The present study estimates the impact of climatic factors on various seasonal diseases of students at DIT University Dehradun. For this, the study used experimental data based on a daily survey of patients (students) who came for treatment for various diseases in the Hospital of DIT University during December 01, 2015, to November 30, 2016. Descriptive results of the study indicate that seven different types of seasonal diseases have been observed during the aforesaid period. Estimated values of the Chi2 test provide a piece of empirical evidence that there is significant variation in various diseases across months. Thereupon, it assesses the impact of climatic factors on different types of seven diseases using the linear and non-linear regression model. Empirical results based on both models imply that climatic factors have a significant impact on various diseases of students. It provides empirical evidence on the association of climatic factors with various seasonal diseases of students. Also, this study formulates an authentic and viable empirical model to predict various diseases using marginal impact analysis techniques. It is policy-oriented research that provides conclusive suggestions to mitigate the adverse impact of climatic factors on various diseases and research directions to generalize the empirical results of this study.
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Disease Prediction Study
1. A Comparative Study of Data Mining Classification by Formulation of Empirical Models on the basis
of symtoms of an ailment.
By- Ankit Gururani
under
Prof. Ajay Kumar([Post-Doctorate (Science & Technology Entrepreneurship, DST (GoI) PRC,
Entrepreneurship Development Institute of India, Ahmedabad); PhD (Economics, IIT Indore); MPhil
(Economics, DAVV Indore)])
Abstract
The present study estimates the impact of climatic factors on various seasonal diseases of students in DIT
University Dehradun. For this, the study used experimental data based on daily survey of patients
(students) who came for treatment for various diseases in Hospital of DIT University during December
01, 2015 to November 30, 2016. Descriptive results of study indicate that seven different types of
seasonal diseases have been observed during aforesaid period. Estimated values of Chi2
test provide an
empirical evidence that there is significant variation in various diseases across months. Thereupon, it
assess the impact of climatic factors on different types of seven diseases using linear and non-linear
regression model. Empirical results based on the both the models imply that climatic factors have a
significant impact on various diseases of students. It provide an empirical evidence on the association of
climatic factors with various seasonal disease of students. Also, this study formulate an authentic and
viable empirical model to make prediction of various diseases using marginal impact analysis technique.
It is a policy oriented research which provide conclusive suggestions to mitigate the adverse impact of
climatic factors on various diseases and research direction to generalize the empirical results of this study.
Finally, it would also discover a software to make future projection of various diseases in near future.
Keywords: Climatic factors; Seasonal diseases; Diseases prediction; Empirical model; Dehradun;
Uttarakhand; India.
1. Introduction
Research Questions
• Whether climatic factors have any significant association with various seasonal diseases or not?
• How various seasonal diseases are climate sensitive?
• How researchers and health scientists can estimate the impact of climatic factors on various diseases?
• How it is possible to project future prediction of various diseases?
• What is association of climatic factors with various seasonal diseases of students of DIT University
Dehradun?
• How it is possible to mitigate the impact of climatic factors on various seasonal diseases of students
of DIT University Dehradun?
• What must be policy suggestions to reduce the negative consequences of climate change in different
months on various diseases of students of DIT University Dehradun?
Research Objectives
• To assess the various seasonal diseases of students of DIT University Dehradun using experimental
data.
2. • To estimate the association of various seasonal diseases with different climatic factors using
correlation coefficient technique.
• To examine the impact of climatic factors on various diseases using linear and non-linear regression
models.
• To estimate the projection of various diseases using Marginal Impact Analysis technique.
• To provide conclusive policy suggestions to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on various
diseases based on existing studies.
• To deliver authentic research direction to researchers and health scientists to undertake extensive
research to predict the occurrence of various diseases due to climate change in near future.
2. Review of Literature
3. Research Methodology
Data Collection Technique: Day wise information on various diseases are collected through filed
survey.
Climatic Data: IMD (GoI)
4. Formulation of Empirical Model
Univariate and Multi-variable or mixed model ()
5. Discussion on Descriptive Results
Descriptive Results
Table: Occurrence of various diseases in 12 months
Diseases/Months
Ja
n
Fe
b
Marc
h
Apri
l
Ma
y
Jun
e
Jul
y
Au
g
Se
p
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
Tota
l
Abdomen
pain/Vomiting/Stoma
ch Pain/Acidity
18 15 21 33 5 2 0 37 20 6 5 7 169
Abdomen
pain/Vomiting/Stoma
ch Pain
55 107 50 10 4 1 4 18 22 7 20 1 299
Abdomen
pain/Vomiting/Stoma
ch Pain
0 13 15 9 0 0 0 0 2 3 7 3 52
Acidity 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 6
Allergy/Fungal
Infection/Itching
3 7 6 7 1 0 2 21 35 13 6 6 107
Itching 9 9 5 6 1 0 1 10 21 7 1 0 70
Fungal
infection/Itching
9 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 20
Body pain/ body
ache/Eye and ear
infection/Tooth pain
17 13 12 16 5 0 2 16 27 30 24 3 165
Eye and ear infection 9 7 5 8 2 0 0 2 6 6 4 0 49
Tooth pain/Infection 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 2 3 5 1 0 21
Cold / Fever/Loose
Motion/Vomiting
12
3
182 104 127 20 0 44 220
13
9
14
1
92 20 1212
Fever, Pain and
Vomiting
0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 13
Vomiting/loose 17 14 8 38 7 3 3 15 19 6 7 3 140