Fundamental Analysis is a study of factors (company specific and external environment) that affect the value of stock. This program will help you to understand the impact of factors on the valuation of the stock, analysis of the environment and interpretation of financial statement.
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3. Why to invest in Equity?
Returns
Long Term Investment
Flexibility and Liquidity
Tax Benefits
No Minimum Investment
Diversification
Cumulative Annualized Returns
5. How to invest in Equity?
Primary
market(IPO)
Secondary Market
(NSE/BSE)
Mutual Funds
Portfolio
Management
Services
Direct
Investments
Indirect
Investments
Investment
Equities
6. How to invest in Equity?
IPO: Is the first stage when the company initially issues securities to the public to raise
money for the business. Investors or traders generally buy the shares in the primary
market and resell them in the secondary market.
Secondary Market: Once listed the shares are available for trading for the investors. Like
any other marketplace, there are buyers and sellers of shares in the market. There is no
interaction between them, as the orders are placed online and is settled by the stock
exchange. The buying and selling of shares is done through a stock brokers.
Mutual Funds: Investing in shares directly in the stock markets is certainly exciting but
not every one may have knack of choosing right stocks. For those people, investing in an
equity fund is the answer. Investors give their money to the experts (fund managers) to
invest on their behalf. These funds are split into 'units' and an investor can purchase as
many units at the current Net Asset Value (NAV) as he or she requires.
Portfolio Management Services (PMS): PMS allows you to delegate the responsibility of
managing your investments to a team of experts who understand your investment
objectives and work towards achieving them. They will take complete responsibility for
managing your investments and take investment decisions in your best interests.
7. Investment Horizons
Intraday trading: Buying and selling of stocks to square off on the same day is called day
trading this is also called as Intra day trading.
Short Term Trading: Stock trading done from one week to couple of months is called
short term. Companies or sectors having some breaking news will be used for short term
trading.
Mid term Trading: Stock trading done from one month to couple of months, say six to
eight months is called mid term trading. Companies announcements of quarterly results
or some big foreign acquisitions will be used for mid term trading.
Long term trading: Stock trading done form couple of months to couple of years is called
long term trading. Companies whose fundamentals are good and have good future plans
then the stocks of these companies are used for long term trading. Generally traders
having good capital go for long term trading.
8. Importance of stock picking
By becoming a good stock-picker, you can protect/increase your personal
wealth
For example :- Eicher Motor from 2001 to 2017
Fundamental analysis is often a great starting point to picking good companies
9. What is fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is the process of determining a stock or company’s
intrinsic value. Intrinsic value of a stock represents the company's actual value .
The actual value is often different from the share price.
Helps you Pick the Right Stocks.
For Long Term Investing.
Gives the True Value of the company.
10. How to do Fundamental Analysis….
There are two type of approaches :-
Top-down and bottom-up approaches
Investors using fundamental analysis can use either a top-down or bottom-up approach.
The top-down investor starts their analysis with global economics, including both
international and national Indicators. These may include GDP growth rates, Inflation
Interest Rates, Exchange Rates.
The bottom-up investor starts with specific businesses, regardless of their
industry/region, and the proceeds in reverse of the top-down approach.
Fundamental Analysis thus involves 3 steps
Economic analysis
Industry analysis
Company analysis
11. Economic analysis
GDP
Savings And Investment
Inflation
Agriculture
Rates Of Interest
Govt. Revenue, Expenditure & Deficits
Infrastructure
Political Stability
15. When to buy and when to sell
The objective of uncovering a stock or company’s intrinsic value is to make one of the
following decisions:
Hold or Not to Sell: When the market price of a stock equals the intrinsic value of a
business, the value investor may buy it.
Buy: When the market price of a stock is less than the intrinsic value of a business, the
value investor should buy the stocks.
Sell or Not Buy: When the price of the stocks soars well beyond the value of the
company, the investor should sell or simply avoids such stocks.
In other words:
– Intrinsic Value > Market Value Buy
– Intrinsic Value < Market Value Sell
– Intrinsic Value = Market Value Hold/Buy
16. Key fundamental parameters
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
P/E Ratio (Price/ EPS)
PEG (Price to future growth ratio)
Dividend yield
Price/ Book value
Return on equity
17. Key parameters - Earnings per share
EPS (Earnings Per Share) : The portion of a company's profit allocated to each
outstanding share of. The amount is computed by dividing net earnings by the number
of outstanding shares of common stock.
For example, a company that earned Rs. 10 Crs net profit after minority interest and has
1 Crs shares outstanding would report earnings per share of Rs. 10.
PAT / No. Of shares= 10,00,00,000/ 100,00,000 = Rs. 10
18. Key parameters - Price/ EPS
P/E Ratio (Price/ EPS) : Also called "earnings multiple", current price of a stock divided by
its earnings per share.
For example, a company is trading at CMP of Rs. 350 and has EPS of Rs. 15 , then its P/E
is 23.33
CMP/EPS = 350/15 = 23.3 times
The P/E ratio may either use the reported earnings from the latest (trailing earnings)
year or use an analyst's forecast of next year's earnings (forward earnings).
P/E gives investors an idea of how much they are paying for a company's earning power.
It is to be noted that the P/E ratio should not be used in isolation; a high P/E ratio might
show an overvalued stock, but it might reflect a company with high growth potential.
P/E is usually dependent on the industry you are analyzing, for example, a utility
company will probably have a lower PE ratio generally, than tech companies.
19. Key parameters - PEG (Price to future growth ratio)
The market is more concerned about the future than the present, A ratio that will help
you look at future earnings growth is called the PEG ratio.
You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in
earnings.
– PEG = (P/E) / projected growth in earnings
For example, a stock with a P/E of 40 and projected earning growth next year of 20%
would have a PEG of 40 / 20 = 2.
The lower the PEG number, the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. So
even a stock with a high P/E, but high projected earning growth may be a good value.
Important note: You must understand that the PEG ratio relies on the projected %
earnings. These earnings are not always accurate and so the PEG ratio is not always
accurate.
From value investing perspective PEG should be less than one.
20. Key parameters - Dividend yield
Company A Company B
CMP Rs. 350 250
Dividend Rs. 5 5
Dividend Yield 1.4% 2%
Dividend is an amount of the profits that a company pays to its share holders.
When a company earns a profit, some of this money is reinvested in the business and
called retained earnings, and some of it can be paid to its shareholders as a dividend.
In the absence of any positive movement in share price, the dividend yield is the return
on investment for a stock.
Dividend yield is calculated as
In an example below, if all other things are equal an investor should invest in stock B as it
has higher dividend yield
21. Key parameters - Price/ Book value
Book Value: It is the total value of the company's assets that shareholders
would theoretically receive if a company were liquidated
By being compared to the company's market value, the book value can indicate
whether a stock is under or overpriced. A lower P/B ratio could mean that the
stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that something is
fundamentally wrong with the company.
A ratio used to compare a stock's market value to its book value. It is calculated
by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter's book
value per share.
From value investing perspectives stock price should be no more than tangible
book value
22. Key parameters - Return on equity
Return on equity measures a company’s profitability by revealing how much profit a
company generates with the money shareholders have invested.
ROE is calculated as = Net Income/Shareholder's Equity
The ROE is useful for comparing the profitability of a company to that of other firms in
the same industry.
23. Risk involved in Investing Equities
Investing in stocks is a risky business. There are some risks you have some control over and
others that you can only guard against.
Types of Risk :- Unsystematic And systematic Risk
Unsystematic risk/ Specific risk / Diversifiable risk/ Residual risk :- is the type of
uncertainty that comes with the company or industry you invest in. Unsystematic risk
can be reduced through diversification.
Systematic risk/market risk/ un-diversifiable risk :- is the uncertainty inherent to the
entire market or entire market segment.
24. Risk involved in Investing Equities
Company Risk: The risk that is specific to the company, its management and internal
working which may affect the growth and share price of the company.
Industry Risk: The changes in technology, regulations, fashions, etc. will affect the
performance of an industry and hence the company directly.
Market Risk: Change in stock prices due to change in investor’s preferences, bear
market, political and economic instability, exchange rate fluctuations are covered in
market risk.
Social/Political Risk: Risk associated with the possibility of unfavorable government
action or social changes resulting in a loss of value is called social or political risk.
Interest Rate Risk: Change in interest rate directly affects the prices of the company’s
share. Companies with higher debt or heavy expansion plans may get impacted due to
higher interest rates.
Concentration Risk: when you invest in single company or single fund you are actually
taking a huge risk.
25. Overcoming the investment risk
Diversification: Diversify your portfolio across various sectors and stocks. So if there is
adverse environment for any stock or sector the impact will be limited on over all
portfolio.
Value Investing: One should invest in stocks which are available at attractive valuations
and have good growth prospects. Unless confident about the growth prospects of a
company investor should avoid over valued stocks.
Invest with Discipline: Invest in tranches on regular basis to overcome market volatility.
Promoter's Shareholding: Avoid investing in stocks where promoter’s holding less. Less
promoters holding indicates less commitment on part of promoters.
26. Common mistakes
Lack of Strategy: You should know when to buy a stock, what is selling price and how
long you will hold the shares. When choose a strategy follow its principles.
Not taking the Profit: When a reasonable profit has already been made, overcome
greed and sell the stock fully or partially for taking the profit.
Trading with money you can't afford to lose: Don't use money that you really can't
afford to lose.
Falling in love with a Stock: Some people stick to a stock because they believe it is a
good stock. They even lose much money, but don't sell it.
Don't even consider "tips" that tell you about "hot stocks”: Do not invest on tips of
some one, he might have a vested interest. Take guidance from the trusted experts.
Always use your own judgment: You must always use your own brain. Relying on the
advice of others, no matter how well intentioned it may be, is always a complete
disaster.