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From the Floor 05october11
1. From The Floor
5 October 2011
Key Global Indices
UK Market Snapshot
Last 1D % 5D % 1M% 1Y%
Cl ose Chg Chg Chg Chg UK markets plunged to close lower yesterday, amid investor concern over
FTSE 100 4,944.4 -2.6% -6.6% -3.1% -11.0% Greece’s ability to avert a default. Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking
DJSTOXX 50 2,090.6 -2.2% -4.2% -0.8% -15.3% Group and Barclays retreated between 4.2% and 7.6%, as their European
FTSEurofirst 300 887.8 -2.7% -5.4% -2.4% -15.5% peer, Deutsche Bank, trimmed its earnings forecast. Investment manager,
German DAX 30 5,216.7 -3.0% -7.3% -0.6% -15.0%
Hargreaves Lansdowne tumbled 7.9%, and emerged as top laggard on the
French CAC 40 2,850.6 -2.6% -5.7% -5.0% -21.9%
FTSE 100 index, on negative comments from a broker and amid fears of
Russia RTS Index 1,224.9 -5.2% -10.6% -24.2% -20.6%
S&P 500 1,124.0 2.2% -4.4% -4.3% -1.2%
“suppressed” demand for its investment products, while Man Group and
Dow Jones Industrials 10,808.7 1.4% -3.4% -3.8% 0.5%
Schroders shed 1.1% and 4.3%, respectively. Insurers, Aviva and Prudential
Nasdaq Composite 2,404.8 3.0% -5.6% -3.0% 2.6% lost 4.6% and 6.2%, respectively, amid concerns over worsening of their
Brazil Bovespa 50,686.3 -0.2% -6.0% -7.8% -28.0% portfolios. Miners, Anglo American and Lonmin, shed 3.4% and 5.3%,
Nikkei 225* 8,409.3 -0.6% -1.8% -3.7% -9.9% respectively, as Credit Suisse downgraded the former to “Neutral” from
Shanghai Composite 2,359.2 0.0% -2.3% -4.8% -11.2% “Outperformer” and the latter to “Underperform” from “Neutral”. Fresnillo
Sensex* 15,940.4 0.5% -4.0% -5.1% -22.5% plunged 6.6%, following a sharp decline in silver prices. FTSE 100 slumped
*Time - BST 5:19:46 AM 2.6% to close at 4,944.4, while FTSE 250 lost 3.3% to settle at 9,425.9.
5,100
European Market Snapshot
Other European markets closed sharply lower yesterday, led by heavy losses
5,044 in banking sector stocks, amid fears of more write-downs by banks and after
policy makers highlighted that they might renegotiate terms of Greek
4,988 bailout package, deepening concern that the sovereign debt crisis would
hurt the economic recovery. Among banking stocks, Deutsche Bank, fell
4,931 4.3%, after the company trimmed its full-year earnings estimates and
announced more job cuts, while Dexia tumbled 23.0%, after its board asked
4,875 the company to fix its “structural problems”. Airlines related stocks,
8:00 9:45 11:30 13:15 15:00 16:35 Lufthansa, Air France and EADS, slumped between 4.3% and 9.1%, after CFO
of the International Air Transport Association, Tony Tyler, stated that profit
margins of airlines might shrink further if economic growth slows to less than
10,850
2.4%. FTSEurofirst 300 index dropped 2.7% to 887.8. German DAX Xetra 30
eased 3.0% to end at 5,216.7. French CAC-40 edged down 2.6% to 2,850.6.
10,738
US Market Snapshot
10,625
US markets rebounded in the final hour of trading yesterday, to close higher,
amid reports that the European ministers are collaborating to recapitalize
10,513
banks in the region, in an effort to keep contagion risk at bay. Morgan
Stanley, the top gainer on the S&P 500 index, soared 12.4%, while Citigroup
10,400
9:30 10:45 12:00 13:15 14:30 15:45 and JPMorgan Chase rallied 5.5% and 6.6%, respectively, amid easing worries
over the European debt crisis. Technology stocks, Intel, Taiwan Semi and
Nvidia climbed between 2.9% and 9.2%, following a report that showed
better-than-expected semiconductor sales in August. Yahoo climbed 6.9%,
8,470
after private equity firm, Silver Lake, and Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies
joined Alibaba Group for a possible joint bid for Yahoo. AMR rebounded
8,445
sharply, leaping 20.7%, after it resumed contract negotiations with pilots.
DJIA advanced 1.4% to close at 10,808.7. NASDAQ surged 3.0% to settle at
8,420
2,404.8. S&P 500 rose 2.3% or 24.7 points to end at 1,124.0.
8,395
Asian Market Snapshot
8,370 Asian markets are trading lower this morning, amid concerns that European
9:00 9:45 10:30 11:15 13:00
law makers might not reach consensus on recapitalizing its banks, after
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Italy’s credit rating. Among banking
Manoj Ladwa 0207 392 1487
stocks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group traded lower as risk aversion increased
Index and Equity Desk 0207 392 1479
among investors. Mitsubishi and Marubeni paced declines, as oil and copper
Institutional Equities 0207 392 1477 prices declined yesterday. Fast Retailing lost value, after the company
Commodities 0207 392 1403 reported a decline in its sales for September. Tokyo Electric Power, traded
Options 0207 392 1472 lower, amid uncertainty over its payment of compensation to victims of
Currencies 0207 392 1455 radiation leaks, earlier this year. In South Korea, automobiles stocks, Kia
Internet Dealing Desk 0207 392 1434 Motors and Hyundai Motor, paced declines, amid concern that slowing
global economic growth would affect demand. Nikkei 225 index is trading
0.6% lower, at 8,409.3, while the Kospi index is trading 1.3% lower, at
1,684.9. Markets in Hong-Kong are closed on account of public holiday.
ETX Capital, Beaufort House, 15 St Botolph Street, London EC3A 7DT Tel+44 (0) 207 392 1453
customerservice@etxcapital.co.uk www.etxcapital.com Refer to the last page for disclaimer
2. 5 October 2011
Commodities
79.0
1690.0 8,600 2,355
78.0 1665.0 8,100 2,291
$/ M T
$/ b b l
7,600 2,228
$ /OZ
77.0 1640.0
7,100 2,164
76.0
1615.0
6,600 2,100
75.0
0:40 6:10 11:40 17:10 23:20 1590.0 20-Sep 23-Sep 28-Sep 3-Oct
0:00 5:40 11:20 17:00 23:30 Copper - LHS Aluminium - RHS
In Asia, crude oil for November delivery is trading 2.9% or $1.11 higher at $77.83 per barrel. Yesterday, crude oil for November
delivery declined 2.5% or $1.94 to settle at $75.67 per barrel, amid worries over demand prospects, after Goldman Sachs
forecasted that the euro zone would slip into a “mild recession” in the fourth-quarter of 2011 and first-quarter of 2012.
Additionally, S&P’s Credit Ratings Services also stated that there was a 40% chance of a new recession in Western Europe next
year. Crude oil also lost value, amid speculation that the US Energy Department’s weekly report would show a rise in crude oil
inventories.
Gold for immediate delivery is trading marginally higher today, at $1,630.36 per ounce. Gold for December delivery lost 2.5% or
$41.70 to settle at $1,616 per ounce yesterday, as investors took advantage of recent impressive gains and preferred to book
profits. Gold also paced declines, after reports indicated that European Finance Ministers were planning to coordinate
recapitalizations of financial institutions in the region.
Currencies
1.1720 1.5510 1.3370
1.1680 1.5463 1.3310
1.1640 1.5415 1.3250
1.1600 1.5368
1.3190
1.1560 1.5320
1.3130
0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40 0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40
0:00 6:40 13:20 20:00 2:40
At 0400 BST today, the GBP is trading 0.2% lower against the USD at $1.5435, marginally higher against the EUR at €1.1614,
and 0.4% lower against the JPY at ¥118.33.
The EUR is trading 0.2% lower against the USD at $1.3290 and 0.4% lower against the JPY at ¥101.89.
The EUR is trading lower against the USD and the JPY, amid speculation that mounting debt concerns and signs of economic
slowdown would force the ECB to announce additional stimulus measures at its meeting tomorrow. The EUR also lost value,
amid speculation that a report today would show a decline in the region’s retail sales in August
The JPY is trading higher against the USD, as persisting concerns about the global economy forced investors to invest in safe
haven assets.
Yesterday, the USD closed lower against the EUR, as the US Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the central bank might
implement a third round of quantitative easing if the European crisis deepens, and as European policy makers suggested at
new ways to recapitalize banks and resolve the region’s debt crisis.
The GBP closed lower against the EUR as investors speculated that the Bank of England would this week announce further
monetary stimulus to shore up the economy.
The AUD closed lower against the USD, amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia might cut interest-rates further to
ease inflationary pressures.
2 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
3. 5 October 2011
Key Economic Releases Today
Conse nsus/ *
Country BST E c onomi c Indi c a tor P re vi ous Fre que nc y
A c tua l s
UK - Halifax House Price (3M-YoY) (Sep) (5th-7th Oct) -2.10% -2.60% Monthly
UK - Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (Sep) (5th-7th Oct) 0.20% -1.20% Monthly
UK 0:01 BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 2.70%* 2.70% Monthly
UK 9:30 Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) 0.20% 0.20% Quarterly
UK 9:30 Current Account (Q2) -£11.00 bn -£9.40 bn Quarterly
UK 9:30 Purchasing Manager Index Services (Sep) 50.50 51.10 Monthly
UK 9:30 Government Spending (Q2) -0.10% 0.50% Quarterly
UK 9:30 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Q2) 0.70% -2.00% Quarterly
Germany 8:55 Purchasing Manager Index Services (Sep) 50.30 50.30 Monthly
France 8:50 Purchasing Manager Index Services (Sep) 52.50 52.50 Monthly
Eurozone 9:00 Purchasing Manager Index Composite (Sep) 49.20 49.20 Monthly
Eurozone 9:00 Purchasing Manager Index Services (Sep) 49.10 49.10 Monthly
Eurozone 10:00 Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) -0.30% 0.20% Monthly
Eurozone 10:00 Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q2) - 0.80% Quarterly
US 12:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (W/E) - 9.30% Weekly
US 12:30 Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (Sep) - 47.00% Monthly
US 13:15 ADP Employment Change (Sep) 70.00 K 91.00 K Monthly
US 15:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Sep) 52.80 53.30 Monthly
Re a l G D P - YoY CP I - YoY 10 Ye a r Bond Yi e l d
4.00%
UK 0.7% 4.5% 2.3%
US 1.6% 3.6% 1.9% 2.70%
Japan -1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.40%
France 1.6% 2.2% 2.5%
0.10%
Germany 2.7% 2.4% 1.8%
Brazil 3.1% 7.2% 4.0% -1.20%
Russia 3.4% 9.0% 6.0% -2.50%
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
India 7.7% 8.4% 8.3%
China 9.7% 6.2% 4.1%
3 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
4. 5 October 2011
Key Corporate Releases Today
UK
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn)
Tesco Plc Interim GBP 35.73 65,694.40
Sportingbet Plc Final GBP 6.36 258.32
Imperial Innovations Group Prelim GBP - -
Baillie Gifford Japan Trust (The) Prelim GBP - -
Note: All Estimates are for Full Year
Marston’s, Sainsbury (J), Tricorn Group, Dunelm Group, Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust Plc, John Wood Group Plc
Abbey, Alumasc Group, Begbies Traynor Group, City of London Investment Group, Eckoh, Edge Performance VCT 'C'
Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'D' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'E' Shares, Edge Performance VCT 'F' Shares, Fidelity
Asian Values, Galliford Try, Haynes Publishing Group, Pacific Horizon Inv Trust, Petmin Ltd. (DI), Produce Investment,
Qatar Investment Fund, Ruffer Investment Company Ltd, Tricorn Group, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI), Zetar
Betfair Group, Iomart Group, Newmark Security Plc, PZ Cussons, Stagecoach Group
ARM Holdings, Greencore Group, Novae Group, Rathbone Brothers, Timeweave
Europe
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn)
Nexeya Sa Q4 EUR 1.73 144.50
Bastide Le Confort Medical Sa Q4 EUR 0.71 117.37
Itesoft Sa Q2 EUR 0.05 21.20
Industrivarden Ab Q3 SEK (12.21) -
Notrefamillecom Sa Q2 EUR - -
Note: All Estimates are for Full Year
US
Compa ny N a me Re sul ts Curre nc y Ful l Ye a r Conse nsus Re l e a se
E sti ma te d E P S E sti ma te d Re ve nue (Mn) T i me
Costco Wholesale Corp Q4 USD 3.84 95,460.00 D
M o nsanto Co Q4 USD 3.42 12,470.00 D
Marriott International Inc Q3 USD 1.39 12,400.00 U
RPM International Inc Q1 USD 1.59 3,640.00 B
No te: A ll Estimates are fo r Full Year (A = A fter the market clo ses, B = B efo re the market o pens, D = During market ho urs, U = Time unkno wn )
4 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
5. 5 October 2011
What’s Hot & What’s Not
Hargreaves Lansdown -7.9%
2.6% Tesco
1.9% Burberry Group Barclays -7.6%
IMI -7.2%
1.8% Glencore International
0.4% International Power Weir Group -7.0%
0.04% Autonomy Corp GKN -6.6%
Fresnillo -6.6%
AMEC -6.3%
Prudential -6.2%
Vedanta Resources -6.1%
Randgold Resources Ltd -6.1%
0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.3% 3.1% -8.4% -6.3% -4.2% -2.1% 0.0%
Major Movers & Shakers
Tesco added 2.6%, after UBS upgraded the stock to “Buy” from “Neutral”.
Hargreaves Lansdown tumbled 7.9%, following negative comments from a broker.
Barclays plummeted 7.6%, after a profit warning from its European peer, Deutsche Bank.
Precious metal stocks, Randgold resources and Fresnillo, slumped 6.1% and 6.6%, respectively, following lower gold and silver
prices.
Vedanta Resources sank 6.1%, as base metal prices declined.
5 From The Floor Refer to the last page for disclaimer
6. 5 October 2011
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6 From The Floor