In Q2 2023, Poland's economy faced a near-zero GDP growth, influenced by factors like heightened inflation, increased interest rates, and a challenging external environment. National Bank of Poland (NBP) responded promptly in Q3 2023 with interest rate cuts, though facing criticism alleging it to be election-related and premature. The NBP's strategic shift from aggressive rate hikes in 2022 to cuts in 2023 is expected to act as a cushion, potentially facilitating a soft landing for the economy throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Nevertheless, the rapid swing in monetary policy is likely to have repercussions, potentially leading to persistent higher inflation and potential setbacks in economic performance down the road. The surge in market interest rates, rising from zero to approximately 6.5% in 2022, had a profound impact on the banking sector. The escalating cost of money significantly influenced the new investment demand of corporations, while simultaneously limiting the capacity of individuals to secure new loans. Conversely, the notably higher interest rates, though still below inflation, spurred interest in depositing funds in banks. Consequently, overall client deposits at banks reached PLN 1.92 trillion in Q2 2023, reflecting an 11%+ change over 1½ years since the end of 2021. Concurrently, client loans experienced a contraction of over 2%, decreasing from PLN 1.29 trillion at the close of 2021 to PLN 1.26 trillion in Q2 2023. However, the impact of higher interest rates has proven overall beneficial for banks thus far. In 2022, banks operating in Poland recorded PLN 93 billion in net revenue (EUR 20 billion) and realized PLN 10.8 billion in net profits (EUR 2.4 billion). Despite all these challenges, the outlook for the sector remains fairly favorable. Elevated interest rates and higher-than-normal inflation are likely to boost banking volumes in nominal terms, ultimately leading to higher margins. It is plausible to expect a 10-12% year-on-year increase in client deposits through 2025, and a 4-6% growth in outstanding loans during the same period. Additionally, total banking assets are projected to grow steadily, potentially reaching PLN 3.5 trillion by the end of 2025. For more details, please refer to the complete research report on Poland's banking, accessible at: https://tinyurl.com/PLBANK23

1. BANKING MARKET IN POLAND, 2023-2025
CEE BANKING SERIES
by Inteliace Research
November 2023
Version: 23.b

2. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
2
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3. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Table of contents (1/3)
3
Slide 1: Executive summary
1. Macroeconomic overview
Slide 2: Poland - General overview
Slide 3: Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe, 2022
Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2018-2023F
Slide 5: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2018-2023F
Slide 6: Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2018-2023F
Slide 7: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2017-Sep.2023
2.1. Banking market - General trends
Slide 8: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2020-2022
Slide 9: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2022
Slide 10: Structure of the Polish Banking Sector - types of banks and their size/count, 1H2023
Slide 11: Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2019-1H2023
Slide 12: Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2022
Slide 13: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2018-1H2023
Slide 14: Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2018-1H2023
Slide 15: Top 10 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 1H2023
Slide 16: Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2016-1H2023
Slide 17: Concentration of the banking market, 2021 vs. 2022 (Assets, HH Index)
Slide 18: Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
Slide 19: Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2018-1H2023
Slide 20: Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2020-Jun.2023
Slide 21: Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2007-1H2023
Slide 22: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, Jan. 2019- Oct. 2023
Slide 23: Inter-bank interest rates, Jan 2013 – Sep. 2023: (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
Slide 24: Tier 1 capital, CAR ratio for banks, 2020-Jun. 2023
Slide 25: Bank outlets by groups of bank, agencies, 2018-2023
Slide 26: Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 27: Direct employee costs evolution, 2017-2022
Slide 28: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, ATM players, 1H2023
Slide 29: POS number and transaction value evolution 2018-1H2023, POS players, 2022

4. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Table of contents (2/3)
4
3. Retail banking
Slide 30: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2018-1H2023
Slide 31: Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2018-1H2023
Slide 32: Household deposits by type (current vs. term) and by client sub-segments, 2021-1H2023
Slide 33: TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 1H2023
Slide 34: Payment account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2020
Slide 35: Bank account penetration & gap: Poland vs. other Europe, 2021
Slide 36: Number of customers and number of current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 1H2023
Slide 37: Retail deposits at major retail banks. Average deposit per single (current) account, 1H2023
Slide 38: Total retail accounts at major banks - recent evolution, 2015-1H2023
Slide 39: Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2022
Slide 40: Total number of accounts with online and mobile access, 2016-2022
Slide 41: Top banks by number of active mobile app users, 2022
Slide 42: Key mobile payment services in Poland classified by origin of funds, 2023
Slide 43: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2018-1H2023
Slide 44: Investment funds - top 10 players, September 2023
Slide 45: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 46: Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 47: Mortgage to household sector by currency- outstanding value, 2018-1H2023
Slide 48: Mortgage to household sector – new sales, 2018-1H2023
Slide 49: Consumer lending outstanding evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 50: Consumer lending – new sales, 2020- 1H2023
3.1. Payment cards
Slide 51: Cards issued by type, 2018-1Q 2023
Slide 52: Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2019-2021
Slide 53: Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2021
Slide 54: Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2018-2022
Slide 55: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2018-2022
Slide 56: Top players in credit cards business - issuers, co-branding partners, 1H2023
4. Corporate banking
Slide 57: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2021
Slide 58: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2016-2022
Slide 59: Number of companies by turnover (companies with 10+ employees), 2022
Slide 60: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2018-1H2023
Slide 61: Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 1H2023
Slide 62: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2016-2022
Slide 63: Factoring market, top players, 2018-2022
Slide 64: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2018-2022

5. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Table of contents (3/3)
5
5. Banks' profitability
Slide 65: Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, Jan. 2020-Sep.2023
Slide 66: Commercial banks - profitability tree, 2019-2022
Slide 67: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2022 (PKO, Pekao, Santander, mBank, ING)
Slide 68: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
Slide 69: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2022
Slide 70: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2022
6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity
Slide 71: Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, Jan. 2020– Oct. 2023
Slide 72: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
Slide 73: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, Nov. 2023
Slide 74: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 1H2023
Slide 75: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/4), 2005-2008
Slide 76: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/4), 2009-2011
Slide 77: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/4), 2012-2016
Slide 78: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (4/4), 2017-
7. Top 5 banks - Profiles
Slide 79-80: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
Slide 81-82: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
Slide 83-84: Bank profiles: Santander
8. Mid-term forecasts
Slide 85: Forecast - household loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
Slide 86: Forecast - corporate loans & deposits, 2023-2025F
Slide 87: Forecast - banking assets, 2023-2025F
9. Notes on methodology

6. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
131
114
110
108
104
102
101
94
89
89
89
87
83
80
69
50
Czech Rep.
Croatia
Montenegro
Hungary
Estonia
Slovak Rep.
Nt.Macedonia
Bulgaria
Albania
Poland
BiH
Slovenia
Lithuania
Serbia
Latvia
Romania
Banking asset penetration in Poland is close to CEE averages
6
Banking assets/capita, 2022
EUR `000
Banking assets/GDP, 2022
percent
35.1
28.4
24.3
20.6
19.8
19.8
18.5
15.5
14.4
11.6
10.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
6.4
6.0
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Slovenia
Slovak Rep.
Lithuania
Croatia
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Bulgaria
Montenegro
Romania
Nt.Macedonia
Serbia
BiH
Albania
CEE 16*
weighted
average: 94
CEE 16*
weighted
average: 15.8
* Major 16 CEE countries. Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Kosovo not included
Source: Central banks, Eurostat, Inteliace Research

7. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
NPL ratios* have stabilized since 2022. A worsening in credit quality might be
expected in late 2023/2024 due to ageing lending stock and lower new sales
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23
Corporate
Retail,
including mortgage
In billion PLN
Corporate
Retail
The level of non-performing loans has stabilized recently. However, a
moderate increase in NPL ratios is likely to occur through late 2023 and in
2024 due to lower sales of new loans and ageing existing portfolios
Combined volume of non-
performing loans
(retail+corporate):
PLN ~65 billion as of Jun. 2023
* NPL: non-performing loans vs. total lending portfolios
Source: NBP, KNF, Inteliace Research
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23
Non performing loans (value) by client segment, 2020-Jun 2023
In PLN billion
Share of NPL* in total loans by client segment, 2020-Jun 2023
In percent
In %
(share of total loans)

8. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
A recent surge in interest rates has encouraged customers to shift funds from
current accounts into term deposits
8
* A slight discrepancy between NBP and KNF figures exists
** Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: NBP, Inteliace Research
• Nearly 70% of all deposits are held in current accounts but the share of current accounts
is falling while the share of term deposits expands
• Nearly 11% of household deposits comes from individual entrepreneurs: farmers or other
Deposits* of households by maturity, 2021-1H23
In percent, totals in PLN trillion
Deposits* of households by sub-segments, 2021-1H23
In percent
Current accounts
including saving
accounts payable
without notice
Term deposits
Private
individuals
Entrepreneurs
Farmers
84
71 68
16 29 32
2021 2022 1H23
92 91 89
6 7
9
2 2
2
2021 2022 1H23
Total, 100%=
PLN 1.06 t 1.09 t
1.15 t
Total, 100%=
PLN 1.06 t 1.09 t 1.15 t
NBP* DATA

9. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Profitability of banks has improved in 2022
9
Profit before tax and
extraordinary items
Extraordinary items & taxes
Profit after tax
Net interest revenue
Net fee & commission revenue
Operating profit
Wages & social security
Net reserves
FX, trade and other
Banking sector* profitability, 2019-2022
Percent of average assets,
(May not always sum to 100% due to rounding)
* Including cooperative sector and foreign bank branches operating in Poland
** Based on average equity
Source: KNF, NBP, Inteliace Research
Interest margin
was up in 2022
Costs & charges & other
Depreciation
Other operating costs
Cost to income ratio ROAE**
Personnel costs are
under control
ALL BANKS*
0.73
-0.01
0.30 0.41
2019 2020 2021 2022
1.0 0.2 0.5 1.0
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6
2019 2020 2021 2022
2.6 2.7 2.2 2.5
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9
2019 2020 2021 2022
2.5 2.2 1.9
2.9
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2019 2020 2021 2022
0.4
0.0
0.1
-0.1
2019 2020 2021 2022
3.6 2.8 2.7 3.5
2019 2020 2021 2022
6.9
-0.1
3.5 5.4
2019 2020 2021 2022
55.6 63.4 59.6 53.5
2019 2020 2021 2022
Net profit margin
stabilized
Overall costs
are stable
F&C margin
is flat
Risk costs are
under control
Cost to income
remains stable
Operating result
improved in 2022

10. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Retail banking business accounts for ca. 49% of volumes, 54% of revenues and just a
fraction of profits at major banks in Poland
10
49 54
24
34
42 104
17
5
-28
Assets + Liabilities*** Revenues Profit before tax
3534 billion
Profit pool by client segment for sample of 9 commercial banks*, 2022
Percent, totals in PLN billion
17.0 billion
73.4 billion
Retail
Corporate
Other**
100.0 2.08 0.48
100%=
Share of A+L
in percent
Banks included
in the sample:
• PKO
• Pekao
• ING
• mBank
• Citibank
• Millennium
• Alior
• Santander
• BNP Paribas
* Sample of 9 large banks (PKO, Pekao, ING, mBank, Citibank, Millennium, Alior, Santander, BNP Paribas)
** Including treasury operations, foreign exchange, government bonds, securities, own investments and other unallocated items
*** Sum of assets and liabilities allocated to corresponding segments
Source: Banks, KNF, Inteliace Research
SAMPLE (% of total market):
• 65% assets & liabilities
SAMPLE OF
9 BANKS*

11. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
In 2022, banks recorded over PLN 93 billion in total revenues and earned nearly
PLN 11 billion (EUR 2.4 billion) in net profits
11
All banks - Profit and loss accounts, 2022
PLN billion
* Including foreign bank branches operating in Poland and cooperative banks
Source: NBP, KNF, GUS, Inteliace Research
Costs
Revenues
ALL BANKS*
2022
76.1
18.5
-1.4
93.1
20.5
4.6
24.8
17.1
26.2
15.3
10.8
Net
interest
income
Net
fees &
commiss
ions
FX, trade
& other
banking
revenue
Personnel
costs
Other
operating
costs
Costs of
risk (net
reserves)
Profit
before tax
& other
items
Taxes &
other
items
Net
profit
In %
of operating revenue
Depre-
ciation
Operating
revenue
(May not always sum to 100% due to rounding)
82 20 -2 100 22 5 27 18 28 16 12
Profits

12. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Notes on methodology
12
FX rates:
• As a general rule all “end of year” balances like: assets, deposits, loans and similar volumes have been converted from the local
currency into Euro using end of year exchange rate
• All results achieved during a period of time like: profits, revenues, new sales etc. have been converted from the local currency
into Euro using average exchange rate
• Exchange rates used in the report:
Estimates and Forecasts:
• In some cases, recent or verified data was not available. Therefore, necessary short-term estimations have been done to fill the
gaps. Estimates are always indicated with the letter “E”
• When preparing forecasts “F” we have built models using latest observed trends, available forecasts of main economic
indicators, seasonal changes observed in the past and other specific factors considered important
Multiple sources:
• In some cases multiple sources of similar data exist. In this situation we always try to select the most appropriate one /in our
view/. The source is indicated in the footer area of each slide. Nevertheless in specific cases, before interpreting the data it is
recommended to get a good understanding on the methodology of data collection by contacting the authors
EUR / PLN 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23
Average 4.18 4.36 4.26 4.26 4.30 4.44 4.57 4.69 4.63
End of period 4.26 4.42 4.17 4.30 4.26 4.61 4.60 4.69 4.45
Source: NBP

13. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
About the report and its authors
About Inteliace Research
Inteliace Research is an independent and privately owned
research firm based in the heart of Eastern Europe in
Warsaw / Poland.
Our company specializes in value-added research services
and tailored business intelligence solutions.
Through our customized research services we help our
clients to better understand their customers, competitors
and overall market dynamics.
The lead researcher and founder of Inteliace Research is
Marcin Mazurek.
Our contact details:
Inteliace Research
Warszawa, Poland
Tel. +48 22 408 66 20, Tel. +48 502 512 178
Fax. +48 22 349 21 40
mail: info @ inteliace.com
www: http://www.inteliace.com/en/publications.html
About this report
This report has been prepared using Inteliace Research
proprietary research, publicly available resources,
including: financial reports, press publications, industry
magazines, directories, financial databases, expert
opinions and Inteliace's proprietary views. Facts, figures
and opinions presented in this report reflect solely the
view of Inteliace Research or respective authors.
While due care has been taken in producing this
publication, Inteliace Research assumes no responsibility
or liability for any omissions or inaccuracies, especially
concerning facts, figures, and opinions within this
publication.
This publication does not constitute investment advice
and should not be considered as an offer or indication to
buy or sell any security.
This report is copyrighted. Any distribution, storage,
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info @ inteliace.com.
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14. Inteliace Research
Banking
Market
in
Poland,
2022-2024
Recent publications by Inteliace Research
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