1. Taichung, Taiwan
This Saturday Taiwan will vote for a new president and legislature, and for the first time
the ruling Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, is expected to lose both. Tsai Ing-wen, the
Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, leads the KMT’s Eric Chu by 28.9
percentage points, according to the latest opinion poll by Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Policy
Association.
At the heart of the KMT’s collapse is its failure to appeal to young voters, a problem that
suggests it will continue to struggle in future elections. A survey in December found that
57% of Taiwanese ages 20 to 29 support the DPP, while only 11% support the KMT.
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OPINION COMMENTARY
The Kuomintang Loses Taiwan’s Next
Generation
Young Taiwanese have embraced a new civic nationalism based on pride in the island’s
democracy.
|
Supporters of Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT), attend a rally on Jan. 10 in Taipei. PHOTO: OLIVIA
HARRIS/REUTERS
Jan. 11, 2016 1:06 p.m. ET
By ELLIS LIANG

2. Taiwan’s weakening economy, which is teetering on the edge of recession, has hurt the
KMT’s popularity with all age groups, but it has particularly affected young people
looking for jobs. The average monthly starting salary for recent graduates is $770, some
6% less than 17 years ago.
But the KMT’s biggest liability with young voters is its close relationship with mainland
China. According to a 2015 survey from National Chengchi University, a record 60% of
respondents identify as Taiwanese, rather than Chinese or both. That figure was 18% in
1992.
Even young KMT supporters think of themselves simply as Taiwanese and are troubled
by the party’s insistence that Taiwan is part of China. “I have no feelings for the name
‘Republic of China,’ ” says Tsai Cheng-han, a 20-year-old student who supports the KMT
because it can provide more stable cross-Strait relations. “It wasn’t until I was in fifth
grade that I knew that our country was called the ‘Republic of China.’ ”
The KMT used to command loyalty among families that fled to the island after the
Chinese civil war yet always retained hopes of reunification. But young Taiwanese with
no memories of martial law don’t identify themselves based on family origins as
previous generations did.
Instead, young Taiwanese have embraced a new civic nationalism, says Michael Turton,
a blogger on Taiwanese politics. While cultural ties with China are important, they
consider the island’s democratic system the key to their identity.
Tensions between the administration of the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, and
increasingly nationalistic youth have triggered student demonstrations. In 2014,
university students occupied the legislature for 23 days in what became known as the
Sunflower Movement, successfully blocking a trade agreement that they argued would
hurt the economy and increase political pressure from Beijing. In July, students briefly
occupied the Ministry of Education to protest changes to school textbooks that they
claimed would whitewash the period of dictatorship under the KMT and impose pro-
China ideology.
“The KMT needs to nativize,” Sean, a 21-year-old KMT supporter, tells me by phone.
“My generation will be the main income-generators and participants in society. The
KMT veterans are aging and dwindling.” He declined to give his full name for fear that
DPP supporters would attack him online.
The KMT has tried to create a Taiwan-centric image with mixed results. Mr. Chu, the
KMT’s presidential candidate, is running under the slogan “One Taiwan.”

3. “It stresses unity using the name ‘Taiwan’ and not the name ‘Republic of China,’ ” says
Eric Huang, head of foreign media and international affairs for the KMT.
But a few days after Mr. Chu unveiled his slogan, President Ma met with China’s
President Xi Jinping—the first meeting between the two governments’ leaders since the
civil war ended in 1949. It reinforced the message that the KMT promotes closer
cooperation with Beijing, a trend that has been especially pronounced in President Ma’s
administration.
Nathan Batto, an assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica in Taipei, explains, “The
KMT always goes back to Taiwan language in elections. When Ma Ying-jeou ran for
mayor [of Taipei] in 1998, his campaign slogan was, ‘Taiwan first, Taipei first.’ This was a
particularly vivid reminder that when the KMT gets elected, they often throw away this
Taiwan rhetoric and go back to Chinese rhetoric.”
While canvassing at a temple in Taichung, KMT legislative candidate Yan Kuan-heng
tells me that to attract young voters, he has to distance himself from the party and
emphasize his personal achievements. I ask what he thinks of the party’s future. “If this
election’s results are quite bad—” He pauses. “No matter what the outcome is, we need
to reflect thoroughly and do major reforms to allow a new generation to support the
KMT.”
Some young KMT supporters are pessimistic that change can be realized. They worry
the party is rife with internal struggles and still run on the basis of seniority. The KMT
lost eight cities and municipalities, including Taipei, in last year’s mayoral elections—
the first elections after the Sunflower Movement—but it’s not apparent the party has
learned from the losses.
“They are still distant from us. They haven’t done anything for young people,” says Sean,
the young KMT supporter. “This is the last opportunity I’ll give the KMT.”
Ms. Liang is a Princeton-in-Asia fellow at The Wall Street Journal Asia editorial page.
Correction: Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement, during which university students occupied
the legislature, occurred in 2014. An earlier version of this story said it occurred in 2013.
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