London & Partners Insight Summary Report #10

Copyright, London & Partners, 2020.
INSIGHTS UPDATE
Report #10
26th March 2021

Welcome
This report is presented as a
summary of insights gathered
from a range of external sources
with the intention of providing an
overview of current developments
in the coronavirus pandemic
crisis.
The content is focused on
London & Partners’ core target
audiences and markets. It
represents the current situation
as of March 26th, 2021.

General Updates

Over 120 million cases now recorded globally
As of 25th March, there have now been 124.2 million confirmed cases globally
reported to the WHO, including 2.7 million deaths. After 6 consecutive weeks of
falling new cases to mid-February, rates have increased again in each of the
last 4 weeks globally, with 3.29 million cases recorded in the week of March
15th, up 32 percent since February, with 1.4 million cases reported in Europe
last week. (Source: WHO, link)
US case rates continue to fall
The US has now recorded nearly 30 million cases and over 540,000 deaths.
Daily cases were at record levels in early January, but they have continued to
fall substantially in the last few weeks. Canada, which has a far lower death
rate than the US, also experienced a winter surge. Daily cases fell in January
before levelling off in March. (Source: BBC News, link, WHO, link)
Signs of cases increasing in India
India has seen more than 11.6 million confirmed cases, the third-highest in the
world after the US and Brazil. After a sustained fall in cases since a peak last
September, new cases have been rising again in India in each of the past 5
weeks, including a sharp rise of over 60 percent last week alone. (Source:
BBC News, link)
Concerns continue in Brazil
In Latin America, a new virus variant has continued to spread rapidly in Brazil –
which has now recorded almost 12 million confirmed cases and 300,000 deaths
- the world's second highest death toll. Over 500,000 new cases were reported
last week alone, plus more than 2,700 deaths on several consecutive days last
week, the highest totals the country has seen. (Source: BBC News, link)
Global new cases
• Indicationsthat, globally,new caserates are onceagain
increasing– despiteprogressbeingmade with
vaccinationprogrammes
• New virusvariantscontinueto raiseconcernsin some
regions

(Sources: BBC News, link, European Centre for Disease
Prevention and Control, link, Our World in Data, link)
The European picture
• A‘third wave’of infections is starting to hit in
Europe prompting concern in many countries
• Impacts of UK’s progress in vaccination
programme now being seen as cases fall
European hotspots
Several European countries including Italy, France and Poland are seeing
sharp rises in infections once more, prompting French Prime Minister
Jean Castex to say that a "third wave" of infections looked increasingly
likely, and has led to new measures have been introduced in France to
tackle rising numbers.

London vaccination progress
Up to and including 14th March 2021, 2,508,347 people in London had
received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 149,976 had received
two doses. This equates to 35.2 percent of London’s population having
received their first dose, with 2.1 percent being fully vaccinated. (Source:
London Datastore, link)
London cases lower than England average
The total of 706,856 Coronavirus cases have been reported in London as
of 20th of March. This compares to 3,759,280 cases for England as a
whole. December and January represented the worst months for London
in terms of cases, however, after a steady reduction of cases in February,
cases in March have stayed stable and low, returning London to pre-
second wave levels. In the most recent week of complete data, 10-16th
March 2021, 3,377 cases were identified in London, a rate of 38 cases per
100,000 population. This is roughly one-third less than the rate for
England as a whole (57 cases per 100,000). (Source: London Datastore,
link)
The London picture
• Significant drop in cases bring London
to pre-second wave levels
London sees 2 deaths in one day as UK deaths hit 6-month low
Two deaths were announced on the 22nd of March in London, within 28
days of the individuals testing positive for the virus, a far cry compared to
the peak daily death tolls of more than 200 in mid-January. (Source:
Evening Standard, link)

Coronavirus potentially present in China as early as October 2019
Scientists from University of California San Diego calculate that people in
Hubei may have contracted the coronavirus several weeks before the first
known cases were officially detected in late December 2019. (Source:
Futurity, link)
Administered coronavirus vaccines triple from early February
As of March 24th, China's daily output of coronavirus vaccines has
reached about 5 million doses, more than tripling the 1.5 million-dose daily
production rate on Feb 1, according to Chinese officials. China aims to
vaccinate 40 percent of its 1.4 billion people by the middle of the year,
according to state media and a top health adviser. (Source: CNA, link)
China announces sanctions on EU in tit-for-tat diplomatic dispute
In the first co-ordinated action by Western nations this year, the U.S., EU,
U.K. and Canada imposed sanctions on Chinese officials in late March.
The countries cited human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region of China —
accusations Beijing has repeatedly denied. The Chinese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs responded quickly with its own broad list of sanctions on
EU entities and individuals. As a result, these people and their families will
not be able to enter mainland China, Hong Kong or Macao. (Source:
CNBC, link)
Chinese vaccines efforts
triple, while officials
impose retaliatory tariffs
on EU
• With low rates of cases, China has taken its
time with vaccines but now seeing rapid
increase in inoculations
• China imposes sanctions on EU, as it flexes
its economic power

Series of shootings in U.S. puts gun control centerstage once again
U.S. President Joe Biden urged Congress to swiftly pass gun control laws
and may take action on his own to stop mass violence, the White House
said a day after the second deadly mass shooting in a week. “I don’t need to
wait another minute - let alone an hour - to take common-sense steps that
will save the lives in the future, and I urge my colleagues in the House and
Senate to act,” Biden said at the White House on the 23rd of March.
(Source: Reuters, link)
U.S. celebrates 100 million vaccine milestone with sharing of vaccines
The White House announced it is working through the technicalities to loan
2.5 million doses to Mexico and 1.5 million doses to Canada from its
stockpile of 7 million doses. This comes as a relief as the United States has
vaccinated more than 12 percent of its population according to Johns
Hopkins data, while Canada has vaccinated only 1.7 percent of its
population and Mexico just 0.5 percent. (Source: NPR, link)
Canada hopes to ramp up vaccine inoculations in the coming weeks
Sitting at only 11 doses administered per 100 people, Canada is severely
lagging its peers, with United States at triple that rate. However, Canada is
expecting to see a major ramp-up in deliveries of vaccines, with large
shipments set to begin arriving at the end of March, with one million Pfizer
doses per week due for the next several weeks. (Source: News1130, link)
U.S. vaccine progress
deemed a success, while
Canada lags behind
• U.S. celebrates 100 million vaccine milestone
with loan program to help struggling
neighbours
• Canada expected to receive new batches of
vaccines to help speed vaccine efforts

India expands list of those who can be vaccinated to 45 and older
Those who are 45 years old and above can be vaccinated from April 1,
according to Indian government officials. This comes as India passes the
50 million vaccination mark, an impressive figure, however, given India’s
1.36 billion population, it still has a long way to go. Expanding to 45 years
and above is surprising for Western countries who are far ahead in their
rollout, but this is mainly due to India having fewer older people as a
proportion of their population. (Source: The Hindu, link)
India experiences biggest spike in cases in over 4 months
For the fourth consecutive day, more than 40,000 new cases have been
reported in India, as it becomes the world’s third most affected country, in
terms of daily cases. Additionally, the active caseload registered an
increase for the 14th day in a row, throwing India into a second wave.
(Source: NDTV, link)
Fears over ‘double mutant' variant found in India
A new double mutant variant of the coronavirus and 771 others have been
detected in samples collected from 18 states across India. Of the 10,787
samples, 736 were positive for the UK variant, 34 for the South African
variant and one for the Brazilian variant. "A double mutation in the key
areas of the virus's spike protein may increase these risks and allow the
virus to escape the immune system and make it more infectious,” virologist
Shahid Jameel explained. (Source: BBC, link)
India entering 2nd wave
after sharp increase in
cases
• With over 47,000 cases in a day, India
returns to a dangerous situation with
lockdowns expected to curb virus

Vaccine scepticism rises due to concerns around AstraZeneca vaccine
France is trying to counter scepticism and kickstart its AstraZeneca
vaccination campaign after days of confusing statements about the safety of
the jab. Figures from the health authority, Santé Publique France, show that
the uptake of the AstraZeneca vaccine dropped to just over 66,000 and
62,000 doses on Friday and Saturday, down from an average of over
90,000 doses every day during the previous week. In a bid to reassure the
public, French Prime Minister Jean Castex was photographed getting the
AstraZeneca jab, but some doctors say many patients no longer trust the
AstraZeneca vaccine after the government suspended its use for several
days. (Source: Politico, link)
Areas of France to re-enter lockdown
Stricter lockdown measures were introduced in 16 French departments from
March 20th as cases continue to rise in France, the rules could be extended
to more areas. Professor Arnaud Fontanet of pandemic advisory body le
Conseil scientifique, said that rising cases could affect large portions of the
country. He said: “Except for the Atlantic coast and maybe Corsica…We
fear that the other regions will soon move into a very difficult situation with
the surge of the UK variant.” (Source: Connexion, link)
Macron announces “change of pace” from April for vaccines
While France’s vaccination drive has sped up in recent weeks, it has failed
to keep step with a spike in new cases. As a result, The government
announced on the 22nd March that the army would set up 35 mass
vaccination centres across the country to help boost vaccination efforts.
(Source: The Local, link)
Parts of France re-enter
lockdown as cases
surge amid problems
with vaccine skepticism
• While President Macron promises an
increase in vaccines forApril, the French
public is one of the most hesitant towards
vaccines

Germany's Ifo institute cuts GDP growth forecast for 2021 to
3.7percent
Delaying of reopening has dampened hopes for a strong economic
recovery this year, as the Ifo institute cut its 2021 growth forecast for
Germany to 3.7 percent from 4.2 percent previously. “The coronavirus
crisis is dragging on, and this is pushing back the expected strong
upswing,” Ifo’s chief economist said. For 2022, Ifo raised its GDP growth
forecast to 3.2 percent from 2.5 percent. (Source: Reuters, link)
Germany backtracks on Easter lockdown extension after backlash
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of Germany's 16 states
will reverse their plan to toughen virus lockdown measures over Easter.
Merkel announced the changes after an impromptu videoconference with
the 16 regional leaders in which she explained the u-turn and said the
mistake was ultimately hers to answer for. Merkel said that on closer
analysis, the planned shutdown risked doing more harm than good. She
also said there was not enough time to adequately offset some of the
problems that would come with it, such as lost earnings and working
hours. (Source: DW, link)
Germany looks to boost vaccine drive in April
“The motto is ‘vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate’,” German Chancellor
Angela Merkel said after a meeting with leaders from Germany’s 16
federal states, adding “I think we have a good chance of offering a vaccine
to every resident by the end of the summer.” Germany expects to receive
15 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the second quarter, a few
million fewer than initially expected, but the government hopes
vaccinations could take place in doctors’ practices from April 19th at the
latest to speed up administration. (Source: Reuters, link)
U-turn on lockdown
extension means
Germany to slightly open
over Easter but fears of
3rd wave persist
• Public backlash and last minute decision-
making means Germany will not extend
lockdown, despite a rise in cases, putting
pressure on quicker vaccine rollout
• As a result, economic growth forecast for
2021 is lowered

Beer gardens fully booked for coming months
After months of lockdown, the re-opening of beer gardens and other
outdoor areas of pubs and restaurants on April 12th has led to pubs around
the country reporting that their tables on weekends have already been fully
for the next coming months. Despite the strong demand, many proprietors
are concerned that the rush to make bookings could potentially lead to
last-minute cancellations and no-shows. (Source: The Guardian, link)
England re-opening plan laid out in full
The next relaxation of rules in England comes on 29th March, with more
restrictions to be lifted on 12th April and then every five weeks after this:
• From 29th March: groups of 6 will be able to meet outside, even in
private gardens or outdoor spaces.
• From 12th April: all retail shops are set to reopen, as well as gyms, spas
and community centres, while restaurants and pubs can serve outdoors.
• From 17th May: restaurants and pubs will be able to serve inside as
well, while people can meet in each others' homes, up to 6 people or 2
households and is the earliest date for international travel may resume
• From 21st June: all other social distancing limits will be lifted
However, these lifting of restrictions are reliant on the following:
• The coronavirus vaccine programme continues to go to plan
• Vaccines are sufficiently reducing the number of people dying or
needing hospital treatment
• Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions
• New coronavirus variants do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting
restrictions (Source: BBC, link)
England’s re-opening
plans have lead to huge
surge in bookings for
pub gardens
• Clear plan laid out by prime minister for
reopening of economy, however highly
dependent on cases remaining low and
vaccine program continuing as planned

Medical
developments

No proof of link between AstraZeneca vaccine and blood clots
EMA’s safety committee, PRAC, concluded its preliminary review of a signal
of blood clots in people vaccinated with AstraZeneca at its meeting of 18th
March 2021. The Committee confirmed that:
• the benefits of the vaccine in combating coronavirus continue to outweigh
the risk of side effects;
• the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood
clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it;
• there is no evidence of a problem related to specific batches of the
vaccine or to particular manufacturing sites;
• however, the vaccine may be associated with very rare cases of blood
clots associated with thrombocytopenia, i.e. low levels of blood platelets
with or without bleeding, including rare cases of clots in the vessels
draining blood from the brain (CVST).
(Source: European Medicines Agency, link)
U.S. health agency casts doubt over new AstraZeneca trial
Results from a US trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine appear to confirm that it
is both safe and highly effective. It showed that the vaccine was 79 percent
effective at stopping symptomatic coronavirus disease and 100 percent
effective at preventing people from falling seriously ill, however, a U.S. health
agency, the NIAID, have “expressed concern that AstraZeneca may have
included outdated information from that trial, which may have provided an
incomplete view of the efficacy data.” (Source: CNBC, link)
AstraZeneca vaccine
takes centre stage
• NewAstraZenecatrials show effectiveness,
however, there are claims that potentially the
trial may have an incomplete view of the data
• Blood clots are not a result ofAstraZeneca
vaccine, according to EU MedicinesAgency
• Johnson & Johnson vaccine approved but
faces hesitant public
Johnson & Johnson vaccine approved in the US
The US FDA has approved the use of the J&J vaccine, with the government
ordering 100 million doses for 2021. There was initial excitement around the
fact that the jab is only a one-shot treatment, however there are concerns
around it’s efficacy leading to people refusing to take the shot and asking for
another instead. (Source: BBC, link)

Europe continues use of AstraZeneca vaccines
The EU's leading states are to restart their roll-out of the Oxford-
AstraZeneca vaccine after Europe's medicines regulator concluded it was
"safe and effective” and found the jab was "not associated" with a higher
risk of clots. However, A recent YouGov poll showed that more than 50
percent of people surveyed in France, Germany and Spain now believe
the AstraZeneca vaccine is unsafe.(Source: BBC, link)
Israel still world leader in vaccines administered
With over 113 vaccines administered per 100 people, Israel is still the
world leaders in the race for a vaccinated populace. As of March 15th , 50
percent of Israel’s population had been fully vaccinated, resulting in the
average amount of cases in March halving, despite rules being relatively
loosened. (Source: Our World in Data, link)
Biden says US to hit 100 million vaccine goal, 6 weeks early
President Biden has announced that as of March 21st, the U.S. will have
not only hit their target of 100 million vaccines administered in 100 days,
but that it has come 42 days earlier than planned. The US is now injecting
an average of about 2.2 million doses each day, by far the most vaccines
of any country (Source: ABC News, link)
Global Vaccine Progress
• U.S. and U.K. shoot ahead while Europe still lags
Concerns persist over Europe’s lagging vaccination rollout
Europe’s vaccination campaign, so far, has not seen the same success as
the UK or US. The slowness of the rollout in the E.U. has been attributed
to several reasons: late approval of the vaccines, bureaucratic
procurement processes and delays in production. However, the European
Commission still pledges that everyone in the E.U. will be offered a
vaccine by the end of September. But unless the bloc picks up the pace,
about only 38 percent of its E.U. residents will be vaccinated by Sept. 22nd
(Source: Time, link)

EU announces an increased control over vaccine exports
New regulations announced by the EU would block shipments to
countries, including the UK, with higher rates of vaccination. It will also
drop previous exemptions that had allowed authorization-free export to 17
nearby countries. The ban potentially could set back the UK target date of
a first dose for all adults by early June to early August, when combined
with the supply issues with India’s Serum Institute, according to a study by
the Guardian. (Source: The Guardian, link) (Source: DW, link)
UK currently on track to vaccinate by mid-summer
More than 25 million people in the UK have received at least one dose of a
coronavirus vaccine, second only to the United States in the world. The
programme in England is currently inviting those aged 50 and above to
book appointments – with the goal of administering the first vaccine dose
to about 32 million people in nine priority groups by 15 April. These groups
account for 88percent of all coronavirus deaths. (Source: BBC, link)
Supply issues could potentially slow vaccination progress
Vaccination sites have been ordered to scale back plans for jabs beyond
29th March - after NHS officials confirmed that a four-week delay in
vaccine supply will 'significantly constrain' rollout. Currently the UK is
administering 0.87 vaccines per hundred, triple that of the EU average, but
with AstraZeneca vaccines from India’s Serum Institute originally bound to
the UK reportedly being held up - this slowdown in supply may make a
dent in the UK’s vaccine rollout. (Source: CNBC, link)
UK Vaccine Progress

Economic impact

Trade with the EU impacted
Data for January shows the value of UK trade fell by 19.3 percent, however,
The collapse was not equal, with EU imports and exports falling by 40.9 percent
and 28.9 percent respectively whilst Non-EU exports rising 1.4 percent, and
imports falling 13 percent. The running down of stockpiles and introduction of
non-tariff barriers to trade are cited as key reasons for this. (Source: IBIS World,
link)
Bloomberg also reported on March 18th that demand to move cargo from France
to U.K. fell in the previous week and that Britain’s trade with the rest of Europe
remains below levels prevailing a year ago, according to data from consultancy
Sixfold. Average weekly volumes of border crossings for both imports and
exports were down about a fifth from the same period a year ago. (Source:
Bloomberg, link)
London is still top for financial services post-Brexit
London has retained its position as Europe’s leading financial centre, according
to Z/Yen’s latest Global Financial Centres Index. Only New York remains ahead
of London globally, but Asian competitors Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore
are closing the gap behind. Amsterdam, despite boosting its share trading post-
Brexit, is still ranked as 29th in the index. (Source: City AM link)
Post-Brexit deal for the City nears
Britain and the EU are said to be close to striking a limited deal on post-Brexit
financial services co-operation following months of negotiations, with partial
regulatory equivalence on some financial products and an MOU on regulation
reportedly on the horizon. The Telegraph reports that it is expected to include
agreement that regulators keep each other informed of their plans for taxation
and measures to counter financial crimes. (Source: The Daily Telegraph link)
1. HEADLINE
implications
Brexit Impact on Trade
• Further data on the Brexittrade impact willbe
important to watch incoming months to gauge the
trend
• The outcome of the agreement on Financial
Serviceswillbe of huge importanceto London’s
reputation,withAsianfinancehubsclosingthegap
on it’s positionglobally.

Macroeconomic scenarios for London
GLA Economics has published an update of its high-level macroeconomic
scenarios for London, post coronavirus, including projections to 2030. Key
findings include:
• The fall in economic activity has been less strong than originally feared;
• Recovery to pre-coronavirus levels of output, though, is not expected to be
until 2022;
• The extension of the furlough scheme to the Autumn, and after public health
restrictions are much eased, is likely to dampen possible adverse effects on
jobs and reduce scarring;
• Jobs recovery is likely to be moderate because of the effects of Brexit, and the
disproportionate impact of social distancing on sectors such as the arts and
hospitality
London Sectors: GVA growth 2021-22
1. HEADLINE
implications
London’s Economic Outlook
• Strongerrecoverynot expected until2022
• Employmentrecoveryis projectedto be
significantlyslowerthan output recovery,so that
pre-crisisemployment levelsare not reached
before Q4 2023 inthe Gradual economicrecovery
scenario.
(Source: GLA Economics link)

Consumer
perceptions

There is a perception that we have turned a corner
The proportion who believe ‘the worst has passed’ in relation to COVID-19
has risen to 40 percent from 19 percent in January. (Source: VisitEngland,
link)
Returning to ‘normality’ is anticipated from October
The October to December period is when the majority of the U.K. adult
population expect some form of normality. There are some who anticipate
it sooner, 10 percent believe life will return to something ‘close to normal’
by June this year. (Source: VisitEngland, link)
A roadmap of the easing of
restrictions and the vaccine
roll out success is
influencing consumer
confidence
• Consumers are feeling more confident about their
personal finances
• Job security has improved as furlough scheme is
extended until the end of September
• Normality is looking more likely by the end of the
year
The UK is starting to feel safer in engaging in activities
March results from the monthly Deloitte’s covid tracker highlights
improvements across all areas of activity compared to the month before:
• 53 percent feel safe going to the store
• 42 percent feel safe engaging in person-to-person services
• 32 percent feel safe staying in a hotel
• 31 percent feel safe going to a restaurant
• 25 percent feel safe taking a flight
• 21 percent feel safe attending in-person events
(Source: Deloitte, link)
Consumers are starting to feel more confident
According to the latest analysis from YouGov and the Centre for
Economics and Business Research (Cebr), consumer confidence has
risen to the highest level since the pandemic started. (Source: YouGov,
link)

FDI & Business

UK tech VC investment is third in the world, hitting a record high of
$15bn in 2020 in the face of challenging conditions
The UK witnessed another record year for VC investment in tech in 2020,
strengthening its position as third in the world behind only China and the
US. London is fourth for tech VC investment globally (with $10.6bn), behind
San Francisco ($21.6bn), Beijing ($16.6bn) and New York $15.2bn), closely
followed by Shanghai ($10.5bn). (Source: TechNation, link)
London retains second place in Global Cities of the Future ranking
Amid a challenging period for the global economy and FDI, Singapore held
onto top spot in fDi Intelligence's Global Cities of the Future ranking for the
fourth time in a row, with London retaining second place and Dubai in third.
London topped the Megacities overall ranking and ranked well in the
Human Capital and Lifestyle category. Amsterdam had the highest inward
FDI per 100,000 people from 2015-2020, Dublin followed very closely
behind, with both two cities primed to benefit from any Brexit-related
exodus of firms from London. (Source: fDi Intelligence, link)
Impact of coronavirus on FDI in 2020: One-third decline in projects
Global corporate expansion showed a significant drop in 2020, and
Wavteq’s latest forecast shows greenfield jobs and capital investment
globally will not return to 2019 levels until 2024. Analysis of 2020 FDI
projects by sector shows a strong increase in market share for renewable
energy, communications and consumer products; whilst hotels and
tourism, automotive components and textiles had the toughest 2020
compared to 2019. (Source: Wavteq, link)
London remains a highly
attractive destination in a
subdued global FDI
landscape
Implications:
• London’s strengths as a megacity with
associated agglomeration, as well as world
renowned talent and quality of life keep it
among the top two cities of the future
• London based companies’ability to raise VC
capital also provides resilience for the future,
with the forth highest of any city in 2020

Trade survey finds 74 percent of British firms hit by delays with EU
markets as a result of Brexit
Two months after the UK left the EU, research from the manufacturing
trade group Make UK has shown that 74 percent of firms in a survey of
more than 200 leading industrial companies are facing delays with EU
imports and exports. (Source: Guardian, link)
8 percent of UK businesses are now ‘Brexit Regretters’ who voted
leave but now wish they had voted remain
A survey by BDA BDRC in Feb 2021 shows that 49 percent of UK
businesses voted to leave the EU; within this, 41 percent are still happy
with their decision but 8 percent now with they had voted remain. ‘Brexit
Regretters’ have discovered that Brexit is having a marked impact on their
business and that the outcome is not positive. ‘Brexit Regretters’ are more
likely to be larger businesses, where there was always greater scope for
Brexit to introduce added cost or complexity. (Source: BVA BDRC, link)
Amsterdam displaced London as Europe’s biggest share trading
centre in January
Data from mid-February showed the Dutch capital had displaced London
as Europe’s biggest share trading centre in January, grabbing a fifth of the
40 billion euros-a-day business, up from below a tenth of trading pre-
Brexit. Amsterdam has also overtaken London to become Europe’s
number one corporate listing venue so far this year, and the leader in
euro-denominated interest-rate swaps, a market estimated to be worth
about $135 trillion in 2020. (Source: Reuters, link)
Impact of Brexit starting
to show among business
and in levels of trading
Implications:
• With 8 percent of business falling into the
group of those that voted leave, but now
wish they voted remain, there is evidence
that Brexit has not lived up to what it
promised
• Finance is showing signs of impact, with
Amsterdam capturing share trading volumes
from London
• Further to this, delays in EU imports and
exports are affecting the manufacturing
industry

Could the new "Zoom Towns” change the nature of talent clusters?
Alpha cities, such as New York, London, Dubai, Beijing, Bengaluru or
Singapore, benefit from an endless inflow of highly skilled talent &
companies seeking to employ them. The pandemic and the resulting work
from home (WFH) culture drove an exodus of the "laptop class”, this offers
local governments an opportunity to rethink how they attract businesses
and change the narrative around alpha-centric talent clusters. (Source:
Wavteq, link)
London ranked least vulnerable city in UK post-coronavirus recovery
In a report from KPMG, London was ranked as the least affected in a
measure looking at post-coronavirus vulnerability of town and city centres
in England. The measure consisted of three metrics: percentage of jobs
expected to continue being done from home post-coronavirus; impact of
accelerated online adoption on local high street; and strength of local
cultural offering. London’s top place was driven by the strong cultural
offering, countering a higher exposure to working from home. London was
also an exception in that is has multiple centres, and the cultural offering
of one area (e.g., West End) may not counter working from home impact
in another (e.g., Canary Wharf). (Source: KPMG, link)
19 percent of workers remain on furlough, 6 percent of business sites
in London are temporarily or permanently closed
The proportion of businesses' workforce on furlough leave remains broadly
stable at 19 percent, which equates to approx. 6.2 million employees, in Feb
2021. London had the highest percentage of sites temporarily or
permanently closed, both at 6 percent, around 24,000. Five industries have
more than 50 percent of currently trading businesses experiencing a
decrease in turnover compared with what is expected for this time of year.
(Source: ONS, link)
London predicted to show
resilience in recovery,
although may have
competition from some
UK towns
Implications:
• London’s cultural offering and unique position
as only megacity in the UK means that the city
should prove resilient post-pandemic; however,
areas of London will see a different impact
• London has highest percentage of businesses
currently closed, due to skew towards
hospitality, which is predicted to bounce back
• Rise of home-working may spur competition
from regional towns with strong cultural offering

The future of commerce will be shaped by young consumers, physical
retail will transform, and independent shops gain popularity
Data from one million merchants on Shopify, and survey insights from
global consumers show five key trends in commerce: Young consumers will
change the business landscape, and hesitant to return to in-store shopping;
physical retail as we know it will transform, giving local businesses new
advantages; Consumer intentions lean toward supporting independent
businesses; consumers will vote with their wallets, support local businesses
on principle; Modern financial solutions will disrupt business and consumer
banking, finance, and lending. (Source: Shopify, link)
The ‘Golden Triangle’ holds a unique place in the world of technology
and innovation – a deep dive into global healthtech ecosystems
The outbreak of the coronavirus has shone a light on innovation happening
at pace in healthtech hubs all over the world. Hubs such as Cambridge
exemplifies an established ecosystem that is actively contributing to the
global pandemic efforts. In April 2020, the University of Cambridge joined
forces with AstraZeneca and GSK to create the Cambridge Testing Centre
— a state-of-the-art coronavirus testing facility. This comes out of the
Cambridge Science Park, built in the 1970s and home to 130 businesses,
including AstraZeneca, which co-developed a vaccine with Oxford
University. (Source: fDi Intelligence link)
Thames Freeport opens for business hours after budget announcement
Thames Freeport, a Forth Ports joint venture, said that it is ‘open for
business’, just hours after the UK Government announced that it would be
one of eight new freeports in England. It is a digitally linked economic zone
connecting Ford's Dagenham engine plant, the global ports at London
Gateway and Tilbury, and many local communities. (Source: Insider, link)
Coronavirus has
impacted industries in
different ways,
accelerating existing
trends
Implications:
• London and the ‘Golden Triangle’has
received global exposure for its role in
combatting the Coronavirus pandemic
• Physical retail will transformpost-pandemic,
with implications for the CAZ and high streets
in London, adapting to changing consumer
habits will be key to resilience

Business tourism

Restriction are likely to continue to challenges events
These are likely to impact the delegate experience as well as financial
risks such as insurance. (Source: mia, link)
Event planners are feeling optimistic
Currently virtual events dominate but hybrid events are being planned by
29percent of planners with 40 percent intending to plan one in the future.
The vaccine roll-out is bringing optimism with event professionals.
70percent of planners expect to hold their next event in-person this year.
(Source: Meetings & Incentive Travel, link)
Full recovery for business meetings and events is likely by 2023
It is anticipated for business meetings and events budgets to get to the
pre-coronavirus levels the industry will have to wait till 2023. (Source: mia,
link)
Optimism is growing for
business tourism
• Virtual events lead but there is a growing
expectation that in-person events will be returning
this year in some capacity
• Pharmaceuticals, education and the financial
sector are the most active in planning events
Some sectors are likely to bounce back sooner
According to research published by mia the enquiries that event agents
are receiving are predominantly being made by those in the
pharmaceutical and education and financial sector. Conferences and
forums, training events, corporate events, and teambuilding lead the way
in terms of the type of events that are garnering the most interest.
(Source: mia, link)

Leisure tourism

Domestic travel sentiment improves
With the UK’s third lockdown coming closer to its end, sentiment is
improving for domestic trips. 37 percent of UK adults plan on taking an
overnight UK trip between July and September. However, 23 percent do
not intend to taking any UK trips this year. This intent is not necessarily
leading to new bookings as consumers take a ‘wait and see’ approach to
lockdown easing. Among those taking a trip in June or earlier, only 30
percent have booked their trip. (Source: VisitEngland)
Experts weigh up options for international travel
UK consumers are being warned to delay booking international holidays,
as scientific advisors and policy makers consider the way forward for
reopening international travel. The Global Travel Taskforce is set to report
recommendations for international travel on April 12th, with May 17th the
earliest possible reopening date. However, a third wave in Europe and the
threat of virus mutations may delay reopening regardless of the UK’s
vaccine rollout progress. (Source: Financial Times, link)
Countries work towards vaccine passport plans
Away from the UK many other countries are considering how to resume
travel among vaccinated groups. The EU is planning a digital green
certificate to reopen travel (Source: CNN, link), meanwhile Chinese
authorities have updated health tracking apps with passport vaccine
features (Source: JingTravel, link). Heathrow Airport has been a trial site
for IATA’s Travel Pass app (Source: IATA, link). While tracking platforms
are an important first step, countries still need to agree on standards with
each other to safely reopen travel.
There is uncertainty over
the roadmap for the
reopening of
international travel
• Recommendations for international travel will be
published next month, however there is likely to
be a nuanced approach depending on the
country’s control of the pandemic
• Domestic travel is more likely at the moment

But some anti-COVID measures will remain
Slow global vaccine rollout means that COVID measures exist beyond
2021. Global vaccine allocation has been uneven. The global vaccination
effort could take until 2023 to be completed according to The Economist.
(Source: Statista, link)
Domestic tourism spend is going to be higher than international
inbound in 2021
VisitBritain’s latest forecast London show that domestic tourism spend will
be 63 percent of spend levels seen in 2019 whilst International visitors will
be lower, forecast to be 23 percent of the 2019 figure. (Source:
VisitBritain)
Travel will be triggered by mostly health and monetary reasons
Internationally the availability of the vaccines is the top driver for
international travel in the next 12 months, followed by a significant
decrease in coronavirus cases at a destination, a money-back guarantee
should they wish to cancel their trip, and removal of quarantine policies in
the destination country. (Source: VisitBritain, link)
Domestic tourism spend is
anticipated to rebound
quicker than international
spend
• The availability of the vaccine, the level of control
of the pandemic in market and the quarantine
policies in destination alongside money back
guarantees are what will mobile people to travel
• However we will need to be realistic that full global
vaccination could take till 2023

This month has seen
an increase in UK
consumer
confidence in
planning leisure
travel
24%
13%
13%
21%
21%
16%
11%
17%
11%
11%
14%
15%
13%
9%
Hotel
Car rental
Domestic
flight
Private
accomodation
Rail
International
flight
Cruise
Planning to travel for leisure in the next three months
March
February
From February to March
there is an increased
confidence in planning a
leisure trip
(Source: Deliotte, link)

Younger demographic
69 percent of city intenders are
families or pre-nesters. 66 percent
are in middle-class demographics
(ABC1)
More comfortable with activities
Half of city intenders have less
concerns with visiting a shopping
centre, restaurant or public
transport. This is still a higher level
of comfort than other trip intenders
Most have seen income reduced
59 percent of city intenders have
faced either furlough, reduced income
or redundancy. 13 percent of
intenders find themselves better off
Most likely to travel with a partner
City intenders are most likely to travel
with a partner (42 percent), and 30
percent expect to travel with children.
Trips with friends are more common
for city attenders (30 percent)
Spring City Intenders
(Source: VisitEngland, link)

London tops English regions
UK intenders are most interested
in visiting London over other
English regions, although South
and Eastern regions are popular,
as is the North West
Nature is a top activity even for
London intenders
Outdoor nature activities rank sixth
for London intenders, behind
typical London strengths (history,
sightseeing and culture)
Intention higher among under-35s
London and the UK are more popular
destinations for younger age cohorts
Most comfortable staying in hotels
London intenders are particularly
positive to hotel chains, while
boutique hotels and B&Bs rank as the
second and third most popular
property types
International London Intenders
(Source: VisitBritain, link)

Students

Growth in international students driven by non-EU countries
The number of students in London HEIs from EU countries was 38,115 in
2019/20, a decrease of 0.9 percent y-o-y. Students from non-EU countries
totalled 97,375 an increase of 12.5percent compared to last year. Growth
has been driven by China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), which
remained the top international student market for London, with a 16.7
percent increase y-o-y, meaning in the past five years, numbers have risen
by 84.4 percent, as well as from newly second spot India. (Source: HESA)
International student growth outpaces domestic growth
In 2019/20, a total of 386,505 students were following a higher education
(HE) programme of study in a London higher education institution (HEI).
This represents an increase of 2.4 percent year-on-year (y-o-y). There
were 135,490 international students (Non-UK students) studying in
London’s HEIs in 2019/20, an 8.4 percent increase compared to the last
academic year and the highest level on record. (Source: HESA)
Increase in international
students for school year
2019/20 driven by non-EU
students
• New student data shows continued shift
incoming internationalstudents to London
from EU to non-EU countries
• Majority of increase is driven by the two
largest markets, China and India
Record year for Indian students in London after almost doubling y-o-y
The United States dropped to the 3rd largest market, after a decline of 2.9
percent, with India replacing it for the 2nd place spot, after seeing the
largest growth out of all markets, with 87 percent growth y-o-y. This
continues the trend of strong growth for India, after 6 years of decline up
until 2016/17, where Indian student numbers were almost 1/3 of their current
levels. (Source: HESA)

International Students in London - Top 20 Source Countries
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18* 2018/19* 2019/20*
1 China 16,240 China 17,795 China 21,305 China 25,650 China 29,940
2 United States 6,465 United States 6,550 United States 7,060 United States 7,460 India 13,435
3 Italy 5,190 Italy 5,725 Italy 5,695 India 7,185 United States 7,245
4 India 4,705 India 4,545 India 5,335 Italy 5,625 Italy 5,465
5 France 4,025 France 4,255 France 4,475 France 4,650 France 4,720
6 Germany 3,775 Germany 3,855 Hong Kong 3,985 Hong Kong 4,015 Hong Kong 4,035
7 Hong Kong 3,670 Hong Kong 3,775 Germany 3,825 Germany 4,000 Germany 3,815
8 Malaysia 3,235 Malaysia 3,155 Malaysia 2,990 Malaysia 2,910 Spain 2,965
9 Greece 2,765 Singapore 2,780 Singapore 2,815 Spain 2,890 Malaysia 2,815
10 Singapore 2,755 Greece 2,670 Spain 2,670 Singapore 2,680 Singapore 2,680
11 South Korea 2,505 Spain 2,555 Greece 2,625 Greece 2,650 South Korea 2,560
12 Spain 2,355 South Korea 2,405 South Korea 2,515 South Korea 2,515 Greece 2,505
13 Nigeria 2,010 Romania 2,105 Romania 2,245 Romania 2,310 Poland 2,400
14 Romania 1,855 Poland 2,020 Poland 2,140 Poland 2,270 Romania 2,345
15 Russia 1,850 Russia 1,825 Canada 1,765 Canada 1,885 Canada 1,845
16 Poland 1,840 Thailand 1,660 Thailand 1,645 Pakistan 1,745 Pakistan 1,845
17 Norway 1,755 Canada 1,650 Russia 1,640 Portugal 1,615 Portugal 1,705
18 Canada 1,740 Pakistan 1,540 Pakistan 1,550 Thailand 1,605 Thailand 1,640
19 Ireland 1,635 Ireland 1,515 Switzerland 1,505 Russia 1,500 Switzerland 1,535
20 Thailand 1,605 Nigeria 1,515 Portugal 1,435 Switzerland 1,495 Saudi Arabia 1,500
SUM 71,975 73,895 79,220 86,655 96,995
TOTAL 110,815 112,205 116,530 125,035 135,490
• The top 20 countries supplied 71.6 percent of total international students in London in 2018-19, compared to 69 percent the previous year and 65 percent five years ago.
Additionally, more countries saw numbers increase than last year, with 13 of the top 20 countries having numbers rise.
• China (excludes Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) remained the top international student market for London, with a 16.7 percent increase y-o-y. In the past five years, numbers have
risen by 84.4 percent.
• The United States dropped to the 3rd largest market, with India replacing it in 2nd place spot, after seeing the largest growth out of all markets, with 87 percent growth y-o-y. This
continues the trend of strong growth for India.
• Non-EU countries in the top 20 saw a big increase in numbers, largely driven by growth in the Chinese and Indian market, with a 14.5 percent increase y-o-y, meanwhile, EU
countries saw an overall decrease in students of 0.34percent y-o-y.
*Excludes London South Bank University from numbers
Source: HESA Student Record 2019/20. Please note figures are
rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 for Data Protection.

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London & Partners Insight Summary Report #10

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