QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - Qatar for June 13 2018 التحليل الفني اليومي لب...
ASSESSMENT AND MEASUREMENT PROCESS
1. Johanes L. Sitanggang Company
Jakarta, Indonesia Global Economic and Monetary Policy Structure
Trading the Global Equilibrium
This report is Strictly Confidential and not authorized for distribution, copying, altering, modification and replication. If you are not intended recipient of the report, you shall return this
report and delete from your system.
MANAGED FLOAT: MANAGED FREE-FLOATING ERA
PRICE STABILITY BAND LEVELS TRADING PROCESS FLOW
From ECONOMISTS to 1973 1973: MANAGED UPPER CEILING
Price Stability Level
To MONETARISTS from 1973 1973: MANAGED LOWER CEILING
2. Johanes L. Sitanggang Company
Jakarta, Indonesia Global Economic and Monetary Policy Structure
Trading the Global Equilibrium
This report is Strictly Confidential and not authorized for distribution, copying, altering, modification and replication. If you are not intended recipient of the report, you shall return this
report and delete from your system.
MONETARY THEORY AND PRACTICE OF THE MANAGED-FREE FLOATING RATE REGIME OF THE GLOBAL MONETARY SYSTEM
Responding the World of Global Free Trade Era with Free-Mobility
Upper Ceiling - Currency Band Theory: Paul Robin Krugman
Equilibrium State
Disequilibrium State
E
Upper Ceiling – Currency Band Theory: Paul Robin Krugman
Disequilibrium State
Lower Ceiling - Currency Band Theory: Paul Robin Krugman
Out
Of
Band Equilibrium State
Lower Ceiling – Currency Band Theory: Paul Robin Krugman
Out
Of
Band
Central Banks’
Estimated ATWR
(Turning Point) at
Estimated Lower
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Level
Actual ATWR
(Collective Turning
Point) at Actual Lower
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Level:
Johanes L. Sitanggang
Central Banks’
Estimated ATWR
(Turning Point) at
Estimated Upper
Short-Term Price
Stability Band Level:
Become Upper
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Level
Actual ATWR
(Collective Turning
Point) at Actual
Upper Short-Term
Price Stability Band
Level: Become
Upper Medium-
Term Price Stability
Band Level: Johanes
L. Sitanggang
Equilibrium
Exchange Rate
Theory:
Williamsons
Medium-Term
Price Stability
Band: Global
Central Banks
Reflexivity Theory:
Disequilibrium to
Equilibrium
Trading – Negative
Interest Rate
Differential: George
Soros
Central Banks’
Estimated ATWR
(Turning Point) at
Estimated Lower
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Level
Actual ATWR (Collective
Turning Point) at Actual
Lower Medium-Term
Price Stability Band Level:
Johanes L. Sitanggang
Reflexivity
Theory:
Disequilibrium to
Equilibrium
Trading –
Positive Interest
Rate Differential:
George Soros
Exchange Rate
Target Zone
Theory:
Williamsons
Central Banking Market
Sterilization Theory –
International Reserve
Management
Short-Term Price
Stability Band:
Global Central
Banks
Medium-Term
Price Stability
Band: Global
Central Banks
Price Elasticity Measurement at
Turning for Entry Rate and Risk
Management: Johanes L. Sitanggang
Price Elasticity Measurement at
Turning for Entry Rate and Risk
Management: Johanes L. Sitanggang
3. Johanes L. Sitanggang Company
Jakarta, Indonesia Global Economic and Monetary Policy Structure
Trading the Global Equilibrium
This report is Strictly Confidential and not authorized for distribution, copying, altering, modification and replication. If you are not intended recipient of the report, you shall return this
report and delete from your system.
Theories in Practice
A Johanes L. Sitanggang’s Theories and Equations Development
Asset Disposal
Unwinding
Asset Off-Taking
Carrying (Carry
Trading)
Lower Short-Term Price
Stability Level (Carrying
Currency Pairs)
Price Elasticity at Turning Lower Medium-Term Price
Stability Level (Unwinding
Currency Pairs)
Price Elasticity at Turning
Assessment and
Measurement of
Market Entry
Rate Timing
Assessment and
Measurement of
Market Exit Rate
Timing
Initial Risk
Assumed to Risk
Free Trading
Management
4. Johanes L. Sitanggang Company
Jakarta, Indonesia Global Economic and Monetary Policy Structure
Trading the Global Equilibrium
This report is Strictly Confidential and not authorized for distribution, copying, altering, modification and replication. If you are not intended recipient of the report, you shall return this
report and delete from your system.
COMPREHENSIVE FLOW PROCESS OF TRADING MANAGEMENT (CARRY TRADING CURRENCY PAIRS AND UNWINDING CURRENCY PAIRS)
ASSESSMENT AND MEASUREMENT FLOW PROCES TRADING OPERATION MANAGEMENT
Initial Risk Assumed
Management
Risk-Free Trading Management
1. NZDJPY
2. AUDJPY
3. CADJPY
4. GBPJPY
5. EURJPY
6. CHFJPY
7. USDJPY
8. KRWJPY
9. HKDJPY
10. SGDJPY
11. ILSJPY
12. NOKJPY
13. SEKJPY
14. DKKJPY
15. HUFJPY
16. MXNJPY
17. ZARJPY
Assessment and
Measurement of
Long, Medium and
Short-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of
Estimated Average
Traded Weighted
Rates (Estimated
Turning Point) at the
Short or Lower
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of
“Actual” Average
Traded Weighted Rates
at Actual Lower or
Upper Short or
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of Actual
Turning Point at Actual
ATWR at the Lower of
at the Upper Medium-
Term Price Stability
Band Levels
Assessment and Measurement
on the Feasibility of the Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and Measurement
of Price Elasticity Levels During
Turning
Assessment and Measurement
of Market Entry at Price
Elasticity at Turning
Assessment and Measurement
of Initial Risk Assumed
Manageability to Risk Free at
Price Elasticity Level
Selection of
Most
Feasible 1-2
Pairs from
17 Pairs to
Trade at the
Lowest Initial
Risk
Assumed
and
Manageable
to Risk Free
From
17
Pairs
16
Pairs to Conclude for
2
Pairs
2
Pairs
Traded
for Profit
TARGET
TARGET
1. NZDCHF
2. AUDCHF
3. CADCHF
4. GBPCHF
5. EURCHF
6. USDCHF
7. KRWCHF
8. HKDCHF
9. SGDCHF
10.ILSCHF
11. NOKCHF
12. DKKCHF
13. SEKCHF
14. HUFCHF
15. MXNCHF
16. ZARCHF
Assessment and
Measurement of
Long, Medium and
Short-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of
Estimated Average
Traded Weighted
Rates (Estimated
Turning Point) at the
Short or Lower
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of
“Actual” Average
Traded Weighted Rates
at Actual Lower or
Upper Short or
Medium-Term Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and
Measurement of Actual
Turning Point at Actual
ATWR at the Lower of
at the Upper Medium-
Term Price Stability
Band Levels
Assessment and Measurement
on the Feasibility of the Price
Stability Band Levels
Assessment and Measurement
of Price Elasticity Levels During
Turning
Assessment and Measurement
of Market Entry at Price
Elasticity at Turning
Assessment and Measurement
of Initial Risk Assumed
Manageability to Risk Free at
Price Elasticity Level
Selection of
Most
Feasible 1-2
Pairs from
17 Pairs to
Trade at the
Lowest Initial
Risk
Assumed
and
Manageable
to Risk Free
Initial Risk Assumed
Management
Risk-Free Trading Management
5. Johanes L. Sitanggang Company
Jakarta, Indonesia Global Economic and Monetary Policy Structure
Trading the Global Equilibrium
This report is Strictly Confidential and not authorized for distribution, copying, altering, modification and replication. If you are not intended recipient of the report, you shall return this
report and delete from your system.
High Return Investment in Monetary Trading
Carrying – Re-carrying versus Unwinding – Re-unwinding
(Asset Off-Taking versus Asset Disposal)
Settling FX $ 5.00
Trillion Daily
( $ 1,500.00 Trillion
Annually)
Settling Debt
Securities $ 700.00
Billion Daily
( $ 182.00 Trillion
Annually)
Settling FX $ 0.70
Trillion Daily
( $ 182.00 Trillion
Annually)
Handling $ 750.00
Trillion Derivative
Assets
Matching the Trading with the Global Central Banks Management
on the Global Monetary Structure Policy
By Johanes L. Sitanggang
IMF – International Monetary Fund BIS – Bank for International Settlements OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
FED – Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta BOJ – Bank of Japan SNB – Swiss National Bank
ECB – European Central Bank BOE – Bank of England BOC – Bank of Canada
RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia RBNZ – Reserve Bank of New Zealand CEPR – Center for Economic Policy Research
NBER – National Bureau of Economic Research CLS – CLS Bank Traiana, Inc, a Group of ICAP PLC