Here’s September 2014’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®
Boston Real Estate Market Trends
While closed sales were down, low interest rates and moderating prices continued to keep buyer interest high in September. Individual neighborhoods and markets across the state saw improved inventory numbers in September. With fall in full swing, new listings added to the market went up as market conditions remained attractive for sellers.
• September single-family home sales – Down 3.3% over last year.
• September Single-family median prices were Flat 1.4% at $325,000
• September condo sales Down 5.1% and median prices Down 0.3% ($305,000)
• Inventory in September Down 7.0% to 23,355 and Condominiums Down 22.3% to 5,336
• SF listings added to the market in September Up 3.9% over last year. (7,295 from 7,024 in 2013)
• Condo listings added to the market Down 3.5% over last year. (2,466 from 2,555 in 2013)
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September 2014 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
1. Monthly Indicators
A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
September 2014 Quick Facts
- 8.2%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Single-Family Only
Markets across the nation seem to be back on the recovery track after a brief
pause. One of the more encouraging aspects of this renewed recovery is that
new construction of single-family homes reached six-year highs in August,
according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Consumers are also finding more
listings in their search results than they have in years. Inventory is rising in many
neighborhoods as higher prices have motivated more sellers to list.
- 9.0%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Condominium Only
- 8.6%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
All Properties
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
New Listings in the Greater Boston region were up 3.1 percent for detached
homes but decreased 5.1 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased
8.2 percent for detached homes and 9.0 percent for condominiums.
The Median Sales Price was down 2.5 percent to $490,000 for single-family
properties but increased 4.9 percent to $430,000 for condominiums. Months
Supply of Inventory increased 5.9 percent for single-family units but was down
18.1 percent for townhouse-condo units.
The departure of investors from the scene should benefit first-time homebuyers,
but student debt and sluggish wage growth have slowed that transition. The
economy is growing, but it's growing at a slower pace than desired. Thankfully,
inflation remains tame, partly enabling the Federal Reserve to keep rates low for
longer, contrary to the forecasts of most economists.
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
Pending Sales
New Listings
City of Boston Overview
Click on desired metric to jump to that page.
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of October 16, 2014. All data from MLS Property
Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
2. Single-Family Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2013 Sep-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
Closed Sales 919 844 - 8.2% 8,820 8,223 - 6.8%
Median Sales Price
$490,000 - 2.5% $501,200
+ 1.3% 88 83 - 6.6%
- 2.7% -- --
--
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
$502,500 + 5.7%
88 89
3,021 2,939
$530,000
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
3.5 + 5.9% -- -- --
57 69
63
97.2% 97.9%
- 8.1%
+ 0.8%
9 9 9 9 Months Supply of Inventory 3.3
Days on Market Until Sale
Percent of Original
List Price Received
97.3%
+ 13.4%
- 0.7%
65
96.6%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Pending Sales 832 922 + 10.8% 9,303 8,821 - 5.2%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
New Listings 1,453 1,498 + 3.1% 12,272 12,371 + 0.8%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
3. Condominium Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2013 Sep-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
- 6.5%
Closed Sales 887 807 - 9.0% 8,113 7,588
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Median Sales Price $410,000 $430,000 + 4.9% $403,000 $430,000 + 6.7%
- 7.4%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Housing Affordability Index 108 102 - 5.8% 110 102
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,990 1,483 - 25.5% -- -- --
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
--
9 9 9 9 Months Supply of Inventory 2.2 1.8 - 18.1% -- --
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Days on Market Until Sale 49 51 + 4.1% 54 54 + 0.0%
+ 0.8%
Percent of Original
List Price Received
99.0% 99.2% + 0.2% 99.0% 99.8%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Pending Sales 781 834 + 6.8% 8,619 8,067 - 6.4%
- 7.7%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
New Listings 1,253 1,189 - 5.1% 10,728 9,905
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
4. Closed Sales
A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 856 + 10.6% 764 + 7.5%
Nov-2013 791 - 11.4% 711 - 5.8%
Dec-2013 900 + 10.6% 790 + 3.1%
Jan-2014 570 - 4.5% 526 + 2.3%
Feb-2014 408 - 4.0% 422 - 3.0%
Mar-2014 547 - 11.2% 647 + 3.0%
Apr-2014 677 - 11.7% 818 + 1.6%
May-2014 994 - 9.4% 938 - 12.2%
Jun-2014 1,420 - 4.1% 1,212 - 2.8%
Jul-2014 1,477 - 0.8% 1,139 - 9.0%
Aug-2014 1,286 - 10.0% 1,079 - 15.5%
Sep-2014 844 - 8.2% 807 - 9.0%
919 887
844
751 747
807
September
2013 2014 2013 2014
8,140
7,406
8,820
8,223 8,113
7,588
Year to Date
2012 2012 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Total 10,770 - 4.7% 9,853 - 4.8%
-8.2% +8.4% -6.8% +9.5% -6.5%
+22.4% +18.7% -9.0%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
5. Median Sales Price
Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 $474,000 + 9.0% $416,750 + 13.8%
Nov-2013 $480,000 + 6.7% $410,500 + 8.0%
Dec-2013 $500,000 + 6.4% $420,400 + 10.5%
Jan-2014 $488,288 + 13.6% $420,500 + 13.9%
Feb-2014 $476,950 + 10.9% $400,018 + 14.3%
Mar-2014 $500,000 + 16.3% $435,000 + 7.4%
Apr-2014 $524,500 + 9.3% $420,000 + 8.4%
May-2014 $535,500 + 7.1% $434,500 + 6.0%
Jun-2014 $576,000 + 5.7% $450,000 + 7.1%
Jul-2014 $550,900 + 3.4% $430,000 + 7.4%
Aug-2014 $539,900 + 3.8% $429,931 + 3.3%
Sep-2014 $490,000 - 2.5% $430,000 + 4.9%
$435,000
$375,000
$502,500
$410,000
$490,000
$430,000
September
2013 2014 2013 2014
$465,000
$379,900
$501,200
$403,000
$530,000
$430,000
Year to Date
2012 2012 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Median $520,750 + 6.3% $427,500 + 8.2%
-2.5% +7.8% +5.7% +6.1% +6.7%
+15.5% +9.3% +4.9%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
$600,000
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
6. Housing Affordability Index
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary
to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
Oct-2013 94 - 13.4% 106 - 17.0%
Nov-2013 98 - 6.9% 114 - 8.1%
Dec-2013 90 - 11.6% 107 - 14.8%
Jan-2014 87 - 22.9% 101 - 23.1%
Feb-2014 90 - 18.1% 108 - 20.5%
Mar-2014 86 - 21.5% 99 - 15.0%
Apr-2014 82 - 18.3% 102 - 17.6%
May-2014 82 - 11.3% 102 - 10.4%
Jun-2014 76 - 5.1% 98 - 6.4%
Jul-2014 80 - 3.8% 102 - 7.3%
Aug-2014 82 - 2.5% 103 - 2.1%
Sep-2014 89 + 1.3% 102 - 5.8%
109
126
88
108
89
102
September
102
124
88
110
83
102
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Average 86 -11.2% 104 -12.4%
+1.3% -12.9% -6.6% -11.5% -7.4%
-18.8% -14.2% -5.8%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
7. Inventory of Homes for Sale
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 2,921 - 16.0% 1,923 - 17.3%
Nov-2013 2,479 - 17.0% 1,621 - 19.3%
Dec-2013 1,926 - 16.2% 1,307 - 14.5%
Jan-2014 1,912 - 16.7% 1,312 - 17.3%
Feb-2014 2,049 - 14.7% 1,390 - 18.4%
Mar-2014 2,250 - 5.5% 1,471 - 15.4%
Apr-2014 2,689 - 3.2% 1,653 - 16.7%
May-2014 3,117 + 2.2% 1,805 - 13.3%
Jun-2014 3,138 + 3.1% 1,741 - 14.7%
Jul-2014 3,014 + 4.6% 1,635 - 13.0%
Aug-2014 2,818 + 1.6% 1,414 - 20.1%
Sep-2014 2,939 - 2.7% 1,483 - 25.5%
3,766
2,530
3,021
1,990
2,939
1,483
September
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Average 2,604 - 6.4% 1,563 - 17.2%
-19.8% -2.7% -21.3% -25.5%
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
8. Months Supply of Inventory
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 3.4 - 24.1% 2.5 - 23.1%
Nov-2013 3.1 - 6.3% 2.3 - 14.3%
Dec-2013 2.1 - 24.2% 1.7 - 17.1%
Jan-2014 3.4 - 12.7% 2.5 - 19.2%
Feb-2014 5.0 - 11.2% 3.3 - 15.9%
Mar-2014 4.1 + 6.5% 2.3 - 17.9%
Apr-2014 4.0 + 9.7% 2.0 - 18.0%
May-2014 3.1 + 12.8% 1.9 - 1.3%
Jun-2014 2.2 + 7.5% 1.4 - 12.3%
Jul-2014 2.0 + 5.5% 1.4 - 4.4%
Aug-2014 2.2 + 12.9% 1.3 - 5.5%
Sep-2014 3.5 + 5.9% 1.8 - 18.1%
5.0
3.3 3.4
2.2
3.5
1.8
September
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Average 2.8 - 9.5% 1.8 - 20.6%
-34.4% +5.9% -33.8% -18.1%
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
9. Days on Market Until Sale
Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 59 - 33.7% 47 - 43.9%
Nov-2013 65 - 27.2% 51 - 33.6%
Dec-2013 70 - 28.0% 55 - 34.1%
Jan-2014 79 - 27.4% 63 - 28.9%
Feb-2014 89 - 19.8% 78 - 17.9%
Mar-2014 83 - 22.9% 65 - 8.4%
Apr-2014 81 - 12.3% 57 - 10.7%
May-2014 58 - 22.4% 49 - 5.0%
Jun-2014 54 - 3.8% 45 + 4.3%
Jul-2014 52 + 11.1% 49 + 28.1%
Aug-2014 55 + 14.5% 50 + 24.7%
Sep-2014 65 + 13.4% 51 + 4.1%
89
85
57
49
65
51
September
100
88
69
54
63
54
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Total 63 - 13.9% 51 - 9.7%
+13.4% -31.2% -8.1% -39.2% +0.0%
-36.1% -42.0% +4.1%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
10. Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month,
not accounting for seller concessions.
Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1%
Nov-2013 96.3% + 1.7% 98.9% + 2.8%
Dec-2013 95.9% + 1.8% 98.0% + 1.9%
Jan-2014 95.8% + 2.1% 97.4% + 1.6%
Feb-2014 96.1% + 2.0% 98.1% + 1.5%
Mar-2014 97.0% + 1.9% 98.8% + 1.3%
Apr-2014 98.0% + 1.4% 99.7% + 0.9%
May-2014 98.7% + 0.9% 100.9% + 1.4%
Jun-2014 99.2% + 0.7% 100.8% + 1.2%
Jul-2014 98.5% + 0.5% 100.1% + 0.2%
Aug-2014 98.1% + 0.2% 100.1% + 0.5%
Sep-2014 96.6% - 0.7% 99.2% + 0.2%
September
94.5% 97.3% 96.4% 96.6% 99.0% 99.2%
Year to Date
94.4% 97.2% 95.7% 97.9% 99.0% 99.8%
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Average 97.6% + 1.0% 99.5% + 1.2%
-0.7% +3.0% +0.8% +3.4% +0.8%
+3.0% +2.6% +0.2%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
105%
103%
101%
99%
97%
95%
93%
91%
89%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
11. Pending Sales
A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 934 + 7.6% 813 + 2.9%
Nov-2013 693 + 1.9% 629 + 6.3%
Dec-2013 466 - 7.0% 414 - 9.8%
Jan-2014 500 - 19.6% 597 - 9.0%
Feb-2014 647 - 7.6% 711 - 0.1%
Mar-2014 1,043 - 10.2% 998 - 14.1%
Apr-2014 1,244 - 9.7% 1,167 - 7.8%
May-2014 1,379 - 6.4% 1,083 - 13.8%
Jun-2014 1,290 + 0.9% 1,100 + 1.2%
Jul-2014 979 + 0.8% 881 - 7.0%
Aug-2014 817 - 7.8% 696 - 7.4%
Sep-2014 922 + 10.8% 834 + 6.8%
851
732
832
781
922
834
September
8,732
7,948
9,303
8,821 8,619
8,067
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Total 10,914 - 3.9% 9,923 - 5.1%
+10.8% +6.5% -5.2% +8.4% -6.4%
-2.2% +6.7% +6.8%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
12. New Listings
A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Oct-2013 1,220 + 18.9% 1,010 + 17.2%
Nov-2013 650 + 4.3% 553 + 0.2%
Dec-2013 396 + 13.1% 362 + 17.9%
Jan-2014 727 - 16.4% 742 - 17.7%
Feb-2014 926 - 5.9% 890 - 6.3%
Mar-2014 1,449 + 8.0% 1,216 - 9.5%
Apr-2014 1,876 - 6.0% 1,490 - 10.3%
May-2014 2,049 + 3.4% 1,412 - 7.8%
Jun-2014 1,667 + 10.8% 1,250 + 2.1%
Jul-2014 1,191 + 6.9% 995 0.0%
Aug-2014 988 - 4.0% 721 - 16.9%
Sep-2014 1,498 + 3.1% 1,189 - 5.1%
1,369
1,129
1,453
1,253
1,498
1,189
September
12,240
10,484
12,272
10,728
12,371
9,905
Year to Date
2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014
Total 14,637 + 2.6% 11,830 - 5.0%
+3.1% +0.3% +0.8% +2.3% -7.7%
+6.1% +11.0% -5.1%
Single-Family Condominium
Single-Family Condominium
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014
13. City of Boston – Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2013 Sep-2014 + / – YTD 2013 YTD 2014 + / –
- 7.8%
Closed Sales 509 420 - 17.5% 4,442 4,097
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Median Sales Price $436,000 $456,760 + 4.8% $433,000 $469,699 + 8.5%
- 6.6%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Housing Affordability Index 88 89 + 1.3% 88 83
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,080 831 - 23.1% -- -- --
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
--
9 9 9 9 Months Supply of Inventory 2.1 2.0 - 6.8% -- --
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Days on Market Until Sale 45 50 + 11.2% 47 49 + 5.0%
+ 0.8%
Percent of Original
List Price Received
98.2% 98.6% + 0.4% 98.8% 99.5%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
Pending Sales 432 448 + 3.7% 4,706 4,349 - 7.6%
- 8.7%
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
New Listings 745 681 - 8.6% 6,000 5,480
9-2011 9-2012 9-2013 9-2014
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13