2. Issues to be addressed
1. The current context of Emerging Markets and
the evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
2. Latin America between two policy paths
3. The policy challenges in the region
4. Lessons from the Colombian Experience
3. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and
the evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
4. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
Emerging economies have become engines of economic
During the last three decades developing countries have
experienced a profound transformation driven by two
components:
On the one hand a rapid demographic
transition. Since 1980 the World population
has increased by 2.5 billion people and 95
percent of that growth has taken place in the
developing World
The other element has been a dynamic
period of sustainable economic growth. In
1980 developing economies represented 33
percent of the World GDP and today that
number is closed to 46 percent
growth
5. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
By 2050 19 of the top 30
economies by GDP will be
countries that we currently
describe as ‘emerging’
China and India will be the
largest and third-largest
economies in the world
Eight countries – India, China,
Brazil, Russia, Indonesia,
Korea, Mexico and Turkey –
will be responsible for most of
global growth up to 2025
In 1980, world exports
accounted for one-sixth of
global GDP. Today it is a
quarter. By 2030, it will have
risen to a third
In 1980, 5% of goods were
sourced globally. By 2000, this
was 20%. By 2025, it will be
50%
Emerging economies will
account for 68% of global
growth by 2030
By 2030 the urban middle
class will rise to 42% of the
global population. The number
of people with daily income of
$10 to $100 a day will rise
from 1.8 billion today to 4.9
billion by 2030
6. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
According to FAO: Demand
for food could increase 50%
by 2030
Demand for water has been
projected to rise by 30%
between 2000 and 2030
The International Energy
Agency has said energy
needs will grow by 40% by
2030
Coal share in world energy
consumption has reached
its highest level since 1970
(29.6%). China represents
49% of the world coal
consumption
Natural Gas consumption
has experience its
strongest consumption
rate since 1984 (7.4%)
According to BP China
represents 20.3% of the
World Energy
Consumption (The world
largest energy consumer
in 2010 for the first time
over the U.S.)
In 2010 Global Biofuel
consumption grew by
13.4%
7. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
Between 2003 and 2007 the region
experienced a growth average of
5%...the highest since 1967-1974
How does Latin
America fit in
this panorama?
Between 1980
and today some
changes have
occurred…
Debt is no longer a threat: Debt
to GDP ratios in the region have
passed from 40% in 2002 to
20.4% in 2011
The inflation tragedy is over:
in 1985 regional inflation
average was 159%, today is
below 6%. This means that
fiscal and monetary prudence
have become policy principles
Democracy has expanded in the
region with few exceptions…
Regional exports have
increased 160% between
2002 and 2011
In 2011 the region faced a
record number in FDI
reaching almost 160
US$billion
8. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
Policy Changes match four range of opportunities
Population
Close to 600
million people
Average age
between 24 and
28
Per Capita
Income in PPP
close to
US$10.000
Poverty
reduction
64% of our population is a
expanding middle class
During the last decade 40 million
people have left the poverty line
Life expectancy has increased
from 65 to 75 years
Child mortality has been reduced
by 50 per cent
Literacy rates are above 94%
Mobile phone penetration has
increased by 78 per cent
Internet access has increased by
33%
Healthcare coverage has
increased by 50 percent
water and sanitation coverage
has reached 80%
Commodities
in time of
Demand
10 percent of the
World oil reserves
6 percent of the World
Gas reserves
Almost 50 percent of
the World cooper
reserves
50 per cent of the
World silver reserves
13% of the World iron
reserves
26% of the World
fertile land
24% of the World beef
supply
Bio Reserves
20 per cent of the
World Biodiversity
is concentrated in
the Amazon ring
Almost 50% of the
World potable
water supply
57% of the world
primary forest
9. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
Policies have been the root of Latin American Changes
The change process and the
potential for the years ahead has
happen by accident and it is a
consequence of the consistency,
congruence and sense of urgency
that a group of countries have
adopted as their policy cornerstone
Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile,
Peru and Uruguay represent 70
per cent of the region’s
population and 75% of the
regional GDP
This group of countries have
common characteristics that
explain their outstanding
performance
The strengthening of
Liberal Democracy
A public administration
driven by results
The expansion of export
markets and the
commercial integration
with the World (FTA’s)
The construction of a
sound and sustainable
social safety net
The adoption of an
institutional
Framework in favor of
foreign and national
investment
A sound
Macroeconomic
Administration driven
by fiscal and
monetary prudence
Better regulatory
environment
Construction of
strategic
infrastructure
The consolidation of
an innovation agenda
leaded by an
improvement in
education
Today countries like
Panama, Dominican
Republic, Costa Rica,
Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Belize, Paraguay,
as well as most of the
Caribbean States, are
following that line of
behavior
A well capitalized
financial sector and
the constant
expansion of financial
services
10. 1. The current context of Emerging Markets and the
evolution of Latin America 1980-2012
Despite the changes that have been achieved some important challenges
remain…
Building Modern
Democracies
(5 parameters)
Security
Freedoms and Private
Initiative
Independent Institutions
Social Cohesion
People Participation
A dynamic
Economic
transformation
Investment Target Policies
Maintaining Fiscal and
Monetary transformation
Integrate commodity and
knowledge based
economies
Expand export markets
Create an
Entrepreneurship culture
(Innovation agenda)
Closing Social
Gaps
Improve education
(quality, coverage,
vocational)
Insure Universal
Healthcare
Formal Job creation
Access to Finance
Climate Change,
Environment
and Energy
Sustainability
Expand renewable
sources
Install an energy efficiency
conscience
Improve waste
management
Protect the Amazon Ring
Reduce Co2 Emissions
12. 2. Latin America between two policy paths
The regional current Political Map is a “Tale of two cities” like the Charles Dickens Book… (The
ALBA and the non Alba Model)
ALBA
(Leaders: Venezuela,
Ecuador, Bolivia,
Nicaragua and Cuba)
Anti-U.S
Anti-Free Trade
Lack of investment
Confidence
Weak institutions
Political Insecurity
Ideology driven
countries
Political Polarization
Modern Democratic Center Countries
(Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile, México,
Uruguay, Paraguay, Panamá, Republic
Dominican, Costa Rica, etc)
Cooperation with the U.S.
Pro Free Trade
Investment Confidence
Independent Institutions
Political Stability
State Long Term Policies
and Mgt by Results
Organized Party Systems
The Democratic Center takes the lead:
• Investment grade countries are in this Group: Mexico,
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Panama
• Countries with more market access through FTA’S are
in this group
• Countries with more FDI are in this group
• Countries with more Middle Class Expansion are in
this group
• Better fiscally sustainable social programs: Chile,
Mexico, Brasil and Colombia
Only the group of Countries in the Democratic Center
will become the regional active participants of the
Emerging Markets Boom…some of the ALBA
Members will see some benefits, but without solid
long term development agendas, they will face
transitory profits…
13. Venezuela
Inflation
Reduction in oil
production
Brain drain
Social conflict
Insecurity
Private initiative in
Jeopardy
Bolivia
Loss of citizen support
Quality of live
deterioration
Lack of private
initiative
Loss in private
investment
Ecuador
Press Liberties in
danger
Lack of long term
private investment
Political stability at the
expense of higher
tensions
Oil driven political
power
Nicaragua
Institutional deterioration
(Reelection without
constitutional authority)
Corruption
Private initiative:
Uncertainty
Shameful Chavistas
2. Latin America between two policy paths
Bad policies are deteriorating the political and economic context in the ALBA
Countries….
14. 3. The economic outlook and the
policy challenges in the region
15. 3. The 2013 economic outlook
After decelerating for two
consecutive years, Latin
American economies
accelerated growth again at
the end of 2012. Brazil’s
recovery was an engine of
performance
The 2012 experience….
The region’s growth
averaged around 3.2% in
2012 after 4.3% in 2011 and
6% in 2010
Latin America will approach
its potential rate in 2013,
remaining the world's
second best performing
region after Asia
Chile reported lower annual
growth, although the
economy reaccelerated to
rates higher than its long-term
trend because of
expansionary monetary
conditions
Colombia’s growth was
below government
expectations reaching a
4.0% level
Due to the political transition,
which generates temporary
contractions the Mexican
economy began decelerating
in the second half of the year
Brazil became the main
contributor to Latin
America’s growth reduction
in the past two years
Inflation was maintained on
target with the excepctions
of Mexico and Brazil, that
experienced marginal
increases
16. 3. The 2013 economic outlook
Argentina
The country will face risks in 2013,
although growth will improve in
comparison with 2012
Uncertainty will increase
Inflation will be around 25%
Public expenditure will be the driver of
economic growth
Central Bank will continue to be the main
source of funding for the Central
Government
Economy will grow 3.4% in 2013
Brazil
The economy experienced a small scale
recovery at the end of 2012
The recovery will strengthen in 2013,
boosted by investment for the 2014 World
Cup, as well as the fiscal and monetary
stimulus package in place
The economy will grow 5% in 2013
Chile
Monetary conditions need to be stabilized
before excess demand threatens
economic stability
Growth in 2013 will be around 4.3%
Inflation will remain on target
Source: World Bank
17. 3. The 2013 economic outlook
Mexico
The deceleration initiated at the end of 2012 will extend
over the first half of 2013, as a change in political
administration usually introduces a delay in the federal
budget and private decisions on investment
The economy will grow only 3.5% in 2013 after 3.8% in
2012
Inflation is rising
Monetary tightening could affect growth performance
Great expectations are based on the new government
reform agenda
Peru
The best performer with strong fundamentals and a
well managed mining boom
Growth will reach 5.8% in 2013
Inflation will be between 1% and 3%
Venezuela
The fiscal deficit in 2012 reached troublesome levels,
that will require cuts in 2013
Growth will be around 1.5% and 2%
Declines in the oil price could trigger a recession
Inflation will reach 30%
Source: World Bank
19. Peru
Humala Challenges
Maintain the
highest
economic
growth rate in
the region
Improve social
expenditure
targeting
Improve Labor
markets
• Combat informality
• Improve
productivity
Continue with
International
insertion
• Implement the FTA
with USA
• Pacific Agenda with
Colombia, Chile and
Mexico.
20. Argentina
Fiscal and
Monetary
Credibility
Challenges
Institutional
quality
Capacity to
generate
confidence
Lack of
FDI long
term trust
Solve Public-
Private
Conflicts
21. Security
Human
Insecurity
Legal
Insecurity
Political
insecurity
Individual
Liberties
Property rights
at risk
Limit freedom
of expression
Limit freedom
of press
Independent
institutions
Courts
controlled by
the Executive
Branch
Independent
institutions are
controlled by
the Executive
father
One Party
controls the
Parliament
Citizen
participation
Limited
Controlled
Instruments
vital for political
pressure
Social
Cohesion
Class
polarization
Fiscal policy is
unsustainable
Venezuela
22. Urban
security
Drug
consumption
Cost of money
Challenges Regional
integration
Infrastructure
Weak Doing
Business
Indicators
Foreign Policy
Brazil
23. The Challenges of Doing Business in
Brazil
Good results but there are some worriying “TO DO BUSINESS” indicators
Area: 8,514,877 sq km
Population: 203,429,773 (July 2011
est.)
GDP: $2.172 trillion (2010 est.)
GDP Composition by Sector:
Services: 67.4% (2010 est.)
Industry: 26.8%
Agriculture: 5.8%
Unemployment Rate: 6.7% (2010 est.)
Exports: $201.9 billion (2010 est.)
Export Commodities: Transport
equipment, iron ore, soybeans,
footwear, coffee, autos
Export Partners: China 12.5%, US
10.5%, Argentina 8.4%, Netherlands
5.4%, Germany 4.1% (2009)
Imports: $181.7 billion (2010 est.)
Import Commodities: machinery,
electrical and transport equipment,
chemical products, oil, automotive
parts, electronics
Import Partners: US 16.1%, China
12.6%, Argentina 8.8%, Germany 7.7%,
Japan 4.3% (2009)
Country DB 2011 DB 2010
Mexico 35 41
Peru 36 46
Colombia 39 38
Chile 43 53
Argentina 115 113
Uruguay 124 122
Ecuador 130 127
Brazil 127 124
Venezuela 172 170
Doing
Business 2011
shows some
elementes that
affect Brazil as
a destiny for
investments
(127 out of 180
in the Doing
Business
Report)
1. Bureaucracy
2. Weak Infrastructure
3. Weak Technology
4. Preference to Local Companies
5. Complex tax system
24. The Challenges of Doing Business in
Brazil
Brazil in comparison to the Region best and worst
performers
Indicator Brazil Chile Mexico Colombia Peru Venezuela
Starting a Business
(Proceadures)
15 8 6 9 6 17
Starting a Business
(Days)
120 22 9 14 27 141
Days for
Construction
Permits
411 155 105 50 188 395
Hours devoted to
pay taxes (Hours
per year)
2.600 316 404 208 380 864
Days to enforce a
contract
616 480 415 1346 428 510
Enforcing Contracts
(Cost % Claim)
16.5 28.6 32 47.9 35.7 43.7
Cost to export US$
per Container
US$
1.730
US$74
5
US$1.42
0
US$1.77
0
US$860 US$2.59
0
25. Brazil Infrastructure
challenges
Brazil’s infrastructure ranks
74th out of 133 countries,
even though its overall
economy ranks 56th,
according to a World
Economic Forum (WEF)
survey that asked firms to
rank global
competitiveness. Among
the BRIC economies,
Brazil’s infrastructure ranks
similar to India’s (76) and
Russia’s (71), but it lags
China’s (46). Within Latin
America, Brazil’s
infrastructure ranking is
near Mexico’s (69) and is
significantly better than
Venezuela’s (106), but it is
Infrastructure spending in Brazil has been in a
declining trend over the past 40 years,
averaging 5.4% of GDP during the 1970s, 3.6%
in the 1980s, 2.3% in the 1990s, and 2.1% in
the 2000s. Some studies suggest
infrastructure investment of 2.0% of GDP is
needed simply to sustain the current
infrastructure stock in Brazil
Brazil must invest 4% of GDP (doubling its
current investment) for 20 years to catch up
with Chile, the benchmark in Latin America,
according to our estimates
To catch up with South Korea — the
benchmark in Asia — Brazil would need to
invest 6–8% of GDP per year
Source Morgan Stanley
26. Brazil Infrastructure
challenges
Rethinking fiscal priorities. The government needs to redesign
spending strategies and rethink priorities by 1) addressing
budget rigidities, 2) reducing mandatory earmarking in the
budget, and 3) revisiting structural entitlements (i.e., social
Challenges
for
infrastructure
development
Improving the business
environment. Brazil needs a more
stable and credible regulatory
environment The main issues are:
1) regulatory bottlenecks, 2)
excessive renegotiations of
concessions, and 3) the lack of
efficiency of regulatory agencies
security reform)
Reforming the tax
system. The government
intake is close to 40% of
GDP, while companies
spend on average 2,500
hours per year to
prepare, file, and pay
their taxes
27. Mexico
Reform the Police
Structure
Citizen participation
in the fight against
organized crime
The security
challenge
Strengthen
intelligence
Border affairs
• Drug Consumption
• Assault Weapons
28. Chile
Two situations
Economic
Stability
Characteristics
Political
Stability
Investor
Confidence
Innovation and
entrepreneurshi
p agenda
Quality of live
and
opportunities
Dependant on
the China effect
Aggressive
protests
Youth distrust
in Political
Parties and in
Government
29. Ecuador
The political condition
Economic
4.5% Fiscal deficit
Oil price has been the
driving force
Investors distrust
4.5% inflation
Political
The President has concentrated
more powers
Since reelection and Chavez
death Correa has been moving to
a moderate attitude
There is not a clear opposition
figure
Urban security has been
deteriorating
30. Bolivia: new problems arise
Economic
Populism platform loosing
popular support
Fiscal superavit driven by more
tax collections
Economic Growth above 4.6%
driven by Gas price
Inflation close to 9%
Investors distrust with the
exception of foreign governments
corporations
Political
2/3 of Congress controlled by
the President Coalition
Hunting of all opposition
leaders
Confrontation with Santa Cruz
Governor Ruben Costas
Next week 56 Supreme Court
Judges will be elected
International
Under the influence of Chavez
Improvement in the dialogue
with the U.S.
International Market Distrust
31. Central America: The security Drama
Country Homicides
per 100K
Hab
Violence and organized crime
Violence cost as %
of GDP (Live years
lost due to
handicapped
circumstances)
Private sector losses
due to insecurity (%
sales)
Violence costs
as % of GDP
Number of
gang
members
Number of
gangs
Honduras 43 1,31% 4.5% 9.6% 36.000 112
Guatemala 45 1.43% 3.9% 7.7% 14.000 434
El
Salvador
58 1.99% 4.5% 10% 10.500 4
Nicaragua 14 0.96% 3.1% 10% 4.500 268
Costa Rica 8 0.58% 3.6% 2.660 6
Panamá 11 0.63% 2.5% 1.385 94
32. Not the same stories
A region of different
development stories
The 7 giants (Brazil, Mexico,
Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru
and Uruguay)
a) 70 of the Region population.
b) 85% of the Region GDP
c) Poverty reduction
d) High levels of investment
e) Commercial integration
f) Institutional stability
Central America
a) 3% of the Region GDP
(US$163 Billion)
b) 7% of the Region population
(43 million)
c) Income inequality
d) Moderate investment levels
e) Low tax collections
f) Fragile energy matrix
Caribbean
a) 4% of the Region Population
b) 2% of the Region GDP
c) Tourism dependence
d) Natural disaster risks
e) Low industrial base
f) Need for long term access to
markets
33. The China effect…
China is the destination for 10% of LatAm exports today, and is the
largest trade partner for Brazil and Chile. LatAm was also the largest
recipient of announced Chinese outbound investment in 2010, focused
on energy and mining
Country China
Ranking as
a trading
partner
Porcentage
of total
exports
2011
Brazil 1 15%
Mexico 4 2.2%
Colombia 3 6.2%
Chile 1 16%
Peru 2 16%
Venezuela 2 7.9%
China’s influence as a trading
partner will continue to
increase, thus strenghthening
its political and diplomatic
relations with the regional
key players…
34. U.S-Latin America relations
The evolution of U.S Latin America Relations…from Doctrines to specific
policies…
Doctrines
Monroe Doctrine
Teddy Roosevelt “BIG STICK”
Howard Taft “Pan-American Union”
FDR “Good Neighbor”
Ike Pan American Operation
Alliance for Progress
Carter “Human Rights Agenda”
Reagan Regional Cold War
Bush “War on Drugs” and trade
Clinton “NAFTA” & “FTAA”
Objectives
Protect the region from foreign invasions and strengthen the U.S
influence in the hemisphere
Exercise strategic control of the region applying hard power
(Military interventions in Nicaragua, DR, Haiti, etc)
Build and institutional and permanent diplomatic coordination
under the U.S Leadership
Regional support for World War II and coordination to face the
Great Depression
Improve development assistance to prevent social turmoil
(Creation of the IDB)
Improve development assistance to prevent the communist
expansion.
Promote Human Rights policies to confront the emerging power of
dictatorships in the region
Intervention in Nicaragua, Grenada and Panama
Fight against Drug Cartels in the region concentrated in Colombia,
promotion of NAFTA and Unilateral Trade Preference Act
Enactment of NAFTA, promotion of the FTAA (1993) and the
Andean Trade Preference Drug Enforcement Act
Policies
Bush Vs Obama and the FTA’s… (Next slide)
35. U.S-Latin America relations
Two administrations and its strategic approaches…
Bush:
1. FTA’s with Chile, Colombia, Peru,
Panama, CAFTA, DR
2. Actively supported the fight
against terrorism in Colombia
3. Promoted the Democratic Charter
in the OAS (Signed in Lima
September 11 2001)
4. Politicaly confronted anti-democratic
regimes in the region
5. Stablished the Millenium
Corporation.
6. Debt Relief for Bolivia, Nicaragua,
Honduras, Haity and Guyana
Obama:
1. FTA’s with Colombia and
Panama took almost 3 years to
be ratified.
2. Actively supported the fight
against terrorism in Colombia
3. Political diplomacy with anti-democratic
regimes in the
region.
4. Timid speech against Drug
Cartels in the region
5. Cautious attitude towards the
security crisis in Mexico and
the U.S share of responsibility
37. Ten years ago Colombia was a fragile state…
The Colombian Paradox: a long and stable democracy in a permanent
threat from terrorist groups, drug dealers and organized crime…
Security
28.837 homicides
2.882 kidnappings
69 homicides per 100.000 habitants
1.645 terrorist attacks
350 mayors out of their
municipalities
158 municipalities without police
Economy
Average Economic Growth 1994-
2001: 2.1%
GDP per Capita: US$2.377
Investment as % of GDP: 16.5%
Exports: US$11.975 million
FDI: US$2.100 million
Inflation: 6.99%
Fiscal balance: -3.2%
Social
Unemployment: 16.2%
Health Coverage: 25 million
Colombians
Pension affiliates: 4.5 million
Poverty: 57%
Education Coverage: Primary 97%,
High school: 57%, University: 24%
Mobil Phone Lines: 4.6 million
Internet coverage: 1.9 million
38. Building Confidence became our
Colombia faced a Confidence
Deficit
The elusive quest for peace
Many governments exhausted
all their political capital
attempting to reach peace
through political dialogue…the
result was military
strengthening from illegal
armed groups and a rapid
growth in their criminal
activities (68% thought the
country was going in a
negative track)
Terrorist Groups (Guerrillas
and Paramilitaries) had
created a sense of defeat in
the Colombian people
Fear impacted in the
Colombian people Mindset
The lack of investment
The drain of human capital
The sense of danger in
Colombian roads
The expansion of massive
kidnappings created an
emotional domino effect
priority
39. We introduced a comprehensive policy
framework…
Social
Cohesion
Investment
with
fraternity
Democratic
Security
Confidence
Security as a Democratic Value
Security for
all
Confront all
criminal
organizations
Security
without
martial law
Security with
freedoms and
human rights
protection
Security in
coordination
with the
people
Investment Target
Security:
Human
Legal
Political
Sound
Macroeconomics
Incentive
s
Access to
markets
Competitiveness
factors:
• Infrastructure
• Regulation
• Connectivity
• Logistical chain
Social Cohesion
Highest quality
in education
Universal
healthcare
Access to
Finance
Stable Jobs
and
entrepreneurial
spirit
Connectivity
40. Our policy achievements generated a turning
point
Indicator 2002 2010
Homicides 28.838 7.400
Kidnappings 2.882 123
Homicides per
100K Habitants
69 16.3
Terrorist
attacks
1.645 250
Municipalities
without
mayors
presence
350 0
Municipalities
without police
158 0
Indicator 2002 2010
Average
Economic
Growth
2.1% 4.3%
GDP per
Capita
2.377 5.300
Invest %
GDP
16.5% 24.6%
Exports US$
11.000
US$
39.000
FDI US$
2.100
US$ 7.000
Inflation 6.9% 2.5%
Indicator 2002 2010
Unemployment 16.2% 11.6%
Health
Coverage
25.1 million 43.1
million
Pension
affiliates
4.5 million 7.1
million
Poverty 57% 38%
Education
coverage
(Primary, Hs,
University)
97%
57%
24%
100%
79.4%
35.5%
Mobile phone
users
4.6 million
lines
41
million
lines
• Reached the highest economic growth in
more than 20 years
• The largest education, health and
connectivity coverage in its history
• The largest poverty reduction in Colombian
history
• The biggest FDI rates in history
• The lowest violence records in 30 years
• Expanded the middle class
• Highest exports in Colombian
History
• Paramilitary groups dismantled
• FARC structure severely
dismantled
• Per Capita income more than
doubled
41. Colombia’s current
challenges
Security
Maintain Macro-Vision and
Micro-Management
Continue dismantling all
terrorist organizations
Continue dismantling drug
cartels apparatus
Strengthen Citizen Security
agendas with local
authorities
Economic
Face new trends of
currency appreciation
Maintain and increase FDI
flows (Security, incentives
and stability rules)
Fiscal Policy to face new
countercyclical challenges
Increase tax collections
Expand new trade markets
through FTA’s
Social
Cohesion
Fight labor informality and
create quality jobs
Insure education and health
quality
Expand vocational training
coverage
Create Entrepreneurial
Family Transfers program
Political
Judicial reform
Strengthen Democratic
Center
Improve local institutional
capacity
New law implementation
(Victims and land)
Prevent the emergence of
populist movements
42. Peace talks in Colombia
1. Defining peace:
Colombian National Seal has two important concepts: Liberty
and Order
A peaceful country requires the right exercise of individual
liberties and a general environment of institutional and social
order
In 2002 Colombia lacked both Concepts:
28.000 homicides
2800 Kidnappings
1645 terrorist attacks
350 Municipalities without majors
Our Democratic Security Policy was built to restore
institutional order and protect the exercise of individual
liberties. It was a policy for peace not a policy for war. The
great evidence is that by 2010 homicides were reduced
50%, kidnappings 80% and terrorist attacks by 90%
43. Peace talks in Colombia
2. Our Democratic Security Policy was based on Strong
Hand and Big Heart
We conceived Universal Demobilization for all members of illegal
armed groups
We confronted all illegal armed groups with the same
determination and open the door for peace processes. Under
clear conditions defined in the Peace, Truth and Reparation Law
The peace process with AUC was based on:
Cease of illegal activities
International verification (OAS)
Incarceration
Anyone who did not cooperate or continued with illegal activities will
lose the privileges and be extradited if any extradition request existed
No eligibility for those accused for crimes against humanity or crimes
different than political delinquent practices
44. Peace talks with FARC
Prevent Big Failures today:
Negotiation without seizure of criminal activities
Negotiating Policy with weapons on the table clearly
affects Colombian Democratic Values
Allowing political participation to individuals
responsible for crimes against humanity is a wrong
message for our democracy
No imprisonment
Allowing dictatorial regimes that affect liberties and
support FARC, as guarantors is a bad signal
45. Peace talks in Colombia
The trust agenda with FARC
The Government has consistently leaded an agenda to build
negotiation mode with FARC. The agenda includes:
Tolerance with the Chavez regime (calling him a cause of
regional stability and dropping our denouncements at the OAS)
Drop of the US-Colombia military cooperation agreement
Declaring an armed conflict in Colombia
Passing a victim legislation that not only equals military officers
with terrorists but also bails out by the state the reparation
responsibility from FARC and other groups
Land Reform
Peace Framework Constitutional Amendment
Drug legalization proposal
Including Cuba in the Summit of the Americas
Abandoning any ideological or political link with the platform
from our administration
46. Peace talks in Colombia
The Peace process that I would support:
What Colombia thinks
68% of Colombians are not willing
to pardon crimes committed by
terrorist organizations
78% of Colombians are against no
prison sanctions for terrorists
72% of Colombians are against
political participation by terrorist
groups
My opinions
No impunity for crimes against
humanity
Justice, peace and reparation
Immediate release of kidnapped
people
Unilateral cease of criminal
activities
My opinions
International verification of
disarmament
No policy agenda on the table
Reinsertion agenda
