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Market Monitor March 7, 2014


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Economic statistics for the real estate industry.

Published in: Real Estate
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Market Monitor March 7, 2014

  1. 1. I s su e 15 , Vo lu me 1 0 / Mar c h 7 , 2 0 14 All Eyes on a Critical Employment Release The Week Ahead -> The “Keys” Tim McLaughlin - Post-Employment Sentiment and Inflation Data in Focus Employers added more workers than projected in February, indicating the U.S. economy is starting to bounce back from a weather induced setback. The jobless rate unexpectedly climbed from a five year low. Date Economic Release 3/11 NFIB Small Business Opt The 175,000 gain in employment followed a revised 129,000 increase the prior month that was bigger than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. 3/11 JOLT Job Openings 3/11 The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey called for up 149,000 in February. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% as more people entered the labor force and couldn’t find work. The report indicates employers remain upbeat about the economy’s prospects after winter storms and freezing temperatures across the eastern U.S. slowed consumer spending, housing and manufacturing. “The fundamentals are good,” Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. said before the report. “Faster job growth means faster income and more discretionary spending. Ultimately, with more business spending, not only will they hire more people, they’ll hire more capital. Everything becomes selfreinforcing.” Prediction Last 93.8 94.1 - 3990 Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.5% 0.3% 3/11 Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) - 0.5% 3/12 MBA Mortgage Applications - 9.4% 3/12 Monthly Budget Statement -$218.0B - 3/13 Advance Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% -0.4% 3/13 ex Auto 0.2% 0.0% 3/13 ex Auto and Gas 0.3% -0.2% 330K 323K - 2907K Bloomberg survey estimates of 92 economists for February payrolls ranged from gains of 100,000 to 220,000. Last year, the U.S. added 194,000 jobs each month, on average. The unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 6.6% in February. The Labor Department’s survey of households showed an increase in people entering the labor force. The so called participation rate held at 63%. The figures showed 601,000 Americans weren’t at work because of weather during the survey week, the most since 2010, the agency said. Hours worked declined as well because of the inclement conditions. The average workweek for all employees dropped to 34.2 hours in February from 34.3 hours. 3/13 Continuing Claims Import Price Index (MoM) 0.7% 0.1% 3/13 Import Price Index (YoY) - -1.5% 3/13 BB Consumer Comfort - -28.5 3/13 Business Inventories 0.4% 0.5% 3/14 Additionally, revisions to prior reports added a total of 25,000 jobs to overall payrolls in the previous two months. Initial Jobless Claims 3/13 The figures showed hiring at professional and business services increased by the most in a year, while payrolls also rebounded in education and health services. Government agencies, factories and construction firms also added to headcounts last month. 3/13 PPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 82.0 81.6 3/14 3/14 3/14 3/14 ex Food/Energy PPI (YoY) ex Food/Energy U of Michigan Confidence Secondary Marketing Takeaway: Employment data mixed – good from a job creation standpoint, confusing from a “why did the unemployment rate tick up” perspective. In any case, causing short term pain this morning for interest rates, but the upside is we need positive momentum and confidence with consumers moving into the spring housing market, and this report conveys that. © Copyright 2012 Weichert Co. Morris Plains, NJ, USA. All rights reserved. Any form of reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited. Company NMLS # 2731. Mortgage Access Corp. d/b/a Weichert Financial Services, Executive Offices, 225 Littleton Road, Morris Plains, NJ 07950. 1-800-829-CASH. Licensed by the NJ Dept of Banking and Insurance. Licensed Mortgage Banker with the State Dept of Banking in NY and CT. Licensed by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking, Mortgage Lender 21042. Licensed Lender in AK, AR, DE, MD, D.C., GA, ME, MN, WI, IA, IN, LA, VT, WV, NC, ID, NE, WY, OK, TN, MI. Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission, License #MC297. Certificate of Authority to transact business in CO. To check the license status of your mortgage loan originator, visit Licensed Lender in SC. Licensed Mortgage Lender in TX. Licensed with the Financial Institutions Division in New Mexico, License # 01297. Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act. Licensed Mortgage Broker and Lender Ohio. Licensed Loan Broker and Lender Rhode Island. Licensed Oregon Mortgage Lender License #ML2528. Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, License #MB.0006377. Mississippi Licensed Mortgage Company, License #357/2008. Washington Consumer Loan License # CL-2731. Alabama Consumer Credit License #21213. Mortgage Access Corp. arranges loans with third-party providers. Equal Housing Lender.