2. Index
1. International Outlook
2. Domestic Outlook
2
3. Europe: new developments, more of the same?
1. The approval of the new aid package for Greece confirms our
1.
perception:
The European authorities’ strategy is to try and postpone
any potential collapse of the Euro Zone, until such time as
the financial system and the global economy can absorb
the costs of an event of this type in a “more orderly way;
2. And it is based on this perception that we are maintaining our
2.
basic scenario of high volatility, although without any collapse
in the Euro Zone in the short term;
3
4. Europe: new developments, more of the same?
3. However, each day it becomes clearer that even with the European
Central Bank’s more aggressive actions (which have reduced the
risk of a banking crisis) the major question from this point onward
is how to actually get the region back on to a path of economic
growth;
4. However, we remain convinced that Greek is likely to leave the
Euro Zone at some later point;
5. Our perception is that the Northern European countries will try
and draw a line of defense around Portugal and Ireland.
4
5. ECB’s Financing Operations
ECB’s offer of three year Credit growth
financing (in billion Euros) (month versus same month year before – %)
(800 banks) (523 banks)
18
530 To the government
489 To other sectors
Total
9
500 0,5
0 0,4
283 -0,2
29/02 22/12
-9
Funds borrowed Market's expectation Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Source: ECB. Produced by: MB Associados.
5
6. Central Banks – Asset growth
US$ 4.6 trillion (variation of 112%)
Total growth in the assets of the FED, ECB, BoJ and the BoE between 2008 and 2012
US$ Bilions
QE1 and
other FED
operations
Source: Central Bank. Produced by: Central Bank
6
7. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - Industry
Germany France
70 60
50,0
50 50,2 45
30 30
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Italy United Kingdom
62 70
46 47,8 50
51,2
30 30
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Source: Bloomberg/PMI Markit Survey. Produced by: MB Associados. N.B.: scores above 50 indicate growth and below this level contraction.
8. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - Services
Germany France
64 68
58
52,8
52
48 50,0
40 38
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Italy United Kingdom
61
65
48 53,8
44,1 50
35
35
Source: Bloomberg/PMI Markit Survey. Produced by: MB Associados. N.B.: scores above 50 indicate growth and below this level contraction.
9. USA: economy continues to recover
1. Most of the economic activity figures for the 1st two months
1.
continue to come as a positive surprise;
2. Positive revision of the growth figures for income, salaries and
the savings rate for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2011;
Could the FED postpone further quantitative easing?
3. In this scenario, the dollar is likely to appreciate against the
Euro until the end of the year, and could get close to a level of
1.20 – 1.25;
4.
Significant risk of a hike in petroleum and gasoline prices which
is partly offset by the renewal of the US automobile fleet
(greater energy efficiency);
9
10. USA: Revisions in the growth of income, salaries and the savings rate
Income (quarterly annualized var. - %) Salaries (quarterly annualized var. - %)
12 12 Previous
Previous Current
9 Current 9
6,6
5,5
6 6
3,2 3,2
1,5 4,0
3 3
2,6
0 0,8 0
2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11 2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11
6
Savings 5 4,6 4,5
(% of disposable
income) Previous
4 Current
3,9
3,7
3
Source: BEA. Produced by: MB Associados.
2Q/10 4Q/10 2Q/11 4Q/11
10
11. USA: Industrial Activity Index
Richmond Fed * Philadelphia Fed *
30 50
20,0
10 25
10,2
-10 0
-30 -25
-50 -50
Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
Source: Fed Richmond and Fed Philadelphia. Produced by: MB Associados. (positive values indicate growth)
*Industrial activity in the states of Pennsylvania, Delaware and part of New Jersey.
*Industrial activity in the states of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, the District of Columbia and part of West Virginia
11
13. ISM: Industry and Services
60 57,30
50 52,40
40
ISM- Non Manufacturing
ISM- Manufacturing
30
Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
Source: Institute od Supply ManagementPrepared by: MB Associados.
Note: Above 50 indicates expansion and below contraction.
13
14. USA: Domestic vehicle sales
Seasonally adjusted and annualized figures – millions of units
15,0
12,5
11,7
10,0
7,5
5,0
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Source: Bloomberg - Production: MB Associados
14
15. USA: Domestic sales of vehicles by the major automobile companies
Cumulative growth in the last 12 months - %
29,1
25,0
10,0 9,3
8,0
-5,0
-20,0
-35,0
GM Ford Chrysler
-50,0
Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12
Source: Bloomberg - Production: MB Associados
15
16. USA: Growth in consumer credit
Absolute variation in relation to the previous month
30
17,8
10
-10
-30
Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12
Source: Federal Reserve. Produced by: MB Associados.
16
17. USA: New employment insurance requests
Thousands of people
New requests Avarage*
500
460
420
380
356
351
340
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Source: Department of Labour. Production: MB Associados. * Moving 4-week average
17
18. USA: creation of new job positions (ADP)
Absolute Variation in terms of thousands of people
400
216
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Source: ADP. Produced by: MB Associados. Note ADP: Creation of new job positions in the private sector
18
19. USA: Creation of new job positions (ADP)
Large
75 3
20
0
-75 -32
-150
Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12
Small Medium
89 200 51
175 108 88
0
0
-31 -200 -46
-175
-350 -400
Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12 Feb-04 Feb-08 Feb-12
Source: ADP. Produced by: MB Associados.
20. Increase in petroleum prices: will it disrupt the US recovery?
Price of Brent and WTI type Price of gasoline at the pump
petroleum (US$ barrel) (US$/barrel)
130
124,9 4,1
120
3,79
3,8
110
106,0 3,5
100
3,2
90
2,9
80
70 2,6
09/09/11 09/12/11 09/03/12 5/3/10 5/3/11 5/3/12
Source: Bloomberg. Produced by: MB Associados.
20
21. IEA Projections suggest tight oil market
OPEC Production (mb/d)
Balance Supply and Demand 30,8
30,9
(mb/d)
30,7
2011 2012 P
Demand 89,1 89,9 nov/11 dez/11 jan/12
Supply 88,5
Idle capacity OPEC (mb/d)
Non-OPEC 52,7 53,6
Saudi Arabia 2,0
OPEC 35,8 -
Nigeria 0,4
Iraq 0,4
OPEC production required to
Kuwait 0,3
meet the demand:
Angola 0,2
Total idle
30 mb/d (*) UAE 0,2
capacity:
Qatar 0,1
Source: IEA (Feb/12 Report). (*) Excluding OPEC production 3.7 mb/d
NGLs of 6.3 mb/d. Projected demand based on estimated global Venezuela 0,1
growth of 3.3% in 2012. Iran 0,1
Produced by: MB Associados.
21
22. Non-OPEC supply in the countries outside the OECD
Non-OPEC production Greatest absolute deviations
Countries outside the OECD regarding that forecast for
(mb/d) 2011 (in mb/d)
32
Asia -0,27
Actual Production
January Forecasts
30,5 Latin America -0,14
30
29,8 Africa -0,11
FSU(**) -0,09
Middle East -0,07
27
2005 2007 2009 2011
Europe 0,01
Source: IEA (February 12 Report). Produced by: MB Associados.
22
23. Conflicts in the Middle East and Low Stocks: pressure on prices
Production of selected
Change in OECD Stocks
countries (mb/d)
(in mb/d)
Iran 3,6
Iraq 2,7
Nigeria 2,2
Egypt 0,7
Libya (*) 0,5
Total:
9.9 mb/d
Syria 0,3
(*) Production should be in excess of 1 mb/d in 2012.
Source: IEA (February 10 report). Produced by: MB Associados.
23
24. Observations about the petroleum and petroleum by-products markets: USA and Brazil
USA Brazil
Shale oil and gas exploration While in Brazil, every increase in
has allowed the USA to become demand for petroleum by-
a net exporter of petroleum by- products has to be met by
products; imports;
Petroleum and Petroleum By-
In addition to this, the country’s
products balance (in US$ billion)
energy dependence is
diminishing. In 2011, petroleum
imports came to a figure of 7,4
Jan-nov/10
about 9 mb/d; 4,2
Jan-nov/11
-1,7 -1,8
-5,8
-9,1
Petroleum Petroleum by- Total
products
Source: Cbie and UBS. Produced by: MB Associados.
24
25. Index
1. International Outlook
2. Domestic Outlook
25
26. No surprises regarding the GDP results for the 4Q11
GDP and Sub-sectors
GDP from the Demand side Growth in the 4Q11 in relation to the
Growth in relation to the preceding preceding quarter - %
quarter - %
Mineral Extraction Industry 1,8
Finantial Services 1,4
5,4
II III IV Agrobusiness 0,9
Civil Construction 0,8
Commerce 0,7
2,5 2,6
1,9 1,8
Real State Services and Rent 0,6
2,0
1,1 1,1
Information Services 0,6
0,5 0,4 0,2 Other Services 0,5
-0,1
GDP 0,3
-0,4 -0,5
-0,8 Public Administration 0,3
Prod.and Distr. of Eletricity 0,1
Household Gov. Investiment Exports Imports
Consumption Consumption Transport and Storage 0,1
Transformation Industry -2,5
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados. (*) GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation.
26
27. Change in industry’s and sub-sectors’ percentage share of GDP
% of GDP at basic prices 2000/2011
Average 2000/2001 Average 2010/2011
27,3 27,8
17,2
15,4
5,4 5,8
3,6
1,6
Industry Manufacturing Civil Construction Mineral Extractive
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados. (*) percentage share of electricity, gas and water producers and distributors remained
stable at 3.2%.
27
29. PAC: percentage of the Central Government’s expenditure and of GDP (%)
% of government expenditure % of GDP
5,0
4,0 3,9
3,0
2,0
1,0 1,1
0,0
Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
Source: STN. Prepared by: MB Associados.
29
30. GDP – % growth
2011 F 2012 F
GDP at market prices 2,7 3,5
Production
Agriculture 3,9 2,8
Industry 1,6 3,1
Mineral Extractive 3,2 2,9
Transformation 0,1 1,4
Construction 3,6 5,3
Services 2,7 3,3
Expenditure
Government Consumption 1,9 2,1
Household Consumption 4,1 5,1
Investment 4,7 7,3
Exports 4,5 6,0
Imports 9,7 13,5
Source: IBGE. Prepared by MB Associados.
30
31. Change in the vehicle market
Vehicle Production Vehicle Licensing Figures
(variation Jan-Feb/12 vis-à-vis Jan-Feb/11 - %) (variation Jan-Feb/12 vis-à-vis Jan-Feb/11 - %)
3,2
Light
Commercial
-16 Vehicles
0,5
Automobiles
-18
-0,5 -0,2
Total
-20 Total: 0 %
-47 Buses -4,5 -4,1
Road Equipment
Trucks
-50 Trucks
Motorbikes
Automobiles
Light Commercial Vehicles
Buses
Source: Anfavea and Fenabrave. Produced by: MB Associados. Note: Stocks of trucks as at Feb/12 totaled 30 thousand units, which is equal
to almost two months’ production based on the monthly average for 2011.
32. Anfavea: total stocks (factory and retail)
Inventories (in days)
Total Inventories
56
6-month moving average
49
42
36
35
36
28
21
14
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Source: Anfavea. Prepared by: MB Associados.
32
33. Anfavea: production and imports
12 month sum - in thousands
Imports
Production Imports
Production
3.400 1.000
860
3.200
720
3.000
580
2.800
440
2.600 300
Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12
Source: Anfavea. Prepared by: MB Associados.
33
34. Change in Industrial Production
Industrial Production Industrial Prod. by Usage Category
(seasonally adjusted figures – index 2002=100) (monthly variation, seasonally adjusted figures - %)
133
Jan-12
Categories of use
Dec-11
124,2
General Industry -2,1
118 Capital Goods -16,0
Intermediate Goods -2,9
Industry Consumer Goods -0,1
Annual average Durable -1,9
103 Non-durable 0,7
Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
35. Diffusion index of growth of industrial production (in %)
90%
70%
50% 46,1%
30%
10%
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Source: Bacen. Prepared by: MB Associados.
Note: calculated with the 76 sub-sectors of monthly physical industrial production of the IBGE and with the growth of the same month of the
previous year.
36. Industrial production by sub-setors (variation Jan/12 versus Jan/11 - %)
Timber 7,7
Other Transport Equipment 6,2
Perfumes, soaps & cleaning products 6,2
Foodstuffs 4,7
Machinery & equipment 4,6
Petroleum and alcohol refining 4,2
Tobacco 3,2
Other chemical products 2,1
Furniture 1,8
Publishing and printing 1,7
Non-metallic minerals 1,5
Pulp and paper 0,4
Electronic materials and communication equipment 0,0
Medical-hospital-optical equipment and others -0,4
Basic metallurgy -2,8
General Industry -3,4
Beverages -3,8
Rubber and plastic -4,1
Footwear -4,5
Textiles -5,6
Extractive industry -5,7
Pharmaceuticals -5,9
Metal products - except machinery and equipment -7,2
Sundry items -8,3
Electrical machinery, devices and materials -10,0
Apparel -19,4
Office machinery and IT equipment -24,8
Automobiles & vehicles -26,7
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
37. Lending to corporations slowed down in the margin
160
Corporations
Real loans made Individuals
140
(Base index Dec/05=100,
seasonally adjusted figures)
120
100
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Individuals: seasonally adjusted monthly variation Corporations: seasonally adjusted monthly
(%) variation (%)
External Onlending -30,0
Real Estate Finance -4,8
Hot Money -29,1
Acquisition of vehicles -4,3 Acquisition of goods -17,5
Overdraft Facility
Real Estate Finance -10,1
0,6
Discounting of Trade Bills -8,1
Acquisition of other… 0,7 Working Capital -7,1
Total
Advances on FX Contracts -6,3
1,0
Others -4,7
Personal Credit 1,6 Total -4,7
Others
Import Financing -1,2
2,7
Discounts Promissory Notes -0,4
Credit Card 6,1 Guaranteed Account -0,1
Seller 0,7
Source: Brazilian Central Bank. Produced by: MB Associados.
37
38. Total Default: individuals and corporations (%)
Individuals (%) Corporations (%)
Projection Projection
15 to 90 days
9,6 15 to 90 days 4,8
More than 90 days
More than 90 days
3,9
8,0 3,2
7,1
6,4 1,6
4,8 0,0
Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12 Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12
Source: Brazilian Central Bank. Produced by: MB Associados.
38
39. Default rate among individuals (more than 90 days overdue)
% Overdraft Personal credit
Acquisition of vehicles Acquisition of other goods
16
12
8
4
0
Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Source: Bacen. Prepared by: MB Associados.
41. Change in inflation as measured by the IPCA
Total IPCA and inflation Total IPCA and inflation cores (12-
cores (monthly variation - %) month cumulative growth - %)
Average of new cores IPCA 7,5
Core Inflation
0,55 0,56 6,8
0,520,52 0,51 6,4
0,50 0,49 6,1
0,45 5,8
5,4
4,7
4,0
Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
Source: IBGE. Produced by: MB Associados.
41
42. Lag in gasoline and diesel prices on the domestic market
Comparison of the Domestic Comparison of the Domestic and
and International prices of International Prices of Diesel Based
Gasoline Based on Export Parity on Export Parity (US$/liter)
(US$/liter)
On average the price of gasoline at On average the selling price of diesel at
domestic refineries was 11% lower than Petrobras Refineries was 21% lower than
that practiced in the Gulf of Mexico that of the fuel sold in the Gulf of
Mexico.
Source and Produced by: CBIE (Energy in the Spotlight, Feb/12).
42
43. CIDE: rates and federal tax collection
CIDE rates on the price of CIDE: monthly change in tax
gasoline and diesel (R$/liter) collection (*) (R$ million)
1.000
0,23
800
Former Current*
600
0,09 400 415,7
0,07
0,05
200
Gasoline Diesel 0
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12
Source: Cbie, Federal Revenue Service. (*) At last month’s prices, deflated by IGP-DI. Produced by: MB Associados.
43
44. Estimated impact of increases in the price of gasoline and diesel
Average prices of Gasoline and
Diesel for the consumer (R$/liter)
CIDE
3,0 R$ 2.73/liter
Gasoline Diesel
2,5 Consumer Price (R$/liter) 2,73 2,00
CIDE Tax (R$/liter) 0,09 0,05
R$ 2.0/liter
2,0
% increase in prices 11% 21%
CIDE Tax as % of cons. Prices 3,3% 2,5%
1,5
% increase if CIDE tax is removed 7,7% 18,5%
1,0 Iten Weight in IPCA composition 4,11% 0,13%
0,5 Impact on Inflation (IPCA)
0,32 0,02
(in pp)
0,0
Diesel Gasoline
Source: ANP, Cbie. Produced by and estimates by: MB Associados.
45. Focus Bulletin: market’s expectations for IPCA in 2013
Expectations of the Top 5 Market’s expectations
Institutions (annual variation - %) (relative frequency - %)
6,0
2013
5,5
5,0
5,0
4,5
09/11/11 09/12/11 09/01/12 09/02/12 09/03/12
Source: Brazilian Central Bank (Focus Bulletin, 03/05). Produced by: MB Associados.
45
46. Government will continue to try to set a floor for the FX rate (R$/dollar)
2,5 29/02/12 – IOF on
04/10/10 - IOF on fixed rate international loans
20/10/09 - IOF on fixed operations from 2.0% to (6.0%) - 3 years
and variable rate 4.0%
operations from 0% to
2.0%
28/03/11 – IOF on credit
2,2 card operations from 2.38%
to 6.38% 12/03/12 –
IOF on
06/04/11 – IOF on international
international loans loans (6.0%)
(6.0%) – 720 days - 5 years
1,9
1,6 1,70
27/07/11 – IOF
on short positions
in derivatives
18/11/2009 - IOF on ADR 18/10/10 – IOF on fixed
29/03/11 – IOF on from 0% to 1%
emission from 0% to 1.5% rate operation from 4.0%
to 6.0% international loans
(6.0%) -360 days
1,3
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
Source: IBGE. Prepared by: MB Associados.
46
