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Development	
  Profile	
  of	
  India	
   [Pick	
  the	
  date]	
  
	
  
	
   	
   Development	
  Profile	
  
of	
  India	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Atifa	
  Mahmoodi	
  
Student	
  ID:	
  W1348660	
  
Module	
  Leader:	
  Karen	
  Kufuor	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
MODULE:	
  BEQM608.2	
  Development	
  Economics	
  
Submission Date: Thursday 3rd April 2014, 13.00 GMT
Word count excluding appendixes, executive summary, headings, & references : 3496
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   1	
  
Executive Summary
	
  
India is the second most populated country located in south-Asia. This report looked into the
economic indicators of and analysed domestic and external policies that has contributed to
the development of India.
All data in this profile is collected form The World Bank,	
  Government of India Department of
Commerce, National bank of India, and other academic website. Raw data is collected and
plotted, graphs are manually plotted none of the graphs are copied they all drawn from the
raw data. All the currency is in USD ($).
It was found out that the Indian economy is getting healthy; the growth of industry is
increasing as a result workers are earning better, living standards improving and there is
availability of disposable income to be spend hence consumption increases.
The real economic growth of India in 2012 has declined (3.236%) compare to previous year
and so the unemployment rate (8.5%).
When the comparative research was carried out, and the HDI and GINI index of India was
compared to China the out of the research shows that though china is more populated than
India, its GPD per capita, HDI is comparatively better than India. However the GINI
coefficient indicates that there is inequality way more in china compare to India income is not
equally distributed.
A developing country like India, which has been occupied historically by several countries in
the last 2 centuries, its still struggling economic stability. The 1990s reforms has been
positive however it may not be suitable for the current situation hence there is a need for
more proficient and successful policies as adopted by other developing countries like China
and Brazil. The political frame needs to adopt long-term domestic policies, and also take into
consideration foreign policies. Transparent and equal regulation for all is suggested in order
stabilise economic growth and fully utilise the monetary policy. Monetary policy is considered
as a domestic policy and further analysed in section B.
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   2	
  
Contents
Executive Summary..........................................................................................................1
Section A ..........................................................................................................................3
1.0 India .........................................................................................................................3
2.0 Income level.............................................................................................................5
2.1 GDP Per capita ........................................................................................................5
2.2 India Vs. China Human development Index 2005-2012...........................................6
3.0 Poverty and Inequality..............................................................................................7
3.1 Gini Coefficient of India Vs. China ...........................................................................7
3.2 Poverty gap at $1.25 day and $2 a day ...................................................................8
4.0 Structure of the economy.........................................................................................9
4.1 Main Trading partners (Countries)............................................................................10
4.2 India Exports & Imports ............................................................................................11
5.0 Economic performance ..........................................................................................12
5.1 Real growth............................................................................................................12
5.2 Unemployment rate................................................................................................13
Section B ........................................................................................................................14
6.0 Domestic Policies .....................................................................................................14
Monetary policy ..............................................................................................................14
9.0 Conclusion................................................................................................................16
10.0 Bibliography............................................................................................................17
Appendix.........................................................................................................................19
A: India, Figure 1: Percentage of Rural & Urban population ..........................................19
B: Income Level..............................................................................................................19
B1: Figure 2, GDP per capita .........................................................................................19
B2: Figure 3, India Vs China Human development index...............................................19
C: Poverty and Inequality ...............................................................................................20
C1: Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India from 1989-2012 ..................................................20
C2: Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012........................................20
D: Figure 6, Structure of the economy............................................................................20
D1: Figure 7: Main Trading Partners ..............................................................................20
D2: Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported from India.......21
E: Economic performance ..............................................................................................21
E1: Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012 ............................................................21
E2: Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012 ..............................................................21
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   3	
  
Section A
1.0 India
India, located in south Asia. It has a diverse landscape from desserts to mountains. India is a
lower middle-income country and the world second most populated country after china it is
total population in 2012 was 1.237 billion in 35 states. According to (Todaro and Smith,
2012), one of the common features of developing countries is that there is a larger rural
population but rapid rural-urban migration, as the figure (1) one shows 68% of India
population lives in urban parts of India, and the remaining 32% lives in the rural parts. In the
year 2012 India had an annual real economic growth of 3.2369%, and a reald GDP per
capita of $1106.8.
This report is a development profile of India. Section (A) of this report will analyse the
comparative development indicators of India such as income level, Poverty & inequality, the
structure of the economy and it is economic performance. Furthermore it will compare and
contrast HDI, and Gini coefficient of India with china to see the relative performance of India
VS China that’s due to the facts that India & China are likewise in the same geographic
region, and population. Section (B) of this report this report will pay particular attention into
the analysis of the role and significance of domestic policies that operated in India by the
Indian government for a better development and living standards of Indian Citizens. The
domestic policy analysed in section B of this profile is the monetary policy of India.
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   4	
  
Figure 1: Where India has been lately? Percentage of Rural & Urban population
Where India has been lately?
Location South Asia Year
Population 1.237 Billion 2012
GDP $1.842 Trillion 2012
GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$) 1106.8 2012
GNI per Capita $1580 2012
Poverty Headcount Ratio 21.9% 2012
Life Expectancy at Birth 66 2011
India HDI 0.554 2012
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 56.3 2012
Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 7.49 2010
School enrolment, primary (% net) 98.65 2012
Unemployment rate (%) 8.5 2012
Gini Coefficient 0.339 2010
Real Economic Growth 3.236943273 2012
(The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix A.
68%	
  
32%	
  
India	
  2012	
  
Rural population
(% of total
population)
Urban population
(% of total)
1.237
Billion
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   5	
  
2.0 Income level
2.1 GDP Per capita
The bar graph below shows real GDP per capita of India 2000-2012 “GDP per capita is
gross domestic product divided by midyear population” (Data.worldbank.org, 2014). As it can
be seen in the figure bellow there is an upward trend in the real GDP per capita of India from
2000-2005 which clearly points to the growth in the Indian economy and productivity. In
2000 GDP per capita was $578.2 afterwards there was a steady rise in the GDP per capita
until 2004 and dramatic increase in 2006 ($797.3). Between the financial crises 2007-2008
the GDP per capita increased only by ($21.7) however there is substantial rise in the GDP
per capita in the 2012 year ($1106.8).
It can be illustrated that, the Indian economy is getting healthy; the growth of industry is
increasing as a result workers are earning better, living standards improving and there is
availability of disposable income to be spend hence consumption increases. As a result of
spending the service & manufacturing sector of the economy improves. And as the GDP per
capita tend to raise the share of agriculture declines (4.0 structure of the economy), which
indeed is a broad pattern of the developing economies.
Figure 2: India GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)
Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix B1.
0.0	
  
0.2	
  
0.4	
  
0.6	
  
0.8	
  
1.0	
  
1.2	
  
2000	
  2001	
  2002	
  2003	
  2004	
  2005	
  2006	
  2007	
  2008	
  2009	
  2010	
  2011	
  2012	
  
(USD	
  $)	
  
Thousands	
  
Year	
  
	
  India	
  	
  GDP	
  per	
  capita	
  	
  (constant	
  2005	
  US$)	
  
	
  India	
  	
  GDP	
  
per	
  capita	
  	
  
(constant	
  
2005	
  US$)	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   6	
  
2.2 India Vs. China Human development Index 2005-2012
As it was mentioned earlier in the introduction of this country profile that India will be
compared to China in terms of its HDI and GDP per capita the reason why is it compared to
china is 1st
of all they are both located in the same geographic regions secondly, India has
the second highest population after China. According to (The World Bank, 2014) India had a
total population of (1.237 billion) in 2012 and China (1.351 billion). As the figure (3) below
shows Human development Index “An index measuring national socioeconomic
development, based on combining measures of education, health, and adjusted real income
per capita” (Todaro and Smith, 2012).
As it can be seen that HDI of India is considerably lower than that of china in the same
period across the years (2005-2012) in 2005 the HDI of India was (0.504) and that of China
was (0.637). Both in India and China the HDI has rose fairly in the span of 7 years. In 2012
the HDI of India was (0.554) and that of China was (0.699). Despite the fact that India has
less population China is still better off in the living standards. This might be due to the
statistical facts by (The World Bank, 2014), 1st
an estimate of mean years of schooling in
China is 7.5 years while that of India is 4.4 years. 2nd
adult literacy rate in china is 94% and
in India is 74.04% in 2011. 3rd
the infant mortality rate in India is 56.3 per 1000 live births in
2012 and that of china is 14 per 1000 live births in the same year.
Figure 3: Human development Index of India and China from 2005-2012
Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix B2.
0.47	
  
0.48	
  
0.49	
  
0.5	
  
0.51	
  
0.52	
  
0.53	
  
0.54	
  
0.55	
  
0.56	
  
HDI	
  (0-­‐1)	
  
Year	
  
India	
  HDI	
  	
  
India
HDI
0.6	
  
0.61	
  
0.62	
  
0.63	
  
0.64	
  
0.65	
  
0.66	
  
0.67	
  
0.68	
  
0.69	
  
0.7	
  
0.71	
  
HDI	
  	
  (0-­‐1)	
  
Year	
  
China	
  HDI	
  
China	
  
HDI	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   7	
  
3.0 Poverty and Inequality
3.1 Gini Coefficient of India Vs. China
The bar-graph in figure (4) below illustrates the Gini coefficient of India Vs. China in three
different years after 5 years. According to (Todaro and Smith, 2012), Gini coefficient is “An
aggregate numerical measure of income inequality ranging from 0 (perfect equality) to 1
(perfect inequality). It is measured graphically by dividing the area between the perfect
equality line and the Lorenz curve by the total area lying to the right of the equality line in a
Lorenz diagram. The higher the value of the coefficient, the higher the inequality of income
distribution; the lower it is, the more equal the distribution of income”. The coefficient of India
and china from the graph below can be stated that the an-equal distribution of income in
India and china is widening, as it can be seen the Gini coefficient of china in 2010 was
0.4234 which way higher than that of India in the same year was 0.339. Moreover it is fast
and large widening in China compare to India. The GDP per capita of India is comparatively
lower $1034.42 than the GDP per capita of China in 2010 $2869. On the other Hand HDI of
the two countries is completely opposite of the India (HDI, 0.542) China (HDI, 0.689), thus it
can be said that equal distribution of poverty doesn’t necessarily mean that standard of living
in India is better than China.
	
  
Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India Vs China
Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix C1.
0	
  
0.05	
  
0.1	
  
0.15	
  
0.2	
  
0.25	
  
0.3	
  
0.35	
  
0.4	
  
0.45	
  
1994	
   2005	
   2010	
  
GiniCoefficient(0-1)
Year
Gini Coefficient of India Vs China
GINI	
  India	
  	
  
Gini	
  China	
  	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   8	
  
3.2 Poverty gap at $1.25 day and $2 a day
The scatter diagram below in figure (5) shows the poverty gap at $1.25 and $2 a day in the
span of 2005-2010 of India. “Poverty gap is the mean shortfall from the poverty line
(counting the non-poor as having zero shortfall), expressed as a percentage of the poverty
line. This measure reflects the depth of poverty as well as its incidence” (The World Bank,
2012).
Poverty gap has been narrowing down since mid-2005; population has been getting closer
to its poverty line. Using $2 measure indicates the poverty gap will be eradicated much
sooner than using $1.25 measure. The poverty gap at $2 a day from 2005 reduced by 5.2%
in 2010 however the poverty gap at $1.25 a day declined only by 3.02% in the same year.
Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012
Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix C2.
2005, 29.49
2010, 24.47
2005, 10.51
2010, 7.49
0	
  
5	
  
10	
  
15	
  
20	
  
25	
  
30	
  
35	
  
0	
   1	
   2	
   3	
   4	
   5	
   6	
   7	
  
Povertygapratio
Year	
  
Poverty gap at $1.25 a day & Poverty gap at $2 a
day 2005-2010
Poverty gap at
$2 a day
(PPP) (%)
Poverty gap at
$1.25 a day
(PPP) (%)
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   9	
  
4.0 Structure of the economy
The pie chart below in figure 1 shows the structure of the Indian economy in 2012. As it
indicates India is highly dependent on the services 57% of its economics structure is
services. The second largest sector of the Indian economy is Industry which accounts for
26% and 3rd sector which 17% of the economy structure allocates for agriculture	
  (Papola,
2012).
The Indian economy has been through several structural changes in the last 56 years.
During the independence times rural and agriculture were the main factors of the economy
when the new economic reforms were introduced in the early nineties. In the first 5 years the
components such as (forestry, fishing and agriculture) of the primary sector was far the
largest tailed by the tertiary and secondary sector. Subsequently the economic reforms of
modernization and openness of the Indian economy lead to higher percentage of secondary
and tertiary sector and a fall in the primary sector	
  (Dasgupta and Chakarborty, 2005). As
mentioned earlier the current Indian economy is largely dependent on services (57%) the
rapid incline of services accounts for the growth of business services & communication.
Figure 6: Structure of the economy
Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D.	
  
17%	
  
26%	
  57%	
  
Strcture	
  of	
  Indian	
  Economy	
  (2012)	
  	
  
Agriculture	
  
Industry	
  	
  
Services	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   10	
  
4.1 Main trading partners (Countries)
The figure below shows the top ten trading partners of India. The 1st
pie chart demonstrates
the percentage of imports (goods & services brought into India) India receives from its
trading partners and the 2nd
pie charts show the percentage of exports (goods and services
send to other countries) India sends to it is trading partners. As it is clearly seen that there
are top 3 countries out of the 10 from which India imports largely as it seen in the pie chart
below 17% of goods and services are imported from china in 2012, followed by the United
Arab Emirates 12% from UAE and 11% from Saudi Arabia. The 2nd
pie chart shows export
partners of India similarly to imports India largely exports to UAE 23% of its export is
delivered to UAE and USA followed by Singapore 9% and china 8% of goods and services
were exported from India to china in 2012.
Figure 7: Main Trading Partners
Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D1.
12%	
  
17%	
  
8%	
  
11%	
  
10%	
  
3%	
  
5%	
  
3%	
  
5%	
  
6%	
  
4%	
  
3%	
   5%	
  
4%	
  
4%	
  
India main Exports trading partners (Imports)
	
  United	
  Arab	
  Emirates	
  
	
  China	
  
	
  United	
  States	
  
	
  Saudi	
  Arabia	
  
	
  	
  Switzerland	
  
	
  Singapore	
  
	
  Germany	
  
	
  Hong	
  Kong	
  
	
  Indonesia	
  
	
  Iraq	
  
	
  Japan	
  
	
  Belgium	
  
	
  Kuwait	
  
	
  Iran	
  
	
  South	
  Korea	
  
1
23%	
  
8%	
  
23%	
  6%	
  
1%	
  
9%	
  
5%	
  
8%	
  
3%	
  
1%	
  
4%	
   3%	
  
1%	
  2%	
  3%	
  
India main Exports trading partners (Export)
	
  United	
  Arab	
  Emirates	
  
	
  China	
  
	
  United	
  States	
  
	
  Saudi	
  Arabia	
  
	
  	
  Switzerland	
  
	
  Singapore	
  
	
  Germany	
  
	
  Hong	
  Kong	
  
	
  Indonesia	
  
	
  Iraq	
  
	
  Japan	
  
	
  Belgium	
  
	
  Kuwait	
  
	
  Iran	
  
	
  South	
  Korea	
  
2
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   11	
  
	
  
4.2 India Exports & Imports
The following pie charts illustrates the percentage of each goods and services exported and
imported into and from India. The pie chart at the left hand side represents the types of
goods and services exported from India and the pie chart hand side represents the goods
and services imported into India from its trading partners.
The as it shown the demand for Indian petroleum products is highest that’s 27%, followed by
the demand for gems and jewellery according to (Government of India, Department of
Commerce, 2012) 23% of Indian export accumulates gems & jewellery, an 11% of its export
to its trading partners are the pharmaceutical products. In return an India demand from its
trading partners is largely petroleum crude which accounts for 40% of its total imported items
in 2012. The second highest demand for foreign goods in India is 16% of the gold and
silver, and 9% of electronic goods.
Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported from India
	
   	
  
Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D2.
27%	
  
23%	
  
11%	
  
10%	
  
7%	
  
7%	
  
5%	
  
4%	
  
3%	
  
3%	
  
India's Top Export Items
Petroleum products
Gems & Jewellery
Pharma Products
Transport Equipments
Machinery &
Instruments
Readymade Garments
Manufactures of Metals
Electronic Goods
Rubber, Glass &
Products
Cotton Yarn & Fabrics
40%	
  
16%	
  
9%	
  
8%	
  
8%	
  
5%	
  
4%	
  
4%	
  
3%	
  
3%	
  
India	
  Top	
  Import	
  Items	
  
Petroleum Crude
Gold & Silver
Electronic Goods
Pearls & Precious Stones
Non-electrical machinery
Organic & Inorganic
Chemicals
Coal, Coke & briquettes
Transport Equipment
Metalliferrous Ores &
Products
Iron & Steel
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   12	
  
5.0 Economic performance
5.1 Real growth
Unlike any developing countries the Indian economy is steadily rising India has seen many
turns and twists during since the independence of India -2012 as the figure below illustrates
the real economic growth of India. As it is clearly seen in 2008 there is a shock in the real
growth, this could be due the collapse in the Lehman brothers when the global financial firm
went bankrupt in September 2008 and caused financial crisis. As USA is one of the main
trading partners of India both in terms of exports (23%), and imports (8%). The demand for
export in 2008 dropped rapidly and emerging economies such as India were hit badly.
Theoretically, real economic growth considers the changes in inflation as inflation plays an
important role in the GDP of any economy. It takes the purchasing power into consideration
and the adjustment of inflation. In case of India in 2008 real economic growth was only 3.890
% however there is significant increase in 2009 continued to 2010 accounted for 10.54%.
Nevertheless the growth rate did not stay sound there is a dramatic decline in 2011 followed
by 2012 this was caused by the government reforms which aim to shrink their budget deficit
“from 4.8% of GDP in fiscal year of 2010-2011 to 3.7%” (Rbi.org.in, 2014). According to the
(The World Bank, 2014) the real economic growth of India has been decreasing for the two
consecutive years 2011-2012 as in 2011 it was 6.33% and 2012 it was nearly halved to
3.23% this was largely due to higher inflation which declined “private final consumption
expenditure” (CEIC, 2014).
Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012
Source: (The World Bank, 2014) further refer to appendix E1.
0	
  
2	
  
4	
  
6	
  
8	
  
10	
  
12	
  
2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
   2011	
   2012	
  
%	
  of	
  real	
  Econonmic	
  growth	
  	
  
Year	
  
India	
  Real	
  Economic	
  growth	
  2005-­‐2012	
  
Real	
  
Economic	
  
growth	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   13	
  
5.2 Unemployment rate
The bar graph (figure10) bellow shows the unemployment rate in India from 2005-2012.
There are several fluctuations in the unemployment rate in India from 2005-2012. During
2008 the unemployment rate was far the lowest in the last 8 years it accounted for 6.8%,
however it significantly increased in 2009 (10.7%). Many factors caused the unemployment
rate in India there was transaction in the structure of the economy as the Indian economy
transformed from agriculture dependent to Services dependent. A specific problem was the
work force in the agriculture was the highest but it struggled to create more than enough
jobs. This caused migration of people from rural to cities. As the skills of agriculture do not
meet the skills of services it was difficult for India to create jobs between the two different
sectors. The unemployment rate continued to increase until 2010 (10.8%). And declined to
8.5% in 2012.
Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012
	
  
Source: (Indexmundi.com, 2013), further refer to appendix E2.
9.9	
  
7.8	
  
7.2	
   6.8	
  
10.7	
   10.8	
  
9.8	
  
8.5	
  
0	
  
2	
  
4	
  
6	
  
8	
  
10	
  
12	
  
2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
   2011	
   2012	
  
Percentage	
  %	
  
Year	
  
India	
  Unemployment	
  rate	
  2005-­‐2012	
  
Unemployment	
  
rate	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   14	
  
Section B
6.0 Domestic Policies
Monetary policy
	
  
The ( RBI) reserve bank of India plays a major role as a financial & monetary institution it’s
the reserve bank of India which sets the monetary policy, and its aim and objections. The
key role played by RBI is “money Supply” and “the rate of interest” which has a significant
impact on both inflation and rate of employment in the Indian economy. From the early 90s
reforms India has goaled to maintain a high economic growth, stable prices and equal social
integrity all across the India (The Economic Times, 2014).
Some rules were prioritised during the reform, such as 1st
the “cash reserve ratio” (CRR) and
the “Statutory liquidity ratio” (SLR) are reduced slowly in the period of the reform from 15+
percentages incremental “CRR” of 10.5 percentage into a 6 level, and the “SLR” is
decreased from30.5 % to 24%, which has increased loanable funds in the commercial banks
(Mehta, 2011). The reserve bank of India, administrates the Indian monetary policy
throughout “open Market operation, bank rate policy, reserve system, credit control policy,
and various other instruments” by aiming to changes in the interest rate, and “money supply”.
Currently The Bank of India aims to lower the general level of prices, by taking into
consideration the supply of money, and the extension of the credit in order to reach the
necessity of multi sector of the Indian economy to stabilise economic development.
Secondly, the reform focused the improvement and availability of the micro finance banking
system in rural part of India, for instance “self help group”. The third priority was
diversification of the banking sector, for the sake of maintaining the monetary method in
India. The banks of ICICI “Industrial credit and investment corporation of India”, and UTI
“Unit trust of India” has challenged the public banks in India into high teach, innovation and
competitiveness in the private banking sector which forced the banks to find “subsidiaries in
Mutual funds, merchant banking, Venture capital, insurance etc”. (Rbi.org.in, 2014)
Further more, the early 90s reforms, aimed to improve growth and stability in the Indian
economy, which were taken into consideration in the monetary policy. There was a
considerable improvement in the use of advance technology and transparent banking
system, for instance identifying income source. In addition, the trade sector also adopted
many regulation, such as decline in the tariffs, control on imports, and “general trade
liberalisation” and etc.
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   15	
  
The growth of money supply was higher than predicted they expected to be 15.5% in 2011,
however it was 1.2% more than its actual predication, which caused a higher rise in term
deposits and control of the currency growth. Liquidity continued in the deficit, and an
increase in day to day borrowing which caused depreciation of the Indian currency (Mehta,
2011). The monetary policy of India face many phases during 1991, though there has been
may adjustment in the monetary policy, however the structure stays the same as it was back
in the 90s.
As the Indian currency depreciated, and GDP was and caused and India had low growth
level compare to a developing country. The Reserve Bank of India realised the importance of
clarity and transparency of the monetary policy and the new governor of RBI announced a
new modifications, Dr. Raghuram Rajan announced mid-quarter changes in the monetary
policy. In his monetary policy he declared that the aim of the policy is to reduce the rate of
inflation and improve the growth rate of the Indian economy (Mehta, 2011). “The changes
included cutting down the MSF (Marginal standing facility rate) by 75 basis points and
reducing the daily minimum CRR balance to 95% of the current requirement” (Mehta, 2011).
Currently the monetary policy in India aim to focus on “easing the liquidity” and trying to slim
down the “the current account deficit”. High inflation and depreciation of the currency is a
burden in the balance sheets of corporates and banks. As the inflation is the core element of
the Reserve Bank of India, hence its taking measures to maintain the inflation rate by
controlling the “money supply” and “real interest rate” in the Indian economy.
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   16	
  
9.0 Conclusion
Thus, to conclude there are been an enormous structural changes in the Indian economy, it
has been changing after the independence from highly dependent on agriculture to services.
According (Ranjan, and Gorantla, 2013) they argue, that “Although India is possessing a
large domestic market, broad based industrial and infrastructure sectors, abundant supply of
cheap labour, a huge number of educated and trained manpower and adequate natural
resources to attain competitiveness India has yet to reap the benefits of such changes to the
fullest extent”.
It was found out that the living standard of chines citizens is better compare to that of India it
was compared by the human development index (HDI), in 2012 the HDI of India was (0.554)
and that of China was (0.699). Even though there an equal distribution of income in India
compare to China. Several economic and social reforms have been taken into action in India
for various reasons, such as sustainable economic growth, improving the living standards of
the Indian citizens and, global competitiveness. As in this profile we looked at the monetary
policy as a domestic policy.
A developing country like India, which has been occupied historically by several countries in
the last 2 centuries, its still struggling economic stability. The 1990s reforms has been
positive however it may not be suitable for the current situation hence there is a need for
more proficient and successful policies as adopted by other developing countries like China
and Brazil. The political frame needs to adopt long-term domestic policies, and also take into
consideration foreign policies. Transparent and equal regulation for all is suggested in order
stabilise economic growth and fully utilise the monetary policy. Theoretical developing
countries have a intense corruption and “shadow markets” paying a particular attention into
them may led to faster economic growth & development. “Dominance of Cash Transaction
impacts the money supply mechanism and regulatory distortions in the economy (Mehta,
2011)”. Launching a control mechanism on the “money supply “ will led the economy grow in
a more suitable routes and in a further systematized manner (Sinha, 2013).
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   17	
  
10.0 Bibliography
Ahluwalia, M. S., (2014). Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?.
[Online] Available at:
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jep/2002/00000016/00000003/art00005
[Accessed: 25 Apr 2014].
Bank, T. W., (2014). India | Data. [Online] Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/country/india
[Accessed: 26 Mar 2014].
Censusindia.gov.in., (2014). Census of India Website: Office of the Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, India. [online] Available at: http://censusindia.gov.in/ [Accessed: 25 Apr
2014].
Chadha, R., Deardorff, A. V., Pohit, S. and M. Stern, R., (1998). The Impact of Trade and
Domestic Policy Reforms in India. [Online] Available at:
http://muse.jhu.edu/books/9780472026937 [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014].
Ciaonet.org.,(2008). Columbia Discovery Service. [Online] Available at:
http://www.ciaonet.org/atlas/IN/Economy/Economic_structure/20080808_16719.html
[Accessed: 26 Mar 2014].
Dasgupta, P. and Chakarborty, D., (2005). The Structure of the Indian Economy. [online]
Available at: https://www.iioa.org/conferences/15th/pdf/dasguptachakraborty.pdf [Accessed:
2 Apr 2014].
Data.worldbank.org. 2014. India | Data. [Online] Available at:
http://data.worldbank.org/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014].
Destradi, S., (2014). Domestic Politics and Regional Hegemony: India’s Approach to Sri Lanka.
[online] Available at: http://www.e-ir.info/2014/01/14/domestic-politics-and-regional-
hegemony-indias-approach-to-sri-lanka/ [Accessed: 30 Mar 2014].
Heritage.org.,( 2014). Indian Economy: Population, Facts, GDP, Corruption, Business, Trade,
FDI. [Online] Available at: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar
2014].
Heritage.org.,( 2014). Indian Economy: Population, Facts, GDP, Corruption, Business, Trade,
FDI. [Online] Available at: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar
2014].
Indexmundi.com.,( 2013). India - Unemployment rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year. [Online]
Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=in&v=74 [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014].
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   18	
  
Indexmundi.com., (2013). India - Unemployment rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year. [Online]
Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=in&v=74 [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014].
Mishra, A. R., 31st
may, (2013), ‘India’s GDP growth hits decade-low of 5% in 2012-13’, Live Mint
& The Wall Street Journal, Available at:
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/f530wJzqObGfGk4OII6ljJ/GDP-growth-hits-decadelow-of-5-in-
201213.html [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014].
Nirupam, B.,( 2003). India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals | Human Development
Reports. [online] Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/india-towards-millennium-
development-goals [Accessed: 26 Mar 2014].
Papola, T., (2012). STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE INDIAN ECONOMY Emerging Patterns
an d Implications. [online] Available at: http://58.68.105.147/pdf/WP1202.pdf [Accessed: 25
Mar 2014].
Price, D. G.,( 2011). For the Global Good India’s Developing International Role. [online] Available
at:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/r_indiarole0511.pdf
[Accessed: 25 Mar 2014].
Ranjan, A. K. and Gorantla, B. R., (2013). Progress towards achieving the Millennium
Development Goals 2015 | Social Watch. [Online] Available at:
http://www.socialwatch.org/node/15910 [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014].
Ranjan, A. K. and Gorantla, B. R.,(2013). Progress towards achieving the Millennium
Development Goals 2015 | Social Watch. [online] Available at:
http://www.socialwatch.org/node/15910 [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014].
Rbi.org.in.,(2014). Reserve Bank of India. [online] Available at:
http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx [Accessed: 2 Apr 2014].
Reddy, H., R Pradhan, M., Ghosh, R. and Khan, A. G.,(2012). India’s progress towards the
Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on infant and maternal mortality. [online] Available
at: http://www.searo.who.int/publications/journals/seajph/whoseajphv1i3p279.pdf [Accessed:
31 Mar 2014].
Reddy, H., R Pradhan, M., Ghosh, R. and Khan, A. G.,(2012). India’s progress towards the
Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on infant and maternal mortality. [online] Available
at: http://www.searo.who.int/publications/journals/seajph/whoseajphv1i3p279.pdf [Accessed:
31 Mar 2014].
Todaro, M. P. and Smith, S. C., (2012). Economic development. Boston, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   19	
  
Appendix
A: India, Figure 1: Percentage of Rural & Urban population
	
  
Year Rural population (% of total population) Urban population (% of total)
2012 68.34 31.66
	
  
B: Income Level
B1: Figure 2, GDP per capita
	
   GDP	
  per	
  capita	
  (constant	
  2005	
  US$)	
  
Year	
   India	
  	
  
2000	
   578.2	
  
2001	
   596.2	
  
2002	
   609.0	
  
2003	
   646.7	
  
2004	
   687.3	
  
2005	
   740.1	
  
2006	
   797.3	
  
2007	
   863.5	
  
2008	
   885.2	
  
2009	
   947.7	
  
2010	
   1034.2	
  
2011	
   1085.7	
  
2012	
   1106.8	
  
	
  
B2: Figure 3, India Vs China Human development index
Year India HDI China HDI
2005 0.504 0.637
2006 0.512 0.65
2007 0.523 0.662
2008 0.527 0.672
2009 0.535 0.68
2010 0.542 0.689
2011 0.547 0.695
2012 0.554 0.699
	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   20	
  
C: Poverty and Inequality
C1: Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India from 1989-2012
	
  
Year	
  	
   GINI	
  Coefficient	
  India	
  	
   Gini	
  Coefficient	
  China	
  	
  
1994	
   0.3082	
   0.355	
  
2005	
   0.3338	
   0.4248	
  
2010	
   0.339	
   0.4234	
  
C2: Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012
Year	
   Poverty	
  gap	
  at	
  $1.25	
  a	
  day	
  (PPP)	
  (%)	
  
2005	
   10.51	
  
2006	
   	
  
2007	
   	
  
2008	
   	
  
2009	
   	
  
2010	
   7.49	
  
	
  
D: Figure 6, Structure of the economy
	
  
Year Agriculture Industry Services
2012 17.4 26.1 56.5
	
  
D1: Figure 7: Main Trading Partners
Country Exports Imports
United Arab Emirates 36,265.15 38,436.47
China 13,503.00 54,324.04
United States 36,152.30 24,343.73
Saudi Arabia 9783.81 34,130.50
Switzerland 1,116.98 29,915.78
Singapore 13,608.65 7,754.38
Germany 7,244.63 14,373.91
Hong Kong 12,278.31 8,078.58
Indonesia 5,331.47 14,774.27
Iraq 1,278.13 20,155.94
Japan 6,099.06 12,514.07
Belgium 5,506.63 10,087.16
Kuwait 1,060.80 16,569.63
Iran 3,351.07 11,603.79
South Korea 4,201.49 13,461.25
	
  
Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics
	
  
	
   21	
  
D2: Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported
from India
India's trade basket
Top Export Items (FY 2012) US$ bn Top Import Items (FY 2012) US$ bn
Petroleum products 56 Petroleum Crude 155
Gems & Jewellery 47 Gold & Silver 62
Pharmaceutical Products 24 Electronic Goods 33
Transport Equipment’s 21 Pearls & Precious Stones 31
Machinery & Instruments 14 Non-electrical machinery 30
Readymade Garments 14 Organic & Inorganic Chemicals 19
Manufactures of Metals 10 Coal, Coke & briquettes 17
Electronic Goods 9 Transport Equipment 14
Rubber, Glass & Products 7 Metalliferrous Ores & Products 13
Cotton Yarn & Fabrics 7 Iron & Steel 12
	
  
E: Economic performance
E1: Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012
GDP (constant 2005 US$) Consumer price index (2005 =
100)
Real Economic
growth
834215013542.69 100.00 9.284831501
911496398332.55 106.15 9.26396475
1000835444693.22 112.91 9.801360326
1039777522245.86 122.34 3.890957076
1127948409206.48 135.64 8.479783903
1246906269979.25 151.91 10.546392
1325841890242.58 165.37 6.330517551
1368758640113.53 180.77 3.236943273
	
  
E2: Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012
Year Unemployment rate (%)
2005 9.9
2006 7.8
2007 7.2
2008 6.8
2009 10.7
2010 10.8
2011 9.8
2012 8.5
	
  

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India_Development_Profile_Atifa_Mahmoodi_03_04_2014_w1348660

  • 1. Development  Profile  of  India   [Pick  the  date]         Development  Profile   of  India           Atifa  Mahmoodi   Student  ID:  W1348660   Module  Leader:  Karen  Kufuor         MODULE:  BEQM608.2  Development  Economics   Submission Date: Thursday 3rd April 2014, 13.00 GMT Word count excluding appendixes, executive summary, headings, & references : 3496
  • 2. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     1   Executive Summary   India is the second most populated country located in south-Asia. This report looked into the economic indicators of and analysed domestic and external policies that has contributed to the development of India. All data in this profile is collected form The World Bank,  Government of India Department of Commerce, National bank of India, and other academic website. Raw data is collected and plotted, graphs are manually plotted none of the graphs are copied they all drawn from the raw data. All the currency is in USD ($). It was found out that the Indian economy is getting healthy; the growth of industry is increasing as a result workers are earning better, living standards improving and there is availability of disposable income to be spend hence consumption increases. The real economic growth of India in 2012 has declined (3.236%) compare to previous year and so the unemployment rate (8.5%). When the comparative research was carried out, and the HDI and GINI index of India was compared to China the out of the research shows that though china is more populated than India, its GPD per capita, HDI is comparatively better than India. However the GINI coefficient indicates that there is inequality way more in china compare to India income is not equally distributed. A developing country like India, which has been occupied historically by several countries in the last 2 centuries, its still struggling economic stability. The 1990s reforms has been positive however it may not be suitable for the current situation hence there is a need for more proficient and successful policies as adopted by other developing countries like China and Brazil. The political frame needs to adopt long-term domestic policies, and also take into consideration foreign policies. Transparent and equal regulation for all is suggested in order stabilise economic growth and fully utilise the monetary policy. Monetary policy is considered as a domestic policy and further analysed in section B.
  • 3. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     2   Contents Executive Summary..........................................................................................................1 Section A ..........................................................................................................................3 1.0 India .........................................................................................................................3 2.0 Income level.............................................................................................................5 2.1 GDP Per capita ........................................................................................................5 2.2 India Vs. China Human development Index 2005-2012...........................................6 3.0 Poverty and Inequality..............................................................................................7 3.1 Gini Coefficient of India Vs. China ...........................................................................7 3.2 Poverty gap at $1.25 day and $2 a day ...................................................................8 4.0 Structure of the economy.........................................................................................9 4.1 Main Trading partners (Countries)............................................................................10 4.2 India Exports & Imports ............................................................................................11 5.0 Economic performance ..........................................................................................12 5.1 Real growth............................................................................................................12 5.2 Unemployment rate................................................................................................13 Section B ........................................................................................................................14 6.0 Domestic Policies .....................................................................................................14 Monetary policy ..............................................................................................................14 9.0 Conclusion................................................................................................................16 10.0 Bibliography............................................................................................................17 Appendix.........................................................................................................................19 A: India, Figure 1: Percentage of Rural & Urban population ..........................................19 B: Income Level..............................................................................................................19 B1: Figure 2, GDP per capita .........................................................................................19 B2: Figure 3, India Vs China Human development index...............................................19 C: Poverty and Inequality ...............................................................................................20 C1: Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India from 1989-2012 ..................................................20 C2: Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012........................................20 D: Figure 6, Structure of the economy............................................................................20 D1: Figure 7: Main Trading Partners ..............................................................................20 D2: Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported from India.......21 E: Economic performance ..............................................................................................21 E1: Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012 ............................................................21 E2: Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012 ..............................................................21
  • 4. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     3   Section A 1.0 India India, located in south Asia. It has a diverse landscape from desserts to mountains. India is a lower middle-income country and the world second most populated country after china it is total population in 2012 was 1.237 billion in 35 states. According to (Todaro and Smith, 2012), one of the common features of developing countries is that there is a larger rural population but rapid rural-urban migration, as the figure (1) one shows 68% of India population lives in urban parts of India, and the remaining 32% lives in the rural parts. In the year 2012 India had an annual real economic growth of 3.2369%, and a reald GDP per capita of $1106.8. This report is a development profile of India. Section (A) of this report will analyse the comparative development indicators of India such as income level, Poverty & inequality, the structure of the economy and it is economic performance. Furthermore it will compare and contrast HDI, and Gini coefficient of India with china to see the relative performance of India VS China that’s due to the facts that India & China are likewise in the same geographic region, and population. Section (B) of this report this report will pay particular attention into the analysis of the role and significance of domestic policies that operated in India by the Indian government for a better development and living standards of Indian Citizens. The domestic policy analysed in section B of this profile is the monetary policy of India.
  • 5. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     4   Figure 1: Where India has been lately? Percentage of Rural & Urban population Where India has been lately? Location South Asia Year Population 1.237 Billion 2012 GDP $1.842 Trillion 2012 GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$) 1106.8 2012 GNI per Capita $1580 2012 Poverty Headcount Ratio 21.9% 2012 Life Expectancy at Birth 66 2011 India HDI 0.554 2012 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 56.3 2012 Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 7.49 2010 School enrolment, primary (% net) 98.65 2012 Unemployment rate (%) 8.5 2012 Gini Coefficient 0.339 2010 Real Economic Growth 3.236943273 2012 (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix A. 68%   32%   India  2012   Rural population (% of total population) Urban population (% of total) 1.237 Billion
  • 6. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     5   2.0 Income level 2.1 GDP Per capita The bar graph below shows real GDP per capita of India 2000-2012 “GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population” (Data.worldbank.org, 2014). As it can be seen in the figure bellow there is an upward trend in the real GDP per capita of India from 2000-2005 which clearly points to the growth in the Indian economy and productivity. In 2000 GDP per capita was $578.2 afterwards there was a steady rise in the GDP per capita until 2004 and dramatic increase in 2006 ($797.3). Between the financial crises 2007-2008 the GDP per capita increased only by ($21.7) however there is substantial rise in the GDP per capita in the 2012 year ($1106.8). It can be illustrated that, the Indian economy is getting healthy; the growth of industry is increasing as a result workers are earning better, living standards improving and there is availability of disposable income to be spend hence consumption increases. As a result of spending the service & manufacturing sector of the economy improves. And as the GDP per capita tend to raise the share of agriculture declines (4.0 structure of the economy), which indeed is a broad pattern of the developing economies. Figure 2: India GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$) Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix B1. 0.0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1.0   1.2   2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012   (USD  $)   Thousands   Year    India    GDP  per  capita    (constant  2005  US$)    India    GDP   per  capita     (constant   2005  US$)  
  • 7. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     6   2.2 India Vs. China Human development Index 2005-2012 As it was mentioned earlier in the introduction of this country profile that India will be compared to China in terms of its HDI and GDP per capita the reason why is it compared to china is 1st of all they are both located in the same geographic regions secondly, India has the second highest population after China. According to (The World Bank, 2014) India had a total population of (1.237 billion) in 2012 and China (1.351 billion). As the figure (3) below shows Human development Index “An index measuring national socioeconomic development, based on combining measures of education, health, and adjusted real income per capita” (Todaro and Smith, 2012). As it can be seen that HDI of India is considerably lower than that of china in the same period across the years (2005-2012) in 2005 the HDI of India was (0.504) and that of China was (0.637). Both in India and China the HDI has rose fairly in the span of 7 years. In 2012 the HDI of India was (0.554) and that of China was (0.699). Despite the fact that India has less population China is still better off in the living standards. This might be due to the statistical facts by (The World Bank, 2014), 1st an estimate of mean years of schooling in China is 7.5 years while that of India is 4.4 years. 2nd adult literacy rate in china is 94% and in India is 74.04% in 2011. 3rd the infant mortality rate in India is 56.3 per 1000 live births in 2012 and that of china is 14 per 1000 live births in the same year. Figure 3: Human development Index of India and China from 2005-2012 Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix B2. 0.47   0.48   0.49   0.5   0.51   0.52   0.53   0.54   0.55   0.56   HDI  (0-­‐1)   Year   India  HDI     India HDI 0.6   0.61   0.62   0.63   0.64   0.65   0.66   0.67   0.68   0.69   0.7   0.71   HDI    (0-­‐1)   Year   China  HDI   China   HDI  
  • 8. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     7   3.0 Poverty and Inequality 3.1 Gini Coefficient of India Vs. China The bar-graph in figure (4) below illustrates the Gini coefficient of India Vs. China in three different years after 5 years. According to (Todaro and Smith, 2012), Gini coefficient is “An aggregate numerical measure of income inequality ranging from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality). It is measured graphically by dividing the area between the perfect equality line and the Lorenz curve by the total area lying to the right of the equality line in a Lorenz diagram. The higher the value of the coefficient, the higher the inequality of income distribution; the lower it is, the more equal the distribution of income”. The coefficient of India and china from the graph below can be stated that the an-equal distribution of income in India and china is widening, as it can be seen the Gini coefficient of china in 2010 was 0.4234 which way higher than that of India in the same year was 0.339. Moreover it is fast and large widening in China compare to India. The GDP per capita of India is comparatively lower $1034.42 than the GDP per capita of China in 2010 $2869. On the other Hand HDI of the two countries is completely opposite of the India (HDI, 0.542) China (HDI, 0.689), thus it can be said that equal distribution of poverty doesn’t necessarily mean that standard of living in India is better than China.   Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India Vs China Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix C1. 0   0.05   0.1   0.15   0.2   0.25   0.3   0.35   0.4   0.45   1994   2005   2010   GiniCoefficient(0-1) Year Gini Coefficient of India Vs China GINI  India     Gini  China    
  • 9. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     8   3.2 Poverty gap at $1.25 day and $2 a day The scatter diagram below in figure (5) shows the poverty gap at $1.25 and $2 a day in the span of 2005-2010 of India. “Poverty gap is the mean shortfall from the poverty line (counting the non-poor as having zero shortfall), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. This measure reflects the depth of poverty as well as its incidence” (The World Bank, 2012). Poverty gap has been narrowing down since mid-2005; population has been getting closer to its poverty line. Using $2 measure indicates the poverty gap will be eradicated much sooner than using $1.25 measure. The poverty gap at $2 a day from 2005 reduced by 5.2% in 2010 however the poverty gap at $1.25 a day declined only by 3.02% in the same year. Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012 Source: (The World Bank, 2012), further refer to appendix C2. 2005, 29.49 2010, 24.47 2005, 10.51 2010, 7.49 0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   Povertygapratio Year   Poverty gap at $1.25 a day & Poverty gap at $2 a day 2005-2010 Poverty gap at $2 a day (PPP) (%) Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)
  • 10. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     9   4.0 Structure of the economy The pie chart below in figure 1 shows the structure of the Indian economy in 2012. As it indicates India is highly dependent on the services 57% of its economics structure is services. The second largest sector of the Indian economy is Industry which accounts for 26% and 3rd sector which 17% of the economy structure allocates for agriculture  (Papola, 2012). The Indian economy has been through several structural changes in the last 56 years. During the independence times rural and agriculture were the main factors of the economy when the new economic reforms were introduced in the early nineties. In the first 5 years the components such as (forestry, fishing and agriculture) of the primary sector was far the largest tailed by the tertiary and secondary sector. Subsequently the economic reforms of modernization and openness of the Indian economy lead to higher percentage of secondary and tertiary sector and a fall in the primary sector  (Dasgupta and Chakarborty, 2005). As mentioned earlier the current Indian economy is largely dependent on services (57%) the rapid incline of services accounts for the growth of business services & communication. Figure 6: Structure of the economy Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D.   17%   26%  57%   Strcture  of  Indian  Economy  (2012)     Agriculture   Industry     Services  
  • 11. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     10   4.1 Main trading partners (Countries) The figure below shows the top ten trading partners of India. The 1st pie chart demonstrates the percentage of imports (goods & services brought into India) India receives from its trading partners and the 2nd pie charts show the percentage of exports (goods and services send to other countries) India sends to it is trading partners. As it is clearly seen that there are top 3 countries out of the 10 from which India imports largely as it seen in the pie chart below 17% of goods and services are imported from china in 2012, followed by the United Arab Emirates 12% from UAE and 11% from Saudi Arabia. The 2nd pie chart shows export partners of India similarly to imports India largely exports to UAE 23% of its export is delivered to UAE and USA followed by Singapore 9% and china 8% of goods and services were exported from India to china in 2012. Figure 7: Main Trading Partners Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D1. 12%   17%   8%   11%   10%   3%   5%   3%   5%   6%   4%   3%   5%   4%   4%   India main Exports trading partners (Imports)  United  Arab  Emirates    China    United  States    Saudi  Arabia      Switzerland    Singapore    Germany    Hong  Kong    Indonesia    Iraq    Japan    Belgium    Kuwait    Iran    South  Korea   1 23%   8%   23%  6%   1%   9%   5%   8%   3%   1%   4%   3%   1%  2%  3%   India main Exports trading partners (Export)  United  Arab  Emirates    China    United  States    Saudi  Arabia      Switzerland    Singapore    Germany    Hong  Kong    Indonesia    Iraq    Japan    Belgium    Kuwait    Iran    South  Korea   2
  • 12. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     11     4.2 India Exports & Imports The following pie charts illustrates the percentage of each goods and services exported and imported into and from India. The pie chart at the left hand side represents the types of goods and services exported from India and the pie chart hand side represents the goods and services imported into India from its trading partners. The as it shown the demand for Indian petroleum products is highest that’s 27%, followed by the demand for gems and jewellery according to (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012) 23% of Indian export accumulates gems & jewellery, an 11% of its export to its trading partners are the pharmaceutical products. In return an India demand from its trading partners is largely petroleum crude which accounts for 40% of its total imported items in 2012. The second highest demand for foreign goods in India is 16% of the gold and silver, and 9% of electronic goods. Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported from India     Source: (Government of India, Department of Commerce, 2012), further refer to appendix D2. 27%   23%   11%   10%   7%   7%   5%   4%   3%   3%   India's Top Export Items Petroleum products Gems & Jewellery Pharma Products Transport Equipments Machinery & Instruments Readymade Garments Manufactures of Metals Electronic Goods Rubber, Glass & Products Cotton Yarn & Fabrics 40%   16%   9%   8%   8%   5%   4%   4%   3%   3%   India  Top  Import  Items   Petroleum Crude Gold & Silver Electronic Goods Pearls & Precious Stones Non-electrical machinery Organic & Inorganic Chemicals Coal, Coke & briquettes Transport Equipment Metalliferrous Ores & Products Iron & Steel
  • 13. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     12   5.0 Economic performance 5.1 Real growth Unlike any developing countries the Indian economy is steadily rising India has seen many turns and twists during since the independence of India -2012 as the figure below illustrates the real economic growth of India. As it is clearly seen in 2008 there is a shock in the real growth, this could be due the collapse in the Lehman brothers when the global financial firm went bankrupt in September 2008 and caused financial crisis. As USA is one of the main trading partners of India both in terms of exports (23%), and imports (8%). The demand for export in 2008 dropped rapidly and emerging economies such as India were hit badly. Theoretically, real economic growth considers the changes in inflation as inflation plays an important role in the GDP of any economy. It takes the purchasing power into consideration and the adjustment of inflation. In case of India in 2008 real economic growth was only 3.890 % however there is significant increase in 2009 continued to 2010 accounted for 10.54%. Nevertheless the growth rate did not stay sound there is a dramatic decline in 2011 followed by 2012 this was caused by the government reforms which aim to shrink their budget deficit “from 4.8% of GDP in fiscal year of 2010-2011 to 3.7%” (Rbi.org.in, 2014). According to the (The World Bank, 2014) the real economic growth of India has been decreasing for the two consecutive years 2011-2012 as in 2011 it was 6.33% and 2012 it was nearly halved to 3.23% this was largely due to higher inflation which declined “private final consumption expenditure” (CEIC, 2014). Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012 Source: (The World Bank, 2014) further refer to appendix E1. 0   2   4   6   8   10   12   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   %  of  real  Econonmic  growth     Year   India  Real  Economic  growth  2005-­‐2012   Real   Economic   growth  
  • 14. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     13   5.2 Unemployment rate The bar graph (figure10) bellow shows the unemployment rate in India from 2005-2012. There are several fluctuations in the unemployment rate in India from 2005-2012. During 2008 the unemployment rate was far the lowest in the last 8 years it accounted for 6.8%, however it significantly increased in 2009 (10.7%). Many factors caused the unemployment rate in India there was transaction in the structure of the economy as the Indian economy transformed from agriculture dependent to Services dependent. A specific problem was the work force in the agriculture was the highest but it struggled to create more than enough jobs. This caused migration of people from rural to cities. As the skills of agriculture do not meet the skills of services it was difficult for India to create jobs between the two different sectors. The unemployment rate continued to increase until 2010 (10.8%). And declined to 8.5% in 2012. Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012   Source: (Indexmundi.com, 2013), further refer to appendix E2. 9.9   7.8   7.2   6.8   10.7   10.8   9.8   8.5   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   Percentage  %   Year   India  Unemployment  rate  2005-­‐2012   Unemployment   rate  
  • 15. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     14   Section B 6.0 Domestic Policies Monetary policy   The ( RBI) reserve bank of India plays a major role as a financial & monetary institution it’s the reserve bank of India which sets the monetary policy, and its aim and objections. The key role played by RBI is “money Supply” and “the rate of interest” which has a significant impact on both inflation and rate of employment in the Indian economy. From the early 90s reforms India has goaled to maintain a high economic growth, stable prices and equal social integrity all across the India (The Economic Times, 2014). Some rules were prioritised during the reform, such as 1st the “cash reserve ratio” (CRR) and the “Statutory liquidity ratio” (SLR) are reduced slowly in the period of the reform from 15+ percentages incremental “CRR” of 10.5 percentage into a 6 level, and the “SLR” is decreased from30.5 % to 24%, which has increased loanable funds in the commercial banks (Mehta, 2011). The reserve bank of India, administrates the Indian monetary policy throughout “open Market operation, bank rate policy, reserve system, credit control policy, and various other instruments” by aiming to changes in the interest rate, and “money supply”. Currently The Bank of India aims to lower the general level of prices, by taking into consideration the supply of money, and the extension of the credit in order to reach the necessity of multi sector of the Indian economy to stabilise economic development. Secondly, the reform focused the improvement and availability of the micro finance banking system in rural part of India, for instance “self help group”. The third priority was diversification of the banking sector, for the sake of maintaining the monetary method in India. The banks of ICICI “Industrial credit and investment corporation of India”, and UTI “Unit trust of India” has challenged the public banks in India into high teach, innovation and competitiveness in the private banking sector which forced the banks to find “subsidiaries in Mutual funds, merchant banking, Venture capital, insurance etc”. (Rbi.org.in, 2014) Further more, the early 90s reforms, aimed to improve growth and stability in the Indian economy, which were taken into consideration in the monetary policy. There was a considerable improvement in the use of advance technology and transparent banking system, for instance identifying income source. In addition, the trade sector also adopted many regulation, such as decline in the tariffs, control on imports, and “general trade liberalisation” and etc.
  • 16. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     15   The growth of money supply was higher than predicted they expected to be 15.5% in 2011, however it was 1.2% more than its actual predication, which caused a higher rise in term deposits and control of the currency growth. Liquidity continued in the deficit, and an increase in day to day borrowing which caused depreciation of the Indian currency (Mehta, 2011). The monetary policy of India face many phases during 1991, though there has been may adjustment in the monetary policy, however the structure stays the same as it was back in the 90s. As the Indian currency depreciated, and GDP was and caused and India had low growth level compare to a developing country. The Reserve Bank of India realised the importance of clarity and transparency of the monetary policy and the new governor of RBI announced a new modifications, Dr. Raghuram Rajan announced mid-quarter changes in the monetary policy. In his monetary policy he declared that the aim of the policy is to reduce the rate of inflation and improve the growth rate of the Indian economy (Mehta, 2011). “The changes included cutting down the MSF (Marginal standing facility rate) by 75 basis points and reducing the daily minimum CRR balance to 95% of the current requirement” (Mehta, 2011). Currently the monetary policy in India aim to focus on “easing the liquidity” and trying to slim down the “the current account deficit”. High inflation and depreciation of the currency is a burden in the balance sheets of corporates and banks. As the inflation is the core element of the Reserve Bank of India, hence its taking measures to maintain the inflation rate by controlling the “money supply” and “real interest rate” in the Indian economy.
  • 17. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     16   9.0 Conclusion Thus, to conclude there are been an enormous structural changes in the Indian economy, it has been changing after the independence from highly dependent on agriculture to services. According (Ranjan, and Gorantla, 2013) they argue, that “Although India is possessing a large domestic market, broad based industrial and infrastructure sectors, abundant supply of cheap labour, a huge number of educated and trained manpower and adequate natural resources to attain competitiveness India has yet to reap the benefits of such changes to the fullest extent”. It was found out that the living standard of chines citizens is better compare to that of India it was compared by the human development index (HDI), in 2012 the HDI of India was (0.554) and that of China was (0.699). Even though there an equal distribution of income in India compare to China. Several economic and social reforms have been taken into action in India for various reasons, such as sustainable economic growth, improving the living standards of the Indian citizens and, global competitiveness. As in this profile we looked at the monetary policy as a domestic policy. A developing country like India, which has been occupied historically by several countries in the last 2 centuries, its still struggling economic stability. The 1990s reforms has been positive however it may not be suitable for the current situation hence there is a need for more proficient and successful policies as adopted by other developing countries like China and Brazil. The political frame needs to adopt long-term domestic policies, and also take into consideration foreign policies. Transparent and equal regulation for all is suggested in order stabilise economic growth and fully utilise the monetary policy. Theoretical developing countries have a intense corruption and “shadow markets” paying a particular attention into them may led to faster economic growth & development. “Dominance of Cash Transaction impacts the money supply mechanism and regulatory distortions in the economy (Mehta, 2011)”. Launching a control mechanism on the “money supply “ will led the economy grow in a more suitable routes and in a further systematized manner (Sinha, 2013).
  • 18. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     17   10.0 Bibliography Ahluwalia, M. S., (2014). Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?. [Online] Available at: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jep/2002/00000016/00000003/art00005 [Accessed: 25 Apr 2014]. Bank, T. W., (2014). India | Data. [Online] Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/country/india [Accessed: 26 Mar 2014]. Censusindia.gov.in., (2014). Census of India Website: Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. [online] Available at: http://censusindia.gov.in/ [Accessed: 25 Apr 2014]. Chadha, R., Deardorff, A. V., Pohit, S. and M. Stern, R., (1998). The Impact of Trade and Domestic Policy Reforms in India. [Online] Available at: http://muse.jhu.edu/books/9780472026937 [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Ciaonet.org.,(2008). Columbia Discovery Service. [Online] Available at: http://www.ciaonet.org/atlas/IN/Economy/Economic_structure/20080808_16719.html [Accessed: 26 Mar 2014]. Dasgupta, P. and Chakarborty, D., (2005). The Structure of the Indian Economy. [online] Available at: https://www.iioa.org/conferences/15th/pdf/dasguptachakraborty.pdf [Accessed: 2 Apr 2014]. Data.worldbank.org. 2014. India | Data. [Online] Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Destradi, S., (2014). Domestic Politics and Regional Hegemony: India’s Approach to Sri Lanka. [online] Available at: http://www.e-ir.info/2014/01/14/domestic-politics-and-regional- hegemony-indias-approach-to-sri-lanka/ [Accessed: 30 Mar 2014]. Heritage.org.,( 2014). Indian Economy: Population, Facts, GDP, Corruption, Business, Trade, FDI. [Online] Available at: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Heritage.org.,( 2014). Indian Economy: Population, Facts, GDP, Corruption, Business, Trade, FDI. [Online] Available at: http://www.heritage.org/index/country/india [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Indexmundi.com.,( 2013). India - Unemployment rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year. [Online] Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=in&v=74 [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014].
  • 19. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     18   Indexmundi.com., (2013). India - Unemployment rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year. [Online] Available at: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=in&v=74 [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014]. Mishra, A. R., 31st may, (2013), ‘India’s GDP growth hits decade-low of 5% in 2012-13’, Live Mint & The Wall Street Journal, Available at: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/f530wJzqObGfGk4OII6ljJ/GDP-growth-hits-decadelow-of-5-in- 201213.html [Accessed: 20 Mar 2014]. Nirupam, B.,( 2003). India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals | Human Development Reports. [online] Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/india-towards-millennium- development-goals [Accessed: 26 Mar 2014]. Papola, T., (2012). STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE INDIAN ECONOMY Emerging Patterns an d Implications. [online] Available at: http://58.68.105.147/pdf/WP1202.pdf [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Price, D. G.,( 2011). For the Global Good India’s Developing International Role. [online] Available at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/r_indiarole0511.pdf [Accessed: 25 Mar 2014]. Ranjan, A. K. and Gorantla, B. R., (2013). Progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals 2015 | Social Watch. [Online] Available at: http://www.socialwatch.org/node/15910 [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014]. Ranjan, A. K. and Gorantla, B. R.,(2013). Progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals 2015 | Social Watch. [online] Available at: http://www.socialwatch.org/node/15910 [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014]. Rbi.org.in.,(2014). Reserve Bank of India. [online] Available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx [Accessed: 2 Apr 2014]. Reddy, H., R Pradhan, M., Ghosh, R. and Khan, A. G.,(2012). India’s progress towards the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on infant and maternal mortality. [online] Available at: http://www.searo.who.int/publications/journals/seajph/whoseajphv1i3p279.pdf [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014]. Reddy, H., R Pradhan, M., Ghosh, R. and Khan, A. G.,(2012). India’s progress towards the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on infant and maternal mortality. [online] Available at: http://www.searo.who.int/publications/journals/seajph/whoseajphv1i3p279.pdf [Accessed: 31 Mar 2014]. Todaro, M. P. and Smith, S. C., (2012). Economic development. Boston, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
  • 20. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     19   Appendix A: India, Figure 1: Percentage of Rural & Urban population   Year Rural population (% of total population) Urban population (% of total) 2012 68.34 31.66   B: Income Level B1: Figure 2, GDP per capita   GDP  per  capita  (constant  2005  US$)   Year   India     2000   578.2   2001   596.2   2002   609.0   2003   646.7   2004   687.3   2005   740.1   2006   797.3   2007   863.5   2008   885.2   2009   947.7   2010   1034.2   2011   1085.7   2012   1106.8     B2: Figure 3, India Vs China Human development index Year India HDI China HDI 2005 0.504 0.637 2006 0.512 0.65 2007 0.523 0.662 2008 0.527 0.672 2009 0.535 0.68 2010 0.542 0.689 2011 0.547 0.695 2012 0.554 0.699  
  • 21. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     20   C: Poverty and Inequality C1: Figure 4: Gini Coefficient of India from 1989-2012   Year     GINI  Coefficient  India     Gini  Coefficient  China     1994   0.3082   0.355   2005   0.3338   0.4248   2010   0.339   0.4234   C2: Figure 5: India poverty gap $1.25 & $2 a day 2005-2012 Year   Poverty  gap  at  $1.25  a  day  (PPP)  (%)   2005   10.51   2006     2007     2008     2009     2010   7.49     D: Figure 6, Structure of the economy   Year Agriculture Industry Services 2012 17.4 26.1 56.5   D1: Figure 7: Main Trading Partners Country Exports Imports United Arab Emirates 36,265.15 38,436.47 China 13,503.00 54,324.04 United States 36,152.30 24,343.73 Saudi Arabia 9783.81 34,130.50 Switzerland 1,116.98 29,915.78 Singapore 13,608.65 7,754.38 Germany 7,244.63 14,373.91 Hong Kong 12,278.31 8,078.58 Indonesia 5,331.47 14,774.27 Iraq 1,278.13 20,155.94 Japan 6,099.06 12,514.07 Belgium 5,506.63 10,087.16 Kuwait 1,060.80 16,569.63 Iran 3,351.07 11,603.79 South Korea 4,201.49 13,461.25  
  • 22. Student ID: W1348660 MODULE: BEQM608 Development Economics     21   D2: Figure 8: % of good and services imported into India and exported from India India's trade basket Top Export Items (FY 2012) US$ bn Top Import Items (FY 2012) US$ bn Petroleum products 56 Petroleum Crude 155 Gems & Jewellery 47 Gold & Silver 62 Pharmaceutical Products 24 Electronic Goods 33 Transport Equipment’s 21 Pearls & Precious Stones 31 Machinery & Instruments 14 Non-electrical machinery 30 Readymade Garments 14 Organic & Inorganic Chemicals 19 Manufactures of Metals 10 Coal, Coke & briquettes 17 Electronic Goods 9 Transport Equipment 14 Rubber, Glass & Products 7 Metalliferrous Ores & Products 13 Cotton Yarn & Fabrics 7 Iron & Steel 12   E: Economic performance E1: Figure 9: Real economic growth 2005-2012 GDP (constant 2005 US$) Consumer price index (2005 = 100) Real Economic growth 834215013542.69 100.00 9.284831501 911496398332.55 106.15 9.26396475 1000835444693.22 112.91 9.801360326 1039777522245.86 122.34 3.890957076 1127948409206.48 135.64 8.479783903 1246906269979.25 151.91 10.546392 1325841890242.58 165.37 6.330517551 1368758640113.53 180.77 3.236943273   E2: Figure 10: Unemployment rate 2005-2012 Year Unemployment rate (%) 2005 9.9 2006 7.8 2007 7.2 2008 6.8 2009 10.7 2010 10.8 2011 9.8 2012 8.5