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Avoiding costly pitfalls in
interpreting business
data
COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Course Outline
Lesson 1.
Simple KPIs,
ratios and
subtotals
Lesson 3.
Probability
and risk
Lesson 4.
Association,
correlation
and
regression
Lesson 5.
Data
Gathering
Lesson 2.
Data
visualisation
Lesson 6.
Machine
learning and
AI
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
1. Simple KPIs, ratios
and subtotals
We will cover these potential pitfalls:
• Aggregation without context or drilldown
• Starting with the data instead of starting with
the high value actionable insights
• Inconsistent units of analysis
• KPIs that that don’t drive the right behaviour
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Aggregation without context or drilldown
Explanation / Examples
Aggregation is something that we do
every time we produce a P&L or report
any ratio or metric whatsoever. It has
both advantages and pitfalls:
Advantages:
◦ Allows us to quickly digest, compare
and draw conclusions about a complex
reality.
Pitfalls:
◦ Metrics based on totals, ratios and
averages can be distorted by abnormal
distributions and outliers, and that’s
where the real insights might be
hidden.
◦ Show me some trends and benchmarks
so I can understand context
◦ Show me the performance of the teams
in the top and bottom quartiles.
◦ Show me the performance of the
individuals in the top and bottom 1% ,
regardless of team
◦ What causes this underperformance
and overperformance?
◦ Can we slice & dice the performance by
categories other than team (customer,
supplier, location etc?)
Techniques that preparers
should use
Explore the data using the following
visuals:
◦ trend line,
◦ histogram,
◦ box plot,
◦ principal components analysis (PCA)
◦ scatter-diagram,
◦ pareto charts,
◦ Interactive dashboards with drilldowns,
and slice & dice features
Use the above analysis for your own
insights gathering. Then share only the
actionable insights with your executive
audience.
Examples: Profit, churn, NPS. Essentially any subtotals, ratios, and indices - if presented without context or drilldown.
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Questions a data literate
audience should ask
Starting with the data instead of the
actionable insights
Explanation / Examples
◦ Trying to understand customers by
looking at CRM data only, and not
understanding the customer journey,
segmentation, gain creators, pain
creators, persona and value
proposition.
◦ Building a data warehouse before
identifying KPIs.
Questions a data literate
audience should ask
◦ What insights are we trying to see?
◦ Give me some examples of the
decisions and actions we will take
based on these insights?
◦ What amount of effort is required to
gather, clean, structure and report on
this data?
◦ How much data is going into our data
pipeline without a defined use-case?
Techniques that preparers
should use
◦ Focus first on the insights that have the
highest strategic value.
◦ Understand what data we have but
don’t need, and what data we need but
don’t have.
◦ Build the data pipeline in a manner
that delivers the required insights fast,
but allows for future scaling.
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Inconsistent unit of analysis
Explanation / Examples
◦ Comparing apples with oranges eg.
departments vs locations
◦ Comparing financial results in different
currencies (yes I’ve actually seen people load
different currencies into a data warehouse and not
convert them to a common currency).
◦ Showing long term monetary trends
without adjusting for inflation.
Questions a data literate
audience should ask
◦ Are we comparing locations or
departments?
◦ How did you handle the fluctuations in
exchange rate and inflation between
the beginning and end of the period?
Techniques that preparers
should use
◦ Prepare a data dictionary, with
definitions and names that executives
understand.
◦ Exchange rate fluctuations are best
handled in an ERP system and exported
to a data pipeline as a single,
consolidated currency.
◦ If there is significant inflation during
the period analysed, monetary values
should be converted from nominal to
real values.
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
KPIs that don’t drive the right behaviour
Explanation / Examples
◦ Incentivising the manager of a start-up
business division on profit instead of
growth. The result is that the manager
may maximise profit at the expense of
growth. Over the medium term, the
organisation would have made more
profit if they had focused the manager
on growth in the early years.
Questions a data literate
audience should ask
◦ Are there ways for the people being
measured to improve their KPIs without
improving the organisation's
performance?
◦ If a team is about to fall 5% short of
their annual target, what behaviours
are we likely to see and are they
aligned with our strategy and values?
Techniques that preparers
should use
◦ Have empathetic conversations with
the people who will be measured and
try to understand the implicit
incentives hidden in the measures.
◦ Use value driver analysis and
multivariate regression analysis to find
potential drivers of performance. Then
use A/B testing to validate whether
these are the true drivers.
◦ Use a balanced scorecard to ensure
that one organisational objective is not
sacrificed to maximise another one.
◦ Rather than using top down targets,
gamify performance improvement by
running league tables between teams.
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
Course Progress
Lesson 1
Simple KPIs,
ratios and
subtotals
Lesson 2
Data
visualisation
Lesson 3
Probability
and Risk
Lesson 4
Association,
correlation,
and
regression
Lesson 5
Data
gathering
Lesson 6
Machine
Learning
and AI
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
That wasLesson 1.Subscribe to this
Newsletter for Lessons 2-6.And please
comment to tell me what topics you
would like more detailon
Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights

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Avoiding Costly Pitfalls In Interpreting Business Data.pdf

  • 1. Avoiding costly pitfalls in interpreting business data COMMON SENSE Data Insights Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 2. Course Outline Lesson 1. Simple KPIs, ratios and subtotals Lesson 3. Probability and risk Lesson 4. Association, correlation and regression Lesson 5. Data Gathering Lesson 2. Data visualisation Lesson 6. Machine learning and AI Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 3. 1. Simple KPIs, ratios and subtotals We will cover these potential pitfalls: • Aggregation without context or drilldown • Starting with the data instead of starting with the high value actionable insights • Inconsistent units of analysis • KPIs that that don’t drive the right behaviour Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 4. Aggregation without context or drilldown Explanation / Examples Aggregation is something that we do every time we produce a P&L or report any ratio or metric whatsoever. It has both advantages and pitfalls: Advantages: ◦ Allows us to quickly digest, compare and draw conclusions about a complex reality. Pitfalls: ◦ Metrics based on totals, ratios and averages can be distorted by abnormal distributions and outliers, and that’s where the real insights might be hidden. ◦ Show me some trends and benchmarks so I can understand context ◦ Show me the performance of the teams in the top and bottom quartiles. ◦ Show me the performance of the individuals in the top and bottom 1% , regardless of team ◦ What causes this underperformance and overperformance? ◦ Can we slice & dice the performance by categories other than team (customer, supplier, location etc?) Techniques that preparers should use Explore the data using the following visuals: ◦ trend line, ◦ histogram, ◦ box plot, ◦ principal components analysis (PCA) ◦ scatter-diagram, ◦ pareto charts, ◦ Interactive dashboards with drilldowns, and slice & dice features Use the above analysis for your own insights gathering. Then share only the actionable insights with your executive audience. Examples: Profit, churn, NPS. Essentially any subtotals, ratios, and indices - if presented without context or drilldown. Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights Questions a data literate audience should ask
  • 5. Starting with the data instead of the actionable insights Explanation / Examples ◦ Trying to understand customers by looking at CRM data only, and not understanding the customer journey, segmentation, gain creators, pain creators, persona and value proposition. ◦ Building a data warehouse before identifying KPIs. Questions a data literate audience should ask ◦ What insights are we trying to see? ◦ Give me some examples of the decisions and actions we will take based on these insights? ◦ What amount of effort is required to gather, clean, structure and report on this data? ◦ How much data is going into our data pipeline without a defined use-case? Techniques that preparers should use ◦ Focus first on the insights that have the highest strategic value. ◦ Understand what data we have but don’t need, and what data we need but don’t have. ◦ Build the data pipeline in a manner that delivers the required insights fast, but allows for future scaling. Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 6. Inconsistent unit of analysis Explanation / Examples ◦ Comparing apples with oranges eg. departments vs locations ◦ Comparing financial results in different currencies (yes I’ve actually seen people load different currencies into a data warehouse and not convert them to a common currency). ◦ Showing long term monetary trends without adjusting for inflation. Questions a data literate audience should ask ◦ Are we comparing locations or departments? ◦ How did you handle the fluctuations in exchange rate and inflation between the beginning and end of the period? Techniques that preparers should use ◦ Prepare a data dictionary, with definitions and names that executives understand. ◦ Exchange rate fluctuations are best handled in an ERP system and exported to a data pipeline as a single, consolidated currency. ◦ If there is significant inflation during the period analysed, monetary values should be converted from nominal to real values. Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 7. KPIs that don’t drive the right behaviour Explanation / Examples ◦ Incentivising the manager of a start-up business division on profit instead of growth. The result is that the manager may maximise profit at the expense of growth. Over the medium term, the organisation would have made more profit if they had focused the manager on growth in the early years. Questions a data literate audience should ask ◦ Are there ways for the people being measured to improve their KPIs without improving the organisation's performance? ◦ If a team is about to fall 5% short of their annual target, what behaviours are we likely to see and are they aligned with our strategy and values? Techniques that preparers should use ◦ Have empathetic conversations with the people who will be measured and try to understand the implicit incentives hidden in the measures. ◦ Use value driver analysis and multivariate regression analysis to find potential drivers of performance. Then use A/B testing to validate whether these are the true drivers. ◦ Use a balanced scorecard to ensure that one organisational objective is not sacrificed to maximise another one. ◦ Rather than using top down targets, gamify performance improvement by running league tables between teams. Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 8. Course Progress Lesson 1 Simple KPIs, ratios and subtotals Lesson 2 Data visualisation Lesson 3 Probability and Risk Lesson 4 Association, correlation, and regression Lesson 5 Data gathering Lesson 6 Machine Learning and AI Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights
  • 9. That wasLesson 1.Subscribe to this Newsletter for Lessons 2-6.And please comment to tell me what topics you would like more detailon Subscribe to this Linkedin Newsletter: COMMON SENSE Data Insights