A macroeconomic overview of the Pakistani economy since its independence.

1. National Output of Pakistani
Economy
Its Growth & Dynamics
(1947-2016)
Subject: Macroeconomics
Presented to: Muhammad Ahmed
Group Members
Asad Ahmed Shamsi (1611381)
Adeel Islam (1611373)
Muhammad Javed (1618199)

2. Introduction
• National output is the aggregate output the
country produces.
• In this report we provide a thoughtful and
concise illustration of the major monetary
policies, foreign policies, statistics and the
growth of the national output and compare
them with the varying characteristics of the
Pakistani economy over the period of 69
years.

3. Methodology
• Since the country’s inception, Pakistan has
seen an amalgam of both military and civilian
leaderships. To present our analysis, we have
divided our report into the significant
leaderships the country has witnessed over
the period of 69 years.
• The analysis is constructed era-wise which is
similar to a time-series analysis after
neglecting the equal distance placed between
each division.
• Moreover, the average growth rate

4. The Major Eras
• 1947 – 1958 Early Period
• 1958 – 1969 General Ayub Khan
• 1970 – 1977 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto
• 1977 – 1988 General Zia-ul-Haq
• 1988 – 1999 Benazir Bhutto & Nawaz
Sharif
• 1999 – 2008 General Parvez Musharraf
• 2008 – 2013 PPP
• 2013 – Present PML(N)

5. 1947 – 1958
Early Period
• The process of industrialization was focused on more,
comparative to agriculture, which only grew at 1.7%
annually
• More incentives were provided to private investors and
entrepreneurs in the country while agriculture was
completely kept aside, which resulted in rapid growth of
industrialization.
• The Korean War (1950-53) resulted in the collapse of the
Korean exports which provided high export earnings for
Pakistan.

6. 1958 – 1969
General Ayub Khan
• This era is dubbed as the “golden period” by
many as Pakistan witnessed exceptional
economic growth.
Major events of this period included:
• Construction of Tarbela dam
• Indus Basin Treaty with India
• US aid and investments
• Green revolution
• Development disparity between East and West

7. 1970 – 1977
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto
• Bhutto brought a change of policies which were
socialist in nature.
• In the first year alone, 31 large firms from 10
basic industries went through public takeover.
• The Rupee devaluated by 131%.
• After the separation of East Pakistan, the
country was in a position to import much more
than it could export.

8. 1977 – 1988
General Zia-ul-Haq
• The total average growth rates of output, capital
stock, labor and total factor productivity was an
impressive 9.6%.
• The first half of Zia’s regime had an even more
impressive growth rate of 12.8%.
• Pakistan actually soars higher in terms of their
goal for growth in both the 5th and 6th Five-year
plans.
• The industrial policy strongly favored the private
sector.
• The rise in remittances lifted up the national

9. 1988 – 1999
Benazir Bhutto & Nawaz Sharif
• The structural adjustment programs like the
PRGF and ESAF dictate changes in almost all
sectors of the economy.
• Borrowing from the IMF increased instead of
making meaningful reforms and cutting down
expenditure.
• The industrial policy as outlined by the IMF set
plans for overall reforms, tariff increases,
privatization and deregulation.

10. 1988 – 1999
Benazir Bhutto & Nawaz Sharif
• The reforms had these impacts:
• Increase in indirect taxes such as the general sales
tax.
• The barricade of subsidies on fertilizers, electricity,
communication and gas.
• A significant increase in the prices for producers of
crops like wheat, cotton and rice.
• Increase in the prices of petroleum products.
• Public sector development programs suffered a cost
reduction of 12.5%.
• Restriction on government borrowing and lending to

11. 1988 – 1999
Benazir Bhutto & Nawaz Sharif
• The large-scale manufacturing sector grew
by 7.4%.
• Sectors such as electricity and
communication were allowed private
investment.
• Pakistan’s exports were almost totally
stagnant during the time period from 1990-
1995 and imports rose in 1996 to
$12billion dollars from just $7.7 billion in

12. 1999 – 2008
General Pervez Musharraf
• During Musharraf’s rule Pakistan’s Real
GDP, per capita income and volume of
trade all increased.
• real GDP increased to $170 billion from
$60 billion
• per capita income rose to $1000 per
person from $500 before
• international trade increased to almost
$60 billion from $20 billion

13. 2008 – 2013
Pakistan Peoples’ Party
• Zardari government asked IMF for a $7.5
billion loan due to economic problems
• Foreign exchange reserves increased to
$16 billion as compared to $6 billion in
2008
• An increase in Pakistan’s exports which
increased to $29 billion in 2012 compared
to $18 billion in 2008
• The government also decreased the
interest rate to 9% in 2013 as compared to

14. 2008 – Present
Pakistan Muslim League (N)
• Inflation rates decreased from 8.6% in
2014 to 3.8% in 2015
• Foreign exchange reserves also increased
from $14.4 billion in 2014 to $18.7 billion in
2015
• Pakistan's GDP grew to $265 billion form
$235 billion in 2013

15. Results
1947 –
1958
1958 –
1969
1970 –
1977
1977 –
1988
1988 –
1999
1999 –
2008
2008 –
2013
2013 –
2016
2.9% 4.70% 4.05% 6.02% 4.35% 4.65% 2.30% 3.97%
• The chart above gives us the geometric
mean of the GDP growth rates of each era.
• Zia-ul-Haq’s era from 1977-1988 the growth
rate was the highest (6.02%).
• Followed by Ayub Khan from 1958-1969
(4.70%).
Then Pervez Musharraf from 1999-2008
(4.65%).

16. THANK YOU!