1. DebtLimitDeal Ends US EmbarrassmentinAsia and Gives Obama Another Chance to Refocus Pivot, for
Now
The recentlypassedsuspensionof the debtlimit toMarch 2015 by the US Congresshasbrought
some degree of sanitybackto Asian perceptionsof Washington’seffectivenessinmanagingitsaffairs.
Followingthe governmentshutdownlastSeptemberandthreatsof defaultbymembersof Congressto
getpolicyconcessionsfromPresidentObama,talkincreasedopenlyaboutmovingtoa “de-
Americanizedworld.”Thisthreatmayhave beenexaggerated,butObama’spostponementof along
plannedtriptothe regionunderscoresthe damage USprestige tookandthe US’ inabilitytokeep
strategicfocuson an area itsingledout.Now,the completionof thisdeal allowsObamatoavoidfurther
embarrassmentinthese manufacturedcrisesandrefocusattentiontothe AsiaPacific.However,
regional tensionsandpotential violentoutburstsinkeyelectionsinthe Middle Eastthisyearthreaten
thisreturnto the rebalance.
First,the recentflare upamongSouthKorea,Chinaand JapanoverJapan’shistoricrole inpast
conflictswiththose twocountriesunderlinesabroadertensionthatcoulddestabilize the regionand
prove challengingforthe US to mediate. JapanesePrime MinisterShinzoAbe’svisittothe Yasukuni
shrine lastDecemberagitatedSouthKoreanandChineseuneasinesswithJapan’srole inthe region.In
addition,Abe’sproposalsformilitarymodernizationandreformstothe country’sconstitutionunnerve
itsneighborsstill strugglingwiththe difficulthistorical traumaJapaninflictedbefore andduringWorld
War II.Furthermore,China’srecentproclamationof ADIZ(AirDefenseIdentificationZone) and
provocationsneardisputedislandsupsetthe regional orderthatthe US builtafter1945. Washington’s
role as an honestbrokerandbalancerof regional powersensuredanequilibriumthatkepthistorical
hostilitiesandthe rise of regional powersincheck.However,Washington’sfiscal battlesandheavy
involvementinthe Middle Eastthreatenthisequilibriumbecausethe UnitedStateshaslostsome
measure of itsefficacyasa problemsolverandmediator.It’snota stretchthat SouthKoreans,Chinese

2. and Japanese wouldquestionhowthe US couldhelpthemsolve theirproblemsif Americanscan’tagree
to come to the table amicablyandin goodfaith.
Second,2014 marksa year of political transitionandriskinanotherregionthe USfindsitself
still engageddespite the well-publicized“pivot”toAsia.InAfghanistan,PresidentHamidKarzai steps
downaftera presidentialelectionthatfindsethnic,cultural,andsectariantensionscomingtoa head.
The UnitedStatesis attemptingtoensure afree,fairandpeaceful election, butTalibanthreatsto
disruptthe pollsandpast allegationsof wrongdoingandvote fraud mayensnare the US. The
combinationof these elementsmayforeshadow anew rise inviolencethatcouldshake upthe planned
US withdrawal of troopsthisyear.Also, Iraqis holdingparliamentaryelectionsthisspringthatwill test
Prime MinisterNouri Al-Maliki’sabilitytoprotectthe population.Withthe deteriorationinsecurity
alongthe borderwithSyriaand the central government’scontinuedstruggle withAl QaedaandSalafist
terror groupsinthe west,the administrationwill face greatercallsinside the Congresstoassistthe
Iraqis.The riskof newviolence inthesetwocountriesissogreatthat itis conceivable the USwill notbe
able to reassure bothalliesandadversariesinAsiaitcancontinue toundergirdregional security.
However, Obamahasan opportunitywithhisscheduledtriptothe region inApril toreaffirmthe US
role as an honestbrokerinthe region.Removingthe threatof furtherdistractionfrommore fiscal
brinksmanship, Obamahasat leasttemporarilyregained the initiativetobe more active inthe region.
He shouldpressthe alliestoseekgreatercooperationinmaritimesecurity,resolve disputesusing
international forumslikethe WTOand APEC,and proclaimunconditionallythe rightof nationsto
unfetteredfreedomof navigationandcommerce ininternational waters. The UnitedStatesshouldalso
urge SouthKorea andJapan to restarta dialogue focusedonpressingsecurityissues likeNorthKorea’s
nuclearprogramand China’srise,fortheireverincreasingriftoverwarhistoryendangersboththeir
securityandraisesthe likelihoodof adangerousconflictemergingamongtwostalwartUS allies.Finally,
thisshiftback tothe “pivot”cannotbe done withoutthe USconsideringstrategicrealitiesinthe Middle

3. East. Violence andweakgovernmentsare likelytobe fixturesof USconcernsinthat regionforsome
time,andthe US mustdevelopastrategyof containmentthatdecreasesthe chancesof conflagration.In
an atmosphere of tightbudgetsandplentyof threats,itiswise toreconsideraquotationfromGeorge
KennanreflectingonUS leadershipinAsia.“Ourreal taskin the comingperiodistodevise apatternof
relationships,whichwillpermitustomaintainthispositionof disparitywithoutpositivedetrimentto
our national security.Todoso we will have todispense withall sentimentalityanddaydreaming;and
our attentionwill have tobe concentratedeverywhereonourimmediate national objectives.”The US
muststay concentratedonnational intereststhatrequireatonce,immediateactionandallow
maximummaneuverinservice of agreaterstrategyinAsia.