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Chancen & risiko-managmentment workshop apr-2012
1. DSIM Networking Anlass
“Chancen- und Risiko-Management” mit
Workshop
Di 8. März 2012 18:00- ca. 20:30
EMA house, Nordstrasse 1 - Zürich
2. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
Event-Durchführung mit freundlicher Unterstützung von THARYS
Agenda
• Begrüssung, Einführung: Risk and Opportunity Management
ein pragmatischer Lösungs-Ansatz - Joe A. Waser, DSIM Moderator
• THARYS Workshop: Methode und Software
Fallstudie – Moderation & technische Leitung: Peter E. Klauser u. Beat Weber, THARYS
• Fragen und Antworten, Erfahrungsaustausch - J. Waser, Beat Weber, P. Klauser
• Apéro Riche, Networking
Event Logistik
3. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
??
Compliance Operating Strategic
Opportunity/ Performance
& Prevention Initiatives
Gain
“In pursuit of the upside”
Uncertainty /
Variance
Hazard / Loss
8. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
What your company/firm wants/needs …
Your Company, your Firm needs a/o wants to:
• keep communication channels, concerning chances and risks, open and transparent
• encompass all chances and risks linked with it’s business activities OR
663b; OR 728 a&b
• to accept explicitly calculated risks consciously within predefined parameters
(rather than will/can avoid risk all together)
• secure sustainable success
• build a/o leverage competitive advantages
by controlling & managing risks & chances
9. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
What your company/firm wants/needs …
By assessing and handling chances and risks in a controlled
manner we voluntarily build and
use a radar for the future
Recognize unplanned events,
which will have substantial negative/positive impact on corporate goals
keep oversight for opportunities to recognize changes faster and
act more proactive
spot weaknesses (with substantial negative impact potential)
in current processes and practices
permanent support for action plans that take
into account sustainable success and positive progress
via definition and implementation of measures to reduce risk
and to seize chances/opportunities = action plan
10. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
From a commonly accepted base to … a pragmatic RM
supported byand resultant investments concentrate on the top risks and opportunities
Action plans
Summary presentation THARYS approach and newest capabilities Data base tool
Best Practice Experience
10
11. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
From a commonly accepted base to … a pragmatic RM
supported by
Risk Assessment >>> Risk Response
Reading the charts in a generic tactical manner – driving action plans
Which are the most reasonable/effective measures to reduce risk? Data base tool
Cost/benefit evaluations
- Individually for each risk - Taking into account risk acceptability/tolerance
Best Practice Experience
Risiko Chance
katastrophal
6 38 113 230 Priorität auf 680
380 530
exorbitant
Risk Response Strategies
500 - 1000 CHF* 500 - 1000 CHF*
kritisch
operativen sehr gross
5 19 56 110 190 260 340
250 - 500 CHF Ab Massnahmen 250 - 500 CHF
wesentlich
4 8,75
- 26 un 50 90 120 160
gross
Risk Avoidance Risk Reduction
dV
Auswirkung
100 - 250 CHF 100 - 250 CHF
Ak
moderat
3 z
3,75e
pti 11 23 ers 38 53 68
mittel
50 - 100 CHF od
er ere ich 50 - 100 CHF
Risk Transfer Risk Acceptance
klein
2 „w 5,63 n 11
1,88 ern
19 26 34
klein
25 - 50 CHF en 25 - 50 CHF
ig
1,88 tu
unbedeutend unbedeutend
1 0,63
n“3,75 6,25 8,75 11
0 - 25 CHF 0 - 25 CHF
* Millionen 1 2 3 4 5 6
Bewertungszeitraum Bestehende Massnahmen
wahrscheinlich
unwahrscheinlich
beinahe sicher
3 Jahre 4 Sehr gute und effiziente Massnahmen
80% - 100%
20% - 40%
60% - 80%
10% - 20%
40% - 60%
0% - 10%
möglich
sicher
selten
3 Gute Massnahmen
Wert = EBIT in CHF 2 Wenig effiziente Massnahmen
1 Keinerlei Massnahmen
Wahrscheinlichkeit
11
12. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
Post“ scriptum controversy between quantification based on observations of the past and subjective degrees
• ”Over time, the
of belief has taken on a deeper significance. The mathematically driven apparatus of modern risk management
contains the seed of a dehumaning and self-destructing technology.
• Nobel Laureate Kenneth Arrow warned “our knowledge of the way things work, in society or in nature, comes trailing
clouds of vagueness. Vast ills have followed a belief in certainty”
• In the process of breaking free from the past we may have become slaves of a new religion, a creed that is just as
implacable, confining and arbitrary as the old.
• Our lives teem with numbers, but we sometimes forget that numbers are only tools. They have no
souls: they may indeed become fetishes. Many of our most critical decisions are made by
computers, contraptions (devices) that devour numbers like voracious monsters and insist on being nourished
with ever-greater quantities of digits to crunch, digest ,and spew back
• To judge the extent to which today’s methods of dealing with risk are either a
benefit or a threat, we must know the whole story, from it very beginnings - we
must know why people of past times did (or did not) tame risk - how they
approached the task - what modes of thinking and language emerged from their
experience – and how their activities interacted with other events (large and small),
to change the course of culture.
• Such a perspective will bring us to a deeper understanding of where we stand, and where we
are heading. “pg 7”
• The word “risk” derives from risicare which means “to dare”. In this sense, risk is a choice rather than a fate. The
actions we dare to take, which depend on how free we are to make choices, are what the story of risk is all about.
And the story means to define what it means to be a human being. “pg 7”
14. “Chancen- und Risiko-Management Workshop” - DSIM Networking Anlass
History
But the serious study of risk began during the Renaissance All the tools we use today in risk management
, when people broke loose from the constraints of the past and in the analysis of decisions and choice
The modern conception of
Arabic numbering system
that reached the West seven to
eight hundred years ago.
risk is rooted in the Hindu-
and subjected long-held beliefs to open challenge. - from the strict rationality of game theory to
By 1654 (when the Renaissance was in full flower) the challenges of chaos theory -
Chevalier de Méré challenged famed French Mathematician Blaise Pascal stem from the developments that took place
…”how to divide the stakes of an unfinished game of chance between 1654 and 1760
between 2 players when one of them is ahead”. - with only two exceptions
Collaboration with Pierre de Fermat was intellectual dynamite
and led to the discovery of the theory of probability
– the mathematical heart of the concept of risk.
In 1875, Francis Galton
(amateur mathematician; Charles Darwin’s first Cousin)
~1700 Jacob Bernoulli (Swiss scientist and mathematician) discovered regression to the mean
developed The Law of Large Numbers – Whenever we make any decision
1730, Abraham de Moivre suggested the structure of normal distribution based on the expectation that
– also known as the bell curve- matters will return to “normal”
8 years later Daniel Bernoulli (nephew of Jacob) first defined the we are employing the notion
systematic process by which most people make choices (even more important, he of regression to the mean
propounded the idea that the satisfaction resulting from any small increase in wealth
“will be inversely proportionate to the quantity of good previously possessed” In 1952, Nobel Laureate
…statement stood as the dominant paradigm of rational behaviour for the next 250 years Harry Markowitz,
~1750 English minister Thomas Bayes made a striking advance in statistics by demonstrated mathematically
demonstrating how to make better-informed decisions by mathematically blending why putting all eggs in one basket
new information into old - His theorem focuses on the frequent occasions when we an unacceptable risky strategy
is
and why diversification is the neares
have sound intuitive judgement about the probability of some event and want to
understand how to alter those judgments as actual events unfold a manager/investor
ever can come to a free lunch.
