1. Registrar’s Office
Master’s Thesis Evaluation
Student’s Personal Information
Matriculation N°
Family Name Predut
First Name Irina-Ionela
Major International Relations
Academic Advisor
Master’s Thesis Evaluation
Thesis Grade
(1.00, 1.33, 1.67, …, 4.00 or 5.00)
1.0
The Indebted Eurozone: A Non-Optimum Currency Area in a Time of Crisis
The recent economic crisis in the Euro Area has produced lots of economic, political and societal
controversies, many of which are highly emotionally charged. At the time of writing quite a few citizens and
observers in the EU member states are convinced that the crisis has been solved – and that the existing
monetary regime, the European Monetary Union, can be left intact.
Irina-Ionela Predut suggests with her thesis that this assumption is false and that the crisis has deeper roots
which have not been uncovered in the political decision-making process until today. Against the background
of various allegations of wrong-doing on the national level in countries such as Greece, Spain and Ireland in
the last couple of years, the author looks at causes of the crisis that are based in the European Monetary Union
itself. The first hypothesis of the thesis is that the recent economic crisis is an internal balance of payments
crisis. The second hypothesis is that such an internal balance of payments crisis could unfold because the
Euro Area is not an Optimal Currency Area, a concept that was developed by Robert Mundell and others
already in the 1950s. In a third hypothesis Irina-Ionela claims that an Optimal Currency Area has not been
installed through the EMU’s convergence criteria, firstly because these criteria do not address (many of the
most important) conditions of an Optimal Currency Area, and secondly because they have not been enforced
from the very beginning.
The strong argumentative structure of the thesis is also mirrored in its individual chapters, which are grouped
according to the three main hypotheses. In each of the three main chapters the selection of sources, countries
and methods of analysis is geared to the individual hypotheses with great skill. Each and every chapter shows a
remarkable knowledge of the literature, an impeccable understanding of economic, political and historical
developments and their complex interactions and remarkable judgment. Seemingly effortlessly, this thesis
progresses from one fundamental insight to the next while preparing a straightforward conclusion about a
complex topic. It has to be added that the thesis is devoted to a topic of international macroeconomics, an
advanced field of economics which rests on a solid understanding of both Macroeconomics and International
Economics – two subjects that are not taught in the IR-program. This thesis is by any standards a very
remarkable achievement.
Examiner’s Signature
I hereby submit the Master’s Thesis grade for the above-named student.
15.10.2014 Prof. Welf Werner
Date Name Signature

2. Registrar’s Office