Coronavirus safety suggestion

1. Brandon Willis
853392
RCQ-16468
Safety Evaluation
Coronavirus
Depending on who you are I suppose this is either going to be mildly relieving or a huge
joke. For whatever reason a highly infectious virus that has infected 120,000 people in an
unfathomably short amount of time IS deemed as a joke to some so if you think it is stupid feel
free to hit the TLDR and skip this. With this paper I am basically attempting to show you that it is
a big deal but probably not as big as several media outlets would have you believe. I intend to
cover:
1. What is the Coronavirus?
2. How Does it Spread?
3. How Serious is it?
4. How Do I Protect Myself?
Will I get all of this covered in a detailed and comprehensive manner? Probably not,
however; I will attempt to keep my fun sized attention span reeled in for long enough to write
something that someone, somewhere will derive some sort of information from… or something.
Disclaimer
Obviously, this is an ongoing event and by the time you read this the numbers I have given
may be outdated. I was working on this for about a week and had to change key data points several
times to attempt to keep it as current and relevant as possible. Everything in here is true to the best
of my knowledge, and believe me, my knowledge is vast. If you feel like it, as always check the
sources out. I also have a few PDF documents I have created from research papers (not linked in
sources) if anyone wants to see those hit me up. Please go easy on any writing errors as this is the
fastest I have cranked one of these out. I was working on one of these for a different topic last
week but decided this is something that should be done in an attempt to clear up the overwhelming
amount of misinformation about this topic. Obviously
What is the Coronavirus?
It may surprise you to learn that the Coronavirus is, in fact, a virus. That’s right, I only
cover the most controversial of truths in my writings. Okay cool, it’s a virus. What does that mean?
Well, a virus is essentially a microscopic parasite in the sense that it needs a host body to survive.

2. They can survive outside of a host for about long enough for transmission to occur. They are sort
of alive being that they contain nucleic acids (DNA, RNA) but do not have the ability to act
according to the genetic information written in these nucleic acids. In short; a virus uses its host
cells to replicate.
Gross huh? Well, it gets better. Being that viruses have such a unique way of reproducing;
they are able to do so at a rapid rate. With the ability to multiply fast comes the ability to mutate
faster as well. Mutations in viruses are why they are so hard to kill. By the time science has found
a measure to deal with a strain of a certain virus that’s a month old there is a possibility that viral
mutations have made the measure ineffective. In the same vein a virus could mutate to become
deadlier than it was a week ago. There is even evidence that RNA viruses multiply in a way that
over time makes it harder for your immune system to react to. This paragraph best illustrates why
viruses are not a laughing matter. Realistically this sounds worse than it really is as most viral
mutations result in no noticeable change, but it should still be considered as a possibility with any
virus.
Now that we have an extremely basic idea of what a virus is and what it does let’s take a
closer look at the Coronavirus. Firstly, Coronavirus is a family of viruses. It contains viruses that
cause mild, common-cold like symptoms all the way up to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
(SARS), and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). The family gets its name from the
shape of the cells and NOT from the beer as disappointing as that is. Anyway, the new strain that
is causing such a disturbance recently is actually called Covid-19. C-19 is generally in the middle
ground when it comes to the family of Coronaviruses. It is not as deadly as SARS or MERS but
has spread much faster. Unfortunately, we may never know where exactly it came from. Scientists
believe that it may have originated from an animal and was spread to humans due to viral mutation.
How is it spread?
Well at least this is an easy one to get out. Like most viruses it spreads via respiratory
droplets. That means cover your face when you sneeze and cough, chief. Coronaviruses are
regarded for their ability to survive outside of the body for extended periods of time and C-19 is
no exception. There is evidence that suggests that it can survive in respiratory droplets outside of
the body for 3-5 hours. Another transmission method is, to be as PG as possible, “bodily
secretions.” Guess what? That means wash your hands after you use the restroom, pal.
How serious is it?
The short answer her is; “Probably, kinda serious I guess?” Jokes aside it has the potential
to become quite serious if proper measures are not taken. If we look at China, which is ground
zero for C-19, the country has 80,000 plus confirmed cases with about 3,500 deaths. To save you
the math that’s a 4.4% mortality rate. If you factor global numbers in, we are looking at an overall
mortality rate of about 4% (7,500/188,000 for those who want to check my math, SOURCE 3).
To put that number is perspective the 2018-2019 flu season ended up with a 0.09% mortality rate.
What makes that even crazier is that the 2018-2019 is the worst flu season since 2009 (looking at
you swine flu) which is arguably the worse since the 1918 pandemic.

3. Believe it or not, things look a little more serious if we look at a particular western country.
In Italy there are a confirmed 28,000 cases of C-19. Some of the more attentive readers may have
already deduced that that is about 1/3 of the cases China has. The problem with this is Italy has
nowhere near 1/3 of Chinas population. China is sitting around 1.4 billion while Italy has a poultry
60 million meaning Italy has about 4% or China’s population. While this is a pretty scary statistic,
I do believe I have a conclusive reason for why this this is the case. China is vast, roughly the same
size as the continental U.S. in fact. Italy is like 10² miles larger than Colorado. If you take this
information into account you will find that Italy actually has a higher population density than
China, with 532 people per mi² vs China’s 375 per mi². This does account for why Italy may have
higher confirmed cases but the ratio still seems a bit high. Perhaps there are regional or cultural
factors at play.
To continue on the subject of Italy, a more frightening statistic to look at is the mortality
rate for C-19 there. So far C-19 has killed 2,160 in Italy. If we divide that by the 28,000 confirmed
cases that gives us a ridiculously high 7.7% mortality rate. There could be a number of reasons
why it is so high and there are a number of theories. The reason I believe it to be so high is Italy’s
age discrepancy. While doing research for Italy’s population I learned that about 30% of their
population is 60 years old or older. We will compare this to China again which has about 17%.
This is an important piece of information that I will attempt to delve into next.
Now that we have some general numbers lets look a little closer look at them and have an
attempt at breaking them down. Below is a chart with mortality rates by age.
Age Group Mortality Rate
0-9 0.0
10-39 (All group ranges share rate) 0.2
40-49 0.4
50-59 1.3
60-69 3.6
70-79 8.0
80+ 14.8
Looking at this data it is easy to see how I came to my conclusion on why Italy had such
high mortality rates. If you are 70 or over, or have loved ones that are, please be extra careful and
take precautionary measures whenever possible. Another interesting fact about mortality rates is
that for some unknown reason the mortality rate is far higher in men than women. China reported
a 4.7 mortality rate for men while only a 2.8 mortality rate for women. One last thing I would like
to cover that greatly increases mortality rate for C-19 patients is smoking. According to the Chinese
government the odds of disease progression was 14 times higher in smokers than non-smokers.
These are but a myriad of factors that impact the outcome and treatability of this disease. If you
are an 87-year-old dude who slams down Marlboro 100’s like Patty and Selma from the Simpsons
maybe just stay home when possible.

4. To answer the original question of; “How serious is it?” is nearly impossible. It all depends
on where you are, your risk factors, your loved one’s risk factors, etc. Given all of the facts as they
are presented to me, I believe that you should probably stay home unless you have to leave for
work or grocery shopping. Even if you think it’s a joke you may have at risk loved ones or you
may pass it to a stranger who is at risk or has at risk loved ones. To just ignore this and stay the
course is in my opinion dangerous and selfish. It is this behavior that causes diseases like this to
spread so rapidly.
How do I protect myself?
Luckily this is another easy one. The key factor in protecting yourself from viral infections
is limiting contact. As I stated previously, do not leave your house unless it is out of necessity.
When out and about you can wear a mask. I have heard several people tell me that this is pointless
but honestly, I don’t think they understand virus transmission. While it is true that aerosols can
penetrate the mask fibers the MAIN transmission route for C-19 is respiratory droplets which
cannot. Being that this is the case it would probably be a good idea to wear one if you are sick so
you don’t go spewing your renegade respiratory droplets everywhere without regard. This second
point basically fits into the main overarching point of COVER YOUR MOUTH. Moreover, if you
need to sneeze or cough, do not use your hand to cover your face orifices because, you know, you
touch stuff with them. What you actually need to do when you feel a sneeze or cough coming on
is fling your left hand up across your face like you are “dabbing on the haters” and throw your face
somewhere between your upper bicep and inner elbow. You may now sneeze and cough until your
heart’s content.
Another good practice to prevent disease transmission from yourself to others is of course
washing your hands. If you are worried that other are not practicing this sacred art of human
hygiene feel free to wash your hands after interactions with others. The key in preventing this
method of transmission is for everyone to keep their hands nice and clean. What that means
basically is that EVERYONE needs to was their hands to help keep you from getting sick, so
STOP BUYING ALL OF THE SOAP AND HAND SANITIZER because if you have it all, how
will anyone else do it?
Lastly, of course is isolation. While I understand that quarantining yourself in your house
for extended periods of time requires a vast amount of supplies, there is no need to buy literally all
of the toilet paper you come across. While this is a relatively serious affliction it is not the zombie
apocalypse and the likelihood that it will escalate to that is looking slimmer by the day. Buy a
megapack and move on please. I know that in a perfect world 100% isolation would be ideal but I
am trying to come up with REASONABLE ways to do this, and the fact is that there is not enough
canned goods and toilet paper for everyone in the world to stockpile a months’ worth so look at
this argument with a modicum of logic and reason. To put a bow on this one is isolate within

5. reason. Don’t leave your house for extracurricular activities, but if you follow all of the other
precautionary measures you should be fine to carry out your essential duties.
Some observations and junk (Feel Free to skip)
Researching this paper has got to be one of the most infuriating things I have ever done. It
seems bizarre to me that something as serious as deciding how we as a nation will respond to a
potential pandemic would be split between something as innocuous as party lines. I had to siphon
through pages of google search results stating things such as “The liberal media using coronavirus
to win election?” or “Conservative delusion about coronavirus.” Call me an idealist but maybe
could we not do this? The thing that bothers me about this and frankly is the only reason I put this
here is because I personally know people who think what they do about this virus because of their
political affiliation. Please do your own research in matters this serious. That, I believe, is enough
to make trying time like this better for everyone.
TLDR:
The coronavirus is something that should be taken seriously and not ignored. The best defense
against the coronavirus is to keep good hygiene habits and self-isolate, especially when you are
sick or have high risk loved ones.

6. 1. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07190-7
3. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
4. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
5. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
6. http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-03/17/c_77822.htm (English setting top task bar)
7. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/sources-updated
8. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/home.html (English setting top right corner)