1. DPP - Direcção de Serviços de Prospectiva DPP
WORKING PAPER
PLACES’ STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
A LOOK AT THE FUTURE OF THE LISBON METROPOLITAN AREA
José M. Félix Ribeiro1 - DPP2
September 2004
1 With the collaboration of Paulo de Carvalho (paulo@dpp.pt) and António
Alvarenga (antonio@dpp.pt).
2 Department of Foresight and Planning (Portuguese Ministry for Towns, Local
Administration, Housing and Regional Development) (www.dpp.pt).

2. 2

3. 3
DPP’S APPROACH TO PLACES’3 STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
Places face a multitude of challenges regarding its competitiveness and attractivity. This
paper presents DPP’s process of analysing places’ past structure, identifying the
pre-determined elements and key uncertainties they face and anticipating possible
evolutions. The method also includes a final part dedicated to strategy (not developped
here).
DPP’s approach implies the answer to the following questions:
?? Previous question: Who are we (“the place”) and how did we get here?
?? Question 1: How can we understand what has happened in our environment?
?? Question 2: Looking ahead, what can happen in our environment? Could it be very
different from the past?
?? Question 3: What are the main challenges that we might face in the future?
?? Question 4: Given those challenges, what path(s) should we choose in the future?
?? Question 5: What actions can we implement, in an articulated way, to follow that path
(starting from the place in which we are at the present)?
Answers to these questions
To the “previous question” (Who are we and how did we get here?) we answer with the
analysis of the recent local dynamics (part 1).
To question 1 (How can we understand what has happened in our environment?) we
answer with (part 2; points 2.1. and 2.2.):
3 “Place” as a geographic area with characteristics that make it suitable for a coherent foresight
exercise and operative for strategy implementation. It can be a region, a set or regions, a city, a city
and its neighbourhood, a nation, etc. (i.e., “place” in the sense used by Philip Kotler, Donald H. Haider
and Irving Rein in “Marketing Places – Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States, and
Nations”, The Free Press, New York, 1993).
CONTENTS
DPP’S Approach to Places’
Strategic Foresight, p.3.
Part 1: Assessing Recent
Dynamics of the Place, p.5.
Part 2: Designing a Strategic
Foresight Process, p.16.
Final Remark, p.37.
Annex A: Related Works
Published by DPP’s Foresight
Team, p.38.
About the Team, p.40.
For More Information, p.41.

4. 4
·The observation of the main events of the recent past that occurred in the
environment, defining the main trends that allow an integrated analysis of the multiple
events.
·The identification of the emergent patterns, i.e. small groups of events that point out
to different or even opposite directions although they are still not strong enough to be
classified as a new trend or a possible rupture with an existing trend.
·An attempt to conceive a structure that helps to understand the forces shaping our
environment.
To question 2 (Looking at the future, what can happen in our environment? Will it be very
different from the past?) we answer with the identification of pre-determined elements (i.e.
the projection into the future or the rupture of past trends in the horizon of the scenario
planning exercise) and the choice of crucial uncertainties and their possible resolutions
(part 2; section 2.3.). Pre-determined elements and the ways uncertainties are “solved”
constitute the point of departure for constructing environment scenarios.
To answer question 3 (What are the main challenges that we might face in the future?) we
start with a confrontation between today’s characteristics of the place and
pre-determined elements of the future (with a dynamic SWOT analysis as a tool). We then
confront these characteristics with more contrasting scenarios (comparing with the present
situation) aiming to identify where might the site search for a supplement of “robustness” in
order to face the most contrasted situations (this topic is not explored in this paper).
To question 4 (Given those challenges, what path(s) should we choose in the future?) we
answer by choosing one of the four possible evolutions for the place (this topic is not
explored in this paper):
Growth consolidation.
Stop the decline.
Follow-up of an on-going transformation.
Change of the transformation dynamics.
To question 5 (What actions can we implement, in an articulated way, to follow that path -
starting from the place in which we presently are?) we answer with an action plan (again,
this is not explored in this paper).

5. 5
PART 1: ASSESSING RECENT DYNAMICS OF THE PLACE
This part starts by presenting a very simplified framework for assessing the place dynamics
(sections 1.1. and 1.2.). Then, at section 1.3., we apply it to three cases situated in the
Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA).
1.1. Selecting the Key Variables
An assessment of the recent evolution of a place – we call it Place Diagnostics – is much
more than a description of its positive and negative points. In fact, for us, it is essentially a
process of understanding the existing mechanisms and characteristics of the place (we
should consider a long time horizon - e.g. a decade).
The understanding of the dynamics starts with the selection of the variables considered as
more important for the description of the place evolution.
At this simplified approach we have chosen two Key Variables (as they are relatively
independent) – Activities and Population -, and one Dependent Variable – Space
Consumption. We will now try and present their inter-relations.
The Activities of a place can be divided into three main groups (see figure 1):

6. 6
Figure 1: Place Dynamics – a simplified approach
Building
Construction
Activities
Derivative
Activities
Functions of the
Place
Employment
Salaries
Dynamics
Population
Dynamics
Land
Dynamics “Space
Consumption”
Activities that represent what the place offers to its external environment (regional,
national and/or international) (we call them “Functions” of the place).
Activities that correspond to the supply of goods and services to the resident
population. The nature of this type of activities depends, of course, on the dimension
and level of prosperity of the place’s population. We call them “Derivative Activities”.
Activities of land infrastructuring, namely building construction works oriented for
residential and commercial purposes.
The building construction activity is crucial not only for the population it attracts (through
new created jobs) but also as a consequence of its influence on urban land rent (with its
value included in the price of the land). We call this last process “land dynamics”, which
also includes land authority intervention and management.
Moreover, the link between a place’s population and its activities can vary significantly. For
instance, in an extreme situation, the place might work only as a dormitory for people that
work in activities belonging to other places.

7. From another perspective, space consumption is a variable that results from the interaction
between activities (through land dynamics) and population dynamics, mediated by the
intervention of the authorities that control space usage.
In this perspective, and taking into consideration the chosen variables, place evolution can
be characterized essentially by its capacity to attract activities and people as well as by its
space consumption pattern.
But what are the factors that make a place attractive to activities and population? Figure 2
illustrates our view on this subject:
7
Figure 2: Place Attractivity Factors
Dedicated
Infrastructures
Here are some of the most important general activity attraction factors:
Extension and diversity of the existing pool of qualified human resources.
Quality of the accessibilities to:
Activities
Attraction
Communications
Digitalisation
Taxes and
Social Security
Contributions
Labour
Market
Flexibility
HR’s
Pool
Logistics
Accessibilities
Network of
Firms
Suppliers
Property
Prices
Mobility
Employment
Dynamics
Environment
Housing
Prices
Population
Attraction
Population
Attraction
“Space
Consumption”
Basic
Services
Universities
Infrastructural
Services

8. 8
o The place.
o The region where the place is located.
o The most prosperous areas of the place’s country.
o International markets (both near and distant).
Quality of the telecommunication and digital services network available to the
components that choose the place.
Quality of the existing infra-structural services, namely land, and building of factories,
warehouses and offices prices.
Existing diversity of activities that can work as suppliers of other activities, namely those
that define place “Functions” (see figure 1).
Besides these factors of local/regional nature there are obviously others also linked to the
country (and/or the macro-region) where the place is located. Tax level and labour market
flexibility are two examples of these factors.
In terms of population attraction to the place we can distinguish four major factors:
Employment and salaries dynamics of the place and its region.
Quality of basic services (namely education, healthcare and security).
Environmental (e.g. urban water cycle management, waste treatment, availability of
green areas) and amenities (e.g. scenery, sport and leisure infrastructures, leisure
services) quality.
House prices, which works as a differentiator of the social classes that search the place
and, at the same time, it acts as a social exclusion force.
Before proceeding with the understanding of recent place dynamics, we must identify the
local authorities intervention power – especially Municipalities – over the place’s attraction
factors and describe their financial resources availability. Figure 3 illustrates this question:

9. Regulations Investment
9
Figure 3: Municipalities and Place Attractivity Factors
Land
Offer
Control
Norms
Standards
Expenditures
As shown in the figure, municipalities’ power and actions are felt through, basically:
Land use and availability of land for building construction.
Building of dedicated infrastructures (e.g. industrial and logistic areas, CT parks).
Mobility conditions in the place and its position in the national/regional network.
Supply of environmental services and amenities.
Basic services offered to the resident population.
Central
Administration
Transfers
Environment Investment
Amenities
Personnel
Population
Municipalities
Social
Housing
Social
Action
Activities
Dedicated
Infrastructures
Revenues
External
Ac cessibilities
Communications
Digitalisation
Basic
Services
Residential
Construction
Internal
Mobility

10. 10
Provision of social housing (social integration factor).
In order to have an intervention in all these areas, Municipalities need their own revenues
and, eventually, financial transfers from the Central Administration. The way Municipalities
get their own revenues is crucial to the definition of the way Municipalities influence space
consumption (a key variable).
In fact, if Municipalities own revenues result from real estate taxation and/or from taxes on
car circulation, there is na impulse to accelerate building construction and not to reduce
the intensity of car utilization. This leads necessarily to an intense space consumption that
implies substantial future financial needs for internal mobility investment (due to the social
costs of traffic jams). All this can deteriorate, in the medium term, the attraction factors of
activities included in the centre of the place’s “Functions”.
1.2. Specific Functions and Attractivity Factors
The Place Diagnostics will be more complete with a more detailed assessment of place’s
“Functions” and their specific activity attraction factors. With this objective, we identified a
set of different functions that might characterize the places:
Industrial/Logistics – place characterized (in the national economy/international
market) by at least one industry and/or by the exploitation of its geographical position
(in terms of the networks of goods transportation and people mobility) for the exercise
of logistical functions (storage, distribution, etc.).
Tertiary/Informatics/Media – place characterized by the existence of business services,
telecommunication services and activities linked to the informatization of the society
as well as the production/distribution of information/entertainment content.
Tourism/Senior Citizen Living – place characterized by the existence of tourism related
services (relying on the existence of special landscape and amenities resources)
possibly coordinated with other leisure services; moreover, the growing trend for older
people from more developed countries to search permanent residence places in
areas with better climate and less traffic creates an opportunity for some of the areas
with a touristic vocation to be considered as senior citizen living potential destinations.
Residence/Merit – place characterized by the existence of activities linked to the
simultaneous production of “merit goods” (e.g. universities, health, culture); places

11. 11
where good urban characteristics and amenities resources also exist becoming
particularly attractive to prosperous and demanding social classes.
Residence/Dormitory – place characterized by the absence of “Functions” beyond
residence to people working in activities that characterize other places (located not
very far away); this means that almost all activities on these places are Derivative, i.e.
based on services to the resident population.
Naturally, each of the described place specific “Functions” implies different attractivity
factors that we should understand in order to reach a clearer view of recent place
dynamics. Table 1 presents some of these factors:
Table 1: Different Attractivity Factors of Different Place Specific “Functions”
INDUSTRIAL /
LOGISTICS
(metropolitan ring; heavy
industry platform; exports-cluster;
etc.)
Accessibility and position in terms of transport networks.
Availability of space for infrastructures.
Land cost.
Availability of industrial workforce.
Quality of infrastructure services: electricity and water.
TERTIARY /
INFORMATICS /
MEDIA
Pool of qualified human resources (diversified with an
informatics focus).
Telecommunications quality and digitalisation intensity.
Quality of infrastructure services: electricity.
Place attractivity for demanding people.
TOURISM/SENIOR
CITIZEN LIVING
Availability of land for extensive use.
Environment and amenities quality.
Internal mobility and accessibility from the exterior of the place.
Health, culture and entertainment services offer.
Communications / Digitalisation.
RESIDENCE/”MERIT”
Availability of land for intensive use.
House prices.
Environment and amenities quality.
Internal mobility.
Regional accessibility.
Offer of university and health services.

12. 12
1.3. Recent Dynamics
This section aims to understand the most recent place dynamics. Taking into consideration
the chosen variables, we have considered three standard territorial dynamics:
Sustained Growth – if the interaction between population, activities dynamics and
municipalities intervention results in stronger territorial competitivity in terms of the
functions that characterized the place in the beginning of the period;
Decline – if the interaction between population, activities dynamics and municipalities
intervention results in a significant weakening process of the functions that
characterized the place in the beginning of the period;
Transformation – if the place, facing the impossibility of following its traditional
“Functions” and/or taking advantage of new opportunities, begins a process of
changing its “Functions” (with an uncertain result).
Boxes 1, 2 and 3 present three examples of the application of this method to sectors of the
LMA:

13. Box 1: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Industrial Platform to Residence/Dormitory
13
(case 1)
In this case, we have a place that:
Was a site of peripheral industrial poles of an urban metropolis.
Suffered from the closing of its industrial companies (leaving both a scenario of
environment degradation and an urban scene typical of poor working areas).
Is situated near a big city and in a riverside area with an amenities potential yet
unexplored.
The option of transforming the place into a residence/dormitory area was the easiest one
after the decline of the traditional industrial functions. However, the urban implications of
this kind of functions associated with the characteristics of a typical industrial area hinder a
future exploitation of the place’s landscape and amenities potentialities. This exploitation
could attract more prosperous population, which could generate the demand for
proximity services, creating jobs and helping the integration of social minorities.
Figure 4: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Industrial Platform to
Residence/Dormitory (case 1)
Low Sophistication
of the “Proximity
Services”
Attraction of Low
Income New
Residents
Metropolitan
Accessibilities
Improvement
Weak Activities
Dynamics / Low
Generation of
Local Employment
Central
Administration
“Cheap” Land
Offer in a
Metropolitan
Space
Municipality
Risk of Destruction of
theAmenities
Potential
Decline of Heavy
Industries
Poor
Image
High Pace in
Construction
Structural
Unemployment
Environmental
Problems
Industrial Park –
Failure in the
Attraction of
Activities

14. Box 2: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Tourism/Senior Citizen Living to Residence
14
(case 2)
In this second case, we have a place that:
Had tourism/senior citizen living functions (very concentrated in a certain part of the
place) that coexisted with deregulated urbanization (in a contiguous part).
Saw its beaches more and more polluted, which, associated with mass access (from
inhabitants of the periphery to the tourism area), made the beaches unattractive to
high standard tourism.
Had a large-scale residence building (without any concerns about creating a
coherent image) that transformed the place into a disorganized suburban middle
class area.
Watched the disappearance of its residential top functions and had its touristic
functions seriously menaced (the maintenance of these functions is carried on through
projects like a congress centre and a marina, but the loss of the place’s traditional
characteristics has not been stopped).
Figure 5: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Tourism/Senior Citizen Living to
Residence (case 2)
Intense
Spac e
Consumption
Change
of
Image
Central
Administration
Urban
Congestion
Improvement of
Metropolitan
Accessibilities
Tourism Functions /
Potential De cline
Exterior
Ac c essibilities -
Airport
Building o f
Dedic ated
Infrastructures (e.g.
Con gress Centre,
Golf Green)
“Rich”
Initial
Image
Attraction of New
“Middle Class”
Residents
High p a c e in
Construction
Destruction of the
Amenities Offer and
Environment
Release of
“Expensive” Lan d in
a Metropolitan Area
Municipality

15. Box 3: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML – The Affirmation of a Tertiary/Informatics/Media
15
Place (case 3)
In this third case, we have a place that:
Explores its integration in the big city area in order to attract headquarters of national
and international companies interested in selling its centre city headquarters and
looking for a pleasant place, close by and with good infrastructures and accessibilities.
Has had its tertiary functions developed with the installation of a university and a CT
park (which attracts innovative businesses in the software and informatics services
area) as well as new television and audiovisual production studios
Follows a policy of stimulus to house complex median class building, reinforcing
environment quality and amenities resources, with the purpose of giving an image of a
non-overcrowded and agreeable place.
Naturally, a place with these conditions has a tendency to attract both qualified and
unqualified population. A strong majority of the unqualified population works either in the
building construction or in the large proximity services sector (generated by the presence
of prosperous and highly qualified workers). In this context, a social housing policy is an
essential instrument for social integration.
Figure 6: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - The Affirmation of a
Tertiary/Informatics/Media Place (case 3)
Security
Criminality Reduction
Attraction
of
Activities
Attraction of
“Middle Class”
Population
Basic Services
Offer
Offer of Amenities
and Environment
Quality
Social Housing
Offer
Office
Parks
Audiovisual
Studios
ST
Parks
Telecommunication
Digitalisation
High Prices for
Residential
Construction
Population Growth
with Marginalization
Risks
Need for
“Proximity Services”
Generation of
Endogenous
Employment
Low Social
Integration
Generation of
Qualified Jobs

16. Challenges Actions New Structures
16
PART 2: DESIGNING A STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS
In part 1 we tried to understand the recent dynamics of the places. However, in order to
understand what the strategy of the place for a better positioning in the future must be, we
have to work on its environment (in the three examples presented, the environment is the
LMA).
In order to achieve that, we will explore figure 7 (particularly the four components
mentioned in the figure).
Figure 7: The Strategic Foresight Process4
Events Structures Trends
2
Understanding
Structures Behind
Trends and Events
1 Event Observation
and Trend
“Extraction”
4
3
Anticipation of
Future Structures
and Plausible
Scenarios
Identification of
Challenges and
Choice of Path(s)
and Actions
OBSERVATION UNDERSTANDING ANTECIPATION DECISION
4 Adapted from John J. Shibley’s “The Learning Action Matrix” (in John J. Shibley/The Portland Learning
Organization: “A Primer on Systems Thinking Organizational Learning” [currently available at
http://www.systemsprimer.com/writings.htm].

17. 17
2.1. Events, Trends and Patterns
As van der Heijden stressed5 , those who work in Foresight and Scenario Planning recognize
the existence of structures behind events. This analysis is based on the assumption that
events do not happen by chance but, on the contrary, they are interconnected through a
structure in which one event leads to another.
Thus, our perception is based on trends and patterns that we recognize in events and we
use as causality cues. These cues can take different forms6:
“Temporal order, events organised on a time line, for example trends over time in
events.
Co-variance, where we see different variables follow similar patterns over time.
Spatial/temporal closeness, if one thing always follows another, we assume a link.
Similarity in form or pattern.”
These cues for event causality are the basis for the second level of knowledge, that of
trends and patterns leading to variable conceptualisation.
Besides this trend identification exercise we should also dedicate our efforts to the process
of finding emergent patterns, i.e. groups of recent events that:
Point into directions not covered by identified trends.
Point into possible change in the direction of identified trends.
In box 4 we present an exemplification of events that characterized LMA’s recent
evolution. We also “extract” trends from these events and start a process of emergent
pattern recognition.
5 See section “Cues for causality” (pp.97-99) of Kees van der Heijden’s “Scenarios: the Art of Strategic
Conversation” (John Wiley Sons, Chichester, 1998 – first edition: 1996).
6 Using Kees van der Heijden’s words (ibid., p.99).

18. 18
Box 4: LMA – Observing Events, “Extracting” Trends and Finding Emergent Patterns
Observing Events
Intensive building construction.
Surge of new urban building outside traditional central area.
Surge of degradated and/or abandoned buildings on the traditional city centre.
Slum clearance.
Highway investment.
Shopping Centre and hypermarket opening at peripheral places.
Heavy industry platforms closing (Cabo Ruivo, Barreiro, Seixal, Almada).
VW Auto-Europa installation and development of its industrial park at Palmela7.
New centralities for business in the Lisbon area and neighbouring municipalities (e.g.
Oeiras).
Universities and RD centres displacement from Lisbon.
Development of new leisure zones linked to public investment – EXPO8, Belém Cultural
Centre.
“Extracting” Trends
Strong development of tertiary activities as the main job creation sector.
Deindustrialization of heavy traditional industries as well as “soft” industries
delocalisation.
Lisbon centre desertification (both in terms of population and business services).
Substantial housing improvement, associated with own house acquisition.
Follow-up of the periurbanization phenomenon (expanded into new municipalities).
Break out of new degradated residential zones leading to ghetization and crime
growth.
Concentration of multinational’s headquarters outside Lisbon municipality.
Finding Emergent Patterns
Lisbon as a touristic destination for congresses and other events.
Cultural and artistic diversification.
7 VW Auto-Europa is the largest auto plant in Portugal and constitutes the most important foreign direct
investment ever made in the country (http://www.autoeuropa.pt).
8 Place that inherited and further developed Lisbon’s Expo 98 facilities.

19. Regulator
and Tax
Collector
State
Space of Families
Employment,
Revenue and
Saving Variables Space of Economic
and Business
Environment
Variables
Space of Territory
Occupation and
Infrastructuring
19
2.2. Structures behind Trends and Events
We started by selecting a group of events from which we try and “extract” trends and
patterns.
In a process of increased complexity we then develop the structure(s)9 that (we think)
explain the causalities possible to establish between different trends. They are the third level
of knowledge, assuming that they are capable of explaining events.
Figure 8 presents an attempt to facilitate the job of searching for variables, actors and
interactions that constitute structures10 in the case of territorial areas like LMA.
Figure 8: Looking for a Structure that Helps to Understand Recent Place Dynamics
Space of the Activities Most
Exposed to International
Competition
Space of
Non-Transactional
Activities
Financial
System
Institutions
Protector
and
Investor
State
Families
Space of
Demographic
Variables
Variables
Industrial
and
Services
Firms
9 Structures exist as products of our reasoning. As van der Heijden stresses, the plural is used because
“multiple structures may result from different possible interpretations of causal patterns” (Ibid., p.99).
10 Adopting a simplified and operational approach we can define structure as a group of variables,
actors and interactions between actors, selected and organized in a way that will help explaining a
strong majority of the movements of the chosen variables in order to explain the dynamics of the system.

20. 20
In the LMA case we tried a very simple approach to its structure. Figure 9 summarizes a
number of processes that characterized LMA in the last decade. Their interaction had a
central role in the definition of LMA’s type of growth. At box 5 we present a very brief
description of these processes.
Box 5: LMA – Understanding the Structure
Demographic evolution characterized by the arrival to the mature age of a very large
post-second world war born generation (with a general achievement of a higher
position in the revenue scale). As this generation was the first to fully (everyone and
during all their lifetime) contribute to the social security system, it made it possible for
this system to generate financial surpluses.
Reinforcement of the tertiarization of the Economy with the development of core
activities intensive in qualifications and competencies. These activities are organized
around financial services, business services, telecommunications/audiovisual,
engineering/consultancy, health services, teaching and training. At the same time, it
was generated a large-scale demand for low qualification activities, namely in
distribution, tourism and personal services.
The previous process was nourished by another one: infrastructural sectors liberalization
and privatisation (telecommunications, television and radio, electricity, gas, highways,
water and environment). Together with a reinforcement of Central Administration
financial capability (availability of EU structural funds), the process provoked a massive
investment in the mentioned sectors and generated new opportunities for capital
markets valorisation of its businesses.
Disinflation, exchange rate stability and budget consolidation allowed a gradual
reduction in the rates of interest, culminating on the inclusion of Portugal into the
group of EU member states that integrated EMU third phase (1999). Interest rate
reduction and privatisations revenues were essential to budget consolidation. It also
facilitated an increase on credit demand by families.
Tertiarization was associated with a double movement in employment: (i) contributed
to a high women activity rate; (ii) promoted the creation of large quantities of job
opportunities for young people. This double movement happened at different
qualification levels, contributing to the augmentation of family revenue and the
creation of social mobility expectations. Tertiarization also had a complementary
effect: withdrawal from young people’s imaginary of the industrial activity.
In a period of strong globalisation, intense external competition and impossibility for
the State to secure cover of industrial infrastructural sectors continuous losses, this
sector lost weight in the economy. At the same time, multinational companies weight
increased, especially in two different types of sectors: (i) the ones with higher growth;
(ii) the ones with stronger contraction. Industry as a whole did not create jobs. On the
contrary, it generated structural unemployment (glossed over partially with

21. 21
anticipated retirements).
Improved family revenue (consequence of a high women activity rate not following
salary improvements) proportionated access to credit (difficult to obtain formerly). This
improvement in the revenue was channelled into housing and durable goods
acquisition, which promoted increasing debt. At the same time, families invested in
longer education for their children.
The increase in the offer of credit to real estate promotion and house acquisition by
families was parallel to a growing supply of construction land. This supply was
promoted by municipalities, which have a substantial part of their revenues associated
to their place building intensity.
Tertiarization (namely its components of increasing business services, financial services,
telecommunications and audiovisual, tourism and the complete transformation of the
large distribution sector) lead to a boom in the office and commercial real estate
sector.
Credit, land, offer of new accessibilities, together with tertiarization dynamics,
generated the conditions for a real estate boom (both in residential construction,
commerce and services buildings). This boom generated a growth of building
construction and public works as well as an intense demand for immigrants to work in
a sector that stopped counting with the arrival to the cities of rural population.
The main infrastructural sectors companies (which have their headquarters in the LMA)
had their growth limited by the economic dimension of Portuguese place and suffered
an intensified competition from new competitors brought by sectorial liberalization
process. In this context, they choose a double strategy: (i) internationalisation of their
operations to emergent economies where there was a demand for their
competencies; (ii) diversification into new areas (especially telecommunications,
content and Internet) where they had no competencies but were considered as
having strong future dynamics. Both movements animated capital markets for a long
expansion period.
The existence of a set of highly remunerated tertiary sector workers and the
multiplication of rapid enrichment opportunities in services and intermediation
activities generated a new group of savers. These savers abandoned bank deposits
and turned massively into capital markets direct or indirect applications (leaving the
banks without one of their safer savings source).
Banks reduced their exposure to industrial sectors credit (partly as a consequence of
these sectors lack of dynamics and investment rentability) concentrating their financial
operations in two areas: (i) real estate (financing real estate promoters and house
buyers); (ii) services infrastructural sectors. These were the two areas where its most
important (in terms of dimension, dynamics and profitability) business clients were
located. And, given their limitation in terms of deposits, they increasingly detained
external financing in order to compete for more profitable business opportunities.

22. External
indebtedness
of the
Banking
Sector
22
Figure 9: A Structure to Understand Recent LMA Dynamics
Family
Revenues
Increase
Multinational
Companies
Banks
Real Estate
Promoters
Central
Admin.
Municipality
Social
Security
(Surpluses)
Skills
Offer
Economy
Tertiarization
Real Estate
Boom
Urban
Segment
Expansion
Disinflation
Immigrants
Attraction
Structural
Funds
Availability
Deposits
Escape
Residence
Acquisition
Stock
Exchange
Dynamics
Land
Offer
Women Activity Rate
Accessibilities
Offer
Interest
Rates
Interest
Rates
Brazil
Business
Expansion
Industry
Internationalisation
Infrastructural
Sectors
Privatisation
Credit
Offer
Population
Ageing
Incentives
Offer
Credit
Capital

23. 23
2.3. Future(s) Anticipation
After the diagnostic phase we enter the foresight phase with the objective of anticipating
challenges, opportunities and transformations that the place might face in the future as a
consequence of processes that are not under its control (but that might affect it at the
level of its functions, populations, prosperity and cohesion).
Taking into consideration the structure(s) conceived and looking at the future we can
consider two types of elements:
Pre-determined elements, based on a structure supposedly very stable in the time
horizon of the scenario planning exercise;
Uncertain elements that result from the possibility of explaining the events in different
ways and/or the existence of more than one possible structure in the base of events
(and the absence of a way of deciding which of the possible structures will prevail in
the future).
A scenario is, after all, a representation of how the future might be taking as point of
departure the presence of pre-determined elements and different ways of solving
uncertain elements.
Structural uncertainties11 are the scenarios drivers. They can be “solved” in different ways
and different “resolutions” can be combined differently (originating a combinatory). In
order to avoid a combinatory with too many elements we usually try to reduce the number
of scenario drivers.
11 Van der Heijden (Ibid., p.84) identifies structural uncertainties “where we are looking at the possibility
of an event which is unique enough not to provide us with an indication of likelihood. The possibility of
the event presents itself by means of a cause/effect chain of reasoning, but we have no evidence for
judging how likely it could be.”

24. 24
Recovering LMA’s exercise, at this point we tried to clarify four main points about LMA’s
future(s):
Identification of pre-determined elements, i.e. anticipation of changes in the general
attractivity and competitiveness factors of the place (in a given time horizon) resulting
from heavy trends in the international environment (section 2.3.1.). This trend
identification must result from the identification o a restrict number of forces exerting
their power over economies and societies of the place’s world region.
Identification of the structural uncertainties at the place’s regional (LMA region) and
national (Portugal) levels that might affect in a decisive way activities that specify
LMA’s functions, people that LMA might attract and LMA’s position in terms of space
availability (section 2.3.2.). This identification must be done according to the diagram
that presents the processes characterizing the LMA12.
Formulation of hypothesis about the way of “solving” structural uncertainties and their
articulation with the different ways the region and/or the country might react to pre-determined
elements (section 2.3.3.). The purpose is to build alternative environment
scenarios.
Construction of alternative scenarios (exploring retained hypothesis combinatory
(section 2.3.4.)).
12 See figure 9.

25. 25
2.3.1. Identifying the Pre-Determined Elements
Pre-determined elements identification13 corresponds to heavy trends spotting. Figure 10
shows a group of topics that should be considered while searching for those trends
(obviously, this does not mean that in all foresight exercises we will find heavy trends in all
these groups).
Figure 10: Key Themes for Trend Identification
In the case of place foresight we must pay special attention to the areas that are most
important to the place future attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.
13 In a given time horizon.
Technology
Innovation
Activities
Dynamics
Energy
Knowledge Solutions
Skills
Management
Models
Institutions
Work
Employment Values
Lifestyles
Demography
Family Structures
Environment
Natural Resources

26. In the LMA exercise we have found seven heavy trends that we think will strongly influence
LMA’s attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity (box 6).
Box 6: Heavy Trends Faced by LMA Related to Attractivity, Competitiveness and Prosperity
26
Factors
Being Global
Development of business services for global companies, exploring opportunities
promoted by cyberspace (e.g. call centres and other back office functions).
Special attention to the participation of local businesses, universities and research
centres in solid world networks as well as attempts to attract foreign investment,
entrepreneurs and talents.
Special attention to infrastructural investments that reinforce the connection with
global broadband communication networks, air and maritime transport of goods. The
main objective is to be closer to the regions where innovation is generated and/or
where faster growth is taking place.
Being Digital
Availability of the main e-business infrastructures: safe supply of quality electricity and
local and international broadband telecommunications.
Strong organization of the goods and services transaction space. This organizational
process must be based in technologies focused on the exploration of e-business
possibilities (namely in the services sector).
Organization of large-scale Internet activities and local residents connection to the
web. Generalization of telematics use in the supply of more deterritorialized services,
making the citizens more involved in town management.
Reorganization of interactive and network technologies around teaching and learning
systems.
Large offer (especially to the young) of reconversion opportunities centred in
informatics, communications and audiovisual.
Being Green
Reduction (through technological and societal innovation) of fossil energy
consumption (and pollution) in urban mobility, habitat and tertiary sector, namely by
the use of new collective systems of individual transport complemented by a massive
diffusion of new solar energy solutions.
Promotion of forestations and creation of green areas in cities – proportional with the
emissions of greenhouse effect gases.
Protection of the best agricultural lands near large cities, keeping an encircle of food
supply.

27. Priority to hydric resources protection (namely of those that supply cities water supply),
27
stopping its reduction and contamination.
Being Flexible
Reorganization of the individual’s participation in the labour market (according to
different periods of their active life) and an extension of this participation (compatible
with quality of life).
Reform of pension systems. In the medium term this reform must enable a better
management of the economic and social impacts of the ageing demographic
dynamics as well as securing the best valuation opportunities for active population
compulsory savings.
Organization of the market for individual risk covering and managing the life cycle
consumption/saving fluxes in an institutional way that promotes investment and
innovation without compromising individual security.
Increase of real estate instruments liquidity, profoundness and diversity with the
objective of answering the family’s life cycle different needs in housing and
proportionating greater mobility.
Being Light
Development of weightless activities (or with weight measured in grams) with low
direct consumption of fossil energies (e.g. business services, content production,
high-tech industries).
Maximum reduction in the capital intensity of mobility, communication and cities’
energy supply solutions, allowing the bulk of investment to be directed into
applications that increase productivity and generate employment.
Being Dense in Value
Focusing city functions more clearly on services and high value added industry sectors.
Availability of a dynamic financial services sector pressing into better capital valuation
(helping its mobility) that knows how to finance immaterial capital acquisition
(increasingly important to value creation).
Being Competent and Innovative
Increasing participation on knowledge and innovation processes by the excellence
and internationalisation of universities and research institutions.
Availability of a large entertainment sector and intense artistic and cultural creation,
attracting talents and “users”.
Offer of quality health and personal care services, development of competencies in
health and rehabilitation related industries and services, transforming ageing
phenomenon in a growth opportunity.

28. 28
2.3.2. Main Structural Uncertainties: the LMA Case
We have identified a set of predetermined general elements that will frame LMA’s future
attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.
To those general elements we must add more country specific ones:
Portugal will suffer a strong budget constraint due to ageing pressure over current
spending and internal transfers.
Portugal will get less monetary transfers from the EU (which has an important impact
on public investment and might trigger clear options on public investment).
Portugal will suffer a profound transformation of its financial sector due to growing
integration at European level, changing family preferences (in favour of financial
assets) and a possible bank crisis.
In this context, we will now try and identify LMA’s structural uncertainties (box 7).
Box 7: Defining LMA’s Structural Uncertainties
In this case, we will approach two types of structural uncertainties:
Uncertainties about the way Portugal and LMA will face predetermined elements
related to future place attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.
Uncertainties about the continuity of key elements from the structure based on recent
LMA’s dynamics (figure 9).
In the first case, we must choose key characteristics (for a place to be competitive and
attractive in the long run) that are harder to get at in the LMA (due to ideological dogmas
or special economic interests or opposing social forces) and, preferably, that are related
with elements of the previous structure. We choose:
Being Flexible – existence or absence of organizing labour market integration, human
capital accumulation and family savings in a way more compatible with
demographic tendencies.
Being Digital – priority given to communication/audiovisual networks, families digital
connection and digital organization of activities and place (versus absolute priority to

29. 29
investment in large mobility infrastructures).
Being Green – existence or absence of a framework that helps solving cities traffic
problems and protecting LMA’s agro and landscape potential.
We should look for the second type of structural uncertainties in the previous structure key
elements that might change in the long run. We choose three main uncertainties:
Evolution of the real estate market – different forms of organizing real estate market
and ways of cutting back bank sector dependency on land rent (potential source of
speculation and financial crisis cycles).
Options on internationalisation infrastructures – different options for the next decade
large internationalisation infrastructures in Portugal (e.g. new Lisbon airport, high speed
rail connection to Madrid, containers ports) and North-South axis organization (among
other things, these options will conditionate LMA’s spatial development).
Evolution of infrastructural sectors – implications of the next decade choice between
centralization and competition in infrastructural sectors (electricity,
telecommunications and urban transportation). This choice will influence places
attractivity.
Figure 11 presents a set of interactions between four pre-determined elements...
Globalisation in an environment of technological change.
Ageing.
Financial system transformation.
External Transfers Reduction.
... and a group of structural uncertainties resulting from “Being Flexible” decomposition in
four vectors and consideration of “Being Digital” and “Being Green”:
Social protection systems reform.
Labour market flexibilization.
Incentives to human capital accumulation.
Competition in the offer of merit goods.
Priority to digital communication and investment in connectivity.
Protection and valuation of agro and landscape potential.
It also takes into consideration three other structural uncertainties (specific to Portugal):

30. 30
Liberalization and innovation in infrastructural sectors.
Type of internationalisation infrastructures.
Real estate market diversification.
These last uncertainties are crucial for future activities and space occupation patterns.
We formulated two evolution hypotheses for each uncertainty, keeping control over the
number of configurations.
Figure 11: A Structure to Think About LMA’s Future
On-going
Globalisation
Crisis and/or
Transformation
of the
Financial
System
Reduction of
External
Transfers
Budget
Strictness
Population
Ageing
Families Income and
Patrimony
immigrant
Integration
Employment Volume
and Type
Financial Assets
Acquisition
Industrial
Investment
Attraction
Public Investment
Level
Tertiary
Internationalisation
Urban Construction
Pace and
Localization
Liberalization and
Innovation in
Infrastructural
Sectors
Fiscal Competition
Capacity
Protection of Agro
and Environment
Potentialities
Digital Investment Internationalisation
Infrastructures
Incentives to
Human Capital
Accumulation
Labour Market
Flexibilization
Reform of the
Social Protection
Systems
Competition on
the offer of “merit”
goods
Diversification of
the Real Estate
Market

31. 31
2.3.3. Ways to Solve the Structural Uncertainties
Box 8 describes the two contrasted hypothesis that we have considered for LMA’s exercise
structural uncertainties (the time horizon is 2015):
Box 8: Possible Solutions for Structural Uncertainties
Social Flexibility
Hypothesis A – labour market reforms promoting the diversity of life-long labour market
insertion as well as human capital accumulation; pension system reform leading to the
creation of a mix (public and private) system with a strong capitalization pillar.
Hypothesis B – monolithic labour market and maintenance of a pension system based
in a public pillar with state managed subsidiary capitalization as well as
complementary capitalization for the most affluent sectors.
Liberalization and Innovation in Infrastructural Sectors
Hypothesis A – Liberalized Infrastructural sectors (electricity, urban transports and
telecommunications/audiovisual), strongly competitive and innovative. State
regulation secures quality.
Hypothesis B – Infrastructural sectors (electricity, urban transports and
audiovisual/audiovisual) controlled by today’s dominant companies (or their
“successors”) with low competition and innovation.
Digital Investment
Hypothesis A – Priority (in public investment as well as in incentives to private
investment) to digital organization (comparing with massive mobility investments).
Hypothesis B – Priority to public and private investment in urban mobility.
Real Estate Market Diversification
Hypothesis A – Diverse real estate market (offer of housing types adapted to different
family life cycle needs and trends concerning its dimension; incentives to house
change; strong liquidity).

32. Hypothesis B – Labour market with low diversification, only taking into account income
differences (strong impulse for temporary gaps between offer and solvent demand).
Internationalisation infrastructures
Hypothesis A – Internationalisation infrastructures valuing LMA’s South (new airport near
Rio Frio and Lisbon-Madrid high speed train passing trough LMA’s South). North-South
axis not passing through Lisbon (building of a new bridge at the North of Vila Franca
de Xira).
Hypothesis B – Internationalisation infrastructures valuating LMA’s North (new airport at
Ota and Lisboa-Madrid high speed train passing North of the Tagus river). North-South
axis passing through Lisbon (building of a new bridge over the Tagus estuary).
Protection of Agro and Landscape Potential
Hypothesis A – Combination of normative mechanisms of market incentives with forms
32
of municipal financing leading to LMA’s agro and environmental valuable areas
conservation.
Hypothesis B – Normative mechanisms application perverted by municipal financing
rules and landowners’ non-acceptance of losses.
2.3.4. From Uncertainties Resolution to Scenarios
Each scenario “skeleton” is a coherent combination of possible solutiond for structural
uncertainties (one “solution” for each uncertainty). Here, we develop three “skeletons” and
their scenarios but other solutions remain available for possible future exploration. The three
mentioned combinations are:
The extreme combinations, i.e. those with either all hypotheses A or all hypotheses B.
One of the middle combinations, i.e. one that includes some A’s and some B’s.
Table 2 identifies these combinations:

33. HYPOTHESES A HYPOTHESES B
Competition and Innovation Competition between giants
Digital Investment Investment in digitalisation Heavy investment in mobility
Real Estate Market
Diversification and liquidity Monolithic with regular crisis
Diversification
Valorisation of LMA’s South Valorisation of LMA’s North
“Green” and market Norms and evasions
Scenario 3
33
Table 2: Chosen Combinations of Possible Solutions for Structural Uncertainties
STRUCTURAL
UNCERTAINTIES
Social Flexibility Flexibility Rigidity
Liberalization of
infrastructural sectors
Internationalisation
Infrastructures
Protection and Valuation of
Environment Potential
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
After choosing the combinations we explore the interactions between its elements. All
scenarios must indicate:
Which activities are more likely to develop in the LMA (according to the way certain
general and specific14 uncertainties15 are “solved” in the scenario).
What space occupation pattern16 will be more likely to appear.
Boxes 9, 10 and 11 present three scenarios for 2015 LMA:
14 Specific to certain activities.
15 Linked to attractivity conditions.
16 Intensity and type of urbanization, localization of different types of activities, natural and
environmental resources valuation, etc..

34. 34
Box 9: Scenario 1 – Complete Change
Portugal embarked in several significant reforms that increased social flexibility allowing
cost reduction for companies without drastic augmentation of citizens’ instability.
Today, the real estate market is only available for large players. It is much more diversified
in terms of product adaptability to different types of families and their life cycle needs.
Housing and urban quality has improved and the market has more liquidity. LMA’s
landscape richness was maintained by the creation of a trade exchange for land in
ecological areas as well as by the change of municipalities own revenues (from town
property taxes to a parcel of the local VAT).
Portugal liberalized the universities system, promoting Portuguese universities integration in
large Anglo-Saxon university conglomerates.
It also put forward infrastructural sectors liberalization, reducing these services supply costs
and multiplying innovative business actors (both in terms of business models and activities).
These evolutions, particularly, lead to an intense investment in telecommunication/Internet
with a large diffusion of broadband services to businesses and families.
Portugal opted for one large investment in internationalisation transport infrastructures: a
new international airport. This airport works 24 hours a day and has capacity to receive
simultaneously four of the largest long-range planes (A480). However, it still has expansion
capacity. This airport is located South of Tagus river, articulated with the only high-speed
train line in Portugal (Lisbon-Badajoz-Madrid).
Structural reforms, new airport, telecommunications and Internet diffusion, high quality
housing availability, amenities and tourism infrastructures (golf, marinas and casinos):
Attracted a large number of European and American companies that installed in the
LMA their back office, training centres, RD and/or advanced production units. They
largely beneficiated from a strong connection between Portuguese universities and
some of the best world universities. Pharmacy/health and communications/multimedia
sectors developed very quickly.
Had a large contribution to the transformation of the South of Tagus area into a high
profile touristic zone (with special focus on residential tourism).

35. 35
Box 10: Scenario 2 - A Real Estate Problem
Portugal embarked in several significant reforms that increased social flexibility, allowing
cost reduction for companies without drastic augmentation of citizens’ instability.
It also took forward infrastructural sectors liberalization, reducing these services supply costs
and multiplying innovative business actors (both in terms of business models and activities).
These evolutions, particularly, lead to an intense investment in telecommunication/Internet
with a large diffusion of broadband services to businesses and families.
Portugal authorized foreign universities installation. Today, these universities fully compete
with national one (both private and public).
However, it was impossible to change the real estate sector functioning in terms of:
The required dimension of the players17.
The articulation between house savings and private pension savings.
Municipalities’ own revenues.
Real estate/tourism remained the sectors with higher growth rates. However, they suffered
periodical tertiary and housing overcapacity crisis.
Portugal maintained its option for a new Iberian “regional airport” at Ota and the priority
for the network of high-speed train lines.
Structural reforms, telecommunications quality, Internet diffusion and existing amenities
attracted a number of European and American companies that installed in the LMA their
back office, training centres as well as some RD and/or advanced production units. They
beneficiated from the new engineering colleges.
Irregular urban growth continued and spread throughout the West and parts of Ribatejo
(territory that gained value following the new airport construction at the North of Lisbon
and its increased proximity to the capital brought by the coordination between the new
airport and the high-speed train network).
The littoral North of Roca cape and the Alentejo littoral were subject to enormous building
pressure, which was impossible to control. This pressure lead into landscape destruction
phenomena similar to those of Algarve some decades ago.
17 Namely of those that are responsible for new urban areas promotion and large urban requalification
operations.

36. 36
Box 11: Scenario 3 - Resistance to Change
Portugal was unable to reach an internal consensus leading to significant structural reforms.
Focus on maintaining national champions with external projection stopped liberalisation
processes that could hinder those companies’ market share and rentability. Meanwhile,
these companies were integrated in European groups.
Portuguese university system remained closed to foreign universities but the country paid
special attention to the attraction of multinationals RD and design centres.
However, it was impossible to change the real estate sector functioning in terms of:
The required dimension of the players18.
The articulation between house savings and private pension savings.
Municipalities’ own revenues.
Real estate/tourism remained the sectors with higher growth rates. However, they suffered
periodical tertiary and housing overcapacity crisis.
Portugal maintained its option for a new Iberian “regional airport” at Ota and the priority
for the network of high-speed train lines.
Irregular urban growth continued and spread throughout the West and parts of Ribatejo
(territory that gained value following the new airport construction at the North of Lisbon
and its increased proximity to the capital brought by the coordination between the new
airport and the high-speed train network).
The littoral North of Roca cape and the Alentejo littoral were subject to enormous building
pressure, which was impossible to control. This pressure lead into landscape destruction
phenomena similar to those of Algarve some decades ago.
Some European and American companies installed, in the LMA, back office and training
facilities. These facilities are situated in urban poles where European communication
companies organized advanced communication “islands”.
18 Namely of those that are responsible for new urban areas promotion and large urban requalification
operations.

37. 37
Final Remark
This text started by identifying the most important trends for the future attractivity,
competitiveness and prosperity of the places. After that, it analysed expected global
changes in places’ activities, attractivity conditions as well as potential resident population.
As mentioned earlier, this method includes a third part dedicated to Strategy. This part (not
presented here) consists, basically, in:
Choosing the path for the place.
Choosing where should local authorities focus their efforts.
Defining the desirable actors’ game.

38. Annex A: Related Works Published by DPP’s Foresight Unit19:
38
“Focus on Future”:
Nr. 3: “Portugal: Territorial and Activities Foresight”, May 2004
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro3.pdf).
Nr. 2: “European Regions with Knowledge Based Economies”, September 2003
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro2.pdf).
Nr. 1: “FDI – Activities, Investors and Areas of Attraction / Finland – Road to the Top /
Globalisation, Growth and Property Poles – the Belgium case / Spain – the Latin America
Expansion”, January 2003 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro1.pdf).
and
“Portugal, the Littoral and the Globalisation”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, Manuela Proença20,
Isabel Marques and Joana Chorincas, Lisbon, DPP, 2003
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Portugal_litoral_globalizacao.pdf).
“The European Regions and the Innovation and Knowledge-based Sectors”, José M. Félix
Ribeiro and Isabel Marques, Lisbon, DPP, 2003
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Regioes_Europeias.pdf).
“The Internationalisation of the Portuguese Economy in the 90's”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, in
Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.9 (special number), 2003, pp. 69-85
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista03_esp/Internacionalizacao.pdf).
“The Infrastructural Sectors in the Internationalisation of Portuguese Economy”, Carlos
Nunes, in Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.9 (special number), 2003, pp. 147-220
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista03_esp/Sectores_infraestruturais.pdf).
“Regional Dynamics in Portugal. Demography and Investments”, Joana Chorincas, Lisbon,
DPP, 2003 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Dinamicas_regionais.pdf).
19 Only Portuguese versions are available at the moment.
20 Director of DPP’s Macroeconomics Unit.

39. 39
“Portugal 2015 - Internationalisation of Portuguese Economy. A Prospective Approach”,
José M. Félix Ribeiro, Lisboa, DPP, 2002 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Portugal2015.pdf).
“Identification of Successful and Knowledge-based Regions in Europe”, José M. Félix Ribeiro
and Isabel Marques, in Informação Internacional, 2002, pp. 261-309
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Infint02/VII1.pdf).
“Regional Economic Development within European Community. An explanation using
clusters analysis”, Joana Chorincas, in Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.8, 2002, pp. 101-131
(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista02/Clusters.pdf).
Clusters and Innovation Policies – Concepts, European Experiences and Perspectives of its
use in Portugal”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, Joana Chorincas and Isabel Marques, in Prospectiva
e Planeamento, vol. 7, 2001, pp. 43-104 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Clusters.pdf).

40. About the Team
José M. Félix Ribeiro (felix@dpp.pt) is Sub Director General of the Department of Foresight and
Planning (Portuguese Ministry for Towns, Local Administration, Housing and Regional Development)
since 1995 and coordinates the Foresight team of the same department. Born in 1948 at Lisbon, he
graduated in Economics in 1971. During his career he also worked for the Cabinet for Basic Studies
in Industrial Economics (GEBEI; 1972-1986 – work done in the area of Industrial Economics and
International Specialization) and for the National Council for Scientific and Technological Research
(JNICT; 1986–1994: responsible for the Studies and Planning Division with coordination of the
preparatory works for and negotiation of the structural programmes in the CT field: CIÊNCIA;
STRIDE e PRAXIS XXI). He also worked with the Portuguese Secretary of State of Planning (1986–1994:
works in the field of International Economics and Development Strategy) and coordinated the
teams that prepared the Strategic Options documents for the Portuguese Regional Development
Plans 1994-1999 and 2000-2006. He has numerous publications in the fields of Regional and
Territorial Foresight (among others).
Paulo de Carvalho (paulo@dpp.pt) is a member of DPP’s Foresight Unit since 1999. His main areas
of work are Technology and Futures Studies methodologies. Born in 1969 at Lisbon, he graduated in
Economics in 1994 (Lisbon University). He concluded a Master in Economics and Management of
Science and Technology (Lisbon University) in 1997 and a Master in Foresight and Strategy
(Portuguese Institute for Financial and Fiscal Studies) in 1998. During his career he also worked for
the Portuguese Institute for Innovation in Training (INOFOR, 1996 - 1999). He has several publications
in the fields of Economy of Technology and Foresight.
António Alvarenga (antonio@dpp.pt) is a member of DPP’s Foresight Unit since 2000. His main areas
of work are European Affairs and Futures Studies methodologies. Born in 1974 at Viseu, he
graduated in Economics in 1997 (Oporto University). In 1999 he concluded the Master of Arts in
European Economic Studies (College of Europe, Bruges) and presently prepares his final
dissertation for a Master in Strategy (Lisbon University). During his career he also worked for Pepsico
(1997-1988), the European Parliament (Brussels, 1999), Guarda Polytechnic Institute (assistant
teacher of Macroeconomics, 2000), the Portuguese Institute for Employment and Training (IEFP,
2000) and the Portuguese Investment Agency (API, 2003–2004). He has several publications in the
fields of European Studies and Foresight.
We would like to thank Helena Cordeiro and Daniel Alvarenga for their insights and help with this
40
English version.

41. 41
For More Information
José M. Félix
Ribeiro
+351.213935327
felix@dpp.pt
Carlos
Figueiredo
+351.213935311
cmfigo@dpp.pt
Paulo de
Carvalho
+351.213935301
paulo@dpp.pt
António
Alvarenga
+351.213935371
antonio@dpp.pt
Direcção de Serviços de Prospectiva – Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento
(Ministério das Cidades, Administração Local, Habitação e Desenvolvimento Regional)
Avenida Dom Carlos I, 126 – 4º frente
1249-073 Lisboa Portugal
 DPP (MCALHDR), 2004