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Canadian Crude Access into the U.S. Market
Pipeline Infrastructure
Current Footprint of ARB Midstream
2
Permian Gateway Project
Niobrara
Connector
Existing/proposed storage
Terminals
Pipeline capacity
Marketing regions
• Independent, growth-oriented company
providing crude oil, gas liquids, and refined
products midstream and marketing &
logistics solutions in North America
• Developing & acquiring interconnected
assets to a marketing platform
• “Analyze, Identify, Execute”
• Quantitative analytics and deep market
experience guide investment and
development decisions
• Current Projects/Marketing
• Marketing ~20,000 b/d
• DJ Basin terminal: Niobrara Connector
(NiCon)
• Midland Basin (Big Spring) terminal:
Permian Gateway
Organic Projects – Energy Rail Hubs
3
Permian Gateway
3
Niobrara Connector
• Located in Howard County
• 350 acres
• Under construction
• Pipe connection to new
gathering system
• Transloading for crude oil
and drilling materials
• Located in the heart of DJ
• 230 Acres
• Phase I in service late
March
• Transloading for crude oil
(inbound and outbound
service), drilling materials,
aggregates and other
commodities
Observations
• Current western Canadian production is 3.9 million b/d.
• 3.2 million b/d (82% of total production) is exported to the U.S. via
pipeline
• 2.6 million b/d (81%) of all pipe imports into the US flow through the
Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market
• The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is the destination for incremental Canadian heavy
production growth
• PADD 3 has more than doubled consumption of Canadian crude from
January 2014 to January 2016, and is expected to continue to grow
• Currently 233,000 b/d of Canadian supply flows through PADDs 2 and 4 to
PADD 3
• Over the next three years, Canadian production is forecast to grow by 820,000
b/d, and most of those volumes will have to squeeze into PADD 3, flowing
through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market
• Arbs need to widen to make this move work
4
Western Canadian production currently sits at
about 3.9 million bpd
5
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Production&TakeawwayCapacity(bpd)
Western Canada Supply (incl. diluent)
Source: CAPP
Pipe = 2,757
Pipe to EC =
500
WC Refining =
432
Rail/Other = 279
Movements of Canadian Crude Through US
Markets
6
246
313255
2,346
Source: Genscape, COLC, EIA
46,000 b/d flows through PADD 4 to other PADDs, 287,000 b/d flows
through PADD 2 to other PADDs. The flows through PADD 2 will increase
as supply grows
7Source: EIA
Pembina/Neche, ND- 80
Dul/Minn MN - 307
Chicago, IL - 792
Peoria, IL -503
Tulsa, OK -167
Superior, WI - 26
Toledo, OH - 75
336
928
151
422
306
161
28
29
From PADD 4
23
155
17
53
5
16
Denver, CO - 86
Great Falls, MT- 28
Casper, WY - 23
SLC, UT - 3
Sweet Grass, MT- 160
13
57
3
12
148
33
21
165
112
82
187
14
Canadian / US Flow Balance
Western Canadian P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Total
Flows Into 201 2,629 82 301 277 3,490
Stay In 201 2,342 82 255 277 3,157
Flow Out of - 287 - 46 -
*Based on Dec '15 Company Level Imports, Flows = pipe + rail + barge
St Louios, MS - 325
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
BPD
PADD 2
Crude Entering vs Processed
More Canadian crude than ever is flowing
through PADD 2 to GC Markets
8Source: EIA
Over the last 6 months, an
average of 225kbpd of Canadian
crude passes through PADD 2 to
be processed in PADD 3
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
BPD
PADD 3
Canadian Crude (all grades) Entering vs Refined
PADD 3 has more than doubled Canadian crude
consumption from Jan ‘14 to Jan ‘16
9
+2x
PADD 3 processes about 350kbp
of Canadian crude, 220kbpd of
which arrives via Pipeline from
other PADDs
Source: EIA
Regional Crude Production Forecasts Over the
next 2 yrs (Jan ‘16 to Dec ‘18)
10
+820
-128
-213
-273
-6
+35
Source: Genscape, CAPP
Pipelines out of Western Canada will be full, and rail will be required
(and must be priced in) to clear the market during periods over the
next 2-3 years
11
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Production&TakeawwayCapacity(bpd)
Western Canada Supply (incl. diluent) vs Takeaway Capacity
Pipeline
Refinery
Rail
Source: EIA, CAPP, ARB Analytics
Price Spreads – WCS to WCS Cushing, WCS to
WCS Houston
12
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$/bbl
WCS arbs to Cushing and USGC ($/bbl)
WCS - WCS @ Cush WCS - WCS @ Houston
252 276 285 290
211 219 220 305
1,679
1,939
2,095 2,085 2,080
195 283 299 305 305
130 198
348 408 468
Source: EIA, CAPP, Argus
Refined Volumes by PADD
PADD 3 needs to accommodate
500 to 800kbpd of Canadian
production
Canadian Pipeline Market Summary
13
• Current western Canadian production is 3.9 million b/d.
• 3.2 million b/d (82% of total production) is exported to the U.S. via
pipeline
• 2.6 million b/d (81%) of all pipe imports into the US flow through the
Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market
• The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is the destination for incremental Canadian heavy
production growth
• PADD 3 has more than doubled consumption of Canadian crude from
January 2014 to January 2016, and is expected to continue to grow
• Currently 233,000 b/d of Canadian supply flows through PADDs 2 and 4 to
PADD 3
• Over the next three years, Canadian production is forecast to grow by 820,000
b/d, and most of those volumes will have to squeeze into PADD 3, flowing
through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market
• Arbs need to widen to make this move work
Eric Peterson
Market Research and Analytics
eric.peterson@arbmidstream.com
www.arbmidstream.com

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Eric Peterson

  • 1. Canadian Crude Access into the U.S. Market Pipeline Infrastructure
  • 2. Current Footprint of ARB Midstream 2 Permian Gateway Project Niobrara Connector Existing/proposed storage Terminals Pipeline capacity Marketing regions • Independent, growth-oriented company providing crude oil, gas liquids, and refined products midstream and marketing & logistics solutions in North America • Developing & acquiring interconnected assets to a marketing platform • “Analyze, Identify, Execute” • Quantitative analytics and deep market experience guide investment and development decisions • Current Projects/Marketing • Marketing ~20,000 b/d • DJ Basin terminal: Niobrara Connector (NiCon) • Midland Basin (Big Spring) terminal: Permian Gateway
  • 3. Organic Projects – Energy Rail Hubs 3 Permian Gateway 3 Niobrara Connector • Located in Howard County • 350 acres • Under construction • Pipe connection to new gathering system • Transloading for crude oil and drilling materials • Located in the heart of DJ • 230 Acres • Phase I in service late March • Transloading for crude oil (inbound and outbound service), drilling materials, aggregates and other commodities
  • 4. Observations • Current western Canadian production is 3.9 million b/d. • 3.2 million b/d (82% of total production) is exported to the U.S. via pipeline • 2.6 million b/d (81%) of all pipe imports into the US flow through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market • The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is the destination for incremental Canadian heavy production growth • PADD 3 has more than doubled consumption of Canadian crude from January 2014 to January 2016, and is expected to continue to grow • Currently 233,000 b/d of Canadian supply flows through PADDs 2 and 4 to PADD 3 • Over the next three years, Canadian production is forecast to grow by 820,000 b/d, and most of those volumes will have to squeeze into PADD 3, flowing through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market • Arbs need to widen to make this move work 4
  • 5. Western Canadian production currently sits at about 3.9 million bpd 5 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 Production&TakeawwayCapacity(bpd) Western Canada Supply (incl. diluent) Source: CAPP
  • 6. Pipe = 2,757 Pipe to EC = 500 WC Refining = 432 Rail/Other = 279 Movements of Canadian Crude Through US Markets 6 246 313255 2,346 Source: Genscape, COLC, EIA
  • 7. 46,000 b/d flows through PADD 4 to other PADDs, 287,000 b/d flows through PADD 2 to other PADDs. The flows through PADD 2 will increase as supply grows 7Source: EIA Pembina/Neche, ND- 80 Dul/Minn MN - 307 Chicago, IL - 792 Peoria, IL -503 Tulsa, OK -167 Superior, WI - 26 Toledo, OH - 75 336 928 151 422 306 161 28 29 From PADD 4 23 155 17 53 5 16 Denver, CO - 86 Great Falls, MT- 28 Casper, WY - 23 SLC, UT - 3 Sweet Grass, MT- 160 13 57 3 12 148 33 21 165 112 82 187 14 Canadian / US Flow Balance Western Canadian P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Total Flows Into 201 2,629 82 301 277 3,490 Stay In 201 2,342 82 255 277 3,157 Flow Out of - 287 - 46 - *Based on Dec '15 Company Level Imports, Flows = pipe + rail + barge St Louios, MS - 325
  • 8. 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 2,200,000 2,400,000 2,600,000 2,800,000 BPD PADD 2 Crude Entering vs Processed More Canadian crude than ever is flowing through PADD 2 to GC Markets 8Source: EIA Over the last 6 months, an average of 225kbpd of Canadian crude passes through PADD 2 to be processed in PADD 3
  • 9. - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 BPD PADD 3 Canadian Crude (all grades) Entering vs Refined PADD 3 has more than doubled Canadian crude consumption from Jan ‘14 to Jan ‘16 9 +2x PADD 3 processes about 350kbp of Canadian crude, 220kbpd of which arrives via Pipeline from other PADDs Source: EIA
  • 10. Regional Crude Production Forecasts Over the next 2 yrs (Jan ‘16 to Dec ‘18) 10 +820 -128 -213 -273 -6 +35 Source: Genscape, CAPP
  • 11. Pipelines out of Western Canada will be full, and rail will be required (and must be priced in) to clear the market during periods over the next 2-3 years 11 - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 Production&TakeawwayCapacity(bpd) Western Canada Supply (incl. diluent) vs Takeaway Capacity Pipeline Refinery Rail Source: EIA, CAPP, ARB Analytics
  • 12. Price Spreads – WCS to WCS Cushing, WCS to WCS Houston 12 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $/bbl WCS arbs to Cushing and USGC ($/bbl) WCS - WCS @ Cush WCS - WCS @ Houston 252 276 285 290 211 219 220 305 1,679 1,939 2,095 2,085 2,080 195 283 299 305 305 130 198 348 408 468 Source: EIA, CAPP, Argus Refined Volumes by PADD PADD 3 needs to accommodate 500 to 800kbpd of Canadian production
  • 13. Canadian Pipeline Market Summary 13 • Current western Canadian production is 3.9 million b/d. • 3.2 million b/d (82% of total production) is exported to the U.S. via pipeline • 2.6 million b/d (81%) of all pipe imports into the US flow through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market • The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is the destination for incremental Canadian heavy production growth • PADD 3 has more than doubled consumption of Canadian crude from January 2014 to January 2016, and is expected to continue to grow • Currently 233,000 b/d of Canadian supply flows through PADDs 2 and 4 to PADD 3 • Over the next three years, Canadian production is forecast to grow by 820,000 b/d, and most of those volumes will have to squeeze into PADD 3, flowing through the Chicago/Patoka/Flanagan/Wood River market • Arbs need to widen to make this move work
  • 14. Eric Peterson Market Research and Analytics eric.peterson@arbmidstream.com www.arbmidstream.com