Achieve the weave
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The document discusses predicting user churn from a local networking app. It shows that a feature of more than 21 days since a user's last interaction accurately predicts whether a user will stop using the app (churn). Additional predictive features included deactivated notifications, low response rates, and fewer user interactions. The goal is to predict churn and retention to help the app developers optimize the user experience and engagement.
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Achieve the weave
- 1. achieve the weave by Kenny Flynn
- 3. achieve the weave.us forecasting “user churn”
- 8. 0.88 AUC
- 9. feature predicts user churn > 21 days since last user interaction
- 10. > 21 days since last user interaction feature predicts user churn deactivated notifications low response rates number of interactions
- 11. > 21 days since last user interaction feature predicts user retention deactivated notifications low response rates number of interactions fewer (and better?) conversations predict user retention quality over quantity
- 12. achieve the weave by Kenny Flynn
- 13. by Kenny Flynn prediction is hard but extremely valuable science blogger experimental microbial evolution
- 14. Questions?
- 15. BONUS SLIDES
- 17. low matches > convos fewer than 2 convos fewer than 5 convos often initiates convos (>66%) rarely initiates convos (<33%) more than 21 days since last convo more than 21 days since last match more than 7 days since last match fewer than 2 matches fewer than 5 matches rarely initiates matches (<33%) only swipes left (declines user engagement) deactivates push notifications high response rate low response rate uses Weave infrequently swipes left often engineeredfeatures
- 19. optimization of window size
- 20. app development - temporal bias? source: appannie.com
- 21. location hard to network with limited users around? the Churn rate appears to be highly location specific 0" 100" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" Charlottesville, Virginia Area China Dallas/Fort Worth Area Greater Chicago Area Greater Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Greater Philadelphia Area Greece Hawaiian Islands Hong Kong Johannesburg Area, South Africa Kansas City, Missouri Area Lincoln, Nebraska Area Santa Barbara, California Area Shanghai City, China South Africa Southampton, United Kingdom United States active! churned! counts