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slides3grensted.ppt
1.
Joint Bank of
England / ECB Conference on ‘Payments and monetary and financial stability’ 12-13 November 2007 www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Simon Grensted Managing Director, Business Development LCH.Clearnet Panel Session: OTC derivatives clearing arrangements
2.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
2 Derivative Market Size & Growth Some clues to where new clearing products are likely to emerge However, clearing is only feasible if the multilateral risks can be managed 1 10 100 1,000 $ trillion outstanding notional 10% 1% 100% 200% CAGR % CDS Multi-Name Equity Fund & Swaps CDS Single Name Gold FX Futures & Options EQ Options FRA Interest Rate Options FX Spot & Forward IR F&O IRS Cross Currency Swaps Equity Futures & Options FX Options OTC Exchange Traded Commodity Key factors: • Size • Growth • Liquidity • Vanilla • Multilateral adoption • STP • Messaging • Price sources • Potential to backload • Ability to auction a defaulter’s portfolio
3.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
3 SwapClear notionals Notionals have grown in line with the market; we were told it would be too complex, not feasible, it is not, others will follow… Cumulative Trade Sides Cleared / Notional Outstanding (sides) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2001-01 2001-04 2001-07 2001-10 2002-01 2002-04 2002-07 2002-10 2003-01 2003-04 2003-07 2003-10 2004-01 2004-04 2004-07 2004-10 2005-01 2005-04 2005-07 2005-10 2006-01 2006-04 2006-07 2006-10 2007-01 2007-04 2007-07 2007-10 Notional (Trillion $) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Cumulative number registered trade sides $ Notional Trade Sides Total Size (October 07): $103trillion Circa $3trillion per month STP : ~89% in T+0 or T+1
4.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
4 STP is a key benefit SwapClear is an STP only system, manual intervention is for exceptions only; we got there through rigorous multilateral implementation and testing. 3546 4465 34313 2204 2391 16254 451 520 3098 238 371 1295 304 606 2056 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Trades T+0 T+1 T+2 T+3 >T+3 Bucket 07 09 Sep 07 08 Aug TOTAL YTD
5.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
5 What makes OTC clearing worth doing but difficult? Benefits • Clearing offers a highly scalable processing environment, everyone is bound to a consistent model • Multilateral netting brings improvements over bilateral netting • Collateral and guarantee arrangements save Credit Capital and Basle II regulatory capital • Strong business case for user adoption and clearing houses to build services. Its not that easy • Many OTC services are really about clearing off exchange trades (particularly energy and equities derivatives). • Pricing illiquid trades eg out of the money options • The real OTC world is divided into many shapes and sizes • Real OTC trades can be very complex. • Clearing works for the volume/vanilla trades • Now imagine a portfolio of complex trades. •Some illiquidity •Price dislocations •Concentration risks • LTCM and other defaults have moved the industry forward in learning about defaults and how to manage them • Pricing trades, then portfolios is vital to risk management. • Multilateral risk introduces new problems to solve • LCH.Clearnet has taken a conservative (services are not open to all) and industry partnership approach to default management
6.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
6 GCM GCM GCM GCM Clearing Membership Structures General Clearing Members are vital to LCH.Clearnet’s credit risk intermediation. The model is more complex when you look at the GCM structures and organisations
7.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
7 BANK TRADING BANK SUB BANK SUB RELATED BANK SUBS ACCESSING CLEARING DIRECTLY GCM & TRADER SUB BANK GCM & TRADER TRADING OWN BOOK AND OFFERING SERVICES TO SUBS GCM SUB CLIENT TRADER CLIENT TRADER CLIENT TRADER CLIENT TRADER CLIENT TRADER CLIENT TRADER GCM OFFERING GLOBAL CLEARING FACILITIES BANK SUB OFFERING GCM SERVICES TYPE A TYPE B TYPE D TYPE C Clearing Membership Structures GCMs carry the risk of their client defaulting. LCH.Clearnet has different structures across markets Futures OTC
8.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
8 IRS Notional distributions It is a highly concentrated market, 86% of the total in 38 banks with portfolios of more than $1trillion 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 NP Billions per bank Banks ranked by NP down to $1T 65% of total notional in top 10
9.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
9 What next? Standards in post trade infrastructure • Convergence with the DTCC warehouse • More work to be planned out between our working groups • Ultimately we would like to see consistent layered models where processes are consistent and services can be implemented consistently across abroad range of derivatives • First step • Deriv/SERV interface for IRS trades into SwapClear
10.
www.lchclearnet.com ©LCH.Clearnet Group Limited Slide
10 LCH.Clearnet Contacts London Porto Paris Brussels Amsterdam Simon Grensted Managing Director, Business Development + 44 (0)20 7426 7066 simon.grensted@lchclearnet.com
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