	
  environmental	
  integrity	
  and	
  transparency	
  be	
  
maintained	
  in	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  fragmented	
  mechanisms?	
  	
  
INFRAS	
  
Scenarios	
  for	
  assessment	
  of	
  market	
  
mechanisms	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   6	
  
High	
  demand	
  –	
  strong	
  governance	
  
§  INDCs	
  of	
  industrialized	
  countries	
  and	
  emerging	
  economies	
  are	
  
ambi@ous	
  and	
  envisage	
  acquisi@on	
  of	
  interna@onal	
  credits	
  
§  Buyers	
  want	
  to	
  ensure	
  high	
  level	
  of	
  integrity	
  
Low	
  demand	
  –	
  weak	
  governance	
  
§  Limited	
  share	
  of	
  INDCs	
  envisages	
  buying	
  of	
  credits	
  
§  Scramble	
  to	
  get	
  transac@ons	
  may	
  lead	
  to	
  low	
  and/or	
  
fragmented	
  standards	
  
“Clubs”	
  with	
  common	
  accoun@ng	
  rules	
  and/or	
  “filters”	
  for	
  types	
  
of	
  emission	
  credits	
  
§  Som	
  linking	
  to	
  allow	
  for	
  a	
  certain	
  fungibility	
  of	
  units	
  
	
  
 	
  
	
  
Market	
  mechanisms	
  
	
  
2.	
  Accoun@ng	
  –	
  Essen@als	
  for	
  deal	
  in	
  Paris	
  
INFRAS	
  
Accoun.ng	
  –	
  Bookkeeping	
  of	
  mi.ga.on	
  
outcomes	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   8	
  
Robust	
  rules	
  for	
  accoun@ng	
  of	
  credi@ng	
  units	
  are	
  key	
  to	
  ensure	
  the	
  
integrity	
  of	
  any	
  market	
  based	
  mechanism.	
  	
  
§  Environmental	
  integrity,	
  consistency	
  and	
  comparability	
  of	
  the	
  units	
  
§  Avoid	
  double	
  coun@ng/claiming:	
  (i)	
  accoun@ng	
  of	
  units,	
  (ii)	
  design	
  of	
  
mechanisms	
  that	
  issue	
  units,	
  and	
  (iii)	
  consistent	
  tracking	
  and	
  
repor@ng	
  on	
  units.	
  
§  Time	
  dimension	
  of	
  units:	
  validity	
  of	
  vintages	
  (carry	
  over),	
  
permanence	
  issue	
  
Minimum:	
  robust	
  accoun@ng	
  rules	
  for	
  interna@onal	
  transfer	
  of	
  units,	
  
even	
  if	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  agreement	
  on	
  an	
  interna@onally	
  recognized	
  
compliance	
  unit	
  in	
  the	
  sense	
  of	
  an	
  assigned	
  amount	
  	
  
-­‐>	
  need	
  for	
  «clubs»	
  
INFRAS	
  
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net)
INDC
not met
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net)
INDC
met
Accoun.ng	
  –	
  Double	
  coun.ng	
  with	
  MM	
  under	
  
INDCs	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
  
Intl.	
  credi,ng	
  units	
  shall	
  not	
  count	
  towards	
  domes,c	
  INDC	
  compliance.	
  	
  
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net)
Additional
mitigation
INDC
met
© INFRAS 2015
a)	
  INDC	
  without	
  interna@onal	
  credi@ng	
   b)	
  INDC	
  with	
  credi@ng	
  –	
  double	
  coun@ng	
  
c)	
  INDC	
  with	
  credi@ng	
  –	
  correct	
  accoun@ng	
  
Source:	
  INFRAS	
  2014	
  
INFRAS	
  
Accoun.ng	
  –	
  Facilita.ng	
  fungibility	
  of	
  units	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   10	
  
Comparability	
  of	
  accoun@ng	
  approaches	
  supports	
  markets	
  
§  Fungibility:	
  describes	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  exchange	
  carbon	
  credits	
  from	
  
different	
  schemes	
  and	
  make	
  them	
  eligible	
  for	
  compliance	
  in	
  another	
  
scheme	
  
§  (“Som”-­‐)	
  linking	
  of	
  carbon	
  markets	
  through	
  
§  Comparability	
  of	
  accoun@ng,	
  consistency	
  in	
  ambi@on	
  level	
  
§  Filters	
  or	
  ra@ng	
  of	
  units	
  and	
  discoun@ng	
  
§  Interna@onal	
  Carbon	
  Asset	
  Reserve	
  (ICAR)	
  –	
  Shared	
  risk	
  
mi@ga@on	
  systems	
  
§  “Clubs”	
  –	
  coali@ons	
  of	
  the	
  willing	
  
INFRAS	
  
Accoun.ng	
  –	
  carry	
  over	
  of	
  units	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   11	
  
Unlimited	
  carry	
  over	
  of	
  emissions	
  reduc.ons	
  units	
  
§  generates	
  trust	
  in	
  the	
  market	
  and	
  reduces	
  price	
  fluctua@ons	
  
§  limits	
  the	
  possibility	
  to	
  eliminate	
  supply	
  overhangs	
  generated	
  by	
  
lenient	
  rules	
  in	
  the	
  past	
  
§  is	
  not	
  aerac@ve	
  in	
  the	
  current	
  situa@on	
  
Limi.ng	
  carry	
  over	
  
§  Allows	
  a	
  “fresh	
  start”	
  (akin	
  to	
  a	
  currency	
  reform)	
  
§  Could	
  be	
  seen	
  as	
  expropria@on	
  by	
  those	
  stakeholders	
  having	
  
invested	
  heavily	
  in	
  the	
  past	
  into	
  credit	
  genera@on	
  
Compromise	
  solu.ons	
  
§  Freezing	
  certain	
  units	
  un@l	
  the	
  supply/demand	
  balance	
  has	
  shimed	
  
(price	
  triggers)	
  
§  Linking	
  carry	
  over	
  to	
  the	
  environmental	
  integrity	
  of	
  the	
  credits	
  	
  
§  Discoun@ng	
  credits	
  
§  Possibility	
  of	
  “re-­‐registra@on”	
  of	
  exis@ng	
  projects	
  under	
  new	
  rules	
  
 	
  
	
  
Market	
  mechanisms	
  
	
  
3.	
  Transi@ons	
  of	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  –	
  
poten@al	
  storylines	
  
INFRAS	
  
Transi.ons	
  –	
  towards	
  project	
  or	
  aggregated	
  
level	
  instruments?	
  (1)	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   13	
  
Project/installa.on	
  level	
  instrument	
  (e.g.	
  «old	
  CDM»)	
  
Characteris,cs:	
  
§  Exis@ng	
  methodologies,	
  ins@tu@ons,	
  know-­‐how	
  and	
  MRV	
  structures	
  
§  Rather	
  limited	
  requirements	
  for	
  host	
  country	
  governments	
  
§  Builds	
  on	
  private	
  sector	
  ini@a@ve	
  –	
  it	
  works	
  
§  Addi@onality	
  test	
  on	
  project	
  level	
  is	
  problema@c	
  with	
  some	
  project	
  
types	
  (uncertainty,	
  low	
  CER	
  impact)	
  
§  Higher	
  transac@on	
  cost	
  on	
  project	
  level	
  
§  Limited	
  scope	
  for	
  scaling	
  up	
  
	
  
INFRAS	
  
Transi.ons	
  –	
  towards	
  project	
  or	
  aggregated	
  
level	
  instruments?	
  (2)	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   14	
  
Aggregated/sector	
  level	
  instruments	
  including	
  	
  
-  Policy	
  instrument	
  based	
  credi@ng,	
  	
  
-  Sector	
  target	
  credi@ng	
  and	
  trading	
  schemes,	
  	
  
-  Upscaling	
  of	
  CDM,	
  POA	
  and	
  standardized	
  baselines	
  
Characteris,cs:	
  
§  Lower	
  Requires	
  significant	
  capaci@es	
  for	
  data,	
  methodologies,	
  MRV,	
  
GHG	
  inventory,	
  legal	
  frameworkt,	
  etc.	
  on	
  aggregated	
  level	
  
§  Stronger	
  role	
  of	
  governments	
  –	
  challenging	
  in	
  many	
  countries	
  
§  Key	
  requirement:	
  passing	
  incen@ves	
  to	
  (private	
  sector)	
  actors	
  
§  Addi@onality	
  issues	
  moves	
  to	
  level	
  of	
  credi@ng	
  baseline	
  sebng	
  –	
  
remains	
  challenging	
  (level	
  playing	
  field	
  for	
  host	
  countries	
  with	
  
different	
  (own)	
  ambi@on	
  levels)	
  
	
  
INFRAS	
  
Storylines	
  for	
  transi.on	
  of	
  market	
  
mechanisms	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   15	
  
How	
  could	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  develop	
  over	
  the	
  next	
  years?	
  
§  Storyline	
  1:	
  New	
  market	
  based	
  mechanisms	
  	
  
Governing	
  body	
  defines	
  common	
  accoun@ng	
  standards,	
  modali@es	
  and	
  
procedures,	
  overseeing	
  ins@tu@ons	
  and	
  valida@on/verifica@on	
  bodies	
  
(similar	
  to	
  Kyoto	
  mechanisms).	
  	
  
§  Storyline	
  2:	
  Scaling	
  up	
  from	
  CDM	
  or	
  recognizing	
  other	
  exis.ng	
  standards	
  	
  
The	
  CDM	
  provides	
  a	
  complete,	
  func@oning	
  and	
  opera@onal	
  interna@onally	
  
recognized	
  market	
  mechanism.	
  Plus	
  there	
  are	
  more	
  standards	
  to	
  build	
  on.	
  
§  Pragma@c	
  development	
  of	
  CDM	
  also	
  into	
  aggregated	
  level	
  mechanisms	
  
§  Solve	
  accoun@ng	
  issue	
  with	
  pledges/INDCs	
  –	
  level	
  playing	
  field	
  issue	
  
§  Storyline	
  3:	
  Anything	
  goes	
  –	
  seek	
  transparency	
  
Minimum	
  solu@on	
  in	
  absence	
  of	
  agreed	
  standards	
  under	
  the	
  UNFCCC	
  
§  Par@es	
  agree	
  agree	
  only	
  on	
  transparency	
  and	
  disclosure	
  requirements	
  
e.g.	
  through	
  publishing	
  of	
  all	
  relevant	
  documents	
  related	
  to	
  
interna@onally	
  traded	
  units	
  
INFRAS	
  
Storylines	
  –	
  Clubs	
  	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   16	
  
In	
  a	
  weak	
  demand	
  –	
  weak	
  regula,on	
  scenario	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  need	
  for	
  
«clubs»	
  of	
  likeminded	
  na@ons/jurisdic@ons	
  to	
  promote	
  interna@onal	
  
mi@ga@on	
  
§  Coali@ons	
  of	
  the	
  willing,	
  building	
  on	
  exis@ng	
  (domes@c)	
  credi@ng/	
  
trading	
  systems	
  
§  Clubs	
  allow	
  to	
  som-­‐link	
  mul@tude	
  of	
  fragmented	
  markets	
  
§  Liquidity	
  of	
  markets	
  
§  Par@cipants’	
  markets	
  may	
  be	
  similar,	
  but	
  not	
  necessarily	
  
§  Process	
  of	
  nego@a@ng	
  agreements	
  in	
  club	
  is	
  key	
  
§  Risk	
  mi@ga@on	
  instruments	
  
	
  
	
  
INFRAS	
  
Storylines	
  –	
  Clubs	
  and	
  ICAR	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   17	
  
	
  Example:	
  Landscape	
  of	
  globally	
  networked	
  carbon	
  markets	
  
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
A
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
B
Linking
Price	
  
floor/ceiling
Price	
  
fl./ceiling
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
C
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
D
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
E
Carbon	
  
Market	
  
F
Price	
  
floor/ceiling
Price	
  
floor/ceiling
Insurance
Insurance
International	
  Carbon	
  Reserve
Clearing	
  house	
  -­‐ fungibility
Price	
  
fl./ceiling
©INFRAS	
  2014
Source:	
  INFRAS	
  2015	
  Design	
  op@ons	
  for	
  an	
  interna@onal	
  Carbon	
  Asset	
  Reserve.	
  Networked	
  Carbon	
  Markets.	
  A	
  Knowledge	
  Series.	
  The	
  World	
  Bank	
  Group.	
  	
  
INFRAS	
  
Storylines	
  –	
  CDM	
  as	
  important	
  stepping	
  stone	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   18	
  
In	
  a	
  situa@on	
  of	
  uncertainty,	
  CDM	
  seems	
  to	
  be	
  the	
  only	
  readily	
  
working	
  tool	
  in	
  the	
  toolbox	
  (storyline	
  2)	
  
§  Star@ng	
  point:	
  	
  
§  CDM	
  market	
  down,	
  acceptance,	
  addi@onality,	
  issue	
  of	
  carry-­‐over	
  
§  Exis@ng	
  infrastructure,	
  ins@tu@ons,	
  skills	
  
§  Op@ons	
  for	
  CDM	
  going	
  forward	
  (M&P	
  review,	
  eligibility	
  in	
  
countries):	
  
§  „open	
  gate“	
  with	
  exis@ng	
  or	
  simplified	
  addi@onality	
  tes@ng	
  	
  
CDM	
  should	
  work	
  for	
  all	
  project	
  types/levels	
  
§  „open	
  gate	
  plus“	
  with	
  very	
  stringent	
  addi@onality	
  tes@ng	
  	
  
§  „filter	
  approach”	
  to	
  CDM	
  (criteria:	
  addi@onality)	
  	
  
CDM	
  is	
  not	
  for	
  all	
  project	
  types	
  –	
  only	
  where	
  it	
  is	
  game	
  changer.	
  
For	
  some	
  project	
  types,	
  other	
  instruments	
  than	
  offsebng	
  may	
  
work	
  beeer	
  (supported	
  domes@c	
  ac@on,	
  linking	
  ETS,	
  …)	
  
 	
  
	
  
Market	
  mechanisms	
  
	
  
4.	
  How	
  to	
  use	
  elements	
  from	
  market	
  
mechanisms	
  to	
  improve	
  climate	
  finance?	
  
(for	
  part	
  2	
  of	
  workshop)	
  	
  
INFRAS	
  
Market	
  mechanism	
  elements	
  for	
  climate	
  finance	
  I	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   20	
  
Element	
  from	
  MM	
   Role	
  in	
  climate	
  
finance	
  
Modifica@ons	
  required	
  
CDM	
  MRV	
  methodologies	
  
for	
  project-­‐level	
  and	
  
programma@c	
  level	
  ac@on	
  
Reliable	
  and	
  
comparable	
  
quan@fica@on	
  of	
  
finance	
  results	
  
-­‐  Further	
  standardiza@on	
  
-­‐  Simplifica@on	
  possible	
  
-­‐  Measure	
  progress,	
  not	
  
only	
  outcomes	
  (tCO2)	
  
-­‐  REBRANDING	
  
Independent	
  third	
  party	
  
verifica@on	
  
Transparent	
  verifica@on	
  
of	
  mi@ga@on	
  progress,	
  
outcomes	
  
-­‐  Capacity	
  building	
  
-­‐  Simplifica@on	
  
Regulatory,	
  ins@tu@onal	
  
and	
  governance	
  sebng	
  
Public	
  documenta@on	
  
of	
  criteria,	
  indicators,	
  
and	
  evalua@on	
  results;	
  
Transparency,	
  checks	
  
and	
  balances	
  in	
  rules	
  
-­‐  Adapt	
  for	
  climate	
  finance	
  
ins@tu@onal	
  process	
  (GCF,
…)	
  
-­‐  approach	
  civil	
  society	
  for	
  
consulta@ons	
  
INFRAS	
  
Market	
  mechanism	
  elements	
  for	
  climate	
  finance	
  II	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   21	
  
Element	
  from	
  MM	
   Role	
  in	
  climate	
  
finance	
  
Modifica@ons	
  
required	
  
Country-­‐specific	
  
sustainable	
  
development	
  criteria	
  
and	
  indicators	
  
Country	
  ownership	
  of	
  
evalua@on	
  of	
  local	
  co-­‐
benefits	
  
Ensuring	
  countries	
  
interest	
  in	
  aerac@ng	
  
foreign	
  funding	
  does	
  
not	
  lead	
  to	
  minimum	
  
standards	
  
Key	
  role	
  of	
  the	
  private	
  
sector	
  
Need	
  to	
  create	
  
incen@ves	
  for	
  private	
  
sector	
  similar	
  to	
  the	
  
CDM	
  
Make	
  sure	
  CF	
  can	
  
incen@vize	
  
governments,	
  but	
  also	
  
NGOs	
  and	
  private	
  
sector	
  
 	
  
	
  
Market	
  mechanisms	
  
	
  
	
  
5.	
  Preliminary	
  findings	
  
INFRAS	
  
Findings	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  
|	
  Market	
  Mechanisms	
  |	
  16	
  June	
  2015	
  |	
  J.	
  Füssler	
  und	
  A.	
  Michaelowa	
   23	
  
§  Uncertainty	
  regarding	
  demand	
  and	
  governance	
  	
  
§  Accoun@ng:	
  transparency,	
  environmental	
  integrity	
  and	
  robust	
  
accoun@ng	
  as	
  necessary	
  condi@on	
  for	
  market	
  mechanisms	
  
§  In	
  absence	
  of	
  stringent	
  interna@onal	
  rules	
  –	
  seek	
  likeminded	
  
par@es	
  to	
  form	
  “club”	
  	
  
§  Storylines	
  for	
  transi@on:	
  (i)	
  New	
  market	
  based	
  mechanisms,	
  	
  
(ii)	
  scaling	
  up	
  from	
  CDM,	
  (iii)	
  anything	
  goes	
  
§  Stepping	
  stone	
  CDM:	
  “open	
  gate”,	
  “open	
  gate	
  plus”	
  stringent	
  
addi@onality,	
  filter	
  approach	
  –	
  best	
  solu@on	
  in	
  a	
  low	
  demand	
  
scenario?	
  
§  Make	
  aggregated	
  level	
  mechanisms	
  work	
  for	
  private	
  sector	
  
§  Ambi@ous	
  mi@ga@on	
  contribu@ons	
  and	
  domes@c	
  ac@on	
  will	
  
drive	
  carbon	
  markets	
  	
  
Thank	
  you.	
  
Authors	
  team:	
  
Jürg	
  Füssler,	
  Mar.n	
  Herren	
  (INFRAS)	
  
Axel	
  Michaelowa,	
  Tyeler	
  Matsuo,	
  Maahias	
  Honegger	
  (Perspec.ves)	
  
	
  
Study	
  commissioned	
  by	
  FOEN.	
  

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Market Mechanisms: Incentives and Integration in the Post-2020 World

  • 1. Bern  16th  June  2015  –  2nd  dialogue  between  the  Swiss  private  sector  and  the  Swiss  Federal     Administra@on  on  carbon  markets   Juerg  Fuessler  (INFRAS)  and  Axel  Michaelowa  (Perspec@ves)     Market  Mechanisms:  Incen@ves  and   Integra@on  in  the  Post-­‐2020  World     Source:  World   Bank,  Networked   Carbon  Market   (NCM)  Ini@a@ve  
  • 2. INFRAS   Agenda   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   1. Incen@vizing  mi@ga@on  ac@on  pre  2020   2. Accoun@ng  –  Important  essen@als  for  deal  in  Paris   3. Transi@ons  of  market  mechanisms  –  poten@al  storylines   4. How  to  use  elements  from  market  mechanisms  to  improve  climate   finance?     5. Preliminary  findings  for  Switzerland   2  
  • 3.     Market  mechanisms     1.  Incen@vizing  mi@ga@on  ac@on  pre  2020    
  • 4. INFRAS   Incen.vizing  mi.ga.on  ac.on  pre  2020:   Current  categories  of  market  mechanisms   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   4   Kyoto  mechanisms,  mostly  project-­‐based  (CDM  and  JI)   §  Successful  but  paralyzed  by  price  crash   §  Efficiency  of  CDM  hampered  by  addi@onality  issues     Other  (domes@c  and  interna@onal)  offsebng  programs  (VCS,   CAR,  JCM,  CH-­‐Kompensa@onsprojekte,  …)     Boeom-­‐up  upscaling  of  mechanisms  (REDD+,  NAMA  credi@ng)   §  Niche  ac@vi@es  at  the  moment,  but  basis  for  poten@al   upscaling  
  • 5. INFRAS   Incen.vizing  mi.ga.on  ac.on  pre  2020:   New  mechanisms  under  the  UNFCCC   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   5   §  NMM  and  FVA:   §  Principles  agreed  but  “hostage”  to  the  nego@a@on  process   since  2012   §  Willingness  to  build  up  new  market  mechanism  seems  weak   §  REDD+   Key  ques@ons:   •  How  do  climate  finance  and  market  mechanisms  interact?   •  What  role  should  the  UNFCCC  play?   •  How  can  environmental  integrity  and  transparency  be   maintained  in  a  world  of  fragmented  mechanisms?    
  • 6. INFRAS   Scenarios  for  assessment  of  market   mechanisms   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   6   High  demand  –  strong  governance   §  INDCs  of  industrialized  countries  and  emerging  economies  are   ambi@ous  and  envisage  acquisi@on  of  interna@onal  credits   §  Buyers  want  to  ensure  high  level  of  integrity   Low  demand  –  weak  governance   §  Limited  share  of  INDCs  envisages  buying  of  credits   §  Scramble  to  get  transac@ons  may  lead  to  low  and/or   fragmented  standards   “Clubs”  with  common  accoun@ng  rules  and/or  “filters”  for  types   of  emission  credits   §  Som  linking  to  allow  for  a  certain  fungibility  of  units    
  • 7.       Market  mechanisms     2.  Accoun@ng  –  Essen@als  for  deal  in  Paris  
  • 8. INFRAS   Accoun.ng  –  Bookkeeping  of  mi.ga.on   outcomes   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   8   Robust  rules  for  accoun@ng  of  credi@ng  units  are  key  to  ensure  the   integrity  of  any  market  based  mechanism.     §  Environmental  integrity,  consistency  and  comparability  of  the  units   §  Avoid  double  coun@ng/claiming:  (i)  accoun@ng  of  units,  (ii)  design  of   mechanisms  that  issue  units,  and  (iii)  consistent  tracking  and   repor@ng  on  units.   §  Time  dimension  of  units:  validity  of  vintages  (carry  over),   permanence  issue   Minimum:  robust  accoun@ng  rules  for  interna@onal  transfer  of  units,   even  if  there  is  no  agreement  on  an  interna@onally  recognized   compliance  unit  in  the  sense  of  an  assigned  amount     -­‐>  need  for  «clubs»  
  • 9. INFRAS   0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net) INDC not met 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net) INDC met Accoun.ng  –  Double  coun.ng  with  MM  under   INDCs   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   Intl.  credi,ng  units  shall  not  count  towards  domes,c  INDC  compliance.     0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Natl. BAU Domestic mitigation Crediting INDC (Net) Additional mitigation INDC met © INFRAS 2015 a)  INDC  without  interna@onal  credi@ng   b)  INDC  with  credi@ng  –  double  coun@ng   c)  INDC  with  credi@ng  –  correct  accoun@ng   Source:  INFRAS  2014  
  • 10. INFRAS   Accoun.ng  –  Facilita.ng  fungibility  of  units   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   10   Comparability  of  accoun@ng  approaches  supports  markets   §  Fungibility:  describes  the  ability  to  exchange  carbon  credits  from   different  schemes  and  make  them  eligible  for  compliance  in  another   scheme   §  (“Som”-­‐)  linking  of  carbon  markets  through   §  Comparability  of  accoun@ng,  consistency  in  ambi@on  level   §  Filters  or  ra@ng  of  units  and  discoun@ng   §  Interna@onal  Carbon  Asset  Reserve  (ICAR)  –  Shared  risk   mi@ga@on  systems   §  “Clubs”  –  coali@ons  of  the  willing  
  • 11. INFRAS   Accoun.ng  –  carry  over  of  units   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   11   Unlimited  carry  over  of  emissions  reduc.ons  units   §  generates  trust  in  the  market  and  reduces  price  fluctua@ons   §  limits  the  possibility  to  eliminate  supply  overhangs  generated  by   lenient  rules  in  the  past   §  is  not  aerac@ve  in  the  current  situa@on   Limi.ng  carry  over   §  Allows  a  “fresh  start”  (akin  to  a  currency  reform)   §  Could  be  seen  as  expropria@on  by  those  stakeholders  having   invested  heavily  in  the  past  into  credit  genera@on   Compromise  solu.ons   §  Freezing  certain  units  un@l  the  supply/demand  balance  has  shimed   (price  triggers)   §  Linking  carry  over  to  the  environmental  integrity  of  the  credits     §  Discoun@ng  credits   §  Possibility  of  “re-­‐registra@on”  of  exis@ng  projects  under  new  rules  
  • 12.       Market  mechanisms     3.  Transi@ons  of  market  mechanisms  –   poten@al  storylines  
  • 13. INFRAS   Transi.ons  –  towards  project  or  aggregated   level  instruments?  (1)   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   13   Project/installa.on  level  instrument  (e.g.  «old  CDM»)   Characteris,cs:   §  Exis@ng  methodologies,  ins@tu@ons,  know-­‐how  and  MRV  structures   §  Rather  limited  requirements  for  host  country  governments   §  Builds  on  private  sector  ini@a@ve  –  it  works   §  Addi@onality  test  on  project  level  is  problema@c  with  some  project   types  (uncertainty,  low  CER  impact)   §  Higher  transac@on  cost  on  project  level   §  Limited  scope  for  scaling  up    
  • 14. INFRAS   Transi.ons  –  towards  project  or  aggregated   level  instruments?  (2)   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   14   Aggregated/sector  level  instruments  including     -  Policy  instrument  based  credi@ng,     -  Sector  target  credi@ng  and  trading  schemes,     -  Upscaling  of  CDM,  POA  and  standardized  baselines   Characteris,cs:   §  Lower  Requires  significant  capaci@es  for  data,  methodologies,  MRV,   GHG  inventory,  legal  frameworkt,  etc.  on  aggregated  level   §  Stronger  role  of  governments  –  challenging  in  many  countries   §  Key  requirement:  passing  incen@ves  to  (private  sector)  actors   §  Addi@onality  issues  moves  to  level  of  credi@ng  baseline  sebng  –   remains  challenging  (level  playing  field  for  host  countries  with   different  (own)  ambi@on  levels)    
  • 15. INFRAS   Storylines  for  transi.on  of  market   mechanisms   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   15   How  could  market  mechanisms  develop  over  the  next  years?   §  Storyline  1:  New  market  based  mechanisms     Governing  body  defines  common  accoun@ng  standards,  modali@es  and   procedures,  overseeing  ins@tu@ons  and  valida@on/verifica@on  bodies   (similar  to  Kyoto  mechanisms).     §  Storyline  2:  Scaling  up  from  CDM  or  recognizing  other  exis.ng  standards     The  CDM  provides  a  complete,  func@oning  and  opera@onal  interna@onally   recognized  market  mechanism.  Plus  there  are  more  standards  to  build  on.   §  Pragma@c  development  of  CDM  also  into  aggregated  level  mechanisms   §  Solve  accoun@ng  issue  with  pledges/INDCs  –  level  playing  field  issue   §  Storyline  3:  Anything  goes  –  seek  transparency   Minimum  solu@on  in  absence  of  agreed  standards  under  the  UNFCCC   §  Par@es  agree  agree  only  on  transparency  and  disclosure  requirements   e.g.  through  publishing  of  all  relevant  documents  related  to   interna@onally  traded  units  
  • 16. INFRAS   Storylines  –  Clubs     |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   16   In  a  weak  demand  –  weak  regula,on  scenario  there  is  a  need  for   «clubs»  of  likeminded  na@ons/jurisdic@ons  to  promote  interna@onal   mi@ga@on   §  Coali@ons  of  the  willing,  building  on  exis@ng  (domes@c)  credi@ng/   trading  systems   §  Clubs  allow  to  som-­‐link  mul@tude  of  fragmented  markets   §  Liquidity  of  markets   §  Par@cipants’  markets  may  be  similar,  but  not  necessarily   §  Process  of  nego@a@ng  agreements  in  club  is  key   §  Risk  mi@ga@on  instruments      
  • 17. INFRAS   Storylines  –  Clubs  and  ICAR   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   17    Example:  Landscape  of  globally  networked  carbon  markets   Carbon   Market   A Carbon   Market   B Linking Price   floor/ceiling Price   fl./ceiling Carbon   Market   C Carbon   Market   D Carbon   Market   E Carbon   Market   F Price   floor/ceiling Price   floor/ceiling Insurance Insurance International  Carbon  Reserve Clearing  house  -­‐ fungibility Price   fl./ceiling ©INFRAS  2014 Source:  INFRAS  2015  Design  op@ons  for  an  interna@onal  Carbon  Asset  Reserve.  Networked  Carbon  Markets.  A  Knowledge  Series.  The  World  Bank  Group.    
  • 18. INFRAS   Storylines  –  CDM  as  important  stepping  stone   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   18   In  a  situa@on  of  uncertainty,  CDM  seems  to  be  the  only  readily   working  tool  in  the  toolbox  (storyline  2)   §  Star@ng  point:     §  CDM  market  down,  acceptance,  addi@onality,  issue  of  carry-­‐over   §  Exis@ng  infrastructure,  ins@tu@ons,  skills   §  Op@ons  for  CDM  going  forward  (M&P  review,  eligibility  in   countries):   §  „open  gate“  with  exis@ng  or  simplified  addi@onality  tes@ng     CDM  should  work  for  all  project  types/levels   §  „open  gate  plus“  with  very  stringent  addi@onality  tes@ng     §  „filter  approach”  to  CDM  (criteria:  addi@onality)     CDM  is  not  for  all  project  types  –  only  where  it  is  game  changer.   For  some  project  types,  other  instruments  than  offsebng  may   work  beeer  (supported  domes@c  ac@on,  linking  ETS,  …)  
  • 19.       Market  mechanisms     4.  How  to  use  elements  from  market   mechanisms  to  improve  climate  finance?   (for  part  2  of  workshop)    
  • 20. INFRAS   Market  mechanism  elements  for  climate  finance  I   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   20   Element  from  MM   Role  in  climate   finance   Modifica@ons  required   CDM  MRV  methodologies   for  project-­‐level  and   programma@c  level  ac@on   Reliable  and   comparable   quan@fica@on  of   finance  results   -­‐  Further  standardiza@on   -­‐  Simplifica@on  possible   -­‐  Measure  progress,  not   only  outcomes  (tCO2)   -­‐  REBRANDING   Independent  third  party   verifica@on   Transparent  verifica@on   of  mi@ga@on  progress,   outcomes   -­‐  Capacity  building   -­‐  Simplifica@on   Regulatory,  ins@tu@onal   and  governance  sebng   Public  documenta@on   of  criteria,  indicators,   and  evalua@on  results;   Transparency,  checks   and  balances  in  rules   -­‐  Adapt  for  climate  finance   ins@tu@onal  process  (GCF, …)   -­‐  approach  civil  society  for   consulta@ons  
  • 21. INFRAS   Market  mechanism  elements  for  climate  finance  II   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   21   Element  from  MM   Role  in  climate   finance   Modifica@ons   required   Country-­‐specific   sustainable   development  criteria   and  indicators   Country  ownership  of   evalua@on  of  local  co-­‐ benefits   Ensuring  countries   interest  in  aerac@ng   foreign  funding  does   not  lead  to  minimum   standards   Key  role  of  the  private   sector   Need  to  create   incen@ves  for  private   sector  similar  to  the   CDM   Make  sure  CF  can   incen@vize   governments,  but  also   NGOs  and  private   sector  
  • 22.       Market  mechanisms       5.  Preliminary  findings  
  • 23. INFRAS   Findings  market  mechanisms   |  Market  Mechanisms  |  16  June  2015  |  J.  Füssler  und  A.  Michaelowa   23   §  Uncertainty  regarding  demand  and  governance     §  Accoun@ng:  transparency,  environmental  integrity  and  robust   accoun@ng  as  necessary  condi@on  for  market  mechanisms   §  In  absence  of  stringent  interna@onal  rules  –  seek  likeminded   par@es  to  form  “club”     §  Storylines  for  transi@on:  (i)  New  market  based  mechanisms,     (ii)  scaling  up  from  CDM,  (iii)  anything  goes   §  Stepping  stone  CDM:  “open  gate”,  “open  gate  plus”  stringent   addi@onality,  filter  approach  –  best  solu@on  in  a  low  demand   scenario?   §  Make  aggregated  level  mechanisms  work  for  private  sector   §  Ambi@ous  mi@ga@on  contribu@ons  and  domes@c  ac@on  will   drive  carbon  markets    
  • 24. Thank  you.   Authors  team:   Jürg  Füssler,  Mar.n  Herren  (INFRAS)   Axel  Michaelowa,  Tyeler  Matsuo,  Maahias  Honegger  (Perspec.ves)     Study  commissioned  by  FOEN.