1. THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL GOVERNANCE, POLICYTHE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL GOVERNANCE, POLICY
MEASURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ONMEASURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON
NON-FATAL MVC INJURIESNON-FATAL MVC INJURIES
Presented by:
Abdikarim Omar Hussein
GS26029
-May 2011-
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2. Background of the studyBackground of the study
 Road traffic injuries are one of the leading causes ofRoad traffic injuries are one of the leading causes of
human death and huge economic losses in the worldhuman death and huge economic losses in the world
 According to the recent World Health OrganizationAccording to the recent World Health Organization
(WHO., 2009) data : Between 20 and 50 million people(WHO., 2009) data : Between 20 and 50 million people
suffer road traffic injuries each year which about 13%suffer road traffic injuries each year which about 13%
had a subsequent disabilityhad a subsequent disability
 Hospitals spend around RM1,500 (average) per patientHospitals spend around RM1,500 (average) per patient
for treating road traffic injuries.for treating road traffic injuries.
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3. Background of the studyBackground of the study
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4. Background of the studyBackground of the study
 Recent studies have shown an inverted U-shapedRecent studies have shown an inverted U-shaped
relationship between MVC deaths and economic growthrelationship between MVC deaths and economic growth
Per capita IncomePer capita Income
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5. Background of the studyBackground of the study
 Which means deaths increase as a country develops,Which means deaths increase as a country develops,
but decline once per capita income levels havebut decline once per capita income levels have
exceeded a certain threshold level.exceeded a certain threshold level.
 This inverted -U shaped relationship is similar to theThis inverted -U shaped relationship is similar to the
Kuznets curve(1955) existed between incomeKuznets curve(1955) existed between income
inequality and per capita income.inequality and per capita income.
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6. Background of the studyBackground of the study
 However, an important missing aspect of previousHowever, an important missing aspect of previous
researches is that although they describe the inverted U-researches is that although they describe the inverted U-
shaped relationship between MVC deaths and economicshaped relationship between MVC deaths and economic
growth, there are no much studies done yet to examinegrowth, there are no much studies done yet to examine
the relationship between the economic growth and non-the relationship between the economic growth and non-
fatal MVC injuries by using cross-country panel data.fatal MVC injuries by using cross-country panel data.
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7. Objectives of the studyObjectives of the study
 In this study we examine:In this study we examine:
1.1. The empirical relationship between the MVC non-fatalThe empirical relationship between the MVC non-fatal
injuries and economic growth while controlling for otherinjuries and economic growth while controlling for other
factors known to affect road traffic safety including totalfactors known to affect road traffic safety including total
population, urban population growth, motorization,population, urban population growth, motorization,
medical care and technology etc.medical care and technology etc.
2.2. The effect of political governance and policy measures onThe effect of political governance and policy measures on
MVC non-fatal injuries.MVC non-fatal injuries.
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8. MethodologyMethodology
 Since MVC injuries are count data which are limited to non-Since MVC injuries are count data which are limited to non-
negative integer values and are positively skewed, the mostnegative integer values and are positively skewed, the most
appropriate method to analysis this type of data are countappropriate method to analysis this type of data are count
regression models such as:regression models such as:
 The Poisson model andThe Poisson model and
 The negative binomial modelThe negative binomial model
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9. MethodologyMethodology
 Therefore; In this analysis a fixed effect negative binomialTherefore; In this analysis a fixed effect negative binomial
regression technique is used to account for overregression technique is used to account for over
dispersion and heterogeneity of the data.dispersion and heterogeneity of the data.
 To normalize the effect of risk exposure on MVC non fatalTo normalize the effect of risk exposure on MVC non fatal
injuries, we specify the log population as an offsetinjuries, we specify the log population as an offset
variable in the regression model.variable in the regression model.
 The statistical software used in this analysis is STATA 9.2The statistical software used in this analysis is STATA 9.2
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10. Data source and descriptionData source and description
The main sources of data in this study are:The main sources of data in this study are:
United Nations Economic Commissioner for Europe (UNECE).United Nations Economic Commissioner for Europe (UNECE).
Royal Malaysian Police.Royal Malaysian Police.
India Department of Road Transport and Highways.India Department of Road Transport and Highways.
World Road Statistics database.World Road Statistics database.
South Africa Department of Transport.South Africa Department of Transport.
Penn World Table version 6.2Penn World Table version 6.2
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11. Data source and descriptionData source and description
•The data used in this analysis contains a Panel data of 64The data used in this analysis contains a Panel data of 64
countries at various levels of economic growth over thecountries at various levels of economic growth over the
39-year period between 1970 and 2009.39-year period between 1970 and 2009.
•The data is divided into two groups which are referred toThe data is divided into two groups which are referred to
as highly developed countries(with a HDI in 2010 of 0.82as highly developed countries(with a HDI in 2010 of 0.82
or greater) and less developed countries.or greater) and less developed countries.
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12. Data source and descriptionData source and description
The proxy for per capita income used in this study
is real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita
(US$ 2000 constant prices: Chain series). obtained
from the Penn World Table version 6.2
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13. Data source and descriptionData source and description
 The proxy for political freedom used in this study is theThe proxy for political freedom used in this study is the
index of democracy ( polity2) which measures theindex of democracy ( polity2) which measures the
degree to which a country is either democratic ordegree to which a country is either democratic or
autocraticautocratic
 It ranges from –10 (strongly autocratic) to +10 (stronglyIt ranges from –10 (strongly autocratic) to +10 (strongly
democratic).democratic).
 In this study, a country is classified as a democracyIn this study, a country is classified as a democracy
(coded as 1) if the score of the polity2 index in the(coded as 1) if the score of the polity2 index in the
Polity IV database is 4 or more. Otherwise it is classifiedPolity IV database is 4 or more. Otherwise it is classified
as autocratic (coded as 0).as autocratic (coded as 0).
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14. Data source and descriptionData source and description
 The second political variable used is the index ofThe second political variable used is the index of
Regime durability (Durable) which measures theRegime durability (Durable) which measures the
number of years since the most recent regime change.number of years since the most recent regime change.
 In calculating the DURABLE value, the first year duringIn calculating the DURABLE value, the first year during
which a new (post-change) polity is established iswhich a new (post-change) polity is established is
coded as the baseline "year zero" (value = 0) and eachcoded as the baseline "year zero" (value = 0) and each
subsequent year adds one to the value of the DURABLEsubsequent year adds one to the value of the DURABLE
variable.variable.
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15. Data source and descriptionData source and description
 Physicians per thousand population and the infantPhysicians per thousand population and the infant
mortality rate are used as a proxy for medicalmortality rate are used as a proxy for medical
care and technology improvements.care and technology improvements.
 The control variables used in this study are:The control variables used in this study are:
 The total motor vehicles per capitaThe total motor vehicles per capita
 The urban to rural population ratioThe urban to rural population ratio
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16. Data source and descriptionData source and description
Finally, this study also includes a time trend to capture theFinally, this study also includes a time trend to capture the
effect of technological improvements and othereffect of technological improvements and other
unobserved effects that vary over time and affect theunobserved effects that vary over time and affect the
number of MVC non-fatal injuries which are common to allnumber of MVC non-fatal injuries which are common to all
countries.countries.
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17. Results:Results:
Result shows that the Kuznets curve (inverted U-shaped
relationship) is present and statistically significant as
shown in this figure for all countries.
50000.0040000.0030000.0020000.0010000.000.00
Income per capita
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Trafficinjuryrate
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18. Results:Results:
The estimated results indicate that more vehicles per
capita are associated with lower MVC injuries.
Because increased vehicle ownership will lead to traffic
congestion in road infrastructure facilities and this traffic
congestion will encourage people to travel more in public
transit instead of private cars.
Traffic congestion will also lead less speeding of vehicles
which will reduce accidents.
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19. Results:Results:
The urban to rural population growth ratio is positive
and statistically significant for both highly and less
developed countries. This suggests that the congestion in
urban areas is associated with more MVC injuries.
Because uBecause urbanization will lead to an increase in conflicts
between vulnerable road users (such as bicyclists and
pedestrians) and other motor vehicle users.
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20. Results:Results:
The coefficient of infant mortality rate, a proxy for
medical technology, is positive and statistically significant.
The positive sign suggests that a lower infant mortality
rate is associated with lower MVC injuries.
The estimated coefficient for physicians per thousand
capita is positive and statistically significant, suggesting
that an increase in the ratio of per capita physicians is not
associated with fewer MVC injuries.
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21. Results:Results:
Regarding the democracy variable, it is positive and
statistically significant, which suggests that high political
democracy is associated with higher MVC injuries.
Because a more democratic type of government tends
to have slower growth of highway systems and also their
paved road systems are in slightly worse condition.
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22. Results:Results:
Also a higher level of political freedom is associated
with greater economic growth and that, in turn, would
lead to an increase in mobility and a higher demand for
transport services
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23. Results:Results:
For the regime durability variable, it is positive and
statistically significant, which suggest that high regime
durability is associated with higher MVC injuries
Because if a government stays in power for long term, it
can be associated with corruption system or misuse of
public funds which hampers to implement the necessary
road safety measures.
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24. Results:Results:
The time trend variable is negatively and significantly
associated with MVC injuries, thus indicating that other
road safety related variables such as vehicle design, road
design, driver behavior etc have changed over time.
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25. Results:Results:
ln(λit) = α0 + ln(populationit ) +β1ln(rgdpchit) +
β2 (ln(rgdpchit))2
+ β3 Iit + β4 Mit +
β5 Xit +β6 (Time)+εit
Where:
λit : the expected value of the number of MVC injuries for
country i in period t,
rgdpch: Real GDP (US$ 2000 constant prices: Chain series)
Iit : institutional variables
Mit : Medical technology and care variables
Xit : Other control variables 25

26. Results:Results:
Model A Model B Model C Model D Model E Model F
Variable Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef.
ln(RGDPCH per capita) (Less developed) 1.9*** 13.13*** 11.00*** 24.1*** 7.4*** 9.34***
(ln(RGDPCH per capita))2 (Less developed) -0.065*** -0.69*** -0.58*** -1.15*** -0.28*** -0.42***
ln(RGDPCH per capita) (Highly developed) 13.91*** 21.61*** 25.22*** 19.6*** 18.3*** 15.5**
(ln(RGDPCH per capita))2 (Highly developed) -0.7*** -1.06*** -1.27*** -0.9*** -0.82*** -0.72***
ln(Motorization) -0.77*** -1.1*** -1.1*** -0.24 -0.57***
lnmotrgdpch 0.02 0.05*** 0.02 -0.06*** -0.02
Urban to rural population ratio(less developed) 0.4*** -0.1 0.32*** 0.27***
Urban to rural population ratio(Highly developed) 0.02*** 0.004 0.01*** 0.02***
ln(physicians per capita) 4.55*** 4.7*** 3.62***
lnphysicianrgdpch -0.46*** -0.49*** -0.36***
ln(infant mortality rate) 4.7*** 1.61*** 0.88*
lninfantrgdpch -0.5*** -0.18*** -0.1**
Polity2 (Democracy index) 0.34*** 0.34***
Durable (Regime durability) 0.02** 0.007
Durablergdpch -0.001 0.0001
Year -0.015***
Constant (less developed) -26.96*** -72.29*** -61.63*** -130.5*** -51.64*** -28.52***
Constant (highly developed) -81.41*** -118.1*** -131.9*** -110.6*** -105.5*** -59.7***
Groups 64 63 63 62 62 62
N 1075 918 918 838 838 838
Log Likelihood -10775.27 -8902.64 -8971.52 -7994.72 -7825.65 -7798.5
Likelihood ratio test(Chi-square) 1259.57 1590.9 1453.16 1596.82 1934.96 1989.31
Turning point for less developed (US$) 2.25x106
13555 13132 35535 548140 67444
Turning point for highly developed(US$) 20655 26726 20520 53578 70160 47282
*significant at 10%; **significant at 5% ***significant at 1% 26

27. ConclusionConclusion
Finally, we hope and expect that the findings of this
study will be very useful source of information for the
governments and other road safety practitioners to
apply for mitigating MVC injuries.
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28. RecommendationsRecommendations
The recommendations made by this study are as
follows:
The economic growth is a significant factor of reducing
MVC injuries.
The urban population growth is a potential factor of
increasing the MVC injuries. So, it is better to segregate
vulnerable road users from motorized traffic.
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29. RecommendationsRecommendations
The vehicle population growth is good for mitigating
the MVC injuries.
The democratic political system is not good for mitigating
the MVC injuries.
The long regime durability is not good for mitigating
the MVC injuries. .
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