This is the slide that used with my Livestream - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHLSDCmltNY

1. Daily Covid-19 Update
24 March 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

2. The next 22 days is likely to sort the curve
of the infection.(UK lock down - 19 days)
However the next 82 days is likely to be
the lifestyle impact. (Wuhan less than 90 days)
#2020iscancelled – Economic impact - V
Shaped recovery for UK property with
little price movement.

3. TODAY

4. USA !!!!!!
• Not Testing
• Under 65 Go Home
• Watch the next 3
weeks. Trump will
be punished for this
by the blood of
everyday Americans

5. Put aside the Virus for a moment.
Imagine we are…

6. Model One – Global Depression
• Three words – Debt, Unemployment and Despair.
• Mass unemployment 30%+
• Massive debt consumer and corporate debt
• Rich buy up al the assets
• Small business dies, only large corporates are left
• Austerity for all, except the rich, 1984/Hunger Games scenario.
• Decade or two lost.
• Worst of all scenarios
• Leaders continue to bailout rich, ignore poor, poor accept that it’s the way it is
and don’t protest, sit down and take it. If they do then they are forcibly stopped.
• System is broken, we all know it, we are just afraid of change. Systems likely
survives.

7. Model Two – U Shaped Recovery
• Two Words – Debt and Unemployment.
• World bogged down in debt for 5 – 10 years.
• Unemployment rate remains high
• Economy must recover before hiring starts, very slow and very
cautious.
• Lost decade for many countries (US, EU, Australia), others fair better
for others (China, Asia, Russia, India).
• System survives, we don’t learn our lesson.

8. Model Three – V Shaped Recovery
• Unlike a war - No buildings destroyed, Young not affected
• Governments stimulate direct to people not corporates and wealthy.
• Unemployment stays low, althought debt funded welfare, bounce back
quickly.
• Politics is set aside and the human tragedy is recognised
• Markets flooded with Liquidity – Inflation – more money cases limited
good and services.
• Markets flooded with Debt – Deflation – Too much debt depresses value of
goods and services.
• Bernie becomes President of US. Otherwise see Model 1.

9. Brett Thoughts
• UK best stimulus so far, by far. Bounce back quicker as people already in jobs.
• Aussies failed so far – unemployment going too high, small business decimated due to loan route,
expecting big business to solve the problems of workers, they won’t, the just sacked them all. U
shaped likely.
• USA definitely failed – Trump more worried about stock market, BS stats, Politicians playing
politics and pandering to lobby groups. Arrogance could drag the world economy into depression.
• Get money into the people’s hands and they will spend it. Ensure if you loan money to big
businesses, they have to pay it back and cannot buy stock with it.
• We can still do V-shaped but unlikely now with USA. U Shaped more likely
• USA fast losing their global leader position, China will take over silently, EU a basket case and
likely will break up further.
• Brexit is looking like a great decision from UK perspective right now.
• Watch currency changes Asia – little stimulus countries vs US, UK, Aussie, Canada big stimulus
packages.
• Watch
• Non-Lock down countries vs Lock down countries
• Early responder countries vs late responder countries.

10. Pivot, to the Opportunity
• Always Winners and Losers.
• You need to find your opportunity,
• Pivot if you have to, retrain if you have to, downsize early,
• Pivot Quickly
• Be the speedboat not the cruise ship.
• Don’t rely on governments to save you, that will end you up with the losers
through this.
• Keep your staff happy!!! – Keep your boss happy!!! Rebound depends on it.
• Review your relationships to life, career, health, finances
• Free Personal Finance Live – Immanuel and Brett
• Free Property For Beginners Webinar
• Success depends not on the past, its behind you, but the future you choose
now!!!