1. MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL
MODELS TO FORECAST THE
RESULTS OF EURO2016 QUALIFIERS
Bence Jámbor – Dávid Szabó – Máté Jámbor
Budapest Business School -
Consultant: Dr. Tamás Kovács university docent
3. INTRODUCTION
Hungarian football: nadir (WC1986; EC: 1972)
Present and the recent past: failures
(2006: Malta 1-2; 2013: Netherlands 8-1)
Successes in the past:
1938, 1954
(Aranycsapat/The Gold team)
Puskás; WC: II.place
1964: EC: III. place
(Mészöly-Bene-Albert)
1966: WC-quarterfinal
Olympic Champions:
1952,1964,1968
4. LITERATURE
Hungarian and international scientific
articles forecast of a football match outcome
FIFA World Ranking (MAREK KAMINSKI –
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FIFA RANKINGS)
InStat (PÉTER KAKAS- JUST CAN NOT
PLAY FOOTBALL INSTEAD OF THEM ALL-SEEING SOFTWARE)
Home field advantage(HENRIK HEGEDŰS: AWAY THE
DRAW IS GOOD RESULT TOO)
5. BASIC CONCEPT OF THE
FORECASTING MODEL
Final outcome of a national match
1. Performance
form of the players
in their club teams
2. Basic
qualities of the
players
3. Other
factors
Defending(%):
- Succesful
passes
- Challenges won
- Aerial
challenges won
- Succesful
tackles
Attacking(%):
- Succesful passes
- Challenges won
- Aerial challenges
won
- Succesful keypasses
- Shots on goal
- Succesful dribblings
- Fifa
world ranking
- Last 5
comptetitive
games
- Home field
7. Balázs’s performance on the
club match before the
examined national match
Keypass% (here
it’s missing)
We used this page to examine all the
players of the 58 matches.
8. An example of the 58 examined matches
Defense skills
Attack skills
9. Create one defense- and attack value in each teams
Creating defense factors
SPSS, factor analysis, 3 factors from 5 variablesVariance-proportion
method the variables with the closest relation one factor
1.factor: save-,
tackles %
2. factor:
challenges won-,
aerial challenges
won %
3. factor: passes
%
3 factors 1 defense value
11. MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL
MODELS
Multiple linear regression
difference between current form of attacker players and current form of opponent
defender players (both team)
difference between current InStat index of attacker players and current InStat index of
opponent defender players (both team)
difference between FIFA index of attacker players and opponent defender players
number of scored goals of attacker players in their previous club game
number of assists of attacker players in their previous club game
difference between the trends of their previous five matches of the two national teams
difference between the Fifa world rank score of the the two national teams
dummy variable of home field
12. HOME FIELD
ADVANTAGE
In 2012 English Premier League decided in the last fixture
Manchester City is the champion
13. REGRESSION MODEL
#1
Model
Coefficients
t p
B Std.
Error
Own attacker– opponent
defender ,030 ,007 4,097 ,000
Own attacker– opponent
defender InStat ,005 ,003 2,028 ,045
Own attacker– opponent
defender Fifa ,092 ,032 2,836 ,005
Own FIFA World Rank–
Opponent FIFA World Rank -,001 ,000 -1,680 ,096
Own Homefield Advantage ,675 ,221 3,052 ,003
14. REGRESSION MODEL
#2
Model
Coefficients
t p
B Std.
Error
Attacker– Defender (based on Fifa
form)
,033 ,010 3,337 ,001
Own attacker– Own defender (InStat)
,011 ,002 4,653 ,000
Own homefield advantage
,850 ,227 3,754 ,000
15. THE EXPLANATORY
POWER OF THE
REGRESSION MODELS
R - multiple correlation coefficient
R2 - multiple determination coefficient
Model #1
R R Square Adjusted R
Square
,717 ,515 ,493
Model 2#
R R Square Adjusted R
Square
,678 ,459 ,440
16. TESTING THE RESULTS
OF THE MODELS
n=58 matches
Prediction of the outcomes
Model #1 56,9% (33/58)
Model #2 62,1% (36/58)
Preditction of the number of scored goals
Model #1 33,6% (39/116)
Model #2 31,0% (36/116)
17. HITS
Match Result Estimated Result
Greece– Bosnia 0-0 0-0
Bosnia – Slovakia 0-1 0-1
Ukraine– England 0-0 0-0
Greece– Slovakia 1-0 1-0
France– Spain 0-1 0-1
Portugal– Sweden 1-0 1-0
Croatia– Island 2-0 2-0
Switzerland– Slovenia 1-0 1-0
18. SOME OUTCOME
HITTED MATCHES
Match Result Estimated Result
Bosnia-Greece 3-1 1-0
Romania-Greece 1-1 0-0
Austria-Germany 1-2 0-1
Sweden-Austria 2-1 1-0
Island-Slovenia 2-4 0-1
Italy-Denmark 3-1 2-0
Denmark-Italy 2-2 0-0
19. COULD HUNGARY… QUALIFIY TO
EC2016 ?
sequence match w d l score
goals
receiv
ed
poin
ts
1. ROM 10 7 2 1 10 2 23
2. NIR 10 5 3 2 9 7 18
3. HUN 10 4 4 2 8 6 16
4. GRE 10 3 3 4 4 6 12
5. FIN 10 3 2 5 7 9 11
Already played matches
Estimated result
Qualify to EC2016
Remount-qualifier
HUN ROM GRE NIR FIN
HUN - 1-0 0-0 1-2 1-0
ROM 1-1 - 1-0 2-0 1-0
GRE 1-0 0-1 - 0-2 1-0
NIR 1-1 0-0 0-0 - 2-1
FIN 1-1 0-2 1-1 2-0 -
