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Quarterly Investment Narrative
Conference Call
Monday, February 13, 2017
Speakers
Horacio Valeiras, CFA
Principal, HAV Capital
Investment Chair, Board of Governors
The San Diego Foundation
Matt Fettig, CFA
Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
The San Diego Foundation
Adrienne Vargas
Vice President, Chief Giving Officer
The San Diego Foundation
Agenda
1. Macroeconomic update
2. Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio
3. Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio
4. Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio
5. Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio
6. Q&A
U.S. Equities
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16
Russell 3000
Source: Russell Investments, as of 12/30/16
S&P500 EPS
Source: FactSet, as of 12/30/16
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Actual Estimate
MSCI Valuation Metrics
1.6
19.9
9.7
3.2
5.0
2.8
22.9
13.4
2.1
4.4
1.5
14.6
8.7
2.6
6.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
P/BV P/E Price/Cash
Earnings
Dividend Yield
(%)
Earnings Yield
(%)
EAFE United States Emerging Markets
Source: MSCI, as of 12/31/16
10 Year Return 90% Confidence Interval
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Return
5th to 25th 25th to 50th 50th to 75th 75th to 95th 10 Year Forecast (Geometric)
High
Volatility
Low
Volatility
Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio
Asset Allocation
$446.3 million as of December 31, 2016
Includes Principal Only
Returns
For period ending December 31, 2016
Domestic
Fixed Income,
9.9%
Global/Int'l
Fixed Income,
6.8%
Domestic
Equity, 25.5%
Global Equity,
5.8%
Alternative,
20.0%
Commodities,
4.2%
Real Estate,
7.3%
Int'l Equity,
20.5%
Cash, 0.1%
Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr
TSDF Actual 1.3% 8.5% 3.5% 7.7% 7.1% 4.3%
Policy Index 0.9% 8.1% 3.4% 7.4% 6.8% 4.3%
0%
5%
10%
Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio
Asset Allocation
$40.5 million as of December 31, 2016
Returns
Alternative
Investment,
20.10%
Fixed Income,
18.80%
Int'l Equity,
25.53%
Domestic
Equity, 26.24%
Real Estate,
4.00%
Commodities,
5.20% Cash, 0.00%
Qtr. 1 Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr
TSDF Actual 0.40% 8.90% 2.50% 6.40% 6.00% 4.00%
Policy Index 0.40% 7.40% 2.60% 6.50% 6.30% 4.40%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio
Asset Allocation
$51.3 million as of December 31, 2016
Returns
Domestic
Fixed Income,
56.20%Domestic
Equity,
15.20%
Cash, 5.00%
Int'l Equity,
14.90%
Global/Int'l
Fixed Income,
3.70%
Commodities,
5.10%
Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr
TSDF Actual 0.00% 6.20% 1.30% 3.90% 4.00% 2.80%
Policy Index -0.90% 4.60% 1.80% 3.70% 4.20% 3.30%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio
Asset Allocation
$20 million as of December 31, 2016
Returns
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16
TSDF Actual 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Q&A
To submit questions for the Q&A,
please use the “Questions” chat function
Thank You
SDFoundation.org/Investments

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2016 Q4 Investment Webinar - The San Diego Foundation

  • 1. Quarterly Investment Narrative Conference Call Monday, February 13, 2017
  • 2. Speakers Horacio Valeiras, CFA Principal, HAV Capital Investment Chair, Board of Governors The San Diego Foundation Matt Fettig, CFA Vice President, Chief Investment Officer The San Diego Foundation Adrienne Vargas Vice President, Chief Giving Officer The San Diego Foundation
  • 3. Agenda 1. Macroeconomic update 2. Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio 3. Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio 4. Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio 5. Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio 6. Q&A
  • 4. U.S. Equities 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Russell 3000 Source: Russell Investments, as of 12/30/16
  • 5. S&P500 EPS Source: FactSet, as of 12/30/16 $20 $22 $24 $26 $28 $30 $32 $34 $36 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Actual Estimate
  • 6. MSCI Valuation Metrics 1.6 19.9 9.7 3.2 5.0 2.8 22.9 13.4 2.1 4.4 1.5 14.6 8.7 2.6 6.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 P/BV P/E Price/Cash Earnings Dividend Yield (%) Earnings Yield (%) EAFE United States Emerging Markets Source: MSCI, as of 12/31/16
  • 7. 10 Year Return 90% Confidence Interval -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%Return 5th to 25th 25th to 50th 50th to 75th 75th to 95th 10 Year Forecast (Geometric) High Volatility Low Volatility
  • 8. Performance & attribution for Endowment Portfolio Asset Allocation $446.3 million as of December 31, 2016 Includes Principal Only Returns For period ending December 31, 2016 Domestic Fixed Income, 9.9% Global/Int'l Fixed Income, 6.8% Domestic Equity, 25.5% Global Equity, 5.8% Alternative, 20.0% Commodities, 4.2% Real Estate, 7.3% Int'l Equity, 20.5% Cash, 0.1% Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 1.3% 8.5% 3.5% 7.7% 7.1% 4.3% Policy Index 0.9% 8.1% 3.4% 7.4% 6.8% 4.3% 0% 5% 10%
  • 9. Performance & attribution for Long-Term Portfolio Asset Allocation $40.5 million as of December 31, 2016 Returns Alternative Investment, 20.10% Fixed Income, 18.80% Int'l Equity, 25.53% Domestic Equity, 26.24% Real Estate, 4.00% Commodities, 5.20% Cash, 0.00% Qtr. 1 Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 0.40% 8.90% 2.50% 6.40% 6.00% 4.00% Policy Index 0.40% 7.40% 2.60% 6.50% 6.30% 4.40% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
  • 10. Performance & attribution for Medium-Term Portfolio Asset Allocation $51.3 million as of December 31, 2016 Returns Domestic Fixed Income, 56.20%Domestic Equity, 15.20% Cash, 5.00% Int'l Equity, 14.90% Global/Int'l Fixed Income, 3.70% Commodities, 5.10% Qtr. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr 7-Yr 10-Yr TSDF Actual 0.00% 6.20% 1.30% 3.90% 4.00% 2.80% Policy Index -0.90% 4.60% 1.80% 3.70% 4.20% 3.30% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
  • 11. Performance & attribution for Short-Term Portfolio Asset Allocation $20 million as of December 31, 2016 Returns 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 TSDF Actual 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
  • 12. Q&A To submit questions for the Q&A, please use the “Questions” chat function