KLCI Market Trend lectures @INTAN 2002

1. © 27 Mar 2002, Arifin Abdul Latif, Asst. Director, IT Section, Planning Div., Dept of Agric., Malaysia
Email: ppstm@smtp.moa.my | arifinlatif@lycosasia.com Website: http://agrolink.moa.my/doa
Personal Website: http://members.tripodasia.com.sg/arifinlatif/ArifinLatif_Consulting.htm
KLCI Megatrend
~ Past, Present
& Beyond
Arifin Abdul lAtif
ArifinlAtif Consulting

2. KLCI’s Megatrend (22-year cycle)

3. KLCI, the Economy & the
Ringgit...

4. KLCI leads the Economy…

5. Mkt Cap/GDP at 3.8X Level…?

6. Effect of Capital Flight….

7. KLCI vs USD: Inverse Trend

8. RM/USD:Pre-Capital Controls

9. A Big C.I.T. in Nov Proven
Right…..

10. KLCI as the Barometer for
Economic Health & Sickness…

11. Three Buddhas…. Looking for the
Confirmation for Market
Reversal

12. How low can KLCI slide to….
650 by year-end, or lower to
550?

13. 650; 550 or at worst to 550?

14. Too High Too Soon…. Dangerous!!

15. On Necks, Black (White) Suits
& Black Shoes….

16. Three Buddhas…. Market
Reversals in Sept 1998 and Feb
2000

17. Into the Bermuda Triangle….

18. Earliest Market Reversal?

19. The Bermuda Triangle
Entrapment….

20. June-Aug-Oct 2001….
Most Likely to be the Next C.I.T.?

21. KLCI downtrend to 423% level
before Market Reversal?

22. 11 Session Lows Reached…
and Three Buddhas Reappearing..?

23. INTER-MARKET
TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS

24. Trends in Major World
Bourses:
DJIA-30 index

25. Trends in Major World
Bourses:
FTSE index

26. Trends in Major World
Bourses:
Nikkei index

27. Trends in Major World
Bourses:
Hang Seng index

28. Trends in Emerging Markets
KLComposite index

29. Trends in Emerging Markets
Straits Times index

30. Concluding
Remarks

31. FORECAST & REALITY:
KLCI’s MARKET
MegaTREND RAMALAN EKONOMI (Economic
Forecasting)
 Kitaran bisnes: hubungkait “lead-lag”
 RAMALAN ASAS (Fundamental
Forecasting)
 Analisis fundamental: “intrinsic value”
(PER)
 RAMALAN TEKNIKAL (Technical
Analysis)