1. Newtok, Alaska
The Effects of Climate Change on One Alaskan Village
Compiled by Chris Zerr
GIS 290 – July 23, 2015
2. Project Statement
Newtok is only one of many towns in Alaska that are being forced to
relocate because of increasing temperatures in the Arctic and sub-Arctic
region.
My plan for this project was to study Newtok, Alaska and the disintegration
of the land beneath the town caused by changes in our climate. I wanted
to track temperature increases for the area and the erosion of the island
over time. I, also, wanted make a study of the new site for the town to see
if it will be more sustainable than the current location.
4. Some Background
The Qaluyaarmiut, or “dip net people” are the people who inhabit Newtok
and Nelson Island, while the group specific to Newtok are known as the
Yup’ik.
These people, like most native Alaskan peoples, were migratory in their
lifestyles, following the fish and game upon which they depended for food
and trade.
In the 1950’s, the Alaskan government decided all children needed to
attend school. After some debate, Newtok was chosen as the site for the
Yup’ik school which was then built in 1958.
Despite having the school, the Yup’ik were still somewhat migratory using
the area surrounding the school as a winter camp.
During the 1970’s an airstrip, clinic, and modern housing provided by HUD
were completed bringing the migratory lifestyle of the Yup’ik to an end.
Newtok is located within the boundaries of the Yukon Delta National
Wildlife Refuge on the soggy, lowland plain of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta,
which is one of the largest river deltas in the world. This entire region is
dotted with small rivers, sloughs, ponds, and lakes.
5. Gathering Data: Maps
The first place I looked was at the US Census Bureau for TIGER line files showing
places, and hoping to find some historical data. I found line files for US Places
dating back to 1980 and a link to a site that should have had more historical
data. When I followed that link there was a page stating the site had been
removed.
The next site I found was http://www.alaskamapped.org/ortho, but their
images did not include Newtok nor Mertarvik.
I tried to find some free DEM’s or DRG’s of the area from GeoComm, which is a
site I have used extensively in the past, but none of the Alaska data was free
and I could not afford to purchase their data.
From WeoGeo, the Trimble Data Marketplace, I was able to find Topo Quads in
GeoTiff format.
At http://satellite.somemaps.com/ I found satellite images that I could
download, but, as it turned out, the images were from Google and could only
be downloaded as non-georeferenced .png files.
6. Gathering Data: Weather Data and
Other Documents
The primary data I wanted to gather was historical weather data as a means to
track temperature changes. I found data at the NOAA.gov, but could not find
the key piece for which I was looking: Number of days per year when the
temperature was above freezing. I was able to find data on the mean,
minimum, and maximum temperatures from 1925 to 2014 for the Bethel weather
station, which is 97 miles East of Newtok. There was no data for Newtok proper.
Continuing my search for data on Newtok, I found the Newtok Planning Group
page which is part of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and
Economic Development, Community and Regional Affairs site: Planning and
Land Management. This site had many of the charts and maps that I was
looking for, but no raw data with which to work, and no actual weather data.
On the Newtok Planning Group page I found Sally Russell Cox, Division of
Community and Regional Affairs, Department of Commerce, Community, and
Economic Development listed as the person to contact for more information.
Upon initial contact, she seemed interested in my project, but did not reply
when I requested raw data for my project.
7. Working with the data
The first data with which I elected to work
was the WestCoastMonthlyHistorical.txt
file, which was a comma delimited file
showing average precipitation, monthly
mean temperatures, monthly low temps
and monthly high temps. Unhappy with
my first attempt to work with this data, I
started over. My first attempt to make a
chart showing the monthly data failed
because Excel is limited to working with
only 255 data points. To make the data
easier to work with, I copied it and placed
the information from each decade on a
separate worksheet, then placed blank
lines between the years, color coded the
temperature ranges, and created
averages for each of the different data
types.
StateCodeDivision YearMonth PCP TAVG TMIN TMAX
50 2 1925/01 0.39 -11.1 -18.5 -3.6
50 2 1925/02 0.36 -4.7 -12.3 2.9
50 2 1925/03 1.52 10.7 3 18.4
50 2 1925/04 0.61 21.1 12.9 29.3
50 2 1925/05 0.86 37.2 28.5 45.9
50 2 1925/06 1.31 49.4 39.3 59.4
50 2 1925/07 2.51 53.3 43.6 62.9
50 2 1925/08 2.44 53 43.8 62.2
50 2 1925/09 5.38 44.4 39.3 49.4
50 2 1925/10 2.67 35.2 30.5 40
50 2 1925/11 1.8 16.1 10.9 21.4
50 2 1925/12 0.86 1.2 -6.2 8.6
1.725833 25.48333 17.9 33.06667
50 2 1926/01 1.08 11.9 6.1 17.7
50 2 1926/02 0.16 -0.6 -6.8 5.6
50 2 1926/03 0.52 19.2 12.2 26.2
50 2 1926/04 0.71 27.3 19.1 35.5
50 2 1926/05 0.85 37.3 28.5 46
50 2 1926/06 0.62 52.7 41.9 63.4
50 2 1926/07 1.81 54.4 45.4 63.5
50 2 1926/08 2.48 53.2 44.6 61.8
50 2 1926/09 3.6 47.1 41.2 52.9
50 2 1926/10 1.37 31.6 25.1 38.2
50 2 1926/11 1.03 22.1 17 27.2
50 2 1926/12 1.17 -0.2 -6.2 5.8
1.283333 29.66667 22.34167 36.98333
8. Building Charts
I compiled the yearly averages back to the first page of the worksheet, and
then worked with several different chart options settling on scatter point charts
to show the changes in yearly mean temperature, yearly low and yearly high.
I then combined all three into a single chart. While the trend is slight, you can
see that the temperatures have been increasing slightly over time. Again, this
data is for Bethel, which is 97 miles East of Newtok, but the nearest weather
station to the location. While the weather in Newtok may not be identical to
Bethel, the trends at Bethel would be reflected in Newtok.
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Combined High, Mean, Low
Mean Low High
9. Building Maps
My next project was to create some maps showing permafrost data and
tracking the erosion that was taking place in Newtok.
I was unable to find historical data concerning the permafrost, but using
ArcGIS Online, I found a layer file titled Jorgenson Permafrost Extent 2008
showing the different levels of permafrost and glaciers in Alaska. For some
reason, my copy of ArcMap decided it did not want to download base
maps, so I found another file on ArcGIS Online titled World Shaded Relief
Map to use as a base.
For this first map, I used the shaded relief map as a base overlaying a
slightly transparent version of the permafrost map and narrowed the scope
to the Newtok and Mertarvik areas.
10. As can be seen
in this map, both
Newtok and the
new village of
Mertarvik are in
regions where
the permafrost
extent is now
considered
“Sporadic”
being listed as
between 10-
50%. It is, also,
visible that
Mertarvik is
located at a
higher elevation
than Newtok.
11. Tracking Erosion
While there was a ready made map on the Newtok Planning Group
website for this, I wanted to try building my own. It was not until I went into
Google Earth that I was able to find historical maps via the time slider in
which I could compare the shore line across time.
The historical maps only went back as far as 2004 and only as recent as
2012. The 2004 satellite image was unusable, so I began with 2005, drawing
a line following the coast of the island. At each successive image, I drew a
line following the coast.
Once the lines were drawn, I went back and downloaded .jpg’s of the
entire island shoreline, then images showing just the coast along the village.
The Newtok Planning Group did have a map that I am including in this
series showing the extent of a flood that took place on September 22, 2005.
12. Effects of Erosion
In 1996, enough land had eroded to connect a bend in the Newtok River
to the Ninglick, turning the portion of the Newtok River that went around
the village into a slough and removing a land barrier between the Ninglick
River and the village. This erosion cost the village its old landfill, stopped the
flow of honey-bucket waste away from the village, and created
navigational issues for barges bring fuel and other supplies to the village.
The new landfill is across the river on Nelson Island and only accessible at
high tide.
In 2005, erosion finally destroyed the dock where barges offloaded fuel and
supplies.
Thanks to a lack of indoor plumbing and inadequate potable water,
Newtok was listed as having one of the highest rates of lower respiratory
tract infections in infants in the state in 2006. 29% of the village infants were
hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia
and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) between 1994 and 2004.
22. Erosion Comparison 1954 to 2015
The most dramatic comparison of the erosion taking place came when I was
able to overlay the 1954 D7 and D8 region Topo Quads over the World
Imagery satellite image downloaded from ArcGIS Online and last updated in
2015. In the topo quads, you can see that the Newtok River did not connect
with the Ninglick River until it reached its end west of Newtok. In the satellite
image, it is clearly visible that erosion has now connected the two rivers east of
Newtok turning the land on which the village sits into an island.
23.
24. These photos were taken from a helicopter during a site visit on July 18, 2013
by the Innovative Readiness Training Program (IRT)
The building with the dark blue roof is the
school. Above, the Ninglick River is on the left.
To the right, is a large part of the village and the
Newtok River to in the top, right corner. The
Ninglick River is obscured by a portion of the
helicopter in the lower right corner.
25. Moving to Mertarvik
Newtok is moving and the new site of the village is called Mertarvik.
Mertarvik is located on Nelson Island at a slightly higher elevation than
Newtok.
In 2007, Golder Associates Inc presented their finding from a study of the
Geology and Hydrology of the new town site. They found the area to be
made up of eight to 20 basalt flows that slope gently to the east and
northeast with a combined depth of 200 ft. and recommended 3 sites at
which to drill for water.
A barge dock has been built, there is now a road leading to a quarry, at
least three houses have been built, and construction of an Emergency
Evacuation Center as of 2014
Per my contact with Sally Russell Cox, construction continues, but it is slow
going.
26. New Site Location – A Bit More Stable
The new site on
Nelson Island is
about 9 miles
southeast and
across the river from
Newtok’s current
location. As seen in
this comparison of
the 1954 Topo Map
and the 2015
satellite image,
there has been little
geographic change
in this area.
