The role of money in trade balance stability
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The document analyzes the role of money in trade balance stability by synthesizing the elasticity and absorption approaches. It presents a model that incorporates monetary factors like money supply and interest rates. The model assumes internal balance and Keynesian neutral monetary policy. It finds that under these assumptions, a devaluation can improve the trade balance if the Marshall-Lerner condition is met and marginal savings propensities are positive. However, the stability condition is stricter when terms-of-trade effects are considered. It also finds the Keynesian neutral money policy assumption could lead to instability, and that neither approach alone is sufficient, as both monetary and elasticity factors must be analyzed together.
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The role of money in trade balance stability
- 1. The Role Of Money In Trade-Balance Stability: Synthesis Of The Elasticity And Absorption Approaches By S.C. Tsiang 1961 C. J. Huang & B. H. Hsieh report International Economic The AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
- 2. • 彈性法Elasticity approach-J.Robinson • 吸收法Absorption approach-S.S.Alexander and Meade B ≡ Y − A B:貿易餘額 Y:國民收入 A:吸收or國民支出 Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 3. • 在貨幣供給及信用的效果詳細闡明前，貶值帶來的效果無法確定 (Machlup) • 支出法的最大貢獻就是強調了貨幣對於BOP赤字或盈餘所帶來的 影響(Johnson) • Michaely試圖整合彈性法與支出法－real balance effect • 加入乘數分析的彈性法 (Brown,Allen,Harberger,Laursen and Metzler,Stuvel,Jones)也尚未加入貨幣扮演的角色。甚至是將支 出法與彈性法綜合的Brems以及Alexander本人也沒有。 Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 4. • Meade模型將貨幣供給和利率納入 • Meade模型的前提： Keynesian neutral economy 保證內部平衡的貨幣政策 Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 5. Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 6. Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 7. • 假定期初： • 國內支出： Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 8. • 國內支出變化量： • 國內支出變化量(Meade)： Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 9. Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 10. International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 11. International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 12. International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 13. International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 14. • 內生 ∶ 𝑑 𝑎, 𝑑 𝑏, 𝑞 𝑎, 𝑞 𝑏, 𝑟𝑎, 𝑟𝑏, 𝑡 • 外生:𝑒, 𝑚 𝑎, 𝑚 𝑏 Introduction The Model International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 15. Effect of a Devaluation Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy The Role Of Money In Trade-Balance Stability : Synthesis Of The Elasticity And Absorption ApproachesInternational Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 16. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 充分就業 • 價格穩定 • 國家總產出 • 內部平衡=消費[可支配所得] +投資+政府支出+經常帳 內部平衡假設 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 17. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 關於一國貨幣的貶值與該國貿易收支改善程度的關係，一國貨幣相對於他 國貨幣貶值，能否改善該國的貿易收支狀況 （1）出口商品的需求彈性 （2）出口商品的供給彈性 （3）進口商品的需求彈性 （4）進口商品的供給彈性 出口需求彈性＋進口需求彈性＞1 ，則貶值可改善收支情況 Marshall-Lerner 條件 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 18. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • Meade模型 在 Keynesian neutral monetary policy下成立 • 分母異於Marshall-Lerner 條件 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 19. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 𝑡 ,貿易平衡變動量 • 𝑒 ,A國貨幣在B國每單位可購買變動匯率 • 𝜋 ,A國以總和支出替代國民所得所定義的進口傾向 • 𝜖 ,進口需求的補償支出價格彈性 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 20. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 貿易條件的影響對總支出貨幣貶值，對於貿易平衡無影響 • 貿易條件的支出變化，附加效果將抵消，從充分就業的貨幣政策進行自 動補償。 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 21. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 𝑎 𝑏 國家支出比例，進口兩國商品之花費 • 𝜆 𝑎, 𝜆 𝑏 為邊際儲蓄傾向 • 𝜂 𝑎, 𝜂 𝑏 產量實質勞動成本彈性 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 22. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 𝑡 𝑒 > 0, ∆1> 0 則為穩定 • 𝜆 𝑎, 𝜆 𝑏 其中一個或皆為負，則為穩定條件 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 23. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 動態不穩定→則模型不穩定 • 動態穩定→則模型穩定 Samuelson(1941) “ The Correspondence Principle International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 24. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 傳統貨幣中立政策 • 缺乏長期人口成長 • 經濟體系實質生產力 • 經濟體系貨幣供給固定 •Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy •Orthodox Neutral Monetary Policy International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 25. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 衡量在一定時期內一個國家出口相對於進口的指標，反映該國的對外貿易狀況，為一國出口 與進口的交換比價： 貿易條件指數(N)=出口價格指數(Px)/進口價格指數(Pm)×100 • 貿易條件指數大於100，出口價格比進口價格相對上漲，換回更多商品，該國貿易條件有利 • 貿易條件指數小於100 ，出口價格比進口價格相對下跌，換回更少商品，該國貿易條件不利 • 貿易條件的惡化會降低一國的福利水平。 貿易條件效果 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 26. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy • 𝑎 𝑏 國家支出比例，進口兩國商品之花費 • 𝜆 𝑎, 𝜆 𝑏 為邊際儲蓄傾向 • 𝜂 𝑎, 𝜂 𝑏 產量實質勞動成本彈性 𝜆 𝑎, 𝜆 𝑏 >0 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 27. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 在貿易條件效果總和支出，結合兩學派最重要的因素為－貨幣因子 1)相對價格效果與支用效果 2)支用學派在凱因斯政策下成立，則邊際儲蓄傾向>0， 則進口需求彈性>1，而在邊際儲蓄傾向=0， 𝑡 𝑒 = 0則貶值效果為零， 當邊際儲蓄傾向為<0，則為不穩定。 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 28. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 3)當需求進出口彈性總額＞１，邊際儲蓄傾向>０時，是匯率最佳情況 在凱因斯政策之下，在貶值國家充分就業時，則每供給一個商品需要的勞 動為零時，∆1、∆2為無限大，貶值效果為零 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 29. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 𝜉 收入與貨幣需求 𝜁 利率與貨幣需求 𝜌 利率與國內支出 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 30. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 在本國充分就業不隱含不穩定的貿易平衡和匯率 當A國為充份就業時 𝜂 𝑎→0 則 𝑡 𝑒 不為0 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 31. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 貿易條件在支出上，穩定條件下更加嚴格 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 32. Internal Balance Assumed Keynesian Neutral Monetary Policy The Terms-of-Trade Effect Instability of the Keynesian Orthodox Neutral Money Policy 則與Marshall-Lerner 穩定條件相比 International Economic TSIANG:Trade-Balance Stability
- 33. • 支出理論在分析貶值效果，僅在強調貿易平衡為正向則增加儲蓄效果，在貿易 平衡為負向則減少儲蓄效果，要進行更全面收入與支出的影響分析，需要更多 彈性方法。 • 本文顯示，不僅是由彈性決定貶值效果。 • 在貨幣需求或供給無限情況下固定利率的凱因斯假設，扼殺了貨幣因子 • 對於貨幣假設，隱含不穩定匯率在本國達到充分就業時，甚至沒有對投機性資 本流動與工資物價上漲，依然會不穩定，但在現今社會很難再次達到就業量。 • 指出兩觀點並非互斥，而為相輔相成。 Conclusion
- 34. THANK YOU For International Economic And For Your Listening