There are approximately 215,000 community associations in the United States, with over 18 million housing units and 42 million residents. Most new housing development is in the form of community associations. As communities age, they face challenges like deteriorating infrastructure, rising insurance costs, and an aging population. Many older residents now choose to remain in their homes and communities rather than relocate, creating issues around accommodating their needs. Housing trends also show more multi-generational living as people work longer and retirees start new businesses or work part-time jobs. Communities must address the differing needs and values of multiple generations living together.
Housing Trends and Community Associations in the 21st Century
1. Housing Trends for the 21st Century
Ellen Hirsch de Haan, J.D.
INTRODUCTION/ Historic Background
Housing in today’s world comes in all shapes, sizes, heights and configurations, and may include: single
family homes, rental apartments, condominiums, cooperatives, homeowner, property owner and planned
unit development communities governed by associations, master associations, manufactured housing
parks, timeshares, and any combination of these.
Historically, in the United States, condominiums, cooperatives and planned communities have been
developed in phases over the last 150 years. In fact, planned communities were first developed in the
1820’s; with cooperatives arriving from Europe around 1900, and condominiums being created in larger
numbers following the adoption of modifications to the federal housing administration (FHA) law in 1961.
With improved transportation and an abundance of land and resources, the first suburbs were developed
around the major cities on the east coast of the United States, following the street car lines. Then, with the
development and expansion of the railroads over the years, we soon had a mobile population following
jobs and family all over the country. Eventually, the inner cities became the homes of the first generation
immigrant populations, and those who could not afford to own their own homes or their own cars.
Today, based on best estimates, there are believed to be approximately 215,000 community associations in
the United States, with more than 18 million housing units and approximately 42 million residents, and
most of the housing development today is in the form of some kind of community association.
“There are believed to be
approximately 215,000 community
associations in the United States,
with more than 18 million housing
units and approximately 42 million
residents, and most of the housing
development today is in the form of
some kind of community
association.”
Bert Rodgers your license for success
2. CURRENT REALITY AND HOUSING TRENDS
Before we look at trends of the 21st century, let’s
look at the “current reality” about community
associations, to have some foundation and
background from which to move forward. In 2001,
the picture looked rosy. More people than ever
owned their own homes. Businesses were
booming, and there was pretty close to 100%
employment. The housing market was thriving.
Instead of playing in the stock market, investors
were trading in condominium unit and home
purchase contracts, buying and selling before the
closing occurred, and making thousands of dollars
in the process.
But, there were some practical issues and challenges
lurking in the wings. The structural components of
our buildings were aging. Some of the buildings
were constructed in the late 1960’s and early 70’s.
In New York, those are brand new buildings, but in
Florida, a building which is forty years old has aged
prematurely, affected by the salt air, rain, sand
scouring, humidity and sun. Major concrete
restoration of walkways and balconies, and
rebuilding of recreational amenities, took the place
of new construction, as we ran out of land on which
to build, with price tags in the millions of dollars.
Or, aging buildings were being torn down, and new
dwelling units constructed on the sites, in a process
known as in-fill.
Rental units were being converted into
condominiums at an alarming rate, often without
being updated, so they were sold “as is.” The
conversions took a number of rental units out of
the marketplace, as well.
Since 2004, in the wake of hurricanes and other
storms, floods, fires, and so on, virtually every
association pays substantially increased costs of
insurance than they did five years ago. For many
homeowners’ associations, the bulk of the annual
budget is the cost of insurance. The insurance
market is global, and even without losses in the
immediate geographic vicinity, a community
association may face occasional large increases in
premiums, sometimes as high as 100% or more per
year, because of catastrophic losses in another part
of the country or the world.
In addition to the aging of the physical property, we
face the aging of the residents in community
associations. There is a significant movement
toward remaining in a unit or a home, with or
without at home care, past the point at which
individuals had often traditionally gone to nursing
home and assisted living facilities. Our
community association-run communities are not
physically equipped to accommodate any special
mental or physical needs of an aging population,
and the boards of directors are not trained to be
social workers, mental health professionals, or
health care givers. Too often, older persons were set
up in a condominium unit by their families, and
then forgotten, with the hope that the association
would somehow take care of them now. And this
problem is not limited to Florida and other
traditional retirement meccas.
As we begin the new Century, we must deal with
the aging of the populations within the units, and
the problems which accompany diminishing health
and capacity. In 1995, the U.S. Department of
Commerce and U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development American Housing Survey for
the United States in 1995
(Washington, D.C., GPO, 1997) showed 33% of the
homes in America occupied by individuals who are
55 and over. Between the years 1998 and 2010, the
population in the 55+ age group increased by
more than five million people, according to the U.
S. Census Bureau.
3. Once clustered predominantly in areas like Florida, Arizona, Texas, California and Nevada, today,
community associations now exist in every part of the country, and, a growing number of individuals
have chosen to remain in their homes and familiar surroundings, rather than moving to traditional
retirement destinations. This trend has created what has become known as a
“Naturally Occurring Retirement Community”. People are routinely deciding to stay in the towns in
which they retired, where they have friends and family near by, in familiar surroundings. And these
communities may no longer be equipped to deal with the needs of a retirement population, after
experiencing the exodus of the retirees for so long.
In addition, the Baby Boomers have shown themselves to be highly likely to remain in their homes or
to move into a community within their familiar geographic area.
In the construction arena, urban sprawl is the result of comprehensive development plans of the past.
Urban sprawl occurs when there is building on all available land, including wetlands, land under power
lines, and land without quick access to major roadways; without regard for environmental impact,
aesthetic issues, or the ability of the local governing bodies to provide the necessary infrastructure for
water, sewer, electric, roadways, schools, and recreation. In fact, the spread of community association
development is directly related to the inability of the municipalities to pay for development of
infrastructure to the more remote areas; as the obligations have been shifted to the developers. There
has been a pattern of widespread, low-density residential and commercial settlements; leap-frogging
development around and beyond already established communities, without regard for design or
function; increasing dependence upon personal automobiles, and the decrease in availability of public
transportation; little or no centralized planning or control of land use, until after the damage has been
done; widespread strip commercial development; segregation of specialized types of land uses in
separate zones; over-building; and very little planning for providing for low income housing. In 1920,
there was an average of 6,160 people per square mile; in 1990, the average was 2,589 people per square
mile.
As you have read the papers or otherwise followed the news since the turn of the 21st Century, you are
aware of the marked diminishing of the quality of life for millions of Americans, caused by traffic
congestion and long commutes, air pollution, squandering of energy resources, escalating costs of
living, and lack of affordable housing. Today, you can add astronomical unemployment numbers and
mortgage foreclosures in the 100’s of thousands to the pressures facing people.
There has been an increasing feeling of personal isolation and a desire for community isolationism.
We waited until we drove into the driveways of our homes, so we could feel like aperson and not a
car. Historically, the philosophy of development at the turn of the 21st Century included:
“nimby” (not in my backyard), “banana” (build absolutely nowhere near anyone), and the credo of
the politician: “nimtoo” (which stands for not in my term of office) and is shorthand for a
reluctance to endorse change or espouse a potentially unpopular point of view, particularly in an
election year.
4. Deteriorating infrastructure is causing public danger, and health hazards. You saw the collapse of the
bridge in Minneapolis, which brought the desperate need for repairs of bridges and roadways to
national attention. That disaster resulted in very little repair work actually following, even with the
rampant unemployment problems of today. There has been a terrible impact on the human soul as a
result of long commutes from home to work, and too many hours spent in the car, including the
emergence of “road rage” as a commonly recognized psychological disorder. At their most benign, the
commuting hours spent in the car have eroded family time, and time spent in leisure activities.
In 2001, an estimated 70% of Americans quit working full-time before they were 65 years old. Then,
two years ago, their retirement savings were wiped out in a couple of days, following the crashes of the
mortgage and stock markets. After initial retirement, seniors moved to second careers - some pursuing
interests which they developed as hobbies, or as home-based industry. Today, those who retired are
taking any work they can find, filling jobs traditionally held by teenagers and college students, or
individuals without specialized training, education or skills. And, industry and business are faced with
potential crisis if the skilled workers retire, taking their knowledge and experience with them, and
leaving no replacement workers able to fill in the gap. In Japan, 22 percent of the population is over 65
(compared to 13 percent in the U.S.) and draining the public pension systems, with more benefits being
paid out than contributions are being paid in. This has resulted in a concerted effort to encourage
workers to stay on the job.
From 2000 through 2009, employment among 16- to 19-year-olds fell by 242,000 jobs, while the
number of works 55 and older increased by 128,000. In the first six months of 2010, 6.6 million people
65 and older worked or looked for work, vs. 5.9 million 16- to 19-year-olds. The 16- to 19-year-olds
face unemployment rates of 25 percent nationwide, with rates in California at 34 percent.
With changes in the Social Security Laws, the age of retirement with full benefits has been extended
to 67, and will be further extended down the line. With the advent of telecommuting, and the
vigorous development and improvement of technology, home-based businesses are expected to
increase exponentially in the next five years, particularly among the newly-retired population. And,
many Baby Boomers won’t retire for years to come.
What are the issues challenging new or existing communities which provide mixed-age housing, and
how are we going to deal with them in the second decade of the 21st Century?
5. CURRENT ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
There was an article in the local paper, which explained that AARP was facing its own mid-life crisis, as
the Baby Boomers reached and passed the age of 50. AARP legally changed its name from “American
Association of Retired Persons” to “AARP” as it tried to change its image.
According to an AARP study, only a fifth of the Boomers expect to move to a new geographic area when
they retire, and only one-third expect to scale back their lifestyles. In a survey conducted in May and
June, 2002, AARP found that 34% of individuals over the age of 45 who were surveyed said they
intended to continue working part time because they were interested in the work, or wanted something
to do. 19% said they would continue to work for the money. 10% said they would start a new business,
and 6% said they would work full time at a new job.
In 2004, Boomers saw themselves as “Zoomers” - a Baby Boomer who saw retirement as the fast lane to
a more energetic, new life characterized by healthy living, a high level of physical activity, a quest for
further education; and who possessed technological and financial savvy. The aging Yuppies are
generally better educated and enjoy better health than the prior generations of retirees. Today, AARP
found that as many as 85% of the Baby Boomers expected to continue working or begin new careers or
start businesses after the traditional retirement age.
6. NEW ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Today, there are four generations, who are trying to live together:
1. The Matures, who were born between 1920 and 1945 - They are the last of the veterans of the World
and Korean Wars, and are also called the “Silent Generation.” This generation is all about sacrifice. They
went through the Great Depression, and they recycle. Their heroes were military figures. They hold to
the belief that a rule is a rule. And they feel that change is good, as long as it is the type of change they
have envisioned. The Matures defined the world in which we live for many years, but have now moved
aside to make room for the Baby Boomers.
2. The Baby Boomers, born between 1945 and 1964 - Approximately 77 million in number, this group is
made up on workaholics who believe in teamwork and democracy. They don’t take sick days, and they
value loyalty. They don’t necessarily see the need to follow rules, which makes our lives interesting when
they move into our community associations. Their heroes tend to be national figures, like John Fitzgerald
Kennedy and Martin Luther King. And, until approximately 2030, we will continue to have Baby Boomer
generation Presidents in the United States. The Boomers share with the Matures a sense of history and
the value of craftsmanship, the concept of “built to last.” They invented the idea of “meaningful work,”
and the workplace continues to be a part of their self-identity. This leads to some interesting challenges
for community associations who must deal with retirees who don’t have an identity any longer, once the
job is gone.
3. The Generation X’ers, born between 1965 and 1977, number about 44 million - This group was raised
in an environment in which both parents worked. They question their parents’ values, and feel that jobs
and housing are disposable. This generation places greater value on family and personal life than the
Boomers, and feel that a balanced life is more important than professional accomplishments.
4. The Generation Y’s, also called the Echo Boomers, born between 1977 and 2000, are about 80 million
in number (approximately 33% of the U.S. population) – For the first time in a very long time, the Baby
Boomers are no longer the largest generation. As of this year, those age 33 and younger number
approximately 137 million, or 46% of the U.S. population. This group has been protected and provided
for. Many of them have always known the Internet, laptops, and cell phones. They have never physically
touched a television set. For children born in 1984, cars have always had CD players and air bags.
Weather reports have always been available 24 hours a day on television. The United States and Russia
have always been partners in space, and a hotline is a consumer service, rather than a phone used to avoid
an accidental nuclear war. Genetic testing and DNA screening have always been available. This
generation focuses on its individual choices, goals and futures. An interesting example of a marketing
campaign to appeal to this generation is the military services ad which touts the “Army of One.” For
them, the work ethic is equivalent to the worth ethic.
In the 1960’s, consumers looked for “the house.” In the ‘70’s, the subdivision and the master plan were
important. In the 1980’s and 1990’s, lifestyle was the commodity. And now, in the 21st Century,
“community” is coming into its own, once again. And where the generations mix, there is a dynamic
tension arising from the potential for clashing approaches to life, the universe, and the concept of levying
assessments. This applies to the housing market, but also to employees in your communities and/or
management companies.
In the year 2001, there were 6.1 billion people on the Planet Earth. In the year 2050, the population is
predicted to increase to 8 billion. There will have to be a global union of individual freedom with
common good in order for us to survive.
7. A survey published in the Miami Herald (September 16, 1995) showed that unmarried couples over the
age of 45 were the fastest growing type of household in Florida, and across the nation. Singles were
moving in together for mutual emotional support, health care and social company, as well as to pool
finances for a better quality of life.
Many Baby Boomers who reach retirement age today did not or were not able to financially plan for
retirement, because of inadequate income, catastrophic illness or death of a spouse, lack of professional
assistance and advice, and so on, or will outlive their savings. Social Security, which was originally
designed to support a retired person for four or five years, now provides support for fifteen to twenty
years after retirement. The volatility of the stock market and interest rates has significantly impacted on
the retirement fund planning for those who were able to put some money away. This undoubtedly has
an impact on owners’ ability to afford housing and pay assessments to the community association.
With the failure of seniors to plan financially for their independence has come the rise of the Sandwich
Generation. These are the individuals in their 40’s, 50’s and 60’s who are either still caring for their own
children (due to deferred child bearing) or have children who have returned home after college or
following financial problems; and are now in the position of having to care for their aging or infirm
parent or parents, who may reside with them. Today, the old are caring for the older. People are living
quite a bit longer now. In one case, the mother, who was 103 years old, moved in with her 66 year old
daughter and daughter’s husband. Instead of focusing on her own time, money management and health
issues, which can be significant, the daughter is now sharing her resources with her mother. According
to an article published on September 18, 1995 in the Miami Herald, 75% of these caregivers are women,
daughters reunited with their mothers after years of independence, sometimes repaying childhood
kindness, sometimes replaying childhood battles. And the strains and struggles, both emotional and
physical, are immensely stressful to those who are entering their own retirement years.
There has been a lot of conversation locally in Tampa Bay, about the construction of high speed rail
connections, and inner-city people movers. Something must be done to ease the traffic congestion and
the over-burdened parking facilities, as well as the stress of being in the car. In fact, the Florida voters
approved construction of high speed rail, not once but twice, before anyone started looking at the
possibilities. And, where will the money come from to pay for the construction of the infrastructure to
implement the plan? There is some Federal funding for the project, but there will likely be a municipal
bond or other local government or state source to tax an already over-extended general public.
In 2009, the Florida Legislature, apparently still operating based on the 20th Century model of build
anytime and anywhere, adopted Senate Bill 360, which allows developers in the most urban counties to
proceed with their projects, without paying to expand roads which will be affected by the new
development. The Law also provides that the local city or county government can designate new urban
areas which will be exempt from road-building requirements. The taxpayers then foot the bill for road
improvements and construction of new roads. And, this law was passed at a time when there may be as
many as 600,000 vacant homes in Florida, due to over-building and the huge number of foreclosures.
According to recent research, the average size of households is actually increasing, because of merging
households in the current economic and employment crisis; so that the demand for housing is actually
diminishing.
And the biggest story for community associations in the last three years - the mortgage crises. The first
tier of foreclosures involved those who bought homes they couldn’t afford at the time they bought; and
investor buyers who could not flip the units. The second round involves those who lost their jobs, or
otherwise reached the point of being unable to continue to pay. The next group will be commercial
properties, and the completion of the foreclosures which have been dragging on for two years or more.
8. Initially, the hardest hit were the condominium conversations and new communities, because of the
investors who walked away from their properties. Communities with aging populations on fixed
incomes are also in jeopardy. Virtually every community has at least one unit or home in foreclosure.
For a while, the foreclosures slowed as banks and homeowners pursued short sales and mortgage loan
modifications in the wake of the federal government incentives. In the first six months of 2010, there
were more than 1.9 million foreclosure filings nationwide. This is down 5 percent from the beginning of
2010, but up 8 percent from a year ago. During the period from January to June, 2010, Florida had 3.25
percent of its homes in foreclosure, and ranked third-highest in foreclosures behind Nevada and
Arizona. But, for the month of June, Florida ranked second. There were 277,073 filings in Florida in
the first 6 months of 2010. One out of every 170 Florida households received a foreclosure filing in June.
With 2,638 filings in Hillsborough County and 2,449 filings in Pinellas, the two counties ranked fifth and
sixth highest, respectively, among Florida counties. Banks took back 1,117 homes in the Tampa Bay area
in June, up 26 percent from May, and up 43 percent from a year ago. Even if mortgage modifications
were negotiated, some of them subsequently failed when homeowners couldn’t meet the new payments,
and this year, adjustable rates are resetting to higher rates.
The foreclosure crisis also has a ripple effect - community development and special taxing districts are
starting to fail, as the foreclosed households represent homes which are not paying into the CDD or
STD. Economists are saying that they expect 50 percent or more of the Districts to fail in the next couple
of years. Cities and Counties are cutting municipal services, including police and fire fighters, and
government expenses as real property taxes are not being paid on many thousands of dwellings.
APPROACHES AND SOLUTIONS FOR THE SECOND DECADE OF THE NEW
CENTURY
Where are we going? Economists agree that the foreclosure crisis is likely to continue for two more
years, and that, once the crisis actually passes, we will never go back to the level we reached prior to the
crash.
At the level of development of appropriate housing facilities for addressing aging in place, there has been
some growth in the construction of multi-tiered communities. I am referring to those communities
which provide for fully-independent living, and then for gradually-increasing degrees of assistance to
full nursing home facilities, all within the same project. Of course, we still have the problem of healthy
and vital individuals who do not want to be reminded of incipient decrepitude, and who do not like
having the hospital facility located prominently in the community. Still, the multi-tiered community
does provide a measure of peace of mind, since an occupant who has no family knows he or she will be
cared for as time passes and capacity diminishes.
Municipalities will need to review services and make changes to accommodate individuals who are now
staying in their pre-retirement homes. This will need to be done not only at the governmental level, but
also at the level of service and goods providers who will have to meet the new market needs of in-home
services and delivery.
In the short run, the trend for designing new housing developments continues in the direction of
rediscovering and encouraging the sense of community in community associations. Architects and
planners are involved and committed to the new approach. All over the country, developers are
constructing communities in which you can walk, providing pedestrian access to amenities, including
commercial facilities, and alleviating the need to use your car to move around within the community.
9. The general concept is to recreate the traditional neighborhood development (TND), mixed use
communities, which include commercial sites within the residential community boundaries. These
might include a grocery store, a drugstore, a dry cleaner, an exercise complex. These communities are
pedestrian friendly, and relieve the current dependence on having a car. The idea is to enable those who
do not drive, or who do not wish to drive, a group which might include anyone from seniors to children,
to have access to basic services, activities and recreation, within walking distance, conveniently close to
home. The TND mixture will also include different styles of housing stock, to provide choices of design
and price, and to add visual interest in the design of the community. There are communities in which
large single family homes are mixed with smaller townhouses, and so on, not only in the same
neighborhood, but even on the same block, recreating the old neighborhood models. The TND returns
us to a mix of ages, life stages, and incomes.
Buyers are returning to the downtown areas, and developers are renovating, recycling, and rebuilding in
the inner cities. “Living in the Fun Zone,” near entertainment and restaurants is catching on in
downtown Chicago. In the South of Market Area of San Francisco, formerly industrial areas have been
converted to housing, both sale and rental; shopping; and entertainment uses. Development in the
Channelside area of downtown Tampa continues, even in this economy.
The commercial development might look like main street in Celebration, Florida, with a mix of
dwellings over the ground level retail space, and the annual meeting held in the movie theater at town
center, complete with soft drinks and popcorn; or a small cluster of stores or medical offices located
with the clubhouse facility.
New designs include a return to the use of front porches to encourage residents to sit outside and
interact with their neighbors; alleys and rear garages for driving and parking cars; walking paths and
sidewalks; exercise paths, bicycle and rollerblading paths; and a great deal of landscaping, including
flowers and trees. This may require revisiting zoning laws and growth plans in various areas, to allow for
that kind of mixed use, and to encourage formative use of public space, in place of residual public space.
This kind of development is going to be necessary if the re-creation of public transportation continues to
lag behind the pace of construction and the trends toward urban sprawl.
We have moved from the “industrial age” to the “information age”. What will that mean for the growth
of home-based businesses? With the boom in technological development, futurists predict that more
than half of the work force will be working out of their homes, using their computer systems and taking
advantage of internet business possibilities, possibly within the next five years. And with the
development of technology, we will see a new definition or even disappearance of retirement as we have
known it. Home-based business and telecommuting are on the rise.
And speaking of technological advances, community associations are using the internet to create a global
front porch, to provide a community website, from which residents can access the schedule of events,
minutes of the board meetings, financial reports, copies of the association documents, information about
the community, chat rooms and bulletin boards. Eventually, there will be the opportunity to attend a
community association membership meeting via videoconferencing or skype, and maybe the meeting
will be held entirely on the net, rather than in a meeting room. There are direct web links to relevant
sites in county, city, state and federal government for information and access to laws. You can contact
your local congressmen via email.
10. Seniors are logging on to the Internet in record numbers, including a growing population of people
using the Internet are those over the age of 50. Introductory courses in computer use and Internet
access are filled to capacity at local colleges. The exponential growth of social networking has broken
down barriers around privacy and intimacy, as people share the minute details of their lives with
hundreds of “friends.” And with the huge increase in the use of the internet and email has come the
ability of employers, co-workers, government agencies, news media, and so on to spy on you and your
personal preferences, as well as to monitor your messages and internet use. The courts have ruled that
the employer providing internet access has the right to review any messages sent via the system. And
deleting messages and materials does not permanently erase them from the hard drive. Don’t put
anything in an email that you wouldn’t want communicated to the world in print, on broadcast or on
the Web. And, I won’t even go into sexting or otherwise sharing x-rated photos.
There are many more smart houses, either in new construction, or in the retrofitting of already existing
housing stock. Builders are moving from “bricks and sticks” to “clicks and sticks.” New homes will be
wired for high-speed and broadband internet and web access as a “plug in” feature, just as electricity is
now.
Baby Boomers are buying or building houses in which all living space is contained on a single floor. Or,
in the case of a two-story house, there is a master bedroom and bath suite on the ground floor, and the
ability to live comfortably on the first level, should that become desirable or necessary because of health
or age considerations. Using a life-span design concept, sinks and doors use levers instead of knobs.
Doorways and halls are wide enough to allow wheelchair access. Exists to the outdoors have gradual
sloping paths, rather than steps. The showers have a pull down seat. Walls are reinforced to support
grab bars. Ovens open from the side to avoid reaching over a hot door.
Two-story homes have stacking closets, one above the other, to allow for the installation of a small
elevator in the future, if needed, or if desired to enable the resident to remain in his/her home. New
homes, admittedly in the higher price ranges, are being built with elevators already installed. This is
particularly helpful for waterfront construction, in which the living quarters begin on what would have
been the second floor because of flood zone requirements. And, as property becomes increasingly
scarce, expansion will be up rather than out.
More trends include: recognition of the concept of smart growth and urban infill. That is, we will be
building in the undeveloped spaces which are left in existing communities, and replacing decrepit and
deteriorated buildings with new construction. Smart growth includes planning for access to and
expansion of public transportation, sidewalks, recreation areas, greenspace, and exercise trails. It also
includes making use of already existing resources, and not permitting unlimited growth just because a
piece of property exists. It is not enough to simply build houses. The developer of the future will have
to create value and a sense of community to attract the buyers of tomorrow.
In response to the foreclosure crisis, growth management will have to consider the costs of sprawl
(including tax liability), respect for and conservation of the earth’s natural resources, more compact
communities with higher density dwellings and more green spaces, land conservation to reduce
infrastructure needs, improvement of air and water quality, and rediscovery of the core of our cities and
towns. These measures will be necessary to increase the tax base for local, state and federal
governments, while decreasing the support costs.
11. There is a development concept known as green communities. These communities are designed in
harmony with the topography of the building site, incorporating trees and uneven terrain, to create an
aesthetic value with the market value, and using ecologically sound building materials, including
recycled products. This also includes using building materials whose manufacturing does not have a big
impact on the earth’s resources or ecology by reducing the use of energy and water. Green construction
promotes indoor air quality, reduces dependence on cars, and employs natural heating and cooling,
such as sun and shade. These houses are energy efficient, and non-toxic to both the residents and the
environment. These houses incorporate the Frank Lloyd Wright concepts of harmony as a dynamic of
development. In addition, the purpose of green construction is to create environmentally sustainable
and healthy buildings, housing and landscaping practices.
Already, there are new types of consumers for standard housing stock – The parents of the Baby
Boomers, who lived through the Great Depression, saw home ownership as the ultimate signal of
success. Some of the Boomers, who have reached a level of economic success, are now looking to
recapture a quality of the life they remembered growing up . They are looking for an interesting and
convenient place to live, with the possibility of becoming involved in the community. They don’t want
to cocoon, they want to congregate. They are looking for an “old-fangled new town.” There must be
an “architecture of engagement” inherent in designing a platform from which a new kind of community
will grow. The Generation X’er is not looking to make an investment in a home, but rather to find a
house which suits his lifestyle for now, and which can be passed on when he outgrows it or tires of it.
For him, housing is disposable.
And there will be a broadening of focus, as residents look to see the larger community of which their
home communities are a part. Each owner must become involved in the economic, political and moral
issues outside of his/her immediate subdivision. There will need to be an expanded sense of social
responsibility, which is fostered in our children, in order to provide low income housing opportunities,
and an increase in the quality of living for all of us. We will look for the shared common traits and
goals, not for the differences.
The same size housing unit is attractive to a variety of consumers, such as: the empty nester, the retiree,
and the couple or single person without children. The future will bring a larger diversity of population
within community associations, and a variety of cultural and ethnic backgrounds. Part of the strength
of this country is that it was built on the cultural, racial and ethnic diversity of its population, right from
the inception. The new diversity of our communities will bring new challenges in creating a sense of
community in which all residents understand the requirements which must be met to allow everyone to
share living spaces. And we will have a diversity of use, activities and design in our communities, arising
from and in response to our diverse populations.
There will be opportunities for flexible design and combinations of uses to provide packages of
amenities and incorporate an inclusive lifestyle, not an exclusionary community.
The concept of smart growth will require the construction of higher density communities and
preservation of land and greenspace. Use of clean and renewable energy sources, including solar energy,
will have to be expanded . The laws protecting renewable resources are already in place. Community
residents will have to become more involved in the process, regarding changes to state laws and local
zoning ordinances.
More educated and sophisticated consumers will demand a different kind of housing and an improved
kind of community. With the technological advances, you will be able to live anywhere and still work.
12. The Baby Boomers have been a very large segment of the population. Yet, as a group, they are not that
interested in doing the community governance work themselves. If they do not get involved in planning
and governance of our communities, who will do it? There will continue to be professional community
association management teams to take care of the day to day operations of the communities, and free the
membership for the more interesting pursuits of their lives and families.
By the year 2020, there will be a 14% increase in the number of people over the age of 80. There will be a
21% increase in the number of people fourteen years of age and under. And as the Boomers age, there
will be a 14% drop in the number of people who are 35 to 49. Today, there are an estimated 70,000
Americans who are 100 or older, a number which has tripled since 1980. The whole definition of “old”
will change dramatically in the coming years. We Baby Boomers will never concede we are old. Witness
the huge growth of exercise programs and gyms. The cover of Modern Maturity Magazine, September-
October 1999 issue, featured Actor Susan Sarandon, and the title article was “Great Sex – What’s Age
Got To Do With It.” Researchers at Yale University’s department of Epidemiology and Public Health
found that people with a positive attitude toward aging tended to live 7.5 years longer than those with
less positive feelings. And attitude has been shown to affect physical health, including cholesterol and
blood pressure.
Communities governed by community associations will continue to be built in record numbers. Recent
studies have shown that consumers buy their most expensive homes at the average age of 47. With the
volatility of the stock market, investment in a second home and real estate in general has become more
attractive again.
With the advent of an ever increasing number of drivers over age 55, municipalities and counties,
highway engineers, safety groups and automobile manufacturers will make some changes to the roads
and vehicles to make them more accessible for diminished visual and hearing acuity, and slowing
reflexes. These might include larger, brighter signs; improved road lighting; pavement markings which
still reflect light when wet; and advance sign placement. Improvements to public transportation are
required, so that senior drivers can have a viable alternative. There have been some experimental forays
into cars that can be programmed to drive to the destination without a person physically driving the car,
using strips embedded in the road. Electric-powered cars will be more common, and community
associations will have to deal with charging stations on the common property.
The abandonment of the inner cities will continue to be replaced with widespread gentrification,
rebuilding, and infill, with a mixture of residential and commercial uses, and a range of prices to
accommodate all levels of buyers. The revitalization of inner cities will no longer mean the displacement
of those who have the fewest resources or options for moving elsewhere.
Housing designs will help recreate a sense of history, valuing aesthetics and individual expression over
cookie-cutter uniformity of exterior appearance.
There will need to be recognition of the fact that we are the stewards of the planet’s resources, spaces,
and people, and we have an obligation to be wise and judicious in our decisions and implementation of
our choices.
It is necessary to recognize the inherent social tensions of trying to balance people and property, and the
social tensions which are created by diversity, and use them to create a balance and to focus on
relationships, rather than on compliance. In the first decade of the 21st Century, 60% of first time home
buyers are expected to be minorities and immigrants.
13. Government agencies must understand the need for conservation of land and for preservation of
greenspaces, wetlands, and other environmental assets. Livable communities of tomorrow will be more
compact, with generous access to parks, playgrounds, trails, and natural open spac. New communities
will consume less land, require less infrastructure, and provide a high quality of life.
We must learn from our mistakes, and learn from our successes, finding the community designs and
experiences which work, while avoiding mass duplication of a template when one is created. It is
necessary to take into consideration the differences among building sites, local resources, community
needs, market demands and so on.
Based upon medical advances and research developments, we look forward to many more years of
productive and quality life, and we are looking for communities of tomorrow – communities which are
vibrant, responsive, competent, and harmonious. The new construction is easy. The real challenge for
us will be in reinventing already existing communities as strong, caring organizations which positively
affect the lives of the members and residents.
Ellen Hirsch de Haan, B.A., M.Ed., J.D.
Ms. de Haan is a partner with the law firm, Wetherington Hamilton, P.A.. She focuses her practice in the
area of Community Association Law, representing condominium, cooperative, timeshare, and homeowner
associations.
She is a past president of both the Foundation for Community Association Research and the National
Community Associations Institute (CAI) National , a past commissioner for the National Board of
Certification – Community Association managers (NBS-CAM), and was a member of the CAI Teaching
Faculty from 1994-2012. Currently, she serves on the Board of Advisors to both the University of Miami
School of Law Institute on Condominium and Cluster Developments.
Ms. de Haan has authored numerous works and has received many awards for her contributions in
education, training, and service to the community association industry. She continues to lecture at various
symposiums and frequently publishes articles relating to community associations.