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PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
OF
PHARMANAUTICAL
COMAPNIES
SUBMITTED BY:
Name Roll No
Ankit Agrawal 20194410
Biplov Roy 20191029
Javed Faras M20191562
Prakhar Malot 20192236
Abhishek
Bhandari
20194407
Yash R. Atkare 20192262
Vaidehi Parihar 20192259
Kuldeep Shahi 20192222
SUBMITTED TO:
Prof. Amey Sane
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Industry Overview
 India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally. Indian
pharmaceutical sector supplies over 50 per cent of global demand
for various vaccines, 40 per cent of generic demand in the US and
25 per cent of all medicine in the UK.
 India's biotechnology industry comprising biopharmaceuticals,
bio-services, bio-agriculture, bio-industry, and bioinformatics is
expected grow at an average growth rate of around 30 per cent a
y-o-y to reach US$ 100 billion by 2025.
 Pharmaceutical export includes bulk drugs, intermediates, drug
formulations, biologicals, Ayush and herbal products and
surgical.
SWOT Analysis of the Industry
The SWOT analysis of the industry reveals the position of the
Indian pharma industry in respect to its internal and external
environment.
Strengths:
 Indian with a population of over a billion is a largely untapped
market. In fact the penetration of modern medicine is less than
30% in India. To put things in perspective, per capita
expenditure on health care in India is US$ 93 while the same
for countries like Brazil is US$ 453 and Malaysia US$189.
 The growth of middle class in the country has resulted in fast
changing lifestyles in urban and to some extent rural centers.
This opens a huge market for lifestyle drugs, which has a very
low contribution in the Indian markets.
 Indian manufacturers are one of the lowest cost producers of
drugs in the world. With a scalable labor force, Indian
manufactures can produce drugs at 40% to 50% of the cost to
the rest of the world. In some cases, this cost is as low as 90%.
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 Indian pharmaceutical industry posses excellent chemistry and
process reengineering skills. This adds to the competitive
advantage of the Indian companies. The strength in chemistry
skill help Indian companies to develop processes, which are
cost effective.
Weakness:
 The Indian pharma companies are marred by the price
regulation. Over a period of time, this regulation has reduced
the pricing ability of companies. The NPPA (National Pharma
Pricing Authority), which is the authority to decide the various
pricing parameters, sets prices of different drugs, which leads
to lower profitability for the companies. The companies, which
are lowest cost producers, are at advantage while those who
cannot produce have either to stop production or bear losses.
 Indian pharma sector has been marred by lack of product
patent, which prevents global pharma companies to introduce
new drugs in the country and discourages innovation and drug
discovery. But this has provided an upper hand to the Indian
pharma companies.
 Indian pharma market is one of the least penetrated in the
world. However, growth has been slow to come by. As a result,
Indian majors are relying on exports for growth. To put things
in to perspective, India accounts for almost 16% of the world
population while the total size of industry is just 1% of the
global pharma industry.
 Due to very low barriers to entry, Indian pharma industry is
highly fragmented with about 300 large manufacturing units
and about 18,000 small units spread across the country. This
makes Indian pharma market increasingly competitive. The
industry witnesses price competition, which reduces the growth
of the industry in value term. To put things in perspective, in
the year 2003, the industry actually grew by 10.4% but due to
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price competition, the growth in value terms was 8.2% (prices
actually declined by 2.2%)
Opportunities:
 The migration into a product patent-based regime is likely to
transform industry fortunes in the long term. The new patent
product regime will bring with its new innovative drugs. This
will increase the profitability of MNC Pharma Company and
will force domestic pharma companies to focus more on R&D.
This migration could result in consolidation as well. Very small
players may not be able to cope up with the challenging
environment and may succumb to giants.
 Large number of drugs going off-patent in Europe and in the
US between 2005 to 2009 offers a big opportunity for the
Indian companies to capture this market. Since generic drugs
are commodities by nature, Indian producers have the
competitive advantage, as they are the lowest cost producers of
drugs in the world.
 Opening up of health insurance sector and the expected growth
in per capita income are key growth drivers from a long-term
perspective. This leads to the expansion of healthcare industry
of which pharma industry is an integral part.
 Being the lowest cost producer combined
with USFDA approved plants, Indian companies can become a
global outsourcing hub for pharmaceutical products.
Threats:
 There are certain concerns over the patent regime regarding its
current structure. It might be possible that the new government
may change certain provisions of the patent act formulated by the
preceding government.
 Threats from other low-cost countries like China and Israel exist.
However, on the quality front, India is better placed relative to
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China. So, differentiation in the contract manufacturing side may
wane.
 The short-term threat for the pharma industry is the uncertainty
regarding the implementation of VAT. Though this is likely to
have a negative impact in the short-term, the implications over
the long-term are positive for the industry.
Industry Pestle Analysis
Political:
 Government initiatives push health education.
 Government subsidies and tax waiver for healthcare companies.
 Unforeseen political policy may hamper market growth.
 Political agendas affect budget allocation to healthcare.
Economic:
 Emerging markets attracting investments.
 Reduction in consumer disposable income affects treatment.
 Inflation and changing interest rates affect market growth.
 Drug prices are also affected by health of the economy.
Social:
 Aging global population.
 Lifestyle patterns increases incidences of obesity, cancer and
diabetes.
 Rising health awareness and education.
Technological:
 Internet penetration making consumer aware of treatment with
innovative drugs
 New information and communication technologies
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 Social media for healthcare
 Customized treatments
Legal:
 Regulation on pharmaceutical drugs.
 Import –export custom duties on pharmaceutical drugs.
 Consumer protection laws.
 Health insurance regulations.
Environmental:
 Increase of pollution
 Natural disasters pose disease outbreak risk.
 Rise in incidences of hospital infected viruses.
Why Selected Pharmaceutical Industry?
 Low cost of production and R&D boost efficiency of Indian
Pharma companies. leading to competitive export.
 High economic growth along with increasing penetration of
health insurance to push expenditure on health care and medical
in India.
 Pharma vision 2020 is aimed at making India a global leader in
end-to-end drug manufacturing.
 In Pharma sector, 100% Foreign Direct Investment is allowed
under the automatic route.
Why Selected Eris Lifesciences & Granules?
 Both companies were in news regarding homogeneous
production of medicine with in India with lesser imports of raw
material from outside or no imports of raw material from out of
the country, this would give rise to make in India initiative and
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can possibly increase the share price of this companies in shorter
period itself resulting higher gains.
 New development was not expected in other companies as we
went through the recent trends and analysis of this industry
segment. Better use of R&D was expected in this companies and
better growth could be expected from these two comparing other
companies of same industry.
ERIS LIFESCIENCES- COMPANY OVERVIEW
Eris Lifesciences founded by Mr Amit Bakshi and team in 2007
is one of the fastest growing companies within the chronic and
acute categories of the Indian Branded Formulations market such
as: cardiovascular; anti–diabetes; vitamins; gastroenterology and
gynaecology.
developing, manufacturing and marketing products which are
linked to lifestyle related disorders that are chronic in nature and
are treated by super specialist and specialist doctors.
Eris features amongst the Top 30 companies in the Indian
Branded Formulations Market.
Eris Lifesciences is an Ahmedabad-based pharma company
which was incorporated in January, 2007.
The company develops, manufactures and commercialises
branded pharmaceutical products for chronic lifestyle disorders
with a complete focus on domestic market.
It owns and operates a manufacturing facility in Guwahati, Assam
7 | P a g e
and also outsources the manufacturing of certain products to 20
third party manufacturers.
The company's top 10 brands have leading market share
positions, while 10 mother brands represent 72.5% of its
revenues.
Lead Managers: Axis Capital, Citigroup Global Markets India
and Credit Suisse Securities (India)
 Ranked 32nd, the pharma major is one of the fastest growing
pharma companies in Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) and
has gained 0.7% market share.
 Company's margin profile is far superior to its peers, who have
highest domestic exposure. It has consistently seen return on
equity greater than 30% in the last five years.
 We believe that Eris is likely to continue growing faster than its
competitors owing to its marketing capability, higher operating
leverage and growing market share of its mother brands.
ERIC LIFE SCIENCE SWOT ANALYSIS
Strength
• Bullish Engulfing Pattern
• Company with Low Debt
• Company with Zero Promoter Pledge
• Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (QoQ)
Weakness
• MACD Crossed below line previous end of the day
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Opportunities
• Negative to Positive growth in Sales and Profit with Strong Price
momentum
• Positive Breakout Second Resistance
Threats
• Negative to Positive growth in Sales and Profit with Strong Price
momentum
• Positive Breakout Second Resistance
GRANULES INDIA LTD. OVERVIEW
Granules India Limited is a pharmaceutical company with presence
across the pharmaceutical manufacturing value chain, including active
pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), pharmaceutical formulation
intermediaries (PFIs) and finished dosages (FDs).
The Company's business operations include three areas: core business,
emerging business, and contract research and manufacturing services
(CRAMS). Its products in Core business include Paracetamol,
Ibuprofen, Guaifenesin and Metformin.
The Company operates a healthcare division, Granules Consumer
Healthcare (GCH). The Company, through an acquisition, has access
to over 10 APIs, as well as intermediates in therapeutic categories, such
as anti-histaminic, antihypertensive and anti-convulsant.
The Company's PFI products include Compresso PAP 97 S, Compresso
PAP 90 CPC and Paracetamol Caffeine Combo 77.4. The Company's
FDs include Paracetamol/Acetaminophen, and Acetaminophen and
Methocarbamol.
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Granules India was formed in 1984 as Triton Laboratories. In 1995,
Granules became a public company, after having initial public
offerings on the Bombay and Hyderabad Stock Exchanges.
GRANULES INDIA LTD.SWOT ANALYSIS
Strength
• Good quarterly growth in the recent results
• Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity
• Company with Low Debt
• New 52 Week High
Weakness
• Promoter decreasing their shareholding
• Highest promoter stock pledges
Opportunities
• Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past 3
months
• Positive Breakout Third Resistance
• RSI indicating price strength
• High Volume, High Gain
Threats
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• Stocks with Expensive Valuations according
• to the Trend line Valuation Score.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a security in an
attempt to measure its intrinsic value, by examining related
economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors.
It is necessary as it gives a clear picture of the company’s
profitability and the running of the company.
We have considered three sets of ratios:
1.Profitability Ratios
2.Liquidity Ratios
3.Efficiency Ratios
Profitability Ratio
 Profitability ratios are metrics that assess a company's ability to
generate income relative to its revenue, operating costs, balance
sheet assets, or shareholders' equity.
 Profitability ratios show how efficiently a company generates
profit and value for shareholders.
 Higher ratio results are often more favorable, but ratios provide
much more information when compared to results of similar
companies, the company's own historical performance, or the
industry average.
1. Return on asset
 Return on Assets (ROA) is an indicator of how well a company
utilizes its assets, by determining how profitable a company is
relative to its total assets.
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 ROA is best used when comparing similar companies or
comparing a company to its previous performance.
 ROA takes into account a company’s debt, unlike other metrics,
such as Return on Equity (ROE).
 As we can see the return on asset for Eris lifesciences is greater
than granules India but if we look at y-o-y growth we can see
there is decline of 40% Eris lifesciences in comparison too
Granules India which shows upward trend but still the return on
assets for Eris lifesciences are still double as compare to granules
India so the investors should still consider Eris lifesciences over
granules India.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIS Lifesciences
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Granules India Ltd
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2. Return on Capital Employed
 Return on capital employed is a financial ratio that measures a
company’s profitability in terms of all of its capital.
 Return on capital employed is similar to return on invested
capital (ROCE).
 Many companies may calculate the following key return ratios in
their performance analysis: return on equity (ROE), return on
assets (ROA), return on invested capital (ROIC), and return on
capital employed.
 As we can see return on capital employed for the companies is
decreasing but in terms of using its capital efficiently Eris
lifesciences has been better company in term of performance. But
still we can in invest in both the companies as both have above
15% which is a good number.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIS Lifesciences
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3. Earnings per share
 Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the
number of common shares it has outstanding.
 EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share
of its stock and is a widely used metric for corporate profits.
 A higher EPS indicates more value because investors will pay
more for a company with higher profits.
 EPS can be arrived at in several forms, such as excluding
extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted
basis.
 As we can see EPS for Granules India and Eris lifesciences is 13
and 21 respectively and have quiet good earnings and seem
reasonable for the investors.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Granules India Ltd
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIS Lifesciences
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4. Net Profit Margin
 Net profit margin is equal to how much net income is generated
as a percentage of revenue.
 Net profit margin helps investors assess if a company's
management is generating enough profit from its sales and
whether operating costs and overhead costs are being contained.
 Net profit margin is one of the most important indicators of a
company's financial health.
 As per the chart the Net profit margin for Eris has decreased over
the year but still margin is high so it still has potential for the
investors and granules has also increased over the time which
becomes an opportunity for the investors to invest.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Granules India Ltd
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5. Gross profit Margin
 Gross profit margin is an analytical metric expressed as a
company's net sales minus the cost of goods sold (COGS).
 Gross profit margin is often shown as the gross profit as a
percentage of net sales.
 The gross profit margin shows the amount of profit made before
deducting selling, general, and administrative costs, which is the
firm's Net Profit Margin.
 As we can see both the company has good gross margin which
show companies has effective management which is able to
generate huge margin before expenses which is good indication
for any companies. High margin show company ability to pay its
creditors and shareholders consistency.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIS Lifesciences
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Granules India Ltd
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Liquidity Ratios
Liquidity ratios determine a company's ability to cover short-term
obligations and cash flows. They are an important class of financial
metrics used to determine a debtor's ability to pay off current debt
obligations without raising external capital.
1. Current Ratio: The current ratio indicates a company's ability to
meet short-term debt obligations. The current ratio measures
whether or not a firm has enough resources to pay its debts over
the next 12 months. Potential creditors use this ratio in
determining whether or not to make short-term loans.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIS Lifesciences
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Granules India Ltd
17 | P a g e
 The current ratio of Granules for March 2020 is 1.74 which
means that the business has enough cash to be able to pay
its debts.
 The current ratio of Eris Lifesciences for March 2020 is 3
which means that the company may not be using its current
assets or its short-term financing facilities efficiently. This
may also indicate problems in its working capital
management.
GRANULES
ERIC LIFE SCIENCE
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Quick Ratio: The quick ratio is an indicator of a company’s short-
term liquidity position and measures a company’s ability to meet its
short-term obligations with its most liquid assets
 The quick ratio of Granules for March 2020 is 1.33 which
means that the business has enough current assets to cover
their existing amount of near-term debt.
 The quick ratio of Eris Lifesciences for March 2020 is 3
which means that the business have $3 of their quick assets
available to cover each $1 of its current liabilities. But this
also indicates that business is actually may not be making
effective use of your cash to grow your business.
GRANULES
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Efficiency Ratio
GRANULES INDIA LTD
PARTICULARS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ERIC LIFE SCIENCE
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ASSET TURNOVER
RATIO 0.86 0.75 0.63 0.76 0.78
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
DEBTOR TURNOVER
RATIO 3.61 3.38 2.68 3.38 3.54
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
INVENTORY
TURNOVER RATIO 3.18 2.75 3.44 3.95 3.26
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
years
asset turnover ratio
0
1
2
3
4
5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AxisTitle
years
inventory turnover ratio
21 | P a g e
ERIS LIFESCIENCES LTD
PARTICULARS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ASSET TURNOVER
RATIO 1.5 1.08 0.6 0.65 0.69
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
DEBTOR TURNOVER
RATIO 22 15 13 12 7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
INVENTORY
TURNOVER RATIO 1.93 2.08 2.26 2.12 2.26
0
1
2
3
4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AxisTitle
years
debtor turnover ratio
22 | P a g e
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
years
asset turnover ratio
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AxisTitle
years
inventory turnover ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AxisTitle
years
debtor turnover ratio
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CANDLE STICK ANALYSIS
In technical analysis, a candlestick pattern is a movement in prices
shown graphically on a candlestick chart that some believe can predict
a particular market movement. The recognition of the pattern is
subjective and programs that are used for charting have to rely on
predefined rules to match the pattern. There are 42 recognized patterns
that can be split into simple and complex patterns.
Some of the earliest technical trading analysis was used to track prices
of rice in the 18th century. Much of the credit for candlestick charting
goes to Munehisa Homma (1724–1803), a rice merchant
from Sakata, Japan who traded in the Ojima Rice market
in Osaka during the Tokugawa Shogun ate. According to Steve Nison,
however, candlestick charting came later, probably beginning after
1850
Candlesticks are graphical representations of price movements for a
given period of time. They are commonly formed by the opening, high,
low, and closing prices of a financial instrument.
If the opening price is above the closing price then a filled (normally
red or black) candlestick is drawn.
If the closing price is above the opening price, then normally a green
or a hollow candlestick (white with black outline) is shown.
The filled or hollow portion of the candle is known as the body or real
body, and can be long, normal, or short depending on its proportion to
the lines above or below it.
The lines above and below, known as shadows, tails,
or wicks represent the high and low price ranges within a specified time
period. However, not all candlesticks have shadows.
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1. THREE BLACK CROWS
2. THREE WHITE SOLDIERS
3. ENGULFING BULLISH
4. BULLISH HARAMI
5. PIERCING LINE
6. SHOOTING STAR
7. DOJI STAR
THREE BLACK CROWS
THREE WHITE SOLDIERS
ENGLUFING BULLISH
Graphs are in PPT
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BULLISH HARAMI
PIERCING LINE
SHOOTING STAR
DOJI STAR
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The technical analysis of stocks and trends attempts to predict future
price movements, providing traders with the information needed to
make a profit. Traders apply technical analysis tools to charts in order
to identify entry and exit points for potential trades. An underlying
assumption of the technical analysis of stocks and trends is that the
market has processed all available information and that it is reflected
in the pricing chart.
We have analyzed the following technical indicators:
1. Bollinger Bands
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
3. Stochastic
4. Ichimoku Cloud
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
6. Parabolic SAR
7. Average Directional Index
BOLLINGER BAND CHART ANALYSIS
A Bollinger Band is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of
trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively)
away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price, but
which can be adjusted to user preferences.
Bollinger Bands® were developed and copyrighted by famous
technical trader John Bollinger, designed to discover opportunities that
Graphs are in PPT
27 | P a g e
give investors a higher probability of properly identifying when an
asset is oversold or overbought
For a given data set, the standard deviation measures how spread out
numbers are from an average value. Standard deviation can be
calculated by taking the square root of the variance, which itself is the
average of the squared differences of the mean. Next, multiply that
standard deviation value by two and both add and subtract that amount
from each point along the SMA. Those produce the upper and lower
bands.
Bollinger Bands® are a highly popular technique. Many traders believe
the closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the
market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the
more oversold the market.
BOLLINGER BAND CHART OF GRANULES INDIA LTD
The stocks of granules India ltd has high volatility in period of June and
July as there is a huge gap between upper and lower band of the chart.
However, at the end of august both the bands are closer to the standard
deviation line which suggests that the prices of stocks are getting stable
and there is a steady increase in the prices. The closer they move less
volatile the stock is becoming. In between the standard deviation is
moving towards the upper band which suggest that market is
overbought thus increasing the stock prices.
BOLLINGER BAND CHART OF ERIS LIFESCIENCES
The stocks of ERIS lifesciences has high volatility as there is a huge
gap between upper and lower bands of the chart. However, standard
deviation is closer to lower band of the chart which suggest that stocks
has been oversold and thus there has been slight decrease in the stock
prices. At the end of the august both the bands are moving closer to
each other which suggests that there has been stability in the prices of
28 | P a g e
stock owing to the increasing demand of pharma sector in covid
pandemic.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-
following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between
two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by
subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from
the 12-period EMA.
The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of
the MACD called the "signal line," is then plotted on top of the MACD
line, which can function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. Traders
may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its signal line and
sell - or short - the security when the MACD crosses below the signal
line. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators
can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods
are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls.
The Formula for MACD Is:
MACD =12-Period EMA - 26-Period EMA.
MACD is calculated by subtracting the long-term EMA (26 periods)
from the short-term EMA (12 periods). An exponential moving average
(EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight
and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential
moving average is also referred to as the
exponentially weighted moving average. An exponentially weighted
moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than
a simple moving average (SMA), which applies an equal weight to all
observations in the period.
 MACD triggers technical signals when it crosses above (to buy)
or below (to sell) its signal line.
29 | P a g e
 The speed of crossovers is also taken as a signal of a market is
overbought or oversold.
 MACD helps investors understand whether the bullish or bearish
movement in the price is strengthening or weakening.
Stochastic
 The STOCHASTIC indicator shows us information about
momentum and trend strength. As we will see shortly, the
indicator analyses price movements and tells us how fast and how
strong the price moves.
 This is a quote from George Lane, the inventor of the
STOCHASTIC indicator:
 “Stochastics measures the momentum of price. If you visualize a
rocket going up in the air – before it can turn down, it must slow
down. Momentum always changes direction before price.”
– George Lane, the developer of the Stochastic indicator.
 According to stochastic indicator the Eris life science is showing
a neutral to slightly negative parameter, so the stock is less
volatile and is trading not on a higher scale.
 According to stochastic indicator the Granules is showing a
bearish market nearly to 80%, which indicates that the stock is
overbought.
Ichimoku Cloud
The Ichimoku Cloud is a type of chart used in technical analysis to
display support and resistance, momentum, and trend in one view.
TenkanSen and KijunSen are similar to moving averages and analyzed
in relationship to one another. When the shorter-term indicator,
TenkanSen, rises above the longer-term indicator, KijunSen, the
30 | P a g e
securities trend is typically positive. When TenkanSen falls below
KijunSen, the securities trend is typically negative. TenkanSen and
KijunSen as a group are then analyzed in relationship to the Cloud,
which is composed of the area between Senkou A and Senkou B.
 When TenkanSen and KijunSen are decidedly above the Cloud, the
issue's trend is positive.
 When TenkanSen and KijunSen are decidedly below the Cloud, the
issue's trend is negative.
 Using the Cloud to determine trend:
1. When prices are above the cloud, the trend is up. When prices
are below the cloud, the trend is down.
2. When Senkou A is rising and above Senkou B, the uptrend is
strengthening. When Senkou A is falling and below Senkou B, the
downtrend is strengthening.
 A buy signal is reinforced when the Tenkan Sen crosses above the
Kijun Sen while the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and price are all above
the cloud.
 A sell signal is reinforced when the TenKan Sen crosses below the
Kijun Sen while the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and price are all below
the cloud.
As per the chart of our core companies Eris lifesciences and
granules India ltd.
As we can see in the chart of granules India ltd for the current quarter
the chart has shown an upward trend from Early July as we can see
Tenkansen and kijunsen are above the cloud which show the prices are
currently positive. As we can see the uptrend has strengthen over the
period which means the Senkou A is above Senkou B in the current
chart. As we can see the Tenkansen is above Kijunsen which show a
buy signal for the investors. And seeing the trend upward the cloud is
below the stock prices.
As per the chart the Eris lifesciences has seen downward trend from
June starting which means the kijunsen was above the tenkansen which
31 | P a g e
shows sell signal for the investors as the cloud are above the issue
prices. After a month the trend changed the Tenkansen was seen above
the kijunsen which means the trend is moving upward which shows the
stock is strengthening towards uptrend and which signal the investors
to buy the stocks.
RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in
technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes
to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or
other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that
moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100.
The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and
introduced in his seminal 1978 book, "New Concepts in Technical
Trading Systems."
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or
above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued
and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price.
An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold
or undervalued condition.
 The RSI Indicator shown in Eris Lifesciences is showing negative
that means this stock has been oversold and there is high chance
that market will correct its value and its price will go high.
 The RSI Indicator shown in Granules is above 80%, which
indicates that the stock is overbought and there is a high chance
that market will re calculate the value and the stock price will
come down.
Parabolic SAR
It is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an
asset, as well as draw attention to when the price direction is changing.
Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic
32 | P a g e
SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of the relative
strength index (RSI).
Parabolic SAR attempts to give traders an edge by highlighting the
direction an asset is moving, as well as providing entry and exit points.
While used to gauge a stock's direction and for placing stop-loss
orders.
In a chart, the indicator appears as a series of dots placed either above
or below the price bars. A dot below the price is deemed to be a
bullish signal. Conversely, a dot above the price is used to illustrate
that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain
downward. When the dots flip, it indicates that a potential change in
price direction is under way. For example, if the dots are above the
price, when they flip below the price, it could signal a further rise in
price.
As the price of a stock rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly and
then picking up speed and accelerating with the trend. The SAR starts
to move a little faster as the trend develops, and the dots soon catch up
to the price.
The following chart shows that the indicator works well for capturing
profits during a trend, but it can lead to many false signals when the
price moves sideways or is trading in a choppy market (that means
where the trend is not present in market). The indicator would have
kept the trader in the trade while the price rose. When the price is
moving sideways, the trader should expect more losses and/or small
profits.
33 | P a g e
The following chart shows a downtrend, and the indicator would have
kept the trader in a short trade (or out of longs) until the pullbacks to
the upside began. When the downtrend resumed, the indicator got the
trader back in.
The parabolic SAR is also a method for setting stop-loss orders. When
a stock is rising, move the stop-loss to match the parabolic SAR
indicator. The same concept applies to a short trade—as the price falls,
so will the indicator. Move the stop-loss to match the level of the
indicator after every price bar.
34 | P a g e
This indicator is mechanical and will always be giving new signals to
get long or short. It is up to the trader to determine which trades to take
and which to leave alone. For example, during a downtrend, it is better
to take only the short sales like those shown in the chart above, as
opposed to taking the buy signals as well.
The parabolic SAR performs best in markets with a steady trend. In
ranging markets, the parabolic SAR tends to whipsaw back and forth,
generating false trading signals.
The parabolic SAR is 'always on,' and constantly generating signals,
whether there is a quality trend or not. Therefore, many signals may be
of poor quality because no significant trend is present or develops
following a signal.
The basic use of parabolic SAR is to buy when the dots move below
the price bar – signalling an uptrend and sell or short sell when the dots
move above the price bars signalling a downtrend. This results in
constant trade signals as the trader will always have the position.
Though there is the positive movement on the day but since the market
are steady hence it would be difficult for trader to detect the trend as
multiple trade signals are there for ERIS life sciences. Hence other tools
like moving averages should be included to detect the trend.
35 | P a g e
Taking about the parabolic SAR condition of the market is bearish on
the day but there is positive and good trend in the market. Hence there
is a uptrend singling to buy
36 | P a g e
Average Directional Index
The average directional index (ADX) is a technical analysis
indicator which was developed in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder. It is used
by traders to determine the strength of a trend. The trend can be either
up or down, and this is shown by two accompanying indicators, the
Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and the Positive Directional
Indicator (+DI). Therefore, ADX commonly includes three separate
lines.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) along with the Negative
Directional Indicator (-DI) and the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI)
are momentum indicators. The ADX helps investors determine trend
strength while -DI and +DI help determine trend direction. ADX will
range between 0 and 100. Time period generally considered is 14 days.
The ADX identifies a strong trend when the ADX is over 25 and a weak
trend when the ADX is below 20.
Crossovers of the -DI and +DI lines can be used to generate trade
signals. For example, if the +DI line crosses above the -DI line and the
ADX is above 20, or ideally above 25, then that is a potential signal to
buy. If the -DI crosses above the +DI, and ADX is above 20 or 25, then
that is an opportunity to enter a potential short trade. Crosses can also
be used to exit current trades. For example, if long, exit when the -DI
crosses above the +DI. When ADX is below 20 the indicator is
signaling that the price is trendless, and therefore may not be an ideal
time to enter a trade.
For Granules, the ADX is above 25 which means there is a strong trend.
The +DI is above -DI, which means the price of the stock is moving up
and it shows the bullish trend of the stock. Hence investors are advised
to buy the shares.
For Eric Lifesciences, the ADX is above 25 which means there is a
strong trend. The +DI is below -DI, which means the price of the stock
is moving down and it shows a mild bearish trend of the stock. Hence
investors are advised to sell the shares.
37 | P a g e
38 | P a g e
Portfolio
CORE
Company
Purchase
Price Quantity
Total Investment
Value
Selling
Price
Total Sell
Value Returns
Granules
India 317.4 300 95220 348.15 104445 9225
Eris Life 532.5 200 106500 500.9 100180 -6320
Total Return 2905
Company
Purchase
Price Quantity
Total
Investment
Value Selling Price
Total Sell
Value Returns
Divi lab 3090 15 46350 3230.1 48451.5 2101.5
cipla 728.65 50 36432.5 725.45 36272.5 -160
glenmark 471.3 100 47130 477.1 47710 580
Dr reddy 4573.6 10 45736 4433.15 44331.5 -1404.5
Aurobindo
pharma ltd 944.8 25 23620 807.75 20193.75 -3426.25
Total -2309.25
Customised
Company
Purchase
Price Quantity
Total Investment
Value
Selling
Price
Total Sell
Value Returns
Wipro 279.65 200 55930 276.7 55340 -590
Adani Green
Ene 341.6 50 17080 542.75 27137.5 10057.5
ITC 195.35 200 39070 187.25 37450 -1620
Jindal Steel 196.8 250 49200 209.7 52425 3225
Inox Leisure 234.7 120 28164 290.45 34854 6690
Total Return 17762.5
So, from here we can conclude that customised Investment is
always beneficial for an Investor.
39 | P a g e
Data from Investment in Money bhai on
different dates
Thank You!!

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Mipm report team 3

  • 1. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT OF PHARMANAUTICAL COMAPNIES SUBMITTED BY: Name Roll No Ankit Agrawal 20194410 Biplov Roy 20191029 Javed Faras M20191562 Prakhar Malot 20192236 Abhishek Bhandari 20194407 Yash R. Atkare 20192262 Vaidehi Parihar 20192259 Kuldeep Shahi 20192222 SUBMITTED TO: Prof. Amey Sane
  • 2. 1 | P a g e Industry Overview  India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally. Indian pharmaceutical sector supplies over 50 per cent of global demand for various vaccines, 40 per cent of generic demand in the US and 25 per cent of all medicine in the UK.  India's biotechnology industry comprising biopharmaceuticals, bio-services, bio-agriculture, bio-industry, and bioinformatics is expected grow at an average growth rate of around 30 per cent a y-o-y to reach US$ 100 billion by 2025.  Pharmaceutical export includes bulk drugs, intermediates, drug formulations, biologicals, Ayush and herbal products and surgical. SWOT Analysis of the Industry The SWOT analysis of the industry reveals the position of the Indian pharma industry in respect to its internal and external environment. Strengths:  Indian with a population of over a billion is a largely untapped market. In fact the penetration of modern medicine is less than 30% in India. To put things in perspective, per capita expenditure on health care in India is US$ 93 while the same for countries like Brazil is US$ 453 and Malaysia US$189.  The growth of middle class in the country has resulted in fast changing lifestyles in urban and to some extent rural centers. This opens a huge market for lifestyle drugs, which has a very low contribution in the Indian markets.  Indian manufacturers are one of the lowest cost producers of drugs in the world. With a scalable labor force, Indian manufactures can produce drugs at 40% to 50% of the cost to the rest of the world. In some cases, this cost is as low as 90%.
  • 3. 2 | P a g e  Indian pharmaceutical industry posses excellent chemistry and process reengineering skills. This adds to the competitive advantage of the Indian companies. The strength in chemistry skill help Indian companies to develop processes, which are cost effective. Weakness:  The Indian pharma companies are marred by the price regulation. Over a period of time, this regulation has reduced the pricing ability of companies. The NPPA (National Pharma Pricing Authority), which is the authority to decide the various pricing parameters, sets prices of different drugs, which leads to lower profitability for the companies. The companies, which are lowest cost producers, are at advantage while those who cannot produce have either to stop production or bear losses.  Indian pharma sector has been marred by lack of product patent, which prevents global pharma companies to introduce new drugs in the country and discourages innovation and drug discovery. But this has provided an upper hand to the Indian pharma companies.  Indian pharma market is one of the least penetrated in the world. However, growth has been slow to come by. As a result, Indian majors are relying on exports for growth. To put things in to perspective, India accounts for almost 16% of the world population while the total size of industry is just 1% of the global pharma industry.  Due to very low barriers to entry, Indian pharma industry is highly fragmented with about 300 large manufacturing units and about 18,000 small units spread across the country. This makes Indian pharma market increasingly competitive. The industry witnesses price competition, which reduces the growth of the industry in value term. To put things in perspective, in the year 2003, the industry actually grew by 10.4% but due to
  • 4. 3 | P a g e price competition, the growth in value terms was 8.2% (prices actually declined by 2.2%) Opportunities:  The migration into a product patent-based regime is likely to transform industry fortunes in the long term. The new patent product regime will bring with its new innovative drugs. This will increase the profitability of MNC Pharma Company and will force domestic pharma companies to focus more on R&D. This migration could result in consolidation as well. Very small players may not be able to cope up with the challenging environment and may succumb to giants.  Large number of drugs going off-patent in Europe and in the US between 2005 to 2009 offers a big opportunity for the Indian companies to capture this market. Since generic drugs are commodities by nature, Indian producers have the competitive advantage, as they are the lowest cost producers of drugs in the world.  Opening up of health insurance sector and the expected growth in per capita income are key growth drivers from a long-term perspective. This leads to the expansion of healthcare industry of which pharma industry is an integral part.  Being the lowest cost producer combined with USFDA approved plants, Indian companies can become a global outsourcing hub for pharmaceutical products. Threats:  There are certain concerns over the patent regime regarding its current structure. It might be possible that the new government may change certain provisions of the patent act formulated by the preceding government.  Threats from other low-cost countries like China and Israel exist. However, on the quality front, India is better placed relative to
  • 5. 4 | P a g e China. So, differentiation in the contract manufacturing side may wane.  The short-term threat for the pharma industry is the uncertainty regarding the implementation of VAT. Though this is likely to have a negative impact in the short-term, the implications over the long-term are positive for the industry. Industry Pestle Analysis Political:  Government initiatives push health education.  Government subsidies and tax waiver for healthcare companies.  Unforeseen political policy may hamper market growth.  Political agendas affect budget allocation to healthcare. Economic:  Emerging markets attracting investments.  Reduction in consumer disposable income affects treatment.  Inflation and changing interest rates affect market growth.  Drug prices are also affected by health of the economy. Social:  Aging global population.  Lifestyle patterns increases incidences of obesity, cancer and diabetes.  Rising health awareness and education. Technological:  Internet penetration making consumer aware of treatment with innovative drugs  New information and communication technologies
  • 6. 5 | P a g e  Social media for healthcare  Customized treatments Legal:  Regulation on pharmaceutical drugs.  Import –export custom duties on pharmaceutical drugs.  Consumer protection laws.  Health insurance regulations. Environmental:  Increase of pollution  Natural disasters pose disease outbreak risk.  Rise in incidences of hospital infected viruses. Why Selected Pharmaceutical Industry?  Low cost of production and R&D boost efficiency of Indian Pharma companies. leading to competitive export.  High economic growth along with increasing penetration of health insurance to push expenditure on health care and medical in India.  Pharma vision 2020 is aimed at making India a global leader in end-to-end drug manufacturing.  In Pharma sector, 100% Foreign Direct Investment is allowed under the automatic route. Why Selected Eris Lifesciences & Granules?  Both companies were in news regarding homogeneous production of medicine with in India with lesser imports of raw material from outside or no imports of raw material from out of the country, this would give rise to make in India initiative and
  • 7. 6 | P a g e can possibly increase the share price of this companies in shorter period itself resulting higher gains.  New development was not expected in other companies as we went through the recent trends and analysis of this industry segment. Better use of R&D was expected in this companies and better growth could be expected from these two comparing other companies of same industry. ERIS LIFESCIENCES- COMPANY OVERVIEW Eris Lifesciences founded by Mr Amit Bakshi and team in 2007 is one of the fastest growing companies within the chronic and acute categories of the Indian Branded Formulations market such as: cardiovascular; anti–diabetes; vitamins; gastroenterology and gynaecology. developing, manufacturing and marketing products which are linked to lifestyle related disorders that are chronic in nature and are treated by super specialist and specialist doctors. Eris features amongst the Top 30 companies in the Indian Branded Formulations Market. Eris Lifesciences is an Ahmedabad-based pharma company which was incorporated in January, 2007. The company develops, manufactures and commercialises branded pharmaceutical products for chronic lifestyle disorders with a complete focus on domestic market. It owns and operates a manufacturing facility in Guwahati, Assam
  • 8. 7 | P a g e and also outsources the manufacturing of certain products to 20 third party manufacturers. The company's top 10 brands have leading market share positions, while 10 mother brands represent 72.5% of its revenues. Lead Managers: Axis Capital, Citigroup Global Markets India and Credit Suisse Securities (India)  Ranked 32nd, the pharma major is one of the fastest growing pharma companies in Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) and has gained 0.7% market share.  Company's margin profile is far superior to its peers, who have highest domestic exposure. It has consistently seen return on equity greater than 30% in the last five years.  We believe that Eris is likely to continue growing faster than its competitors owing to its marketing capability, higher operating leverage and growing market share of its mother brands. ERIC LIFE SCIENCE SWOT ANALYSIS Strength • Bullish Engulfing Pattern • Company with Low Debt • Company with Zero Promoter Pledge • Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (QoQ) Weakness • MACD Crossed below line previous end of the day
  • 9. 8 | P a g e Opportunities • Negative to Positive growth in Sales and Profit with Strong Price momentum • Positive Breakout Second Resistance Threats • Negative to Positive growth in Sales and Profit with Strong Price momentum • Positive Breakout Second Resistance GRANULES INDIA LTD. OVERVIEW Granules India Limited is a pharmaceutical company with presence across the pharmaceutical manufacturing value chain, including active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), pharmaceutical formulation intermediaries (PFIs) and finished dosages (FDs). The Company's business operations include three areas: core business, emerging business, and contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS). Its products in Core business include Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Guaifenesin and Metformin. The Company operates a healthcare division, Granules Consumer Healthcare (GCH). The Company, through an acquisition, has access to over 10 APIs, as well as intermediates in therapeutic categories, such as anti-histaminic, antihypertensive and anti-convulsant. The Company's PFI products include Compresso PAP 97 S, Compresso PAP 90 CPC and Paracetamol Caffeine Combo 77.4. The Company's FDs include Paracetamol/Acetaminophen, and Acetaminophen and Methocarbamol.
  • 10. 9 | P a g e Granules India was formed in 1984 as Triton Laboratories. In 1995, Granules became a public company, after having initial public offerings on the Bombay and Hyderabad Stock Exchanges. GRANULES INDIA LTD.SWOT ANALYSIS Strength • Good quarterly growth in the recent results • Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity • Company with Low Debt • New 52 Week High Weakness • Promoter decreasing their shareholding • Highest promoter stock pledges Opportunities • Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past 3 months • Positive Breakout Third Resistance • RSI indicating price strength • High Volume, High Gain Threats
  • 11. 10 | P a g e • Stocks with Expensive Valuations according • to the Trend line Valuation Score. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a security in an attempt to measure its intrinsic value, by examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors. It is necessary as it gives a clear picture of the company’s profitability and the running of the company. We have considered three sets of ratios: 1.Profitability Ratios 2.Liquidity Ratios 3.Efficiency Ratios Profitability Ratio  Profitability ratios are metrics that assess a company's ability to generate income relative to its revenue, operating costs, balance sheet assets, or shareholders' equity.  Profitability ratios show how efficiently a company generates profit and value for shareholders.  Higher ratio results are often more favorable, but ratios provide much more information when compared to results of similar companies, the company's own historical performance, or the industry average. 1. Return on asset  Return on Assets (ROA) is an indicator of how well a company utilizes its assets, by determining how profitable a company is relative to its total assets.
  • 12. 11 | P a g e  ROA is best used when comparing similar companies or comparing a company to its previous performance.  ROA takes into account a company’s debt, unlike other metrics, such as Return on Equity (ROE).  As we can see the return on asset for Eris lifesciences is greater than granules India but if we look at y-o-y growth we can see there is decline of 40% Eris lifesciences in comparison too Granules India which shows upward trend but still the return on assets for Eris lifesciences are still double as compare to granules India so the investors should still consider Eris lifesciences over granules India. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIS Lifesciences 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Granules India Ltd
  • 13. 12 | P a g e 2. Return on Capital Employed  Return on capital employed is a financial ratio that measures a company’s profitability in terms of all of its capital.  Return on capital employed is similar to return on invested capital (ROCE).  Many companies may calculate the following key return ratios in their performance analysis: return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), return on invested capital (ROIC), and return on capital employed.  As we can see return on capital employed for the companies is decreasing but in terms of using its capital efficiently Eris lifesciences has been better company in term of performance. But still we can in invest in both the companies as both have above 15% which is a good number. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIS Lifesciences
  • 14. 13 | P a g e 3. Earnings per share  Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding.  EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock and is a widely used metric for corporate profits.  A higher EPS indicates more value because investors will pay more for a company with higher profits.  EPS can be arrived at in several forms, such as excluding extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted basis.  As we can see EPS for Granules India and Eris lifesciences is 13 and 21 respectively and have quiet good earnings and seem reasonable for the investors. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Granules India Ltd 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIS Lifesciences
  • 15. 14 | P a g e 4. Net Profit Margin  Net profit margin is equal to how much net income is generated as a percentage of revenue.  Net profit margin helps investors assess if a company's management is generating enough profit from its sales and whether operating costs and overhead costs are being contained.  Net profit margin is one of the most important indicators of a company's financial health.  As per the chart the Net profit margin for Eris has decreased over the year but still margin is high so it still has potential for the investors and granules has also increased over the time which becomes an opportunity for the investors to invest. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Granules India Ltd
  • 16. 15 | P a g e 5. Gross profit Margin  Gross profit margin is an analytical metric expressed as a company's net sales minus the cost of goods sold (COGS).  Gross profit margin is often shown as the gross profit as a percentage of net sales.  The gross profit margin shows the amount of profit made before deducting selling, general, and administrative costs, which is the firm's Net Profit Margin.  As we can see both the company has good gross margin which show companies has effective management which is able to generate huge margin before expenses which is good indication for any companies. High margin show company ability to pay its creditors and shareholders consistency. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIS Lifesciences 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Granules India Ltd
  • 17. 16 | P a g e Liquidity Ratios Liquidity ratios determine a company's ability to cover short-term obligations and cash flows. They are an important class of financial metrics used to determine a debtor's ability to pay off current debt obligations without raising external capital. 1. Current Ratio: The current ratio indicates a company's ability to meet short-term debt obligations. The current ratio measures whether or not a firm has enough resources to pay its debts over the next 12 months. Potential creditors use this ratio in determining whether or not to make short-term loans. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIS Lifesciences 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Granules India Ltd
  • 18. 17 | P a g e  The current ratio of Granules for March 2020 is 1.74 which means that the business has enough cash to be able to pay its debts.  The current ratio of Eris Lifesciences for March 2020 is 3 which means that the company may not be using its current assets or its short-term financing facilities efficiently. This may also indicate problems in its working capital management. GRANULES ERIC LIFE SCIENCE
  • 19. 18 | P a g e Quick Ratio: The quick ratio is an indicator of a company’s short- term liquidity position and measures a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets  The quick ratio of Granules for March 2020 is 1.33 which means that the business has enough current assets to cover their existing amount of near-term debt.  The quick ratio of Eris Lifesciences for March 2020 is 3 which means that the business have $3 of their quick assets available to cover each $1 of its current liabilities. But this also indicates that business is actually may not be making effective use of your cash to grow your business. GRANULES
  • 20. 19 | P a g e Efficiency Ratio GRANULES INDIA LTD PARTICULARS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ERIC LIFE SCIENCE
  • 21. 20 | P a g e ASSET TURNOVER RATIO 0.86 0.75 0.63 0.76 0.78 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DEBTOR TURNOVER RATIO 3.61 3.38 2.68 3.38 3.54 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 INVENTORY TURNOVER RATIO 3.18 2.75 3.44 3.95 3.26 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 years asset turnover ratio 0 1 2 3 4 5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AxisTitle years inventory turnover ratio
  • 22. 21 | P a g e ERIS LIFESCIENCES LTD PARTICULARS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ASSET TURNOVER RATIO 1.5 1.08 0.6 0.65 0.69 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DEBTOR TURNOVER RATIO 22 15 13 12 7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 INVENTORY TURNOVER RATIO 1.93 2.08 2.26 2.12 2.26 0 1 2 3 4 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AxisTitle years debtor turnover ratio
  • 23. 22 | P a g e 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 years asset turnover ratio 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AxisTitle years inventory turnover ratio 0 5 10 15 20 25 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AxisTitle years debtor turnover ratio
  • 24. 23 | P a g e CANDLE STICK ANALYSIS In technical analysis, a candlestick pattern is a movement in prices shown graphically on a candlestick chart that some believe can predict a particular market movement. The recognition of the pattern is subjective and programs that are used for charting have to rely on predefined rules to match the pattern. There are 42 recognized patterns that can be split into simple and complex patterns. Some of the earliest technical trading analysis was used to track prices of rice in the 18th century. Much of the credit for candlestick charting goes to Munehisa Homma (1724–1803), a rice merchant from Sakata, Japan who traded in the Ojima Rice market in Osaka during the Tokugawa Shogun ate. According to Steve Nison, however, candlestick charting came later, probably beginning after 1850 Candlesticks are graphical representations of price movements for a given period of time. They are commonly formed by the opening, high, low, and closing prices of a financial instrument. If the opening price is above the closing price then a filled (normally red or black) candlestick is drawn. If the closing price is above the opening price, then normally a green or a hollow candlestick (white with black outline) is shown. The filled or hollow portion of the candle is known as the body or real body, and can be long, normal, or short depending on its proportion to the lines above or below it. The lines above and below, known as shadows, tails, or wicks represent the high and low price ranges within a specified time period. However, not all candlesticks have shadows.
  • 25. 24 | P a g e 1. THREE BLACK CROWS 2. THREE WHITE SOLDIERS 3. ENGULFING BULLISH 4. BULLISH HARAMI 5. PIERCING LINE 6. SHOOTING STAR 7. DOJI STAR THREE BLACK CROWS THREE WHITE SOLDIERS ENGLUFING BULLISH Graphs are in PPT
  • 26. 25 | P a g e BULLISH HARAMI PIERCING LINE SHOOTING STAR DOJI STAR
  • 27. 26 | P a g e TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical analysis of stocks and trends attempts to predict future price movements, providing traders with the information needed to make a profit. Traders apply technical analysis tools to charts in order to identify entry and exit points for potential trades. An underlying assumption of the technical analysis of stocks and trends is that the market has processed all available information and that it is reflected in the pricing chart. We have analyzed the following technical indicators: 1. Bollinger Bands 2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) 3. Stochastic 4. Ichimoku Cloud 5. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 6. Parabolic SAR 7. Average Directional Index BOLLINGER BAND CHART ANALYSIS A Bollinger Band is a technical analysis tool defined by a set of trendlines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average (SMA) of a security's price, but which can be adjusted to user preferences. Bollinger Bands® were developed and copyrighted by famous technical trader John Bollinger, designed to discover opportunities that Graphs are in PPT
  • 28. 27 | P a g e give investors a higher probability of properly identifying when an asset is oversold or overbought For a given data set, the standard deviation measures how spread out numbers are from an average value. Standard deviation can be calculated by taking the square root of the variance, which itself is the average of the squared differences of the mean. Next, multiply that standard deviation value by two and both add and subtract that amount from each point along the SMA. Those produce the upper and lower bands. Bollinger Bands® are a highly popular technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market. BOLLINGER BAND CHART OF GRANULES INDIA LTD The stocks of granules India ltd has high volatility in period of June and July as there is a huge gap between upper and lower band of the chart. However, at the end of august both the bands are closer to the standard deviation line which suggests that the prices of stocks are getting stable and there is a steady increase in the prices. The closer they move less volatile the stock is becoming. In between the standard deviation is moving towards the upper band which suggest that market is overbought thus increasing the stock prices. BOLLINGER BAND CHART OF ERIS LIFESCIENCES The stocks of ERIS lifesciences has high volatility as there is a huge gap between upper and lower bands of the chart. However, standard deviation is closer to lower band of the chart which suggest that stocks has been oversold and thus there has been slight decrease in the stock prices. At the end of the august both the bands are moving closer to each other which suggests that there has been stability in the prices of
  • 29. 28 | P a g e stock owing to the increasing demand of pharma sector in covid pandemic. Moving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend- following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD called the "signal line," is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD crosses above its signal line and sell - or short - the security when the MACD crosses below the signal line. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls. The Formula for MACD Is: MACD =12-Period EMA - 26-Period EMA. MACD is calculated by subtracting the long-term EMA (26 periods) from the short-term EMA (12 periods). An exponential moving average (EMA) is a type of moving average (MA) that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points. The exponential moving average is also referred to as the exponentially weighted moving average. An exponentially weighted moving average reacts more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average (SMA), which applies an equal weight to all observations in the period.  MACD triggers technical signals when it crosses above (to buy) or below (to sell) its signal line.
  • 30. 29 | P a g e  The speed of crossovers is also taken as a signal of a market is overbought or oversold.  MACD helps investors understand whether the bullish or bearish movement in the price is strengthening or weakening. Stochastic  The STOCHASTIC indicator shows us information about momentum and trend strength. As we will see shortly, the indicator analyses price movements and tells us how fast and how strong the price moves.  This is a quote from George Lane, the inventor of the STOCHASTIC indicator:  “Stochastics measures the momentum of price. If you visualize a rocket going up in the air – before it can turn down, it must slow down. Momentum always changes direction before price.” – George Lane, the developer of the Stochastic indicator.  According to stochastic indicator the Eris life science is showing a neutral to slightly negative parameter, so the stock is less volatile and is trading not on a higher scale.  According to stochastic indicator the Granules is showing a bearish market nearly to 80%, which indicates that the stock is overbought. Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud is a type of chart used in technical analysis to display support and resistance, momentum, and trend in one view. TenkanSen and KijunSen are similar to moving averages and analyzed in relationship to one another. When the shorter-term indicator, TenkanSen, rises above the longer-term indicator, KijunSen, the
  • 31. 30 | P a g e securities trend is typically positive. When TenkanSen falls below KijunSen, the securities trend is typically negative. TenkanSen and KijunSen as a group are then analyzed in relationship to the Cloud, which is composed of the area between Senkou A and Senkou B.  When TenkanSen and KijunSen are decidedly above the Cloud, the issue's trend is positive.  When TenkanSen and KijunSen are decidedly below the Cloud, the issue's trend is negative.  Using the Cloud to determine trend: 1. When prices are above the cloud, the trend is up. When prices are below the cloud, the trend is down. 2. When Senkou A is rising and above Senkou B, the uptrend is strengthening. When Senkou A is falling and below Senkou B, the downtrend is strengthening.  A buy signal is reinforced when the Tenkan Sen crosses above the Kijun Sen while the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and price are all above the cloud.  A sell signal is reinforced when the TenKan Sen crosses below the Kijun Sen while the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, and price are all below the cloud. As per the chart of our core companies Eris lifesciences and granules India ltd. As we can see in the chart of granules India ltd for the current quarter the chart has shown an upward trend from Early July as we can see Tenkansen and kijunsen are above the cloud which show the prices are currently positive. As we can see the uptrend has strengthen over the period which means the Senkou A is above Senkou B in the current chart. As we can see the Tenkansen is above Kijunsen which show a buy signal for the investors. And seeing the trend upward the cloud is below the stock prices. As per the chart the Eris lifesciences has seen downward trend from June starting which means the kijunsen was above the tenkansen which
  • 32. 31 | P a g e shows sell signal for the investors as the cloud are above the issue prices. After a month the trend changed the Tenkansen was seen above the kijunsen which means the trend is moving upward which shows the stock is strengthening towards uptrend and which signal the investors to buy the stocks. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can have a reading from 0 to 100. The indicator was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems." Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.  The RSI Indicator shown in Eris Lifesciences is showing negative that means this stock has been oversold and there is high chance that market will correct its value and its price will go high.  The RSI Indicator shown in Granules is above 80%, which indicates that the stock is overbought and there is a high chance that market will re calculate the value and the stock price will come down. Parabolic SAR It is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well as draw attention to when the price direction is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic
  • 33. 32 | P a g e SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of the relative strength index (RSI). Parabolic SAR attempts to give traders an edge by highlighting the direction an asset is moving, as well as providing entry and exit points. While used to gauge a stock's direction and for placing stop-loss orders. In a chart, the indicator appears as a series of dots placed either above or below the price bars. A dot below the price is deemed to be a bullish signal. Conversely, a dot above the price is used to illustrate that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward. When the dots flip, it indicates that a potential change in price direction is under way. For example, if the dots are above the price, when they flip below the price, it could signal a further rise in price. As the price of a stock rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly and then picking up speed and accelerating with the trend. The SAR starts to move a little faster as the trend develops, and the dots soon catch up to the price. The following chart shows that the indicator works well for capturing profits during a trend, but it can lead to many false signals when the price moves sideways or is trading in a choppy market (that means where the trend is not present in market). The indicator would have kept the trader in the trade while the price rose. When the price is moving sideways, the trader should expect more losses and/or small profits.
  • 34. 33 | P a g e The following chart shows a downtrend, and the indicator would have kept the trader in a short trade (or out of longs) until the pullbacks to the upside began. When the downtrend resumed, the indicator got the trader back in. The parabolic SAR is also a method for setting stop-loss orders. When a stock is rising, move the stop-loss to match the parabolic SAR indicator. The same concept applies to a short trade—as the price falls, so will the indicator. Move the stop-loss to match the level of the indicator after every price bar.
  • 35. 34 | P a g e This indicator is mechanical and will always be giving new signals to get long or short. It is up to the trader to determine which trades to take and which to leave alone. For example, during a downtrend, it is better to take only the short sales like those shown in the chart above, as opposed to taking the buy signals as well. The parabolic SAR performs best in markets with a steady trend. In ranging markets, the parabolic SAR tends to whipsaw back and forth, generating false trading signals. The parabolic SAR is 'always on,' and constantly generating signals, whether there is a quality trend or not. Therefore, many signals may be of poor quality because no significant trend is present or develops following a signal. The basic use of parabolic SAR is to buy when the dots move below the price bar – signalling an uptrend and sell or short sell when the dots move above the price bars signalling a downtrend. This results in constant trade signals as the trader will always have the position. Though there is the positive movement on the day but since the market are steady hence it would be difficult for trader to detect the trend as multiple trade signals are there for ERIS life sciences. Hence other tools like moving averages should be included to detect the trend.
  • 36. 35 | P a g e Taking about the parabolic SAR condition of the market is bearish on the day but there is positive and good trend in the market. Hence there is a uptrend singling to buy
  • 37. 36 | P a g e Average Directional Index The average directional index (ADX) is a technical analysis indicator which was developed in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder. It is used by traders to determine the strength of a trend. The trend can be either up or down, and this is shown by two accompanying indicators, the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI). Therefore, ADX commonly includes three separate lines. The Average Directional Index (ADX) along with the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) are momentum indicators. The ADX helps investors determine trend strength while -DI and +DI help determine trend direction. ADX will range between 0 and 100. Time period generally considered is 14 days. The ADX identifies a strong trend when the ADX is over 25 and a weak trend when the ADX is below 20. Crossovers of the -DI and +DI lines can be used to generate trade signals. For example, if the +DI line crosses above the -DI line and the ADX is above 20, or ideally above 25, then that is a potential signal to buy. If the -DI crosses above the +DI, and ADX is above 20 or 25, then that is an opportunity to enter a potential short trade. Crosses can also be used to exit current trades. For example, if long, exit when the -DI crosses above the +DI. When ADX is below 20 the indicator is signaling that the price is trendless, and therefore may not be an ideal time to enter a trade. For Granules, the ADX is above 25 which means there is a strong trend. The +DI is above -DI, which means the price of the stock is moving up and it shows the bullish trend of the stock. Hence investors are advised to buy the shares. For Eric Lifesciences, the ADX is above 25 which means there is a strong trend. The +DI is below -DI, which means the price of the stock is moving down and it shows a mild bearish trend of the stock. Hence investors are advised to sell the shares.
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  • 39. 38 | P a g e Portfolio CORE Company Purchase Price Quantity Total Investment Value Selling Price Total Sell Value Returns Granules India 317.4 300 95220 348.15 104445 9225 Eris Life 532.5 200 106500 500.9 100180 -6320 Total Return 2905 Company Purchase Price Quantity Total Investment Value Selling Price Total Sell Value Returns Divi lab 3090 15 46350 3230.1 48451.5 2101.5 cipla 728.65 50 36432.5 725.45 36272.5 -160 glenmark 471.3 100 47130 477.1 47710 580 Dr reddy 4573.6 10 45736 4433.15 44331.5 -1404.5 Aurobindo pharma ltd 944.8 25 23620 807.75 20193.75 -3426.25 Total -2309.25 Customised Company Purchase Price Quantity Total Investment Value Selling Price Total Sell Value Returns Wipro 279.65 200 55930 276.7 55340 -590 Adani Green Ene 341.6 50 17080 542.75 27137.5 10057.5 ITC 195.35 200 39070 187.25 37450 -1620 Jindal Steel 196.8 250 49200 209.7 52425 3225 Inox Leisure 234.7 120 28164 290.45 34854 6690 Total Return 17762.5 So, from here we can conclude that customised Investment is always beneficial for an Investor.
  • 40. 39 | P a g e Data from Investment in Money bhai on different dates Thank You!!