Risks and devastation of nuclear outbreaks on climate and food
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This document discusses the risks and devastation caused by nuclear weapons. It notes that even a small regional nuclear war could reduce global temperatures by 1°C by throwing soot into the atmosphere, severely impacting global food production. Models show that a regional nuclear conflict could reduce global crop and fish calorie production by over 80% for over a decade, threatening global food security. The document also provides historical context, showing images of the destruction and human suffering caused by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
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Risks and devastation of nuclear outbreaks on climate and food
- 1. Risks and devastation caused through climatic catastrophe of nuclear outbreaks Tayyaba Hussain1,2, James N. Furze3,4 1 Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory, Quaid-i-Azam University, Pakistan. 2 Plant Immunology Laboratory, National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Pakistan. 3 Laboratory of Biotechnology and Valorization of Natural Resources, Ibn Zohr University, Morocco. 4 Control and Systems Engineering Department, University of Technology-Iraq, Iraq
- 2. Fig. 3 A mother tends her injured child, a victim of the atomic bomb blast at Hiroshima,1945 (Keystone/Getty Images) Fig. 2 Starvation, a consequences of Nuclear war Fig. 1 Small nuclear war would throw enough soot to decrease temperature upto 1oC Creator: mediaphotos (Getty Images Copyright: mediaphotos)
- 3. 6257 5550 350 290 225 165 156 90 40-50 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1458 4497 1760 1800 3750 1389 New START ceiling (1550 warheads) agreed by Russia and the United States (Feb, 2018) Russia U.S. China. France. U.K.. Pakistan India Israel North Korea Retired: warheads no longer in stockpile; remaining intact awaiting dismantlement Military Strategic: warheads assigned for potential use on military delivery vehicles; active and inactive warheads Strategic deployed: warheads on ballistic missiles and at US bomber bases. Numbers based on New START which attributes one deployed warhead per deployed heavy bomber regardless of how many warheads each bomber carries Fig. 4 Major nuclear armed states possessing nuclear warheads (Kristensen et al. 2021)
- 4. Fig. 5 Global devastation and food production consequence of extreme anomolies caused by nuclear war: a) average annual crop calorie change (%); b) marine fish calorie changes (%) after nuclear war, for the different soot injection scenarios; c) combined impact of crops and marine fish on available caloric input; d) grass leaf carbon is a combination of C3 and C4 grass and the change is calculated as annual accumulated carbon. The gray line in a) is the an average of six crop models under the 5 Tg scenario, and the light gray envelope in a) is the standard deviation of six crop models (Jägermeyr et al. 2020; Chand 2020) 5 Tg 16 Tg 27 Tg 37 Tg 47 Tg 150 Tg ref 11 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Time (years) Time (years) Time (years) Time (years) Average caloric change % Average caloric change % Average caloric change % Average caloric change % a b c d
- 5. Table 1 Projected decline in crop production in scenarios of nuclear soot following conflict (Xia et al. 2015; Jägermeyr et al. 2020)
- 6. Fig. 6 Hiroshima, September 1945
- 7. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the work of the Food and Agriculture Organization and its outreached members. We are also grateful to researchers, scientists and photographers who disseminate sensitive information at their own risk. Thanks to our families, friends and mentors who support us. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- References • Jägermeyr J, Robockd A, Elliotta J et al (2020) A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. PNAS 117(13):7071–7081. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1919049117 • Kristensen HM, Korda M, Kütt M et al (2021) Chapter 10 World nuclear forces. In: SIPRI yearbook 2021: armaments, disarmament and international security. Oxford University Press • Chand A (2020) Local nuclear war disrupts global food security. Nat Food 1(194). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-0069-y • Xia L, Robock A Mills M et al (2015) Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war. Earth’s Future 3(2):37-48. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000283
Editor's Notes
- The US National Academy of Sciences study on the medical consequences of nuclear war concludes that in the aftermath the greatest cause of fatalities would not be from physical-blast, radiation-burns nor ionizing radiation but from mass starvation. The subsequent food and health crisis is expected to cause one to four billion deaths.
- Preliminary data raises a giant red flag, threats to humanity are posed by the nuclear-arms race in southern Asia and larger, more dangerous nuclear arsenals held by other nuclear weapons states. Additional research must highlight the urgent need to rapidly negotiate a global agreement, outlawing and eliminating strategical nuclear deterrents.
- Simulation of crops global average calories decreased 7% in years 1-5 after a conflict of 5 Tg soot scenario and up to 50% under the 47 Tg scenario. In the 150 Tg soot case global average calories from crops would decrease by around 90% 3-4 years after the nuclear conflict.
- Changes would affect a catastrophe for global food markets, greatly exceeding the largest anomaly recorded by the FAO observational records from 1961.The reduced light, global cooling and likely trade restrictions after nuclear wars would have disastrous effects on food security.
- The negative impact of climate perturbations on total crop production can generally not be offset by livestock and aquatic food production, demonstrating international united motivations to both remove frightening devastation causes and upscale our bottom-up approaches of agroecological complementation. Increased intensity and frequency of climatic anomalies caused by nuclear explosions would deplete global grain reserves within a year.