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impact of covid19 pandemic on long term trends in the prevalence of DKA at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes.pptx
1. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2022; 10: 786–94
Published Online : October 3, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00246-7
2. • Background:
- an increased prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1
diabetes in children during the COVID-19 pandemic
-aimed to evaluate trends in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at
diagnosis of paediatric type 1 diabetes before and during the COVID-19
pandemic
- identify potential predictors of changes in diabetic ketoacidosis
prevalence during the pandemic.
4. - study population comprised
104 290 children and
adolescents
- aged 6 months to younger
than 18 years
- diagnosed with type 1
diabetes between Jan 1, 2006,
and Dec 31, 2021
- exclusion of neonatal
diabetes
- data coverage > 90%
5. Variables:
- demographic data: sex, age, month, year of clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes
and diabetic ketoacidosis status.
- diabetic ketoacidosis was defined according to the International Society for
Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes (ISPAD) criteria.
- they also used individual diabetes registries to clarify how data on diabetic
ketoacidosis was coded and how potential missing values could be interpreted.
- the absence of laboratory or clinical values was then handled accordingly:
- either as missing values
- type 1 diabetes diagnosis without diabetic ketoacidosis
6. Measures of COVID-19 severity and containment
- the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic was indirectly measured as
excess all-cause mortality in the whole population from the World
Mortality Dataset.
(Excess mortality = compares observed deaths to the deaths that are
expected in the absence of the pandemic)
- to quantify the perception of pandemic severity by individual
governments = the Stringency Index from the open access global
database of pandemic policies, the Oxford COVID-19 Government
Response Tracker (OxCGRT).
7. Results
- total: 104 290 children with new onset type 1 diabetes of which
- 87 228 diagnosed between 2006 and 2019
- 8 209 diagnosed in 2021
- 8 853 diagnosed in 2022
- 45.8% females vs 54.2% males
- median age of diagnosis = 9.5 years
- distribution:
- between 6 months - 6 years: 25.3 %
- between 6 - 12 years: 44.2 %
- between 12 - 18 years: 30.1 %
8.
9. • The rising trend of DKA was not steady throughout the study period.
- 2338 cases in 2019
10.
11.
12. • the measures of the severity of the pandemic are presented along with
the excess diabetic ketoacidosis prevalence.
• the likelihood of diabetic ketoacidosis increased with a higher
Stringency Index, with an estimated risk ratio of having diabetic
ketoacidosis per ten-unit increase in the Stringency Index of 1.037 for
2020 and 1.028 for 2021.
• the likelihood of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes
in 2020 and 2021 was not significantly associated with excess all-
cause mortality in the whole population.
13. Discussion
• significant increase in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at
diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents from 2006 to
2019, with a marked additional increase observed during the COVID-
19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
• therefore, the increase in diabetic ketoacidosis during the COVID-19
pandemic was not a short-term phenomenon restricted to the early
months of the pandemic.
• notably, a significant increase in the prevalence of diabetic
ketoacidosis at type 1 diabetes diagnosis occurred well before the
pandemic
14. Discussion
• clear increase in the prevalence of diabet ketoacidosis in 2020-2021
• the development of diabetic ketoacidosis is thought to be due to:
• delayed diagnosis
• delayed initiation of insulin replacement therapy
- Kamrath and collegues: elevated HbA1c and increase prevalence of DKA
during the pandemic
- insulin deficiency due to direct destruction of beta cells by Sars Cov2
doesn’t play an important role in children with newly onset of type 1
diabetes
15. Discussion
• the long term trend of an increasing prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis is
due to underlying mechanisms that are independent of the healthcare
• educational campaigns in raising awareness of the symptoms, screening
programmes for islet autoantibodies
• the study found a significant association between the likelihood of diabetic
ketoacidosis at type 1 diabetes diagnosis and the pandemic containment
measures, as expressed by the Stringency Index. However, the magnitude
of this association was small, which means that the contribution of the
pandemic containment measures to the excess prevalence of diabetic
ketoacidosis must be assessed as being low.
• Aditional components like fears, misperceptions might have contributed to
delayed presentation and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children during the
pandemic.
16. Discussion
• The prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis was not significantly associated
with excess all-cause mortality.
• COVID-19 did not appear to be the sole cause of the increased prevalence
of diabetic ketoacidosis. Rather, it seems that the pandemic provided the
ideal conditions to uncover pre-existing problems associated with timely
diagnosis of children with new-onset type 1 diabetes.
17. Strengths of the study:
• large number of cases from 13 countries, with most national registries
having high coverage over the 15-year study period
• the analysis covered the first 2 years of the pandemic.
• comparing the changes in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis
between these countries, each with different pandemic severities and
different pandemic control measures, better analysis of the impact of
these factors on the increase in diabetic ketoacidosis prevalence during
the COVID-19 pandemic.
18. Limitations
• the heterogeneity in the way data on diabetic ketoacidosis were coded in
the registries, with Australia and Sweden handling “no information on
diabetic ketoacidosis” as missing values
• other countries registered no information on diabetic ketoacidosis as no
diabetic ketoacidosis.
• the impact of race and ethnicity on the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis
could not be analysed because of the varying definitions for racial and
ethnic background across the 13 registries.
19. In conclusion,
• increasing trend in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis cases at diagnosis of
type 1 diabetes in children, which was increasing well before the emergence of
COVID-19 and was then further increased during the pandemic.
• comprehensive education about the classic symptoms of type 1 diabetes in
childhood needs to be provided within the general public, within those working in
the childcare or daycare sector, and among general practitioners in the primary care
setting to raise awareness of the symptoms of type 1 diabetes, and public health
interventions may also be considered, such as implementation of general screening
programmes for islet autoantibodies in preschool children.
• the rising prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in
children is a global concern that should be addressed.
Editor's Notes
- published in Lancet Diabetes Endocrinology journal, with an impact factor of 44.86
- in october 2022
The idea behind the article started from an observed increased prevalence of DKA at the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children during Covid 19 pandemic.
The purpuse of this cohort study is:
- to evaluate the trends in the prevalence of DKA at the diagnosis of paediatric type 1 diabetes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
- and to identify potential factors that changed the diabetic ketoacidosis prevalence during the pandemic.
- international multicentre study
- data from 13 national diabetes registries (Australia, Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Slovenia, Sweden, USA [Colorado], and Wales).
- study population comprised 104 290 children and adolescents aged 6 months to younger than 18 years, who were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2021
- exclusion of neonatal diabetes
- data coverage (meaning the percentage of children diagnosed in the country) was over 90% overall, with the exception of Austria (80%) and Australia and New Zealand (60%)
The absence of laboratory or clinical values was then handled accordingly:
- either as missing values (in 2752 of 11 589 individuals in Australia and in 1771 of 13 476 individuals in Sweden)
- or as a type 1 diabetes diagnosis without diabetic ketoacidosis (in the other 11 countries).
In this study they also included 2 tools to assess the the severity of gouverment measures during the pandemic:
- the first one is the excess mortality = which is the substraction between the observed deaths and expected deaths in the absence of the pandemic. Is a useful measure for assessing the total effect of the pandemic on mortality levels.
- the second tool is the Stringency index. There are several indices that provide snapshots of the intensity of government policies applied in different countries. The composite Stringency Index contains indicators of school closure, workplace closure, cancellation of public events, restrictions on gathering size, closure of public transport, stay-at-home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, restrictions on international travel, and public information campaigns.
The index on any given day is calculated as the mean score of the nine metrics, each taking a value between 0 and 100.
A higher score indicates a stricter response
It’s important to note that this index simply records the strictness of government policies
Pre pandemic:
- DKA at the moment of diagnosis = 27.3% of children
- prevalence of DKA at the moment of diagnosis is higher in females vs males,
also highest for children between 6 months and 6 years old
and it’s different between the countries : Germany 20.3% vs USA 48.4%
- the estimated mean anual increase in prevalence comparing to the previous year = +1.6%, slightest higher in males and it increases with age group
- the most pronounced increase in prevalence was in Australia, Germany, Slovenia and USA. To be noted, Italy showed a decrease in the mean anual prevalence.
The rising trend of KDA was not steady throughout the study period but it should be noted that there were 2338 cases in 2019 then 3005 cases in 2021 and 3266 in 2022
In contrast to the previous years, there were no differences in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis between female and male individuals or between age groups.
The adjusted observed prevalence of DKA at the time of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes was significately higher than the predicted prevalence for 2020 and 2021.
- 39.4% vs 32.5 in 2021
- 38.9% vs 33 in 2022
- the regression analysis done to compare the trends during the years showed an increase of 5.6% in the rate of DKA at the onset of diabetes after 2015 compared to an increase of 0.5% before 2015.
- also, the prevalence increased only in 2020 (the first year of pandemic) and not in 2021
The measures of the severity of the pandemic are presented along with the excess diabetic ketoacidosis prevalence.
the likelihood of diabetic ketoacidosis increased with a higher Stringency Index, with an estimated risk ratio of having diabetic ketoacidosis per ten-unit increase in the Stringency Index of 1·037 (95% CI 1·024–1·051; p<0·0001) for 2020 and 1·028 (1·009–1·047; p=0·0033) for 2021.
By contrast, the likelihood of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in 2020 and 2021 was not significantly associated with excess all-cause mortality in the whole population (risk ratio per ten-unit increase in mortality of 0·986 [95% CI 0·969–1·004], p=0·121, in 2020 and 0·986 [0·961–1·011], p=0·275, in 2021)
there was already an increase in the prevalence of DKA , with a marked additional increase observed during the pandemic.
therefore, the increase was an already happening trend before the pandemic
- clear increase in the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis in 2020–21, indicating an aggravation of the pre-existing increasing trend during the pandemic
the increase in prevalence was independent of the healthcare, so there are a lot of awareness campaigns that were done.
additional point: compare the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis during the pandemic years with the average prevalence in previous years, as other studies have done. Instead, we took into account the increasing trend in recent years. Additionally, we compared the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis over a whole year, whereas other studies only examined the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis over a shorter period, such as the first lockdown or the first few months of the pandemic.
