The Future of Work in Health There is no shortage of material on the potential wonders of new Technology in Health. In this webinar, David Smith of Global Futures and Foresight, and David Lye of SAMI Consulting will identify the limits of technology alone, and identify other changes other changes that will enable us to achieve the maximum health gain and professional fulfilment in the health care of the future. David A. Smith David is Chief Executive of Global Futures and Foresight, a Keynote Speaker, Strategist and Author. He challenges, informs and engages his clients and audiences on the key issues of the near future, in order to stimulate ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking to help organizations generate new visions, strategies, products and services. David’s 30 year diverse business career has made him recognisable as one of the world's leading futurists and strategic thinkers. David Lye David is a Director and Fellow of SAMI Consulting, following a 25-year career as a policy-maker, senior manager and innovator in the English health system. He has pursued that interest within SAMI, where his clients have included the General Medical Council, the Academy of Medical Sciences, NHS Providers, the National Institute for Health Research, as well as the European Commission Horizon 2020 Project. Slides from Webinar of 17 May 2017 by Unlocking Foresight in association with Atkins Global, SAMI Consulting and Global Futures & Foresight.

1. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
The Future of Work in Health
Unlocking Foresight
17 May 2017
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2. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Unlocking Foresight
• Strategic Foresight uses the disciplines
of anticipatory thinking to develop a
range of strategies and plans for the
long term view
• Unlocking the potential of Strategic
Foresight for the benefit of business,
government and society, both today
and for a better future.
• It delivers through services for people
in organisations who need to make
decisions
• Community
• The Foresight Hub
• Unlocking Foresight Events.
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http://unlockingforesight.org
info@unlockingforesight.org

3. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
• Atkins is one of the world’s most respected design, engineering
and project management consultancies. We build long-term
trusted partnerships to create a world where lives are enriched
through the implementation of our ideas.
• We are delighted to support the Unlocking Foresight webinar
series.
• Our Futures programme anticipates the outcomes of
megatrends such as climate change, urbanisation and
connectivity. It then uses this foresight to plan and design a
better future for all.
• http://www.atkinsglobal.com/en-GB/angles/all-angles
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4. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Welcome to the Webinar on
The Future Of Work In Health
David Lye - a Director and Fellow of SAMI Consulting. Following a 25-
year career as a policy-maker, senior manager and innovator in the
English health system he has pursued that interest within SAMI,
where his clients have included the General Medical Council, the
Academy of Medical Sciences, NHS Providers, the National Institute
for Health Research, as well as the European Commission Horizon
2020 Project.
David Smith - Chief Executive of Global Futures and Foresight,
a Keynote Speaker, Strategist and Author. He challenges, informs and
engages his clients and audiences on the key issues of the near
future, in order to stimulate ‘out-of-the-box’ thinking to help
organizations generate new visions, strategies, products and
services. David’s 30 year diverse business career has made him
recognisable as one of the world's leading futurists and strategic
thinkers.
4© 2017

5. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
The Future Of Work In Health
Part 1 – What’s driving change in Health?
Interval – Questions
Part 2 – 10 Challenges for Work in Health
Final Questions and Finish
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6. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
The Ageing Population
• Over 70s from 8m in
2012, to 13.5m in 2037
• Over 80s from 3m to
6m
• Global phenomenon
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7. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
The Growth of Dementia
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Source: Alzheimers Society, Dementia UK Update 2014

8. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Good News on Smoking, Less Good on Obesity
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Source: Office of National Statistics

9. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
The Cost of Obesity
• More strokes, heart
disease, diabetes
• Comorbidities –
individuals living with a
number of different
illnesses
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Source: Department of Health, Choosing Health 2004

10. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Is Illness a Lifestyle Choice?
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Source: Public Health England, Strategic Plan 2016

11. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Social Factors Drive Mental Illness
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Source: NHS Digital, Mental Health & Wellbeing in England 2014

12. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Isolation Breeds Mental Illness
• 29% of 26.4m households have
single occupants.
• To grow by 163,000 a year to
10.9m in 2031.
• 40% of all homes.
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13. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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We Want to Be Partners in Our Own Health
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Source: Department of Health, Self-Care Support 2007

14. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
People Trust Online Information
• Younger people
more likely to trust
online information
than a health
professional
• Over half the UK
population use the
web to self-
diagnose
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Source: Mintel Consumer Survey 2016

15. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Connectedness Can Improve Efficiency &
Outcomes
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Source: NHS England, Whole System Demonstrator Programme

16. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Genomics – Pharma, Gene Editing
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17. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
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Reboot: New Organs for Old?
• Stem Cell Technology
• 3-D printing of human organs is
coming
• How will it affect human
behaviour?
• How long will we live?
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18. Unlocking Foresight
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2: The Future of Work
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Not Everyone is Happy to Share Data
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19. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
UK Impacts of Climate Change
• More Illness due to
extreme weather
events
• Risk of sea-level rise
• Risks to agriculture and
food security
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Source: Health Protection Agency,
Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2012

20. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Climate Change is Driving Global Risks
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Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016

21. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Urbanisation brings Risks as well as Benefits
• Air pollution kills thousands
each year
• Population Density and housing
shortages
• Crime, noise and other stress
factors…
• … Can we be cleaner, greener
and more connected?
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22. Unlocking Foresight
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2: The Future of Work
in Health
Our Economic Future: Looking Good?
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23. Unlocking Foresight
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How Much Health Care Can We Afford?
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Source:
OECD Statistics 2017

24. Unlocking Foresight
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2: The Future of Work
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Are We Getting The Health Care We Paid For?
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Source: OECD

25. Unlocking Foresight
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Economics & Health: The Impact of Inequality
• 22 years difference in
disability-free life
expectancy between the
wealthiest and the
poorest
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Source: UCL, Strategic Review of
Health Inequalities in England post 2010

26. Unlocking Foresight
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2: The Future of Work
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Global Drivers of Instability
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Source: DCDC Global Strategic Trends 2007-2036

27. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
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The Impact of Brexit on UK Health Care
• 5% of NHS Staff in
England come from
other EU countries
• 10% of doctors in the
UK
• 4% of nurses
• Will they stay?
• What would we do
without them?
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28. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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Any Questions?
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29. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
10 Challenges for Work in Health
1. What is Health Care?
2. Meeting Different Needs
3. Partnership with Patients
4. Doing Different Jobs
5. Working in Different Places
6. Smashing Silos
7. New Ethics & Values
8. How Equal?
9. A Learning Culture
10. A Human Face
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30. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
What is Health Care?
• A Health Service, not an Illness Service
• Social Determinants of Health
• Health Professionals Engage with others
• Health Impact Assessments?
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31. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Meeting Different Needs
• Older People/people with comorbidities
• Social as well as medical needs
• More mental illness
• Tsunami of demand, unless we take SOCIAL action
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32. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Partnership with Patients
• Patients are experts too
• Patients can make life easier (or harder) for health services
• Different strokes for different folks – personalized care
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33. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Doing Different Jobs
• Technology will replace or transform many roles – radiologists,
pharmacists, GPs, nurses, porters and cleaners
• Different health needs will demand different skills – managing
comorbidity
• The dentistry paradigm….
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34. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Working in Different Places
• Service access at the swipe of a screen
• More use of primary care
• Hospitals as a last resort
• Residential Care – want to avoid it, but can we?
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35. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Smashing Silos
• Start at the top. Government 1918-style
• Fuse health, social and environment regionally and locally
• Multidisciplinary working and CPD
• The Future is Manchester?
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36. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
New Ethics and Values
• How (and when) Do We Die?
• Who Gets Access in a Rationed Service (and who gets turned away)?
• What gets rationed?
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37. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
How Equal?
• Will NHS Principles survive?
• If health becomes a commodity, what will it feel like for health
workers?
• Is there a point at which inequality becomes unethical?
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38. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
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A Learning Culture
• Learning to love technology
• Evidence-based practice – ruthlessly enforced in a cash-strapped
service
• Learning together – multi-disciplinary and multi-agency.
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39. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
A Human Face
No Matter how technology helps us – and we hope it will …
… Health is a social service …
… And society depends on people
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40. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Any Questions?
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41. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Thank You: Let’s Keep the Conversation Going
• https://samiconsulting.wordpress.com/2017/04/04/the-future-of-work-in-
health-part-3/
• david.lye@samiconsulting.co.uk
• www.samiconsulting.co.uk
• david.smith@thegff.com
• www.thegff.com
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42. Unlocking Foresight
Webinar Series
2: The Future of Work
in Health
Closing remarks
Community
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8354359/profile
Foresight Hub
http://unlocking-foresight.tizrapublisher.com/
Contact
info@unlockingforesight.org
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