Market activity May 2012.

1. I s su e 13 , Vo lu me 1 8 / May 1 1 , 20 1 2
The Positive Housing Tone Continues The Week Ahead -> The “Keys”
Tim McLaughlin - Overweighting of Economic Data in an Action Packed Week
According to the results of Fannie Mae's April 2012 National
Housing Survey, Americans' attitudes about homeownership,
Date Economic Release Prediction Last
the economy and personal finances "continue to move
incrementally in a positive direction."
5/14 Mortgage Delinquencies - 7.58%
"This month's survey shows a continued gradual
improvement in consumer sentiment and outlook for home 5/14 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures - 4.38%
prices," says Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist
5/15 CPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
of Fannie Mae. "After flat-lining at depressed levels for over a
year, a growing share of consumers indicate that it is a good
5/15 ex Food/Energy 0.2% 0.25
time to sell, suggesting rising optimism for the housing market
and for prospective purchasers." 5/15 CPI (YoY) 2.4% 2.7%
On average, Americans expect home prices to increase 5/15 ex Food/Energy 2.3% 2.3%
1.3% over the next year, and the percentage of Americans who
say it is a good time to sell their home continued to rise to 15% 5/15 CPI NSA 229.95 229.39
in April (up from low, flat levels during 2011). In turn, confidence
in the economy's direction rose to a survey all-time high in April, 5/15 Empire Manufacturing 9.00 6.56
hitting 37%.
5/15 Advance Retail Sales 0.2% 0.8%
Another positive trend, according to Fannie Mae, is the
increased share of those who reported their income as 5/15 less Autos 0.2% 0.8%
"significantly higher" from 12 months ago, which is now at the
highest level recorded over the past year and seven percentage 5/15 less Autos and Gas 0.4% 0.7%
points higher than those who reported income as "significantly
5/15 Business Inventories 0.5% 0.6%
lower."
5/15 NAHB Housing Market Index 26 25
========================
5/16 MBA Mortgage Applications - 1.7%
WFIF Economic team suggest that early reports show that
the critical spring home buying season has gotten off to its best 5/16 Housing Starts 680K 654K
start in five years. "Sales of new single-family homes totaled
83,000 units during the first quarter, up 16 percent from a year 5/16 Housing Starts (MoM) 4.0% -5.8%
ago, while sales of existing single-family homes rose 7.2
percent, marking the best combined pace for first quarter home 5/16 Building Permits 735K 764K
sales since 2007. The rise in existing home sales has generated
a little excitement, as news is spreading that homes sold outside 5/16 Building Permits (MoM) -3.8% 4.5%
the foreclosure process are often receiving multiple bids and
selling above the asking price." 5/16 FOMC Meeting Minutes - -
5/17 Initial Jobless Claims - 367K
“The first quarter is typically the slowest quarter of the year,
with March being the only busy month. Inventories of existing
5/17 Continuing Claims - 3229K
homes have fallen to just a 6.3-months' supply, and the
inventory of unsold vacant homes has fallen by 353,000 units 5/17 BB Consumer Comfort - -40.4
over the past year. Inventories of new homes continue to
decline and are now at a paltry 144,000 units nationwide. Only 5/17 Philly Fed Survey 10.0 8.5
about one-third of those homes are actually completed. With
inventories dwindling, home prices have improved a bit." 5/17 Leading Indicators 0.2% 0.3%
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