Global Currency Outlook - September 17

CURRENCY
OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER 2017
MARKET
INSIGHT
INTO
GLOBAL
CURRENCIES
moving money for better
USD UNITED STATES
CAD CANADA
GBP UNITED KINGDOM
EUR EURO ZONE
AUD AUSTRALIA
JPY JAPAN
CNY CHINA
NZD NEW ZEALAND
SGD SINGAPORE
CHF SWITZERLAND
PLN POLAND
CZK CZECH REPUBLIC

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED STATES
September2017 EVENTS
August review
A late August sell-off knocked the U.S. dollar to fresh lows. The
dollar tumbled to one and two-year lows versus a basket of
currencies and the euro, respectively, after the Fed’s Jackson
Hole symposium tore open wounds for the U.S. currency.
The Fed’s Wyoming retreat of global central bankers delved
into the topic of “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.” What
it didn’t address was whether the Fed still intended to raise
borrowing rates again this year, while the president of the ECB,
Mario Draghi, kept quiet on the euro’s surge of more than 13%
this year.
„„ U.S. fundamentals appear solid with unemployment at
16‑year lows.
„„ Dollar plagued by the perception of a high bar to another
rate hike this year.
„„ Political volatility in Washington is another source of
dollar negativity.
September risk events and key themes
Things could get worse before they get better for the dollar,
given the daunting lineup of September risk events. The final
month of the third quarter features a Fed meeting, a deadline
for Washington to raise the nation’s debt limit or risk default, a
scenario that would rock global markets, and geopolitical risks.
Tensions between Washington and Pyongyang abated
somewhat but remain elevated. Renewed jitters appear to be
lurking in Afghanistan.
„„ Dollar bulls pin their hopes on the Fed reducing its balance
sheet and keeping a rate hike on the table.
„„ Continued geopolitical tensions would underpin safe havens
like the yen and Swiss franc.
„„ Barring good news from Washington, the path of least
resistance appears lower for the dollar.
ECONOMIC DATA
„„ Base Rate: 1 - 1.25%
„„ Annual GDP: 2.6%
„„ Annual Inflation: 1.5%
„„ Unemployment: 4.3%
„„ Trade Balance: -$43.6bln
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sep 15
Retail
Sales
Sep 1
Nonfarm
Payrolls
Sep 14
CPI
Sep 20
FOMC
Decision
Sep 29
Personal
Spending
Sep 6
Trade
Deficit
Source: Reuters, 2017
JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
EUR/USD (12 MTH)
1.02
1.08
1.14
1.20
S O N D J F M A M J J A
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR JPYAUD NZD SGDCNY CLOSENEXTCHF PLN CZK

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CANADA
August review
Canada’s higher-flying dollar didn’t stray far from multi-year
peaks in August. The Canadian dollar briefly hit one-month
lows in mid-August when geopolitical tensions flared between
the U.S. and North Korea, and steered safe-haven flows to
America’s dollar, the world’s reserve currency.
But bouts of weakness proved limited thanks to the hawkish
outlook for Canadian central-bank policy. Among G-10 nations,
Canada’s was the most recent to raise interest rates. The Bank
of Canada is also perceived at the front of the line to move next
among the big banks. Like a moth to a flame, investors are
often drawn to currencies whose yields are expected to rise.
„„ Canada raised interest rates in July for the first time since 2010.
„„ At 1.2% in July, Canadian inflation inched above 20-month lows.
„„ Markets assign an elevated chance of a BOC rate hike
by October.
On a purely fundamental basis, the outlook is rosy for Canada’s
currency which recently notched July 2015 peaks against its U.S.
rival. Canada’s fast-growing economy has the nation’s central
bank poised to raise lending rates multiple times this year, rivaling
only America’s Federal Reserve. The near certainty of a Canadian
rate hike by year-end contrasts the anything but certain outlook
for Fed policy, boding bullishly for the northern dollar.
Still, vulnerabilities exist, particularly if President Trump follows
through on threats to nix the North American Free Trade
Agreement, or NAFTA, which has been a boon for Canada’s
influential industries. Festering tensions between Washington
and Pyongyang over the latter’s nuclear ambitions also loom as
a downside risk to currencies with close ties to global trade.
„„ Domestic data key for rate-hike prospects.
„„ The BOC could use its Sept. 6 meeting to telegraph an
imminent rate hike on Oct. 25.
„„ Global tensions, if elevated, would pose a downside risk to the C$.
ECONOMIC DATA
„„ Base Rate: 0.75%
„„ Annual Inflation: 1.2%
„„ Trade Balance: -C$3.6bln
CADJOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
Sep 8
Housing
Starts
Sep 6
Employment
Sep 22
CPI
Sep 22
Retail
Sales
Sep 29
GDP
Sep 6
Trade
Balance
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
USD/CAD (12 MTH)
1.22
1.26
1.30
1.34
1.38

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED KINGDOM
ECONOMIC DATA
GBPAugust review
Ahead of the Bank of England’s (BOE) once-a-quarter interest
rate decision on August 03, and release of new economic
forecasts, Sterling recorded year highs of $1.3264 against the
US dollar. British government bond yields and the pound were
on the rise as investors believed an interest rate hike in 2017
was becoming more probable. However, this outlook changed
markedly following the BOE’s announcement that day.
„„ The BOE said it now expects the UK economy to grow by
1.7% this year, down from its May forecast of 1.9%. Given the
weaker outlook, plus Brexit concerns, the BoE also voted 6-2 to
keep interest rates at 0.25%. This was a dovish shift compared
to the 5-3 vote on rates in the bank’s previous meeting in June.
„„ Since August 03, the GBP/USD rate has fallen by 3.7% from
a peak of $1.3264 to a low of $1.2770 (on Aug 24). Over the
same period, GBP/EUR has fallen by 3.3% from €1.1203 to
€1.0836 – its lowest level in 8 years.
A third round of Brexit negotiations take place between
August 28 and 31 before the BOE’s next policy decision on
September 14. Both will be important events for Sterling;
however, traders will probably remain focused on the pound’s
collapse against the Euro ahead of the European Central Bank’s
crucial announcement on September 07.
„„ The GBP/EUR rate is currently trading around the €1.09 to €1.08
range. The last time the pair fell below these levels was in
2009 when it reached a low of €1.0356, and a high of €1.1902.
„„ However, Sterling looks grossly undervalued against the Euro
with many UK importers calling for an overdue correction,
and a recovery back towards €1.12. If the ECB misses market
expectations on Sep 07 then this recovery could materialise.
„„ However, what if it doesn’t and the Euro appreciates even
further? According to HSBC’s forecast the GBP/EUR rate will
be trading at parity in 12 months’ time.
„„ Annual CPI: 2.6%
„„ Trade Balance: £-12.72 bln

NAWAZ ALI, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – UNITED KINGDOM
Sep 7
ECB Monetary Policy
Announcement
Sep 13
UK Unemployment
Wage Growth Data
Sep 20
Federal Reserve Monetary
Policy Announcement
Sep 1
UK Manufacturing
PMI Survey
Sep 5
UK Services
PMI Survey
Sep 14
- UK Retail Sales Data
- BoE Monetary Policy Announcement
Sep 12
UK Inflation
Data
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
GBP/USD (12 MTH)
1.20
1.24
1.28
1.32
1.36

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
EURO ZONE
ECONOMIC DATA
August review
Markets were less enthusiastic about the euro in the absence
of new buying signals from ECB. The eurozone’s economic
outlook remains strong but uncertainty about inflation remains.
The euro’s recent surge, and subdued growth of wages are
clear hurdles to a sustainable pick up of prices. Minutes from
the ECB’s July meeting reported discomfort among central
bankers about recent FX market reactions. Euro bull bets was
slightly squeezed by burgeoning fears of potential dovish stance
of ECB in September.
„„ The ECB reported that central bankers saw the euro’s
summer upsurge as market overshooting, and will be careful
not increase market expectations.
„„ The annual pace of growth in Q2 was revised up from 2.1%
to 2.2%, the highest pace since Q1 2011.
„„ Despite reaching $1.1909 in early August, EUR/USD has
stayed within a narrow range of $1.17-$1.18, with some
temporary dips toward $1.1650.
The key debate for the euro is whether to begin tapering or not.
After Mario Draghi’s comments in late June, most economists
and market watchers are leaning towards a yes, especially since
the ECB president did not contradict this option during the
July meeting. Central bankers are fully aware that a change of
guidance will open a strong new euro environment despite risks
to recent economic improvements.
„„ The ECB will deliver its monetary decision and new
economic forecasts on September 07. A Reuters poll in July
indicated that around 70% of surveyed economists expected
tapering hints.
„„ Tapering signals from ECB would mark the first step of a
new tightening policy in the eurozone and might send EUR/
USD above the psychological threshold of $1.20.
„„ If the ECB put off the decision fearing the recent euro surge
could be a burden for inflation, we may see a correction of
euro toward pre-Sintra levels of $1,13-$1.14.
„„ Policy rate: 0.0%
„„ GDP: 2.2% (annual rate)
„„ Inflation: 1.3% (annual rate)
„„ Trade Balance: €26.6 Bln
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
Sep 15
Q2 wages growth
Eurogroup meeting
Sep 7
ECB rating decision
new economic forecast
Sep 6
Final
Q2 GDP
Sep 24
German parliamentary
election
Sep 22
Flash PMI
survey
Sep 29
Flash
inflation rate
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sep 5
Retail
Sales
GBP/EUR (12 MTH)
1.08
1.12
1.16
1.20

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SWITZERLAND
ECONOMIC DATA
CHF
„„ Base Rate: -0.75%
„„ Annual GDP: 1.1% (Q1)
„„ Annual CPI: 0.1% (July)
„„ Trade Balance: 2.8 Bln (CHF)
August review
The Swiss Franc was subject to volatile swings at the end of
July and through August. Late July saw CHF slide against most
of its G10 peers, and was the only major currency to depreciate
against the weak US Dollar that month. Risk appetite in markets
meant inflows into safe haven assets began to unwind, which
caused EUR/CHF to rise above SFr1.15 - a level not seen since
January 2015. However, August has seen the currency pair cap
its gains and fall 1.4% to the SFr1.13 level again. GBP/CHF has
also dropped 4% in August as renewed demand for the Swiss
Franc resurfaced following its plunge late July.
„„ Amidst global tensions rising from the war of words between
North Korea and the US, safe havens such as CHF briefly
benefited as investors sought less risky assets.
„„ However, CHF gains may have been exacerbated by thin
liquidity in markets due to the summer holidays.
A recurring theme impacting CHF strength appears to be its
sensitivity to global risk events. Ongoing geopolitical tensions
between the US and North Korea, and uncertainties surrounding
Britain’s exit from the European Union, are just two examples which
could create greater demand for the franc. As a result, CHF could
add to its recent gains in August. However, any further news from
the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding policy normalization
is likely to weigh heavily on the Swiss Franc and EUR/CHF
could retest 31-month highs (lows for CHF) closer to SFr1.16.
„„ It is important to note the GDP release on September 5th,
as GDP has steadily increased since the start of the year and
could benefit CHF if the trend continues. However, economic
data from Switzerland in September may be overshadowed
by news from central banks on monetary policy.
„„ The Swiss National Bank has its monetary policy assessment on
September 14th but no change in stance is expected. With other
central banks looking at tightening policy, particularly the ECB and
US Federal Reserve, the resultant monetary policy divergence could
negatively impact the franc. USD/CHF could consequently start to
recoup losses, having tumbled over 6% since the start of the year.
GEORGE VESSEY, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK
Sep 1
Manufacturing
PMI
Sep 5
GDP Q2
Sep 13
Producer and
Import Prices
Sep 21
Trade
Balance
Sep 1
Retail
Sales
Sep 8
Unemployment
Sep 14
SNB Monetary
Policy Decision
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
GBP/CHF (12 MTH)
1.19
1.23
1.27
1.31

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
POLAND
ECONOMIC DATA
PLNAugust review
Political tension in Poland at the end of July, and the overall strength
of the Euro saw the zloty start to move away from the gains it
experienced in the first half of the year against the single currency.
EUR/PLN consistently traded in a narrow range around the 4.2 handle
throughout the month. There were still gains for the zloty though as
it hit its strongest level against GBP since August 2011 and broke
into the 3.5 range against the USD for the first time since May 2015.
„„ The political unrest that was headlining internationally in July has
abated, but investors will be watching the actions and policies
of Poland’s ruling party in parliament, PiS, closely. Any more
outpouring of large public protests or policies being forced into a
Presidential veto may start to cause market uncertainty in the PLN.
„„ Polish GDP continued to be strong, growing by 3.9% y/y in
Q2. This was slightly down from the 4% y/y growth in Q1
but was still a positive outlook for the economy. This keeps
GDP in line with the forecasted annual growth rate of 4%
from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) which puts it in good
company with the other high performing emerging market
countries, such as the Czech Republic and Hungary.
Geo-political tensions began to take less of investors’ focus at
the end of August, which saw see the US Dollar returning to
some strength. With the situation between the US and North
Korea far from resolved there could still be gains for the zloty
against the dollar in September. An expected Angela Merkel
win in the German election could see the PLN continue to fade
away from the strong levels against the euro.
„„ Unemployment remains a concern but this has now fallen
from 7.4% to closer to 7% and has continued to fall from
Januarys 8.6%.
„„ Retail sales had a positive re-bound in July, growing 6.8%
y/y following the previously disappointing number of 5.8%.
Inflation is forecasted to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y so
the NBP is unlikely to move from the base interest rate of
1.5% at least in the short term.
„„ Annual GDP: 3.9% (Q1)
„„ Annual CPI: 1.7% (Jul)
„„ Unemployment: 7.1% (Jul)
„„ Current Account: -179m (May)
ROBERT BATES, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK
Sep 6
NBP Monetary
Policy Decision
Sep 5
Central Bank
FX Reserves
Sep 18
Corporate
Sector Wages
Sep 29
CPI
Sep 25
Unemployment
Number
Sep 1
Purchasing
Manager Index
Sep 19
- Retail Sales
- Industrial Output
- Producer Price Index
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
USD/PLN (12 MTH)
3.50
3.70
3.90
4.10
4.30

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CZECH REPUBLIC
ECONOMIC DATA
August review
The Czech Koruna strengthened at the start of August after the
Czech National Bank (CNB) raised interest rates by 20 basis points
to 0.25%, allowing the Koruna to reach a 4-year high against the
euro of 25.86.
„„ The euro clawed back its losses as speculation grows around
the ECB reducing its quantitative easing policy, with the
EUR/CZK rate settling around the 26.00 level.
„„ The Koruna continued to gain strength against Sterling due
to improved inflation data. Meanwhile, GDP growth reached
an 18 month high of 4.5% - the second straight quarter of
accelerated growth.
„„ EUR/CZK is currently trading at lows which have not been
seen since 2013, while GBP/CZK has fallen to its lowest
since 2011.
Czech Republic GDP and inflation data outstripped forecasts in
August, and many market participants now expect another interest
rate rise this year. However, investors should remain cautious
about increasing divergence between central bank policies, which
could cause the CNB to slow the tightening of their policies.
„„ Sep 01: GDP data release will be monitored closely. The data
will need to at least match forecasts of further rate hikes to
allow the CZK to remain strong.
„„ Sep 11: inflation data will be another indicator. No preliminary
forecasts have been released, but the data will influence
interest rate expectations.
„„ Sep 27: CNB makes its next interest rate decision. After an
interest rate hike in August, the chances of another increase are
slim but any forward guidance will be welcomed by markets.
„„ The European Central Bank (ECB) hosts a monetary policy
meeting on the 7th of September. ECB President Mario
Draghi is expected to announce a possible tapering of the
QE program, and if he disappoints the euro could slip and
allow the Koruna to appreciate. „„ Base rate: 0.25%
„„ Trade Balance: 18.8bln
CZKSHANE SPARKS, CURRENCY ANALYST – UK
Sep 1
GDP
Sep 6
Industrial
Production
Sep 11
Inflation
Sep 27
CNB Interest
rate decision
Sep 8
Unemployment
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sep 7
ECB Monetary
policy meeting
USD/CZK (12 MTH)
21.6
22.8
24.0
25.2
26.4

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
AUSTRALIA
ECONOMIC DATA
AUDAugust review
The Australian dollar fell into a lull in August after a monster run
in the previous two months.
The AUD/USD climbed as much as 9.4% in June and July
producing its best two-month performance since 2010. The
AUD also gained versus most other currencies.
A steep pick-up in commodity prices has been the main driver
of the AUD’s gains. Iron ore, a key export for Australia, has
jumped 30% since mid-June.
„„ An increase in volatility has seen the AUD drift lower over the
month of August. The AUD, with relatively high interest rates,
tends to perform well in low volatility environments.
„„ The AUD was weaker versus low yielding currencies like the
euro and the Japanese yen.
„„ The Australian employment market continued to beat
expectations with 28k new jobs created in July. The
Australian jobs report met or exceeded expectations for five
straight months.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has seen a small incremental
shift in its assessment of the Australian economy but most
analysts believe we are still some time from raising Australian
interest rates.
The RBA next meets on 5 September.
The future of US policy will also be critical. The Federal
Reserve’s next policy meeting is in late September.
„„ Most analysts expect the AUD/USD to give back some of
its recent gains with the Reuters FX Poll, published 30 July
2017, producing a median 12-month forecast of 0.7600.
„„ In terms of data, Australian June-quarter economic growth
figures, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), will
be released on 6 September.
„„ Trade Balance: 900m (AUD)
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
Sep 6
GDP
Sep 7
- Retail Sales
- Trade Balance
Sep 14
Employment
Sep 19
RBA Minutes
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sep 5
RBA
Decision
AUD/USD (12 MTH)
0.70
0.73
0.76
0.79
0.82

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
JAPAN
ECONOMIC DATA
„„ Policy rate: -0.1%
„„ GDP: 2.0% (annual rate)
„„ CPI: 0.4% (annual rate)
„„ Trade Balance: ¥419 Bln
JPYAugust review
Financial markets have been shaky of late. Low liquidity and
a poor monetary agenda in August meant FX markets were
increasingly sensitive to political and geopolitical jolts. Tensions
between US and North Korean officials, multiple departures
from the White House and terrorist attacks in Europe saw many
investors increase their position in safe haven assets like the
Japanese yen.
„„ On August 23, the yen registered a monthly gain of 4.2%
against the pound, 1.3% against the dollar, and 1.1% against
the euro.
„„ President Donald Trump’s dissolution of two business
advisory councils, and the dismissal of strategic advisor
Steve Bannon strengthened market concern about US
economic agenda.
„„ A day after terrorist attacks in Spain the yen rose to a four-
month high against the US dollar (¥108.58), and a two-month
high against the euro (¥127.54) and UK pound (¥139.77).
September could be one a volatile month for the Japanese yen.
After a one month break the “Big Four” central banks – BOE,
BOJ, ECB and Fed – will hold monetary meetings with each
other. Meanwhile US Congress will also come back together to
discuss tax reform and debt ceiling bills. Any tangible results in
the US economic agenda will influence the USD/JPY rate while
tapering signals from ECB could send EUR/JPY up to its July
¥131-132 peaks, although downside risks remain.
„„ Japan’s enduring low inflation environment could force the
BOJ to keep its cap policy on domestic sovereign bond rates,
which would be a downside for the yen.
„„ If the ECB hints at a tapering of its large asset purchases
program, a possible widening of European and Japanese
bond rates would boost the EUR/JPY.
„„ USD/JPY rates remain sensitive to both US and global
politics, while the GBP/JPY will continue to be drive by
ongoing Brexit news.
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
Sep 29
Inflation
Sep 21
BoJ rating
decision
Sep 20
Trade balance
Fed rating decision
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Sep 8
Final
Q2 GDP
Sep 7
ECB rating
decision
Sep 29
Unemployment
Rate
GBP/JPY (12 MTH)
125
131
137
143
149

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CHINA
ECONOMIC DATA
August review
The Chinese yuan climbed to 11-month highs versus the US
dollar as increasing tension through the Korean peninsula saw
funds flow back into the Chinese currency.
Apart from the impact of safe haven flows, two key themes
have driven the Chinese currency’s strength.
First, Chinese growth has continued to bounce back from the
lows seen in early 2016.
Second, worries about capital outflows have eased. This has, in
turn, boosted the CNY, causing capital flows to ease further.
„„ The CNY has seen a step-up in volatility as the Chinese
government becomes more comfortable with the country’s
economic outlook.
„„ The CNY’s strength has seen it near six-month highs
versus the Swiss franc and near 18-month highs versus the
Japanese yen.
The outlook for the Chinese currency has turned significantly
in 2017.
Early in the year, expectations centered on the belief the CNY
would continue lower, partly driven by a stronger US dollar.
Instead, the US dollar has fallen, driven by political uncertainty,
while better growth has also boosted the CNY.
„„ A global growth pick-up has helped maintain economic
expansion at 6.9% --- a two-year high.
„„ Analysts remain divided about the USD/CNY with the
Reuters FX Poll, published 30 July 2017, showing a 22%
range in forecasts. This is a marked change from the mostly
predictable path of the CNY over the last few years.
„„ GDP: 6.90%
„„ CPI: 1.50%
„„ Trade Balance: $40.8bln (USD)
CNYSTEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
Sep 9
CPI
Sep 14
Retail
Sales
Sep 8
Trade
Balance
Sep 14
Industrial
Production
Sep 30
Manufacturing
PMI
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
USD/CNY (12 MTH)
6.60
6.70
6.80
6.90
7.00

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
NEW ZEALAND
ECONOMIC DATA
NZDAugust review
The New Zealand dollar has a tough month in August with
the NZD’s recent gains swiftly reversing. There were two big
reasons for the NZD’s change in fortune.
First, local data has taken a turn for the worse. Over the last
two months, inflation and employment figures have both
missed expectations.
Second, a pick-up in market volatility has unsettled investors.
Like the Australian dollar, the NZ dollar’s relatively high interest
rates make it an attractive investment destination in low
volatility environments.
„„ The shock economic result last month came from the
employment market with job growth falling by 0.2%. The
market had expected a rise of 0.7%.
„„ The NZD’s largest losses were against the low-yielding
currencies like the euro and Japanese yen. A turn in these
markets is often a sign of weakening risk appetite across
market and is often accompanied by a rise in volatility.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has contributed to the NZD’s
recent weakness.
Earlier this year, markets had anticipated a change in policy with
an improvement in NZ economic growth expected to drive the
RBNZ towards rate hikes.
However, the RBNZ has remained resolutely firm in its view
that it would not raise rates until 2019.
In fact, the most recent commentary has indicated the NZ
central bank might stay on hold until 2020.
„„ Technically, the NZD/USD has recently completed a head-
and-shoulders pattern that market analysts suggest could
lead to further losses
„„ With markets turning more nervous on the NZD, this
month’s data will be critical. June quarter growth figures,
due 21 September, will be closely watched.
„„ Trade Balance: $85m (NZD)
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
Sep 21
GDP
Sep 5
Dairy
Prices
Sep 19
Dairy
Prices
Sep 26
Trade
Balance
Sep 1
Terms of
Trade
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
NZD/USD (12 MTH)
0.68
0.70
0.72
0.74
0.76

CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SINGAPORE
ECONOMIC DATA
August review
The Singapore dollar was stronger in August as an improvement
in global growth and trade boosted currencies across Asia.
With a highly globally exposed economy, the SGD is often
driven by trade volumes.
A scaling back in expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes
saw the US dollar weaker and this also boosted the Singapore
dollar. The USD/GSD fell to ten-month lows.
„„ The SGD was helped by a stronger than expected growth
reading with GDP at 2.9% for the year to 30 June 2017.
„„ On the other hand, exports were weaker, with non-oil
exports down 2.5% in July.
The SGD’s strength has seen economists increasingly warn
about action from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Unlike most other central banks, the MAS looks to control the
economy through the management of the Singapore dollar’s
exchange rate.
The recent gains in the SGD can cause inflation and growth –
already below trend – to be pressured further .
„„ Asian currencies across the region have benefited this year
from improved risk appetite. A turn lower in global share
markets could pressure the SGD.
„„ The SGD’s strength remains a key consideration for policy
makers. The MAS next meets in mid-October but can act
earlier if required.
„„ SIBOR: 1.12%
„„ GDP: 2.90%
„„ CPI: 1.60%
„„ Trade Balance: $5.5bln (SGD)
Sep 4
Manufacturing
PMI
Sep 12
Retail
Sales
Sep 18
Exports
Sep 25
CPI
Sep 14
Unemployment
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
SGDSTEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
USD/SGD (12 MTH)
1.34
1.38
1.42
1.46

Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed in this
communication on information generally available to the public. Western Union
Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and
specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions
based on the opinions expressed and information contained in this communication.
Such information and opinions are for general information purposes only and are not
intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
This communication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any
person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its affiliates
to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does
not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you
and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you
before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or
conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication.
© 2017 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved.
ASIA PACIFIC
Australia
In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. In Australia, Custom House Currency Exchange (Australia) Pty Limited
ABN 95 086 278 659 and AFSL 238290 and/or Western Union Business Solutions
(Australia) Pty Limited ABN 24 150 129 749 and AFSL 404092 (collectively referred to
as “WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if any) referred to in
this communication.
A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that
WUBS issues (if any) and can be obtained by visiting our compliance and legal web
page. Unless we expressly state otherwise any information given by WUBS in relation
to financial products will be factual information only and does not take account of your
financial situation, objectives or needs. Because of this, before you act on it (including
making any decision and/or trading) you should consider its appropriateness having
regard to your own objectives, financial situations and/or needs.
Before you decide to acquire a financial product from WUBS you should read and
consider the relevant product disclosure statement.
Hong Kong
In Hong Kong, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. Services in Hong Kong are provided by Western Union Business Solutions
(Hong Kong) Limited (company number 1474270 and CE number BGY438) (“WUBS”).
WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and
Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws
of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in
Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity.
Risk Disclosure Statements
1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may
sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such
as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended
amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may
be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required
funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.
You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore
carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial
position and investment objectives.
2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside
Hong Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant
overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures
Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets
may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held
in Hong Kong.
New Zealand
Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In
New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch
(company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial
products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is
available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by
visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.
Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not
take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this,
before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should
consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation
and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial
advice from an authorised financial adviser.
Singapore
In Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore
are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS
Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS
Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).
WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign
exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly
or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other
form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange
trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing
or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or
other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance
within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).
WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance
services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s
Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS
Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems
(Oversight) Act 2006.
WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be
licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA,
financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money
changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and
Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities
subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore,
save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds
a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.
DISCLAIMERS

DISCLAIMERS
NORTH AMERICA
Canada
In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within
the Western Union Business Solutions division.
USA
In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company.
Services in the US are provided by Custom House USA, LLC (NMLS ID: 906985) and
Western Union Business Solutions (USA), LLC (NMLS ID: 907333) (collectively referred
to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US
state licensing, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional
information about Custom House USA, LLC and Western Union Business Solutions
(USA), LLC, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/compliance/.
EUROPE
Austria
In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union
Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned
subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or
“Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number
FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Czech Republic
In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western
Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union
International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western
Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the
Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification
number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110
00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank
GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht).
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of
banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank.
France
In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary
Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or
“Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094)
has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris
La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
(Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at
Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Germany
In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union
Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned
subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as
“WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of
business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of
Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number
256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria).
Italy
In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company
and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union
International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited
(which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions).
Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service
(online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH,
Italy branch.
Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via
Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration
number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is
a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under
Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office:
Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole
Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of):
Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische
Finanzmarktaufsicht).
Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number:
04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate
Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and
coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK
Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register
reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services
Malta
In Malta, Western Union Business Solutions is an operating division of The Western
Union Company. Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions
(Malta) Limited, a limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with
its registered office at Il-Piazzetta, Tower Road, Sliema, SLM 1605, Malta and which is
licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to undertake the
business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act) (“WUBS”).
Poland
In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank
GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP
No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867
Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
(registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Switzerland
In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss
branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021
Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on
information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions
makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically
disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on
the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and
opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with
respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
United Kingdom
In the UK, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Company. Services in the UK are provided by Custom House Financial (UK) Limited
(which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions) or
Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (collectively referred to as “WUBS”
or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number
04380026, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW) is
authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services
and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue Customs (Registered No: 12140130).
Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company
Number 02854737, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London, EC2A 2AW)
is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 536611) for the provision of payment services
and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue Customs (Registered No: 12122416).

GLOBALOFFICES
United States
Tel: 1 866 953 6491
business.westernunion.com
Canada
Tel: 1 888 987 7612
business.westernunion.ca
United Kingdom
Toll Free: 0800 096 1229
business.westernunion.co.uk
Australia
Tel: +612 8001 2100
business.westernunion.com.au
Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line.
Contact Western Union Business Solutions
www.business.westernunion.com

Global Currency Outlook - September 17

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