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1. MARKET
IDENTIFICATION AND
SIZING
Engr. Miriam M. Bergado
References:
• Steve Blanks - Lean Startup
• RTI International
• Filipinnovation Entrepreneurs Corps
• Google Searches

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CUSTOMER ARCHETYPES
• End User - The person who will actually use the product or service. May or may not be
important to the overall decision.
• Decision Maker - The person with the authority or clout to decide which solution gets
adopted
• Payer - The person who has budget for the solution. Often appears late in the process.
Typically insensitive to needs and wants of other types
• Influencer - A person who “weighs in” on a solution purchase. May be outside the
organization. Typically gets excited by features or value propositions of the solution
• Recommender - A person who is tasked to recommend solutions. Often are rigid in
their tasks. Sometimes removed from end users
• Saboteur - A person who will lose out if the solution is adopted. Typically, a person or
group who is benefiting from the current solution
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CUSTOMER TYPES
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https://xp123.com/articles/who-is-the-customer/

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https://www.thebalancemoney.com/b2b-vs-b2c-marketing-2295828

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https://successwise.com/b2b-vs-b2c-do-you-need-separate-websites/

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• Individual Customer – B2C
(Business to Consumer)
• BigCo Customer – B2B
(Business to Business)
• Small Business Customer –
B2B (Business to Business)
https://xp123.com/articles/who-is-the-customer/

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AND YOU HAVE A LOT OF CUSTOMERS!
Segments
• Geography
• Business type
• Activity
• Age
• Situation
• Incentives/Motivations
Types
• End User
• Decision Maker
• Payer
• Influencer
• Recommender
• Saboteur

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TYPES OF CUSTOMER SEGMENTS
• Mass market - focus on one large group of customers with broadly similar needs and
problems. Example: consumer electronics sector.
• Niche market - cater to specific, specialized customer segments such business models
are often found in supplier-buyer relationship. Example: many car part manufacturers depend
heavily on purchases from major automobile manufacturers.
• Segmented - between market segments with slightly different needs and problems.
Example: Micro Precision Systems, which specializes in providing outsourced micro-mechanical design and
manufacturing solutions. It serves three different customer segments — the watch industry, the medical industry,
and the industrial automation sector — and offers each slightly different Value Propositions.
• Diversified - serves two unrelated customer segments with very different needs and
problems. For example, in 2006 Amazon.com decided to diversify its retail business by selling “cloud
computing” services: online storage space and on-demand server usage.
• Multi-sided platforms (or multi-sided markets) - serve two or more interdependent
customer segments. Example: A credit card company, for example, needs a large base of credit card holders
and a large base of merchants who accept those credit cards.
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11. MARKET VALIDATION
• D e t e r m i n e i f t h e r e ’ s a
n e e d f o r y o u r p r o d u c t
i n y o u r t a r g e t m a r k e t
M a r k e t V a l i d a t i o n
• E n a b l e y o u t o
r e a s o n a b l y p r e d i c t
w h e t h e r p e o p l e w i l l
b u y y o u r p r o d u c t o r
s e r v i c e , a n d w h e t h e r
y o u r b u s i n e s s w i l l b e
p r o f i t a b l e .
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MARKET SIZE
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How BIG
is the
opportunity?

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HOW BIG IS IT?: MARKET/OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS
Assess Market Size and Share
–Identify a Customer and Market Need
–Size the Market
–Competitors
–Growth Potential
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HOW BIG IS THE PIE? TOTAL AVAILABLE MARKET (TAM)
Total Available Market
• How many people would want/need
the product?
• How large is the market be
(in PhP’s) if they all bought?
• How many units would that be?
How Do I Find Out?
• Industry Analysts – DTI, BOI, NEDA
• PHISEX Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
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HOW BIG IS MY SLICE? SERVED AVAILABLE MARKET (SAM)
• How many people need/can use product?
• How many people have the money to
buy the product
• How large would the market be (in PhP’s)
if they all bought?
• How many units would that be?
How Do I Find Out?
• Talk to potential customers
Serviceable
Available
Market
Total
Available
Market
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HOW MUCH CAN I EAT? TARGET MARKET (SOM)
• Who am I going to sell to in year 1, 2 & 3?
• How many customers is that?
• How large is the market be
(in PhP’s) if they all bought?
• How many units would that be?
How Do I Find Out?
• Talk to potential customers
• Identify and talk to channel partners
• Identify and talk to competitors
Total
Available
Market Serviceable
Obtainable
Market
Serviceable
Available
Market
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17. Market Research Reports can give you insights —for free.
Many sources sell market research.
• Market research firms like Frost & Sullivan,
Gartner
• Market research aggregators like Research
and Markets, MarketResearch.com
Use what you can for free.
• Press releases
• Summaries
• Table of contents
Some governments provide free market
research.
• US sources like export.gov and SelectUSA
provide market information to support
exports and foreign investment
Top
Down
Approach

18. Philippine-Based Sources:
Various Chamber of Commerce in
The Philippines
- PCCI
- AMCHAM
- CanCham
- ECCP
Marketing and Opinion
Research Society of the
Philippines (MORES)
Euromonitor
Phil. Institute of
Developmental Studies PIDS
Universities and
Colleges
Researches
Business News
Agencies
- Reuters
- Forbes
- PDI
- Business World
- Business Mirror
Big Consulting Companies
• McKinsey & Company.
• Boston Consulting Group.
• Bain & Company.
• Deloitte Consulting LLP.
• Oliver Wyman.
• Booz Allen Hamilton.
• EY-Parthenon.
• PwC Advisory Services.

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TAM, SAM, SOM SUMMARY

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26. Often market research reports do not contain information
about your specific market.
And you have to estimate……

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You are targeting the vehicle battery market in PH
The information available are for SEA market in total

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What is the market size for vehicle batteries?

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Automotive industry in the Philippines - statistics & facts

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What is the segment of the market are you targeting?
In 2020, the number of
registered private trucks
were down to approximately
434 thousand in the
Philippines.
In 2020, the number of
registered private buses
were down to
approximately 25
thousand in the
Philippines.
Year-to-date, sales of light trucks rose by
54 percent to 1,917 units from 1,245 units;
sales of trucks and buses category four
rose 69.6 percent to 1,335 units from 787
units; and trucks and buses category five
increased its sales by 90.2 percent to 523
units from 275 units.

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But, Vehicle Battery is still a subset of this market.
vehicles
Truck
Private
Cars
Body
Used
2-3
Wheeled
Aftermarket
parts
Motor
Battery
Other
Battery
New
Philippines Number of
Registered Vehicles was
reported at 4,711,103 Unit in
Dec 2019. This records an
increase from the previous
number of 4,433,181 Unit for
Dec 2018. Philippines Number
of Registered Vehicles data is
updated yearly, averaging
2,463,932 Unit from Dec 1981
to 2019,

33. Estimating your potential
Philippines Number of Registered Vehicles
was reported at 4,711,103 Unit in Dec 2019.
This records an increase from the previous
number of 4,433,181 Unit for Dec 2018.
Philippines Number of Registered Vehicles
data is updated yearly, averaging 2,463,932
Unit from Dec 1981 to 2019,
In 2020, the number of
registered private trucks
were down to approximately
434 thousand in the
Philippines.
~ 9.21% of total registered vehicles are trucks (434K)
434,000*~Php 6,000.00 = 2.6 Billion Pesos market
NCR is ~24% of total market share of registered vehicles *2018
~104K NCR Truck Market Segment that needs batteries
TAM
SAM
SOM
Revenue Model
104,000*~Php 6,000.00 = 624 Million Pesos market for NCR

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For these types of market numbers, use your people
finding skills and talk with someone who knows.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Bottom
–Up
Approach
Bottom-Up – This approach is often more time-consuming than top-down
market sizing, because you do all of your own market research and you don't
rely solely on generalized forecasts and trends. However, you'll get a more
realistic and accurate assessment of your market's potential.
https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/market-sizing.htm

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MARKET TYPE HYPOTHESES
Your market must be one of:
• new product to existing market?
• new product to new market?
• new product to existing market and trying to re-segment
that market?
Each has different cash needs, rates of customer adoption and
acceptance, needs different sales and marketing strategies.
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HYPOTHESES TO TEST (SAMPLE)
Hypothesis Test
There is strong Interest in facilitating rental
maintenance support
Interviews (landlord and providers), web ad
conversion
Service providers are willing to pay for lead
generation through our site
Interviews (need to determine consensus
willingness to pay)
There will be a higher response rate amongst
tenants and landlords for an “exclusive”
community
Interviews (tenant and landlord), survey
(tenant), web ad conversion of different
messages
Tenants are willing to pay a nominal fee
($1-2) for convenient rent/utility online
payment service
Interviews (tenant), survey (tenant), web ad
conversion.
(Need at least 0.08% CPM conversion to be
profitable)
Real Estate agents are willing to help push
this offering to their customers
Interviews

37. EXAMPLE
JOURNEY OF
VALIDATING
HYPOTHESIS
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WEEK 1 → WEEK 3
Hypothesis
• Existing prepaid cards add value to
a subset of the population
• Underpenetrated
opportunity
• We can find a better channel
to reach this customer
segment and convert them
• Existing prepaid cards are flawed
and can be improved
• We can do something clever
to shake up the fee structure
and/or build in a new
feature (e.g., rewards)
• Solution = prepaid + loyalty card
• Distributed at retail POS
Test
 Interviewed supermarket
executives, payment
processors, private label card
manufacturers, prepaid
program managers, loyalty
consultants, and data analytic
firms
Results
 User acquisition is critical →
user engagement is everything
 Underpenetrated opportunity
because people:
▪ Don’t understand the value
of the card
▪ Don’t know about the card
▪ Haven’t bought one yet
 Potential customers are aware of
and understand prepaid, but:
▪ Hate the fees
▪ Haven’t bought one yet
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WEEK 3 → WEEK 4
Hypothesis Test
 Interviewed end users at
Walmart, food banks, bus
stops, payday lenders, their
homes, and supermarkets
 Interviewed execs at Green
Dot, Rush Card, and NetSpend
Results
End Users see value:
 More likely to sign up for
prepaid via assisted POS sale
 Active vs. passive sale
hypothesis validated
 More likely to keep and reload
cards with ongoing cash
rewards
 Higher retention via loyalty
hypothesis validated
Retailers see value:
 New revenue opportunity is
compelling
 Access to purchasing data
outside the store is compelling
Industry Trends
 Loyalty + prepaid programs
are the future
 Industry execs like this idea a
lot and are actively exploring it
• Existing prepaid cards add value to
a subset of the population
• Underpenetrated
opportunity
• We can find a better channel
to reach this customer
segment and convert them
• Existing prepaid cards are flawed
and can be improved
• We can do something clever
to shake up the fee structure
and/or build in a new
feature (e.g., rewards)
• Solution = prepaid + loyalty card
• Distributed at retail POS
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WEEK 4 → WEEK 5
Hypothesis
• Customer awareness and
education are key obstacles to
customer acquisition and
retention
• Channel: Assisted sale at POS
trumps current passive j-hook sale
• Active sale enhances
awareness & education
• Product: Combining prepaid +
loyalty
• Cash rebates improve
retention and incentive to
reload
Test
 $5 for 5 minutes campaign
 Speak to as many potential
customers as possible →ask for
an actual commitment
Results
 20 preliminary signups
 Built empathy around customer
prepaid needs
 Immediacy
 Security fears
 Fees
 Channels
 Discovered other needs
 Job-seeking
 Saving for kids’ education
 Understood observed behaviors
 High churn
 Lack of reloading
 Lack of regular usage
 Loyalty component not required
if you can service the true pain
points
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MARKET SIZE: SUMMARY
• Market Size Questions:
• How big can this market be?
• How much of it can we get?
• Market growth rate
• Market structure (Mature or in flux?)
• Most important: Talk to Customers and Sales
Channel
• Next important: Market size by competitive
approximation.

42. ASSIGNMENT
1. Come up with ways to
test your hypotheses
for your market:
➢Talk to 10-15 more
customers.
➢is your idea worth
pursuing (considering
possible customers and
market size estimate)
2. Market Size estimates.
➢ Create your TAM, SAM,
and SOM.
Teams presentations
5 minutes each team (4-7 slides)
1. Learnings:
• Here’s What we
Thought
• So Here’s What we
Did
• So Here’s What we
Found
• So Here’s What we
Are Going to Do
2. Market Size
estimates. 44

43. THANK YOU
ANY QUESTIONS?
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