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Death Stars and Droids: Security in Zero Gravity
- 1. Death Stars and Droids: Security in Zero Gravity By Emerson Jones, Anna Karditzas, Haddie Hamal, Shynelle Kissi, and Cathaleen Grimann
- 2. Space Policy: Requirements & Implications Global trend: further exploration of space Alternate energy, revenue sources Intersection of science and defense policy Tragedy of the Commons Depletion of resources New policies should borrow from past experiences Weaknesses, strengths of policy dealing with international waters https://www.wired.com/2012/05/opinion-asteroid-mining/
- 3. Space Policy: Why it is Necessary Sustainability Space debris Overcrowding Agricultural Resources Food scarcity solution Security Issues Vulnerable satellites
- 4. Where Are We Now In 2008, Russia and China proposed the Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT) US refused to join, finding several flaws in the treaty’s structure. 2014: submitted new version with many of the same flaws Trump will likely cut government spending, encourage private industry investment in space exploration In the future, the US needs to develop strategies to: Counter the weaponization of space
- 5. International Obligations UN Resolution 1884 (1963) No WMDs in outer space Outer Space Treaty (1967) Art. 1-2: Free access Art. 4: No WMDs in space, the moon is for peaceful purposes only (don’t fight on the moon) Art. 11: Communication (transparency) Art. 12: Visitation rights
- 6. U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (2015) Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness & Entrepreneurship Commercial Remote Sensing Office of Space Commerce Space Resource Commercial Exploration and Utilization National Space Policy: National Security Space Guidelines (2013) Information systems and networks for defense & intel ops Survivability of space capabilities Tech development and industrial capacity Mission assurance Surveillance and intelligence for space situational awareness Detection, warning, and attribution capabilities for space system disturbances U.S. Legislation
- 7. Strengths & Weaknesses of Current 2010 Policy Strengths: ● Acknowledgement of the key role of the private sector ● Provides a basis for a legal framework and frame of thinking Weaknesses: ● Policy is largely based on Cold War era preconceptions ● Policy makers are not considering the long term implications of privatized exploration Ignoring historical lessons: Exploration of the Americas, pursuit of the polar ice caps, and the United States’ push Westward. ● Protection of assets beyond Earth’s orbit has not been explored by current policy
- 8. Current Actors in Space State Actors: Mexico Brazil United States Canada China European Union Germany India Russia Non-State Actors: ● Blue Origin ● Vulcan Aeronautics ● Space X ● Virgin Galactic ● Boeing ● Lockheed Martin ● Deep Space Industries ● Mars One ● Interplanetary Transport Systems ● Sierra Nevada Corporation ● Shelton Energy Company ● Bigelow Aeronautics ● Myasishchev Design Bureau ● etc. Perspective: ● 13 countries have launch capabilities ● 10 private companies in the US alone have launch capability ● Total size of industry world wide: 324 billion dollars ● Since 1989 FAA has issued licenses for 230 launches within the U.S.
- 9. Recommendations Space as a driver of globalization needs to be understood as a combination of: ● Distribution problems ● Cooperation problems ● Enforcement problems In any treaty or institution that the US forms to regulate the weaponization of space, there will be a massive incentive to cheat, even if there is low uncertainty about behavior, preferences, and the state of the world. New technological developments make non- proliferation agreements particularly vital to lower the incentive to produce further offensive capabilities. Russia and China first proposed such a treaty in 2008, but the treaty was inadequate, as was the 2014 revision. It sought to “prevent the placement of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force against outer space objects, but it does not define “weapons,” nor does it prevent against ground-based anti-satellite weapons, nor does it have an enforcement mechanism. Three R’s of enforcement: retaliation, reputation, reciprocity For this reason, an anti-satellite and counter-space non-proliferation treaty must be developed. The treaty will require the formation ttp://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/06/28/article-0- 05F92B8D000005DC-180_306x364.jpg
- 10. To Wrap Up: Changing technology and global demographics Tragedy of the commons - Selfishness and inefficiencies Space is a great opportunity, despite the challenges it presents. Expensive Legal frameworks don’t consider long term implications With the right policies and institutions in place, space exploration and commercialization is doable. Policy to address the various distribution, cooperation, and enforcement problems. ○ Increased innovation ○ Multilateral & international collaborations
- 11. Sources Federal Aviation Administration. "Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2016." Government Report. 2016. Online Report. March 2017. Garcia, Mark. "Space Debris and Human Spacecraft." NASA. NASA, 13 Apr. 2015. Web. 26 Mar. 2017. Heathman, Amelia. "The next greatest security threat facing humanity? Space." WIRED UK. WIRED UK, 20 Mar. 2017. Web. 26 Mar. 2017. Lukaszczyk, Agnieszka. "Space Policy – What is it and Why is it Needed?" Secure World Foundation: Promoting Cooperative Solutions for Space Sustainability. Lecture. National Aeronautics and Space Administration . "The President’s 2018 Budget." Government Report. 2017. Online Document. (R-Colo.), Rep. Doug Lamborn. "Time to get serious about space threats." TheHill. N.p., 04 Feb. 2016. Web. 26 Mar. 2017. Office of the President. "National Space Policy of the United States of America." 28 June 2010. <https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf>. U.S. Congress. "H.R. 2262." U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act. 25 November 2015. <https://www.congress.gov/114/plaws/publ90/PLAW-114publ90.pdf>. United Nations General Assembly. "Outer Space Treaty." Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon & Other Celestial Bodies. 27 January 1967. http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2013/stspace/stspace61_0_html/st_space_61E.pdf. —. "U.N. Resolution 1884." Question of general and complete disarmament. 17 October 1963. <http://www.un-documents.net/a18r1884.htm>. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. "United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space, related General Assembly resolutions and other documents." United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. "United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space, related General Assembly resolutions and other documents." United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2013/stspace/stspace61_0_html/st_space_61E.pdf. Vasani, Harsh. "How China Is Weaponizing Outer Space." The Diplomat. The Diplomat, 22 Jan. 2017. Web. 26 Mar. 2017.
Editor's Notes
- http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/donald-trump-space-war-234829 http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/election2016/trump.html
- Outer Space Treaty (1967) (Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon & Other Celestial Bodies) 1 & 2: Freedom of access, exploration, and scientific investigation in outer space; no sovereignty claims Article 4: No nukes or WMDs in orbit/on celestial bodies/in space period; moon is for peaceful purposes only, no military installations/weapons testing/military maneuvers [further detailed in the Moon Agreement] Article 11: Communicate about outer space activities, keep everyone informed [further detailed in the Registration Convention] Article 12: Outer space facilities are open to other signatories’ representatives, with advance notice
- U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act (2015) Office of Space Commerce Just what it sounds like: to coordinate and develop space policy at home and abroad, promote U.S. space commerce, and promote conditions for the economic growth and technological advancement of the U.S. space commerce industry. Space Resource Commercial Exploration and Utilization There are two parts of this section that actually matter: one says that any U.S. citizen engaged in “commercial recovery” of an asteroid/space resource can own, transport, use, & sell said resource. The other part is that the U.S. doesn’t “assert sovereignty or sovereign or exclusive rights or jurisdiction over, or the ownership of, any celestial body.” National Space Policy [NOV2013] Purpose: “The United States will employ a variety of measures to help assure the use of space for all responsible parties, and, consistent with the inherent right of self defense, deter others from interference and attack, defend our space systems and contribute to the defense of allied space systems, and, if deterrence fails, defeat efforts to attack them.” National Security Space Guidelines: Information systems and networks are essential to support and facilitate defense and intelligence operations during times of peace, crisis, and conflict. Space capabilities need to be both cost-effective and survivable, so that they can function as needed despite lost or degraded capability in the face of a threat, or the absence of other capabilities. Again, this reiterates U.S. commitment to the primacy of U.S. commercial space industry, and maintaining a sufficiently advanced supplier base to support critical national security interests. Maintain space situational awareness to support national and homeland security, civil space agencies, human space flight activities, & commercial and foreign space operations. Interagency and international cooperation for detection, warning, characterization, and attribution of disturbances to space systems. Advanced capabilities to respond to security situation changes.
- Space predominantly has been used, recently, for peaceful and collaborative means, however, privatization of space has been ignored in the equation. Both W. Bush and Obama agree the private efforts in space must not be impeded, example being US Commercial Space Competitiveness Act (2015). The definition and mode of these efforts have yet to be thought about. The strengths of President Obama and Bush’s space policy came out of key phrasing similarly used in both documents “competitive commercial space sector is vital to continued progress in space….[and equally importantly] encouraging and facilitating the growth of a U.S. commercial space sector…” Moreover both policies provide a basic framework of legal thinking for weaponization of space in near earth orbits and outlines the uses of space within near earth. Key word is near earth orbits, whether, we admit it or not much of the cold war still resides in our space policies, and comes from the perspective of state competition. Another weakness is the historical context that policy makers are not considering. Case and point: the exploration of the Americas was carried out via private enterprise. Although the exploration was beneficial to the state, it remained seriously contested for over a 100-years following Christopher Columbus. The current state of the geopolitical environment concerning the poles is still hotly contested. And, lastly in our nation’s history, the example of how the Louisiana Purchase became a factor of US Politics, and spurred military development. This ties into another pitfall in current policy. The fact that there is a lack of mention of anything outside of earth orbit the day is quickly coming that private companies will greatly outpace state run entities. We can synthesize through historical lessons the fact that with exploration will come militarization. This is due to the inevitability of states trying to protect, its citizens--remember Citizen’s United. Further whether state or private enterprise competition is not always peaceful.
- For Perspective I offer this: a total of 13 countries have operational space agencies--operational being defined as launching capabilities of rocket payload systems. Some of these countries may surprise you such as Mexico which sprouted up in 2010, and Iran. Something else of note countries with the means of nuclear capability strongly correlate with countries that have space programs. Of those 13 countries, 3 are capable of having a astronaut programs U.S., Russia, and China. However these are publicly funded programs, and as such run into issues particular to programs that have to duel over public dollars. In the private sector this is not the case private space exploration is now catching up with publicly funded programs exponentially. FAA estimates private space exploration globally is a 324 billion dollar industry. In the US alone there are 10 corporations and companies that plan to or will shortly move outside of earth's orbit. Comparatively to the 3 agency trifecta that makes up the US’s Space power house NASA, NOAA, and the FAA since 1989 (the first private rocket shot into space) FAA has licenced 260 launches by US companies, that number is continuing to grow exponentially as well, as technology becomes cheaper and readily available.
- United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. "United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space, related General Assembly resolutions and other documents." United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2013/stspace/stspace61_0_html/st_space_61E.pdf.