Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
From The Floor 18 October 11
1. From The Floor
18 October 2011
Key Global Indices
UK Market Snapshot
Last 1D % 5D % 1M% 1Y%
Cl ose Chg Chg Chg Chg UK markets finished lower yesterday, paring early gains, after Germany
FTSE 100 5,436.7 -0.5% 0.7% 1.3% -5.3% damped expectations for a complete solution to the euro zone debt crisis at
DJSTOXX 50 2,257.6 -0.6% 0.1% 4.4% -11.9% the forthcoming European Union summit. Security services contractor, G4S,
FTSEurofirst 300 966.0 -1.0% 0.2% 3.0% -11.2% the top laggard on the FTSE 100 index, slumped 22.1%, after it agreed to
German DAX 30 5,859.4 -1.8% 0.2% 5.1% -10.1%
acquire Danish facilities services provider ISS. Among mining stocks, Rio
French CAC 40 3,166.1 -1.6% 0.1% 4.5% -17.4%
Tinto, Xstrata and Antofagasta declined between 1.3% and 3.6%, as base
Russia RTS Index 1,427.3 -1.5% 4.5% -9.4% -9.8%
S&P 500 1,200.9 -1.9% 0.5% -1.2% 1.4%
metal prices fell. Financial stocks, Legal & General, Royal Bank of Scotland
Dow Jones Industrials 11,397.0 -2.1% -0.3% -1.0% 2.3%
and Lloyds Banking declined between 0.6% and 2.5%, as worries about the
Nasdaq Composite 2,614.9 -2.0% 1.9% -0.3% 5.4% eurozone debt contagion increased. Fund manager, Schroders dropped
Brazil Bovespa 53,911.3 -2.0% 1.2% -5.8% -24.8% 1.3%, after UBS downgraded the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy”. However,
Nikkei 225* 8,731.1 -1.7% 3.2% 0.2% -6.5% oil industry services group, AMEC, firmed up by 1.7%, after it bagged a
Shanghai Composite* 2,399.6 -1.7% -1.7% -1.7% -17.4% contract worth £150 million. FTSE 100 dipped 0.5% or 29.7 points to settle at
Sensex* 16,813.6 -1.2% 2.8% 0.5% -15.6% 5,436.7, while FTSE 250 retreated 0.9% or 88.1 points to close at 10,250.4.
*Time - BST 5:13:04 AM
European Market Snapshot
5,555 Other European markets ended lower yesterday, led by sharp declines in
banking sector stocks, as hopes for an end to the eurozone debt crisis faded,
5,515 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned investors that European
leaders would not provide a comprehensive fix to the regions debt crisis at
5,475 their next meeting. Banks, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank and EFG
Eurobank Ergasias plunged between 9.1% and 10.0%, as concerns mounted
5,435 that Greece would default. BNP Paribas dropped 3.7%, after Standard &
Poor’s Ratings Services downgraded the lenders credit rating by one notch,
5,395 late Friday. Deutsche Bank fell 3.1%, amid reports that the bank’s exposure
8:00 9:45 11:30 13:15 15:00 16:35
to Las Vegas casinos has reached €4.9 billion, as large as its exposure to the
eurozone debt crisis. Royal Philips Electronics slipped 1.9%, after the
company reported a steep drop in its third-quarter earnings. FTSEurofirst 300
11,670 index slipped 1.0% to 966.0. German DAX Xetra 30 dropped 1.8% to 5,859.4.
French CAC-40 closed 1.6% lower at 3,166.1.
US Market Snapshot
11,598
11,525
US markets plunged yesterday, after comments by a German official damped
11,453 optimism of an imminent solution to the European debt crisis at the
European Union summit. Among home builders, Pulte Group, the top
11,380 laggard on the S&P 500 index, plunged 9.5%, while Beazer Homes USA and
9:30 10:45 12:00 13:15 14:30 15:45 KB Home declined 4.3% and 5.8%, respectively, as Fitch lowered its ratings
on their debt. Wells Fargo retreated 8.4%, as its third-quarter earnings
missed market expectations. Canadian Solar plummeted 13.7%, after it
8,900 slashed its third-quarter earnings outlook. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold
declined 4.5%, as it postponed production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
8,856 Citigroup slipped 1.7%, after S&P Equity Research cut its target price on the
stock. DJIA plunged 2.1% to 11,397.0. NASDAQ shed 2.0% to 2,614.9. S&P
8,813 500 lost 1.9% to 1,200.9.
8,769 Asian Market Snapshot
8,725
Asian markets are trading lower this morning, as hopes for a fast resolution
9:00 9:45 10:30 11:15 to the European debt crisis faded and after data showed that China’s
economic growth slowed down in the third quarter. In Japan, NEC, Toshiba
and Elpida Memory, lost values, as outlook for exporters weakened.
Manoj Ladwa 0207 392 1487 Financial stock, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped after its US peers,
Index and Equity Desk 0207 392 1479 Citigroup and Wells Fargo, reported lower quarterly earnings. In Hong Kong,
Institutional Equities 0207 392 1477 China Eastern Airlines dropped after the airliner confirmed that it was
Commodities 0207 392 1403 cancelling orders for Boeing 787 Dreamliners in favour of a smaller order of
Options 0207 392 1472
Airbus A330s. Jiangxi Copper and Angang Steel, lost values tracking lower
Currencies 0207 392 1455
Internet Dealing Desk 0207 392 1434
base metal prices. In South Korea, Samsung Life Insurance tumbled after CJ
Group sold 4 million shares of Samsung Life. Korea Electric Power lost value,
after it forecasted full-year loss of more than 2 trillion won. Nikkei 225 index
is trading 1.7% lower, at 8,731.1. Hang Seng index dropped 3.4%, to trade at
18,232.0, while the Kospi index is trading 1.6% lower, at 1,834.7.
ETX Capital, Beaufort House, 15 St Botolph Street, London EC3A 7DT Tel+44 (0) 207 392 1453
customerservice@etxcapital.co.uk www.etxcapital.com Refer to the last page for disclaimer
2. 18 October 2011
Commodities
88.3
1697.0 7,650 2,220
87.7 1688.8 7,398 2,193
$/ M T
$/ b b l
7,145 2,165
$ /OZ
87.0 1680.5
6,893 2,138
86.4
1672.3
6,640 2,110
85.7
0:00 5:30 11:00 16:30 22:40 1664.0 4-Oct 7-Oct 12-Oct 17-Oct
0:00 5:40 11:20 17:00 23:40 Copper - LHS Aluminium - RHS
In Asia, crude oil for November delivery is trading 8 cents lower at $86.30 per barrel. Yesterday, crude oil for November
delivery closed 0.5% or 42 cents lower at $86.38 per barrel, amid worries over demand prospects, after German Chancellor
Angela Merkel warned investors that European leaders are unlikely to provide a complete solution to the eurozone debt crisis.
Gold for immediate delivery is trading 0.1% lower today, at $1,672.11 per ounce. Gold prices for December delivery fell 0.4% or
$6.40 to $1,676.60 per ounce yesterday, as the dollar rose against the major currencies, decreasing the demand for the
precious metal as a hedge against inflation.
Currencies
1.1480 1.5855 1.3920
1.1451 1.5821 1.3868
1.1421 1.5788 1.3815
1.1392 1.5754
1.3763
1.1362 1.5720
1.3710
0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40 0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40
0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40
At 0400 BST today, the GBP is trading 0.3% higher against the USD at $1.57882, 0.1% up against the EUR at €1.1467 and 0.2%
higher against the JPY at ¥ 121.28.
The EUR is trading 0.2% higher against the USD at $1.37691.
The EUR is trading 0.1% higher against the JPY at ¥105.741.
The JPY is trading lower against most currencies amid speculation that housing starts in the US rose in September.
The NZD is trading higher against the USD, after New Zealand’s central bank indicated that interest rates would probably need
to be increased.
Yesterday, the GBP ended lower against the USD, after Ernst & Young LLP’s ITEM Club cut its UK growth forecast and stated
that the Bank of England should lower its main interest rate.
The EUR ended lower against the USD, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel dampened hopes that European leaders would
arrive at a complete fix to the eurozone debt crisis at their next meeting, decreasing the demand for high yielding assets.
The EUR also closed lower against the USD, after a report showed that US Industrial production rose 0.2% in September.
2 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
3. 18 October 2011
Key Economic Releases Today
Conse nsus/ *
Country BST E c onomi c Indi c a tor P re vi ous Fre que nc y
A c tua l s
UK 9:30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.40% 0.60% Monthly
UK 9:30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 4.90% 4.50% Monthly
UK 9:30 Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 3.20% 3.10% Monthly
UK 9:30 Retail Price Index (Sep) 237.60 236.10 Monthly
Retail Price Index Excluding Mort Int.Payments (YoY)
UK 9:30 5.50% 5.30% Monthly
(Sep)
UK 9:30 Retail Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.50% 0.60% Monthly
UK 9:30 Retail Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 5.40% 5.20% Monthly
Germany 10:00 ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Oct) -45.00 -43.30 Monthly
Germany 10:00 ZEW Survey - Current Situation (Oct) 40.00 43.60 Monthly
Eurozone 10:00 ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Oct) -45.20 -44.60 Monthly
US 0:30 Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economy in Maryland - - -
Fed's Rosengren Gives Welcome ReMarks at Boston Fed
US 13:15 - - -
Conference
US 13:30 Producer Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 0.20% 0.00% Monthly
US 13:30 Producer Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 6.40% 6.50% Monthly
Producer Price Index Excluding Food & Energy (MoM)
US 13:30 0.10% 0.10% Monthly
(Sep)
US 14:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows (Aug) $27.80 bn $9.50 bn Monthly
US 14:00 Total Net TIC Flows (Aug) - -$51.80 bn Monthly
US 15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 15.00 14.00 Monthly
US 17:30 Fed's Bernanke Speaks in Boston - - -
Japan 6:30 Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (Sep) - -2.90% Monthly
Japan 7:00 Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Sep) - 20.30% Monthly
Re a l G D P - YoY CP I - YoY 10 Ye a r Bond Yi e l d 1.50%
UK 0.7% 4.5% 2.6%
US 1.6% 3.8% 2.3% 1.00%
Japan -1.0% 0.2% 1.0%
0.50%
France 1.6% 2.2% 3.1%
Germany 2.7% 2.6% 2.2%
0.00%
Brazil 3.1% 7.3% 4.0%
Russia 3.4% 7.2% 6.0% -0.50%
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jun-10
Apr-11
Jun-11
Dec-09
Aug-10
Oct-10
Feb-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Feb-11
India 7.7% 9.0% 8.8%
China 9.5% 6.1% 3.8%
3 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
4. 18 October 2011
Key Corporate Releases Today
UK
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn)
Whitbread Plc Interim GBP 129.51 1,764.60
Bellway Plc Prelim GBP 52.08 925.93
Next Fifteen Communications Group Plc Final GBP 9.37 88.73
First Derivatives Plc Interim GBP 36.15 43.08
BP Marsh And Partners Plc Interim GBP - -
JZ Capital Partners Plc Interim GBP - -
Note: All Estimates are for Full Year
Xstrata Plc, UBM Plc
Arcontech Group, Crystal Amber Fund Ltd., Orosur Mining Inc
ORA Capital Partners Ltd.
Mattioli Woods
ViCTory VCT
Europe
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn)
Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton Sa Q3 Sales EUR 6.16 22,942.40
Danone Sa Q3 Sales EUR 2.96 19,330.00
Edb Ergogroup Asa Q3 NOK 0.94 12,840.40
Note: All Estimates are for Full Year
US
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus Re l e a se
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn) T i me
Apple Inc Q4 USD 33.05 135,300.00 U
Unitedhealth Group Inc Q3 USD 4.37 101,500.00 U
B ank Of A merica Co rp Q3 USD (0.31) 91,750.00 U
Johnson & Johnson Q3 USD 4.96 65,280.00 B
No te: A ll Estimates are fo r Full Year (A = A fter the market clo ses, B = B efo re the market o pens, D = During market ho urs, U = Time unkno wn )
4 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
5. 18 October 2011
What’s Hot & What’s Not
BP G4S -22.1%
2.2%
2.0% Man Group ITV -3.9%
GKN -3.7%
1.7% AMEC
1.4% Essar Energy Antofagasta -3.6%
0.9% National Grid Inmarsat -3.6%
Royal Dutch Shell- B Tullow Oil -3.4%
0.8%
0.8% Marks and Spencer Group Glencore International -3.4%
Whitbread Serco Group -3.2%
0.7%
0.7% Standard Chartered IMI -3.2%
0.7% Hammerson Kazakhmys -3.1%
0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.7% 2.3% -23.0% -17.3% -11.5% -5.8% 0.0%
Major Movers & Shakers
G4S slipped 22.1%, after the company agreed to buy the Danish outsourcing service provider ISS in a £5.2 billion deal.
Miners, Antofagasta and Kazakhmys lost 3.6% and 3.1%, respectively, as copper for December delivery fell 0.9% to $3.38 per
pound.
Tullow Oil dropped 3.4%, as crude oil for November delivery declined 0.5% to $86.38 per barrel.
BP advanced 2.2%, after the company reached an agreement to receive $4 billion from Anadarko Petroleum to settle all claims
between the companies related to the Deepwater Horizon accident.
Man Group rose 2.0%, as Numis Securities reiterated its “Buy” advice on the stock.
AMEC gained 1.7%, after the company won a £150-million engineering contract from BP to develop two oil rigs in the North
Sea.
5 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
6. 18 October 2011
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6 From The Floor