THE PHILIPPINES REPORT_Words of a Biyahero

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Publication ǀ December 25, 2014
Content belongs to FIRSTREK VENTURES PTE LTD / Limited to non-commercial use and not for sale
The Philippines Report
AUTHOR
Write down, therefore, what you have seen, and what is happening, and what will happen afterwards. – Revelation 1:19
Irwin Tay is rooted in the discipline of boots-on-the-ground market research to achieve effective business development. He is
committed to immerse into any dynamic and complex cultures or environment to think, act and behave like a local. He has the
ability to simplify economic or financial complexities of any business structure into comprehensible portions. Businesses and
individuals find their success in his personal approach into any markets, industry or country.

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Foreword
“In the coming years, the world needs Philippine as much as it needs the world”
Being in the Philippines is a sensory overload, I have to take a few steps back and articulate to
myself because the country is vast and yet small when life converges into Metro Manila, it is chaotic
and yet it synchronizes, it gush daily sufferings and yet there are smiles to brighten your day. And
this is amazing for me.
In 2004, I made my maiden trip to the Philippines when I was working for General Motors as a Field Business Manager. This was just
after the 2003 Oakwood Mutiny staged by the military in Gloriaetta, Makati. During that period, Philippine naturally is not a top
destination for most corporate executives. It also stems from the generalization that Philippine is a wild west of ASEAN or rather an
unfounded fear that the country is dangerous and a foreigner may be robbed or murdered just walking along the streets of Manila.
Naturally, I discovered that this is an urban myth and further from the truth.
I can still recall landing in the Philippines and making the journey from Ninoy Aquino Airport to the Peninsula Hotel in Makati, it was
a life-changing sight. The scores of squatters along the river banks, homeless people living under the bridges and beautiful children
begging on the streets pulled a heart string in me. What happened to this nation? How could a country that was desired by Asian
nations to visit or trade during the pre-seventies became like this? And since, these questions have been tugging me.
Unfortunately, that was the only time I could visit the Philippines in a General Motors uniform and it felt like an unintended
romance that did not blossom. A skip of the heart and that was it.
Strangely life has its way with circumstances and I found myself given the opportunity to visit the Philippines again when I was
appointed Regional Commercial Manager with Nestlé Nespresso Asia. I had to manage eight markets and Philippine was one of
them. It was not a subsidiary market which means that I had to work with a local distributor. I was blessed with a great business
partner for the Nespresso brand and through them I was able to see Philippine with a different perspective. There was a rebirth of
passion for the Philippines and as work persisted in the country, I continue to discover the answers to the questions that were
previously left unaddressed.
After about 5 years working for Nestlé Nespresso, I left the corporate world to embark on a personal discovery journey. Since then,
I have invested in the property market, traded the stock markets, established companies, gave talks and travel the region without
any corporate agendas. By late 2013, the conviction to be in the Philippines was overwhelming and I eventually spent total of six
months visiting the country. Even though I have been extorted by taxi drivers, blatantly cheated by both educated and uneducated
Filipinos, I still made a choice to reside in the Philippines.
After experiencing the undesirable side of Philippine, one may ask, why do you still wish to reside in the country? It could be due
the nice people that I have met too. Or perhaps the calling of a “viajero” or “biyahero” in tagalog is to humbly accept the grace
rendered by a country to enjoy the experiences, be it good or bad. It is not for me to judge a country but the people’s conviction to
justify themselves.
Therefore, I decided to pen down my personal experiences and economic observations into a journal-like report to tell, remind,
arouse, critique, embrace, to forgive and love the Philippines.
Embarking on The Philippines Report, I discovered Jose Rizal, a Philippine national hero. He said, “Filipinos don’t realize that victory
is the child of struggle, that joy blossoms from suffering, and redemption is a product of sacrifice”. This is the core motivation
behind this unapologetic report. Filipinos from all walks of life need to take ownership of their victory by knowing what they have
and what they will be giving up if they do not unite and rise up as a nation.
This report is derived from living in different cities in Metro Manila, walking the streets, visiting slums, roaming in Parańaque, eating
a Php40 Topper meal, exploring Quezon City to basking in the surreal of Fort Bonifacio. It is sincere, factual and candidly written to
appeal to all Filipinos.
So, to the people of the Philippines, this report is my passion for you.

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The Country
An Archipelago of Jewels
In 1565, Miguel Lopez de Lagazpi, a royal official serving the Spanish king reported that “the people do not act in concert or obey
any ruling body; but each man does whatever he pleases, and takes care only of himself and of his slaves.” He was referring to the
people residing in the Archipelago of South Eastern Asia, which is known today as the Philippines.
Geography
Philippine today is a single republic nation and perhaps the most divided geographically. Even just travelling around the Metro
Manila area, the words of Lagazpi is still relevant. There are cities built within cities that seem coherent to each other but in actual
fact they are well divided by political boundaries with stark evidence of division between the rich and poor.
The country is strategically located on the western edge of the Pacific Ocean. It is the first land mass if travelling from the eastern
Pacific and the last significant land mass sailing eastward out towards the Pacific, therefore the Philippines has always been a key
location for trade and maritime controls.
The country is made up of high mountain ranges that divide the country into a western and an eastern front and the climate
alternates between rainy and dry season throughout the year. November to April, the western parts of Luzon have a dry season and
the rest of the year is rainy and the eastern part is a reversal of weather from the west. The rainy seasons are exasperated by the
effects of typhoons which had disrupted infrastructure developments and to top it off, Philippine is located on an earthquake belt
with a large number of active volcanoes.
The country is divided into three main islands group, the northern group of Luzon is the largest with an area of 141,000 km²,
followed by Midanao with 102,000 km² and the Visayas with 57,000 km². Administrative subdivision comprise of 17 regions, 80
provinces, 138 cities, 1,496 municipalities and 42,025 barangays. Barangays are village-level administrative units and the term dates
back historically to the 1500s.

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12,139
591
57 44
9

6,300
28,689
1,061

4.1 890,895

P89.6

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Under The Philippine National Framework for Physical Planning (NFPP): 2001 – 2030, NFPP has identified 12 metropolitan areas as
the country’s leading industrial, financial and technological centers that serve as main hubs for international trade. The largest
metropolitan in the country is Manila, which is the capital city of the Philippines.
To structure the Philippines is not a walk in the park as compared to island nations such as Taiwan or Singapore. This is due to the
sparsely spread islands, separated between the open seas. Additionally, the country is exposed to the effects of climate change and
the western coastline is constantly tormented by seasonal typhoons from the Pacific Ocean. The devastating effect of a typhoon
impacting Philippine can be understood from the 2013 Super Typhoon Yolanda.
The magnitude of the damage from typhoons stem mainly from the need to live along the coastline and the lack of efficient
infrastructure to counter the intensity of typhoons.
There is an active debate within the country that the recovery efforts by the government are slow against the argument that the
country should not rush into rebuilding the damages. Instead, the redevelopment effort should be measured and rebuild with
better infrastructure to withstand future natural disasters. This is one example of the political bickering that exists on a daily basis
that drags the country’s development.
Philippine is blessed with unchangeable benefits too and majority of investors often overlook the country’s other investable merits.
Within the land mass of about 300,000 km², the country is rich in Nickel, Cobalt, Gold, Silver, Copper and Salt. In 2014, Philippine is
still ranked among the top three Nickel producing country and Nickel being the primary available metals in Philippine is widely used
globally and about 65% of world’s nickel is made into stainless steel. Japan has been the primary importer and imported 27%
Nickel Ore from the Philippines in 2013. Due to the projected diminishing supply of Nickel, many countries are taking notice of
Philippine’s Nickel availability.
On November 3, 2014 the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) reported the total metallic production rose 22% to Php57.27 billion
as of end-June compared to the same period previous
year of Php46.84 billion. The MGB cited major
contributors to the metallic production growth are:
1. Dipidio Copper-Gold project in Nueva Vizcaya
operated by Oceangold Philippines, Inc.
2. Padcal Copper-Gold project in Benguet operated
by Philex Mining Corp
3. Taganito Mining Corp high pressure acid leach
plant in Surigao del Norte
And with a ban on Nickel ore export from Indonesia that
may last into late 2016, Philippine may be sitting on a
good opportunity to capitalize on the supply of Nickel to
the world.
If you can recognize Philippine benefitting from the
metals market, think also agriculture. To the non-
Filipinos, have you tasted Philippine’s mango? They are
as good as Taiwan’s mango or better, simply because
both countries are perched on volcanic land which is
naturally more fertile. The mango is the third most
important fruit products next to Banana and Pineapple in
Philippine. About 11% of world demand for mango is
supplied by the Philippines, valued at US$35.33 million
for processed mango and US$30.76 million for dried
mango in 2013. Recently, U.S. has lifted import

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restrictions on Philippine mangoes which will boost export in 2015 onwards. This is an example of a fruit product out of the
numerous agriculture produce that are not extensively exported due to production volume or lack of international certification.
Improvement in land usage and provision for certification will certainly reap immediate economic results.
With ASEAN integration just round the corner, the Philippines can benefit agriculturally to produce its own foods to achieve positive
net export, instead of importing to meet its demand. A glaring example is the importation of rice from Thailand or Vietnam.
There are many more economic situations in Philippine that defy logic, which bring us to the next point.
The country has three elite Universities that produce the finest students and some are hailed as critical thinkers, while the critical
mass is singing “Hail Mary” for the country. The tongue-in-cheek statement is to query the utility or contribution of academics in
the Philippines.
Geographically, Philippine may seem handicapped by its topography but if one research into the archipelago of jewels, there are
vast amount of other investment opportunities yet to be explored.
Political Landscape
The Philippines was named after King Philip II of Spain and was under Spanish rule for 356 years until 1898. Thereafter, the Spanish-
American war broke out and Philippine was under the American administration and eventually became an independent republic in
1946.
Even though Philippine is a constitutional republic, governed as a unitary state, it is important to note that the Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is an exception which resides in the southern parts of the Archipelago. There are on-going efforts to
end conflicts and establish economic development for this region.
A poor man’s field may produce abundant food, but injustice sweeps it away..” – Proverbs 13:23
Arith m etic d o n ot m atch u p .
It cost more for Ph ilip p in e with a
lower per -capita income than
Th ailan d to p rod u c e a b ag of ric e an d
d elivered d omestically to F ilip in os,
compared to shipping a bag of rice
from Th ailan d .

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The country has been plagued with corruption at the highest levels
for many years and inevitably stalled the growth of the economy.
Under the current administration led by President Benigno Aquino
III, he has pursued aggressive anticorruption and no poverty
campaigns which led to multiple arrests of high profile politicians.
Together with numerous government reforms and sustainable fiscal
management has attracted an increased in foreign investment into
the country since 2010.
Underlining the commitment to uphold democracy, the politics in
Philippine is still characterized by strong roles in money, media,
influence and violence. The political landscape is still dominated by influential elites, as well as powerful political families providing
constant drama for the country. To put it light-heartedly, the political scene in Philippine is akin to a soap opera with unending
episodes. Faced with persistent challenges, public institutions are still weak with inadequate accountability, impacting the quality of
governance in recent years. The political landscape has to be restructured, if left uncheck, will dilute the growing global confidence
in the economic stability of the Philippines.
The culture of taking, high level of self-interests and high handed manipulation of people are clearly embedded within the general
populous. According to established social studies, human attitudes will require at least a generation to produce sustainable ethical
change. Adding a generation of complacent Filipinos distracted by the recent comforts, to a generation of jaded parents that have
battled decades of economic hardships, it requires a high level of motivation from Filipinos to truly transform the country.
No country is perfect but investment opportunities are available in the Philippines if one performs its due diligence. But bear in
mind, the political processes in Philippine are complex which may lead to unpredictable legislative outcomes. And with a single-
term presidency, uncertainty and risks should be vigilantly monitored when investing in the country.
The People
“The youth is the hope of our future.” – Jose Rizal
Demography
Almost prophetic, the words of a Philippine national hero Jose Rizal transcend today an undeniable truth about the people of the
Philippines.
One observation in Philippine is the vast amount of young people at retail stores, cafes, hotel receptions or even along the streets.
There is a stark contrast in countries like Japan or Singapore, where you will be served mostly by a much more senior person. In
Singapore it is not unusual to witness a senior citizen working as a cleaner in an eatery.
Many western nations, Japan and even China today are wrestling with aging labor force while the emerging countries are basking in
the benefits of a fast-growing population. In the past, population growth has helped industrializing nations like the United States,
Europe or even Taiwan. This phenomenon is called the demographic dividend, driven by a young workforce being productive and
actively spending.
As of July 2014, the population of the Philippines reached more than 100 million, an estimated increase of 8% from 2010. This is
due to the population growth rate of 2.04% which is one of the highest growth rates in Asia.

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’
The chart below shows Philippine will be one of the leading ASEAN country to grow in labor force.

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Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam are countries that can enjoy demographic dividend too. However over a longer period, labor force
growth still favors the Philippines because it has the highest percentage of population age below 15 years old. This means
Philippine has an eventual younger pool of productive work force as compared to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam as seen in the
chart below.

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Philippine has also the lowest old age dependency ratio in Asia, with 6 persons aged 65 and above per 100 people of the population.
For comparison, Singapore and Thailand old age dependency ratio is 12 and 13 respectively. These are significant data because the
greatest potential supply of global human resource will reside in the Philippines up to 2030. Whether Filipinos are working
domestically or as Overseas Foreign Workers (OFW), they will be productive and earning an active income. This will provide support
for Philippine’s economy.
Foreign remittances in 2013 represent about 8.4% of Philippine’s GDP, mainly contributed by about 10 million OFWs. With almost
25% of the population still in poverty, the 10% OFW workforce is critical to support the economy.
As majority of the world ages, the increasing need for a younger
workforce will definitely benefit the Philippines.
The economic benefits will not simply land on Philippine’s lap, the
country have to restructure to ensure more Filipinos have access to
good education and skills training. The Business Processing Office
(BPO) industry needs to be reinforced with government support to
attract higher service level jobs. The latter point is the most critical
in view of the next global financial crisis because most companies
will be affected and cost-cutting measures will certainly motivate outsourcing to a lower cost country like the Philippines.
Filipinos need to know that they are part of a larger picture connected to a global future and the Philippines must continue its
current development path.

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The Economy
“Our country has the social and economic momentum to go from success to success, and truly make waves throughout our archipelago, in
the international community, and in the vast, immeasurable ocean of history”. – Philippine President Benigno Aquino
Economic Energy
Velocity of Money = GDP / Money Supply
The velocity of money is a difficult concept to explain, unless you are an economist scribbling numerous equations. For the general
audience, Philippine today is basking with economic energy due to the velocity of money. Each peso is passing on to the next clean
or greasy hand at speeds faster than Singapore. Stepping out of the airport, one may see the chaos as inefficiencies. But the
trained eyes see economic activities, transportation plying its trade at multiple levels, crumpled pesos exchanging hands from
counter brokers to taxi ushers to drivers.
Away from the airport, convenient stores are snugged in street corners selling meals and mobile phone load cards that are moving
as fast as 3-in-1 coffee sachets off the counters. Even a family gets their daily hygiene needs at the corner convenient stores. This is
the reality of the Philippines and the peso move.
These are just the obvious. What about the peso that is moving beneath the obvious?
Foreign Investments
Do you give a fish to a society to eat for a day or to teach it how to fish for a life time?
Usually foreign investments come in two types of packages, one may not be better than the other. But if the right type is
appropriately infused into a country, it can reap good economic rewards.
The easy type is foreign money injecting into non-infrastructure investments, called “hot or liquid money”. Hot money usually finds
its way into liquid assets like stocks or properties. If not managed properly it will leave Philippine as fast as it enters because it is
usually invested in easy-buy and easy-sell assets. Today, this type of money is very evident in the Philippines stock and property
markets. It is not surprising to witness the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) breaking new highs above 7,000 points from a low
of 2421.7 points in September 2008 during the global financial crisis. Take heed, Philippine’s economy is showing symptoms of an
inflated stock or a bubble-like property market.
The other type of foreign investment is foreign companies putting capital or CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) in the Philippines to
established business offices, manufacturing plants or R&D Centers. These are more holistic foreign investments because the
characteristic are long-term, high energy, create employment and inclusive growth.
On November 12, 2014 BusinesWorld reported that stainless steel vacuum flasks manufacturer Thermos will break ground on a
production facility in the Philippines. The initial investment of Php1.62 billion will employ 2,000 employees at the beginning and a
planned production of 10 million Thermos per year. This is a good example of structural foreign investment and the Philippines
government has to:
 Expedite infrastructure development.
 Revise business legislations to attract more multinational companies to set up operations in economic hubs laid out under the
NFPP.
Both types of investments have their merits but investing in stock or property markets is like trading an economy, which usually
creates asset bubbles for the country. Long-term structural foreign investments yield sustainable outcomes and set up economic
fortresses for a country.

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Infrastructure built during the Marcos era is still being used today to service a population growth of over 100% from the seventies.
Adding an automotive industry that has doubled to almost 250,000 new cars per year since 2004, structural change is inevitable.
The government and ruling elites are brilliant businessmen and they know the country will run out of bait for new money. The
world searching for investment yield will eventually pressure Philippine to change and today that change has its enemies.
Big Data
Government big data is for trading, street data is for investing. The grunt work from my business development years taught me the
streets will reveal the truth of an economy. This section will not be covering the broad topic of trading versus investing instead the
report will introduce some big data of the Philippines that should be further research.
Moody’s is one of the many rating agencies to upgrade the Philippines in 2013 and raised the country’s investment-grade rating to
Baa3. Even though a Baa3 rating seem pale compared to AA rating of some developed countries. This is a significant step in
opening up Philippine to larger fund managers to invest in the country that was previously restricted due to minimum rating
requirement.
http://gelookahead.economist.com/infograph/the-last-tiger-roars/

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The Philippines economy has been growing strength to strength since 2008, powered by foreign investments and domestic
consumption, averaging growth between 6-7% over the last few years.
The growth is mainly driven by foreign money trading the Philippine’s economy via the stock and property markets, which are highly
liquid assets. This can be qualified by the outflow of USD179.85 million, termed as hot money that caused the PSEI to drop below
the 7,000 mark in October 2014 – 52 weeks high was at 7,413.62. The correlation is substantiated by BSP reporting 71.4% of inflows
went into PSEI securities. In a Bloomberg article on October 30, 2014 HSBC Global Asset Management said the Philippines equity
market is overvalued.
One should question the increased private consumption of
Filipinos too. What do majority of Filipinos spent on?
Spending can be categorized into staple and discretionary
spending. Staple are everyday needs and discretionary are
things or services one can live without like a Rolex or Hermes
handbag.
With almost 25% poverty in the Philippines, credit card holders
estimated at only 7% of the total population and 71.4% of hot
money is invested in the stock market, are Filipinos rolling in
cash to buy out a Louis Vuitton boutique or majority of private
consumption is mainly driven by the need to spend on daily
needs with inflated price tags? Living among them, staples are
sold in daily portions for the masses and rice is bought in a
small plastic bag. It is in my view majority of Filipinos are still
spending on daily needs rather than on the next lifestyle
product. The Koreans know it and have beaten the world in
opening convenient stores in metro Manila.
Until Philippine has regulated consumer data, the private
consumption data should be challenged because a country’s
revenue may not be directly translated into individual revenue
without inclusive growth policy. With only 7% credit card
holders in the Philippines to support discretionary spending, it

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is not far-fetched to consider Philippine’s luxury market a possible bubble unless majority of Filipinos are cash rich.
Government Performance
Looking at the current running soap opera, the political jostling for 2016 election is putting the performance of Vice-President Binay
on a rocky path.
Outside of the daily drama, Philippine’s government has actually reduced debt to 37.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2014, a 6%
drop from 44.3% in 2009. For comparison, Singapore’s debt to GDP is over 100%. Take note that there are other hidden debt in
Philippine’s economy too.
Working with the government is the Central Bank of the Philippines, called Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). It has been exercising
better fiscal discipline over monetary policies as compared to other ASEAN neighbors. In 2014, the BSP raised benchmark interest
rate from record low of 3.5% to 4% and recently increased the capital requirement for banks to manage market speculation.
According to Asian Development Bank (ADB) projections, the Philippines will achieve GDP of US$663 billion by 2030 and Singapore
will achieve GDP of US$398 for the same year, beating Singapore’s GDP by US$265 billion. But hold on to the confetti, the
projection can only become reality if the Philippines government is committed to improving infrastructure for the country. Similarly,
BSP need to continue its fiscal discipline.
Nevertheless, 2016 is a crucial year for the Philippines and Filipinos should begin to mark their identity for 2016 onwards.
Property Market
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the addition of foreign investors to the potent combination of rising remittances from
Filipinos abroad and low borrowing costs is fueling speculative demand in the property market.

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According to Jones Lang Lasalle, properties priced Php10 million and above are considered high-end properties and represent
between 3-4% of the total property market. And 49-56% of residential properties are priced under Php3 million, representing a
portion of the mid-range properties.
High-End Apartments
Majority of foreign buyers acquire properties within the “Golden Triangle”, which is the Makati, Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas areas.
According to Colliers, Metro Manila had 57,710 condominium units in 2013 and estimated 8,180 new units will enter the property
market each year over the next four years. The new condominiums will raise the number of units in Makati, Rockwell, Fort, Ortigas
and Eastwood to 90,436 units by 2017.

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Type-A Filipino buyers are participants to the Golden Triangle too. Notice the word “participants” because largely the Type-A buyers
are buying as investment and not for stay. This beckons the question, who are going to stay in these high-end apartments? If the
answer is from expatriate rentals, please refer back to the section on foreign investment.
Mid-Range Apartments
No doubt Philippine has somewhat a housing shortage due to the fact that majority spends between 2-4 hours per day travelling to
and from work. The focus point should not be the number of units that have to be built to accommodate an infrastructure
deficiency but the affordability of these units, which eventually have to be shouldered by the elusive middle class.
The mid-range apartment usually would require a monthly amortization of about Php10,500 and a buyer would require a disposable
income greater than Php34,962 to get a housing loan of Php2 million. The developers are aggressively targeting this segment
because it is attractive especially to the OFWs. Bearing in mind, housing loan approval is generally approved to an OFW based on
his or her work contract.
There are legal differences between a work contract and a permanent employment within a country. Usually a permanent
employment carries protection from domestic manpower laws versus a work contract. When a contract worker completes its
contractual agreement or is terminated prematurely, the financial security that is supposed to support the mortgage repayment
ends too.
Today, there is almost non-existent property market data provided by the government to research the potential or risks of the
property market. Therefore, be cautiously optimistic when investing in Philippine’s property market. I encourage readers to be a
student of the 2008 global financial crisis or the Lehman Brothers collapse and understand the abstract meaning of “sub-primed
mortgage loan”. A more stable approach to investing in Philippine is to be long-term, past 2016.
The topic of property market is complex and this report is not intended to fully cover it. The aim is to highlight to readers the real
estate risks and rewards presently subdued within the Philippine’s property market.





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Ending Note
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Christine Lagarde lamented…that the world has “too little economic risk-taking, and too
much financial risk-taking.” In the Philippines, there might be both.
The BusinessMirror on November 10, 2014 reported that land values in at least seven Philippine cities climbed in the month of
September to levels higher than the 1997 peaks, which was the height of the housing bubble in Asia before the Asian financial crisis.
Putting into perspective, without concrete policies driving infrastructure change to support more foreign establishments and
anticipating there will be a robust real estate market may seem speculative.
The impending global debt crisis is unavoidable and Philippine is not inoculated to tackle the coming liquidity crunch, which the
country heavily relies on. Additionally, OFWs are not immune to the cost-cutting measures of overseas companies if their bottom
line needs to be salvaged. Without a low interest rate environment and secondary credit market offered by the property
developers, the new property sales market is technically unsustainable.
The Philippines government and BSP must avoid artificial asset price inflation in the country to prevent a potential 1997 Asian Crisis
scenario. Without structural changes, price inflation will not benefit the Philippines near-term with:
 Poverty estimated at 25% of the population.
 An elusive middle-class.
 No inclusive growth policies.
As I am typing the ending note, dance clubs will be lined with young people, malls basking with shoppers, socialites will be parading
their latest fashion. I ponder if the people are celebrating that the country has arrived or living in an artificial high to drown the
resounding reality.
The Philippines people have to justify their future, only they can honestly convince the world to embrace them economically.

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